scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 and Rohingya Refugee Camp, Bangladesh: Uncertainty and How the Government Took Over the Situation

Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 124
Author(s):  
Md. Kamrujjaman ◽  
Md. Shahriar Mahmud ◽  
Shakil Ahmed ◽  
Md. Omar Qayum ◽  
Mohammad Morshad Alam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Refugee Camps ◽  
Humanitarian Organizations ◽  
Best Fitting ◽  
The Government ◽  
Fitting Model

Background: Bangladesh hosts more than 800,000 Rohingya refugees from Myanmar. The low health immunity, lifestyle, access to good healthcare services, and social-security cause this population to be at risk of far more direct effects of COVID-19 than the host population. Therefore, evidence-based forecasting of the COVID-19 burden is vital in this regard. In this study, we aimed to forecast the COVID-19 obligation among the Rohingya refugees of Bangladesh to keep up with the disease outbreak’s pace, health needs, and disaster preparedness. Methodology and Findings: To estimate the possible consequences of COVID-19 in the Rohingya camps of Bangladesh, we used a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) transmission model. All of the values of different parameters used in this model were from the Bangladesh Government’s database and the relevant emerging literature. We addressed two different scenarios, i.e., the best-fitting model and the good-fitting model with unique consequences of COVID-19. Our best fitting model suggests that there will be reasonable control over the transmission of the COVID-19 disease. At the end of December 2020, there will be only 169 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Rohingya refugee camps. The average basic reproduction number (R0) has been estimated to be 0.7563. Conclusions: Our analysis suggests that, due to the extensive precautions from the Bangladesh government and other humanitarian organizations, the coronavirus disease will be under control if the maintenance continues like this. However, detailed and pragmatic preparedness should be adopted for the worst scenario.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 and Rohingya Refugee Camp, Bangladesh: Uncertainty and How the Government Took Over the Situation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Kamrujjaman ◽  
MD. Shahriar Mahmud ◽  
Shakil Ahmed ◽  
Md. Omar Qayum ◽  
Mohammad Morshad Alam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Refugee Camps ◽  
Humanitarian Organizations ◽  
Best Fitting ◽  
The Government ◽  
Fitting Model

{\bf Abstract.} \\ {\bf Background:} Bangladesh hosts more than 800,000 Rohingya refugees from Myanmar. The low health immunity, lifestyle, access to good healthcare services, social-security cause this population to be at risk of far more direct effects of COVID-19 than the host population. Therefore, evidence-based forecasting of the COVID-19 burden is vital in this regard. In this study, we aimed to forecast the COVID-19 burden among the Rohingya refugees of Bangladesh to keep up with the disease outbreak's pace, health needs, and disaster preparedness. \noindent{\bf Methodology and Findings:} To estimate the possible consequences of COVID-19 in the Rohingya camps of Bangladesh, we used a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious Recovered (SEIR) transmission model. All the values of different parameters used in this model were from the Bangladesh Government’s database and the relevant emerging literature. We addressed two different scenarios, i.e., the best-fitting model and good fitting model with unique consequences of COVID-19. Our best fitting model suggests that there will be good control over the transmission of the COVID-19 disease. At the end of December 2020, there will be only 169 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Rohingya refugee camps. The average basic reproduction number ($ \mathcal{R}_{0} $) has been estimated to be 0.7563. \noindent{\bf Conclusion:} Our analysis suggests that, due to the extensive precautions from the Bangladesh government as well as other humanitarian organizations, the coronavirus disease will be under control if the maintenance continues like this. Although detailed and pragmatic preparedness should be adopted for the worst scenario.

Corrupt Practices in the Public Health Sector: A Focus on Metropolitan Local Government Areas of Kano State, Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 149
Author(s):  
Mohammed Mustapha Namadi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Healthcare Sector ◽  
Healthcare Provision ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Health Sector ◽  
The Government

