scholarly journals Categorization of South Tyrolean Built Heritage with Consideration of the Impact of Climate

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingjun Hao ◽  
Daniel Herrera-Avellanosa ◽  
Claudio Del Pero ◽  
Alexandra Troi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Historic Buildings ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Past ◽  
Built Heritage ◽  
Plan Adaptation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Design Construction

Climate change imposes great challenges on the built heritage sector by increasing the risks of energy inefficiency, indoor overheating, and moisture-related damage to the envelope. Therefore, it is urgent to assess these risks and plan adaptation strategies for historic buildings. These activities must be based on a strong knowledge of the main building categories. Moreover, before adapting a historic building to future climate, it is necessary to understand how the past climate influenced its design, construction, and eventual categories. This knowledge will help when estimating the implication of climate change on historic buildings. This study aims at identifying building categories, which will be the basis for further risk assessment and adaptation plans, while at the same time analyzing the historical interaction between climate and human dwelling. The results show some correlations between building categories and climate. Therefore, it is necessary to use different archetypes to represent the typical buildings in different climate zones. Moreover, these correlations imply a need to investigate the capability of the climate-responsive features in future climate scenarios and to explore possible further risks and adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

scholarly journals Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e56026
Author(s):  
Gabriela Leite Neves ◽  
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽  
Maysa de Lima Leite ◽  
Frederico Fabio Mauad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

Timothy yield and nutritive value with a three-harvest system under the projected future climate in Canada

2014 ◽  
Vol 94 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Jing ◽  
Gilles Bélanger ◽  
Budong Qian ◽  
Vern Baron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nutritive Value ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Phleum Pratense ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Stochastic Weather Generator ◽  
The Impact

Jing, Q., Bélanger, G., Qian, B. and Baron, V. 2014. Timothy yield and nutritive value with a three-harvest system under the projected future climate in Canada. Can. J. Plant Sci. 94: 213–222. Timothy (Phleum pratense L.) is harvested twice annually in Canada but with projected climate change, an additional harvest may be possible. Our objective was to evaluate the impact on timothy dry matter (DM) yield and key nutritive value attributes of shifting from a two- to a three-harvest system under projected future climate conditions at 10 sites across Canada. Future climate scenarios were generated with a stochastic weather generator (AAFC-WG) using two global climate models under the forcing of two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios and, then, used by the CATIMO (Canadian Timothy Model) grass model to simulate DM yield and key nutritive value attributes. Under future climate scenarios (2040–2069), the additional harvest and the resulting three-harvest system are expected to increase annual DM yield (+0.46 to +2.47 Mg DM ha−1) compared with a two-harvest system across Canada but the yield increment will on average be greater in eastern Canada (1.88 Mg DM ha−1) and Agassiz (2.02 Mg DM ha−1) than in the prairie provinces of Canada (0.84 Mg DM ha−1). The DM yield of the first harvest in a three-harvest system is expected to be less than in the two-harvest system, while that of the second harvest would be greater. Decreases in average neutral detergent fibre (NDF) concentration (−19 g kg−1 DM) and digestibility (dNDF, −5 g kg−1 NDF) are also expected with the three-harvest system under future conditions. Our results indicate that timothy will take advantage of projected climate change, through taking a third harvest, thereby increasing annual DM production.

scholarly journals Ensemble Models Predict Invasive Bee Habitat Suitability Will Expand under Future Climate Scenarios in Hawai’i

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 443
Author(s):  
Jesse A. Tabor ◽  
Jonathan B. Koch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Invasive Species ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Invasive Range ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is predicted to increase the risk of biological invasions by increasing the availability of climatically suitable regions for invasive species. Endemic species on oceanic islands are particularly sensitive to the impact of invasive species due to increased competition for shared resources and disease spread. In our study, we used an ensemble of species distribution models (SDM) to predict habitat suitability for invasive bees under current and future climate scenarios in Hawai’i. SDMs projected on the invasive range were better predicted by georeferenced records from the