Corruption is pervasive in Nigeria at all levels. Thus, despite recent gains in healthcare provision, the health sector faces numerous corruption related challenges. This study aims at examining areas of corruption in the health sector with specific focus on its types and nature. A sample size of 480 respondents aged 18 years and above was drawn from the eight Metropolitan Local Government Areas of Kano State, using the multistage sampling technique. The results revealed evidence of corrupt practices including those related to unnecessary-absenteeism, diversion of patients from the public health facilities to the private sector, diverting money meant for the purchase of equipment, fuel and diesel, bribery, stealing of medications, fraud, misappropriation of medications and unjustifiable reimbursement claims. In order to resolve the problem of corrupt practices in the healthcare sector, the study recommended the need for enforcement of appropriate code of ethics guiding the conduct of the health professionals, adoption of anti-corruption strategies, and strengthening the government monitoring system to check corruption in public health sector in order to ensure equitable access to healthcare services among the under-privileged people in the society.

scholarly journals Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ganna Rozhnova ◽  
Christiaan H. van Dorp ◽  
Patricia Bruijning-Verhagen ◽  
Martin C. J. Bootsma ◽  
Janneke H. H. M. van de Wijgert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Additional Benefit ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Time Points ◽  
School Based ◽  
Admission Data ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pandemic Wave

AbstractThe role of school-based contacts in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is incompletely understood. We use an age-structured transmission model fitted to age-specific seroprevalence and hospital admission data to assess the effects of school-based measures at different time points during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Our analyses suggest that the impact of measures reducing school-based contacts depends on the remaining opportunities to reduce non-school-based contacts. If opportunities to reduce the effective reproduction number (Re) with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and Re is still close to 1, the additional benefit of school-based measures may be considerable, particularly among older school children. As two examples, we demonstrate that keeping schools closed after the summer holidays in 2020, in the absence of other measures, would not have prevented the second pandemic wave in autumn 2020 but closing schools in November 2020 could have reduced Re below 1, with unchanged non-school-based contacts.

Funding models and expenditures with primary healthcare in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil metropolitan area

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
T Vivas ◽  
M Duarte ◽  
A Pitta ◽  
B Christovam
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Primary Healthcare ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Ministry Of Health ◽  
Healthcare Budget ◽  
Health Budget ◽  
The Public ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Government

Abstract Background The government investments in quality primary healthcare are the basis to strengthening the health systems and monitoring the public expenditure in this area is a way to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of the public health policies. The Brazil Ministry of Health changed, in 2017, the method of onlending federal resources to states and cities seeking to make the public funds management more flexible. This change, however, suppressed mandatory investments in primary healthcare. This research aims to determine the difference of expenditures on primary healthcare in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil metropolitan area before and after this funding reform, seeking to verify how it can impact the quality of primary healthcare services and programs. Methods This is an ecological time-series study that used data obtained in the Brazil Ministry of Health budget reports. The median and interquartile range of expenditures on primary healthcare (set as the percentage of total public health budget applied in primary care services and programs) of the 13 cities in the Salvador metropolitan area were compared two years before and after the reform. Results The median of expenditures on primary healthcare in Salvador metropolitan area was 25.5% (13,9% - 32,2%) of total public health budget before and 24.8% (20.8% - 30.0%) of total public health budget after the reform (-0.7% difference). Seven cities decreased the expenditures on primary healthcare after the reform, ranging from 1.2% to 10.8% reduction in the primary healthcare budget in five years. Conclusions Expenditures on primary healthcare in Salvador metropolitan area decreased after the 2017 funding reform. Seven of 13 cities reduced the government investments on primary healthcare services and programs in this scenario. Although the overall difference was -0.7%, the budget cuts ranged from 1.2% to 10.8% in the analyzed period and sample. More studies should assess these events in wide areas and with long time ranges. Key messages Public health funding models can impact the primary healthcare settings regardless of the health policy. Reforms in the funding models should consider the possible benefits before implementation. Funding models and methods that require mandatory investments in primary healthcare may be considered over more flexible ones.

165 Effects of Digestible Lysine Level on Growth Performance and Economics of Grow-finish Pigs

2021 ◽  
Vol 99 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 58-59
Author(s):  
Larissa L Becker ◽  
Emily E Scholtz ◽  
Joel M DeRouchey ◽  
Mike D Tokach ◽  
Jason C Woodworth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phase 1 ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
Ileal Digestibility ◽  
Distillers Dried Grains ◽  
Feed Cost ◽  
Best Fitting ◽  
Dietary Treatments ◽  
Fitting Model

Abstract A total of 2,124 barrows and gilts (PIC 1050′DNA 600, initially 48.9 kg) were used in a 32-d study to determine the optimal dietary standardized ileal digestibility (SID) Lys level in a commercial setting. Pigs were randomly allotted to 1 of 5 dietary treatments with 24 to 27 pigs/pen and 16 replications/treatment. Similar number of barrows and gilts were placed in each pen. Diets were fed over 3 phases (48.9 to 58.6, 58.6 to 70.9, and 70.9 to 80.8 kg respectively). Dietary treatments were corn-soybean meal-based and contained 10 (phase 1 and 2) or 5% (phase 3) distillers dried grains with solubles. Diets were formulated to 85, 95, 103, 110, or 120% of the current Pig Improvement Company (PIC, Hendersonville, TN) SID Lys gilt recommendations with phase 1 SID Lys levels of 0.90, 1.01, 1.09, 1.17 and 1.27%, phase 2 levels of 0.79, 0.87, 0.94, 1.03, and 1.10%, and phase 3 levels of 0.71, 0.78, 0.85, 0.92, and 0.99%, respectively. Dose response curves were evaluated using linear (LM), quadratic polynomial (QP), broken-line linear (BLL), and broken-line quadratic (BLQ) models. For each response variable, the best-fitting model was selected using the Bayesian information criterion. Overall (d 0 to 32), increasing SID Lys increased (linear, P< 0.001) BW, ADG, G:F, Lys intake/d, and Lys intake/kg of gain. Modeling margin over feed cost (MOFC), BLL and QP estimated the requirement at 105.8% and 113.7% respectively. In summary, while growth increased linearly up to 120% of the PIC current feeding level, the optimal MOFC was 106% to 114% depending on the model used.

scholarly journals Analysis and prediction of the coronavirus disease epidemic in China based on an individual-based model

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zuiyuan Guo ◽  
Dan Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Individual Based Model ◽  
Whole Process ◽  
Coordinate Descent Algorithm ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

AbstractWe established a stochastic individual-based model and simulated the whole process of occurrence, development, and control of the coronavirus disease epidemic and the infectors and patients leaving Hubei Province before the traffic was closed in China. Additionally, the basic reproduction number (R0) and number of infectors and patients who left Hubei were estimated using the coordinate descent algorithm. The median R0 at the initial stage of the epidemic was 4.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.82–5.17). Before the traffic lockdown was implemented in Hubei, 2000 (95% CI 1982–2030) infectors and patients had left Hubei and traveled throughout the country. The model estimated that if the government had taken prevention and control measures 1 day later, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in the whole country would have increased by 32.1%. If the lockdown of Hubei was imposed 1 day in advance, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in other provinces would have decreased by 7.7%. The stochastic model could fit the officially issued data well and simulate the evolution process of the epidemic. The intervention measurements nationwide have effectively curbed the human-to-human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

Genetic and Environmental Influences of Dietary Indices in a UK Female Twin Cohort

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 330-337
Author(s):  
Olatz Mompeo ◽  
Rachel Gibson ◽  
Paraskevi Christofidou ◽  
Tim D. Spector ◽  
Cristina Menni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Healthy Eating ◽  
Menopausal Status ◽  
Healthy Eating Index ◽  
Healthy Diet ◽  
Nutritional Epidemiology ◽  
Best Fitting ◽  
Heritability Estimates ◽  
Fitting Model ◽  
Dietary Indices ◽  
Health Parameters

AbstractA healthy diet is associated with the improvement or maintenance of health parameters, and several indices have been proposed to assess diet quality comprehensively. Twin studies have found that some specific foods, nutrients and food patterns have a heritable component; however, the heritability of overall dietary intake has not yet been estimated. Here, we compute heritability estimates of the nine most common dietary indices utilized in nutritional epidemiology. We analyzed 2590 female twins from TwinsUK (653 monozygotic [MZ] and 642 dizygotic [DZ] pairs) who completed a 131-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Heritability estimates were computed using structural equation models (SEM) adjusting for body mass index (BMI), smoking status, Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), physical activity, menopausal status, energy and alcohol intake. The AE model was the best-fitting model for most of the analyzed dietary scores (seven out of nine), with heritability estimates ranging from 10.1% (95% CI [.02, .18]) for the Dietary Reference Values (DRV) to 42.7% (95% CI [.36, .49]) for the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (A-HEI). The ACE model was the best-fitting model for the Healthy Diet Indicator (HDI) and Healthy Eating Index 2010 (HEI-2010) with heritability estimates of 5.4% (95% CI [−.17, .28]) and 25.4% (95% CI [.05, .46]), respectively. Here, we find that all analyzed dietary indices have a heritable component, suggesting that there is a genetic predisposition regulating what you eat. Future studies should explore genes underlying dietary indices to further understand the genetic disposition toward diet-related health parameters.

scholarly journals The effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in different socioeconomic populations in Kuwait: a modeling study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatima Khadadah ◽  
Abdullah A. Al-Shammari ◽  
Ahmad Alhashemi ◽  
Dari Alhuwail ◽  
Bader Al-Saif ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Socioeconomic Groups ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Cross Transmission ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Abstract Background Aggressive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The extent to which these interventions are successful in stopping the spread have not been characterized in countries with distinct socioeconomic groups. We compared the effects of a partial lockdown on disease transmission among Kuwaitis (P1) and non-Kuwaitis (P2) living in Kuwait. Methods We fit a modified metapopulation SEIR transmission model to reported cases stratified by two groups to estimate the impact of a partial lockdown on the effective reproduction number ($$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e ). We estimated the basic reproduction number ($$ {\mathcal{R}}_0 $$ R 0 ) for the transmission in each group and simulated the potential trajectories of an outbreak from the first recorded case of community transmission until 12 days after the partial lockdown. We estimated $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e values of both groups before and after the partial curfew, simulated the effect of these values on the epidemic curves and explored a range of cross-transmission scenarios. Results We estimate $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e at 1·08 (95% CI: 1·00–1·26) for P1 and 2·36 (2·03–2·71) for P2. On March 22nd, $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e for P1 and P2 are estimated at 1·19 (1·04–1·34) and 1·75 (1·26–2·11) respectively. After the partial curfew had taken effect, $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e for P1 dropped modestly to 1·05 (0·82–1·26) but almost doubled for P2 to 2·89 (2·30–3·70). Our simulated epidemic trajectories show that the partial curfew measure greatly reduced and delayed the height of the peak in P1, yet significantly elevated and hastened the peak in P2. Modest cross-transmission between P1 and P2 greatly elevated the height of the peak in P1 and brought it forward in time closer to the peak of P2. Conclusion Our results indicate and quantify how the same lockdown intervention can accentuate disease transmission in some subpopulations while potentially controlling it in others. Any such control may further become compromised in the presence of cross-transmission between subpopulations. Future interventions and policies need to be sensitive to socioeconomic and health disparities.

Comparing productive vocabulary measures from the CDI and a systematic diary study

1999 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 177-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
BYRON F. ROBINSON ◽  
CAROLYN B. MERVIS
Keyword(s):  
Growth Curves ◽  
Diary Study ◽  
Expressive Vocabulary ◽  
Early Language ◽  
Vocabulary Size ◽  
Early Language Development ◽  
Closed Class ◽  
Communicative Development ◽  
Best Fitting ◽  
Fitting Model

Expressive vocabulary data gathered during a systematic diary study of one male child's early language development are compared to data that would have resulted from longitudinal administration of the MacArthur Communicative Development Inventories spoken vocabulary checklist (CDI). Comparisons are made for (1) the number of words at monthly intervals (9;10.15 to 2;0.15), (2) proportion of words by lexical class (i.e. noun, predicate, closed class, ‘other’), (3) growth curves. The CDI underestimates the number of words in the diary study, with the underestimation increasing as vocabulary size increases. The proportion of diary study words appearing on the CDI differed as a function of lexical class. Finally, despite the differences in vocabulary size, logistic curves proved to be the best fitting model to characterize vocabulary development as measured by both the diary study and the CDI. Implications for the longitudinal use of the CDI are discussed.

scholarly journals Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 372 (6538) ◽  
pp. eabg3055 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas G. Davies ◽  
Sam Abbott ◽  
Rosanna C. Barnard ◽  
Christopher I. Jarvis ◽  
Adam J. Kucharski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Educational Institutions ◽  
Stringent Control ◽  
Dynamic Transmission Model ◽  
Credible Intervals

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

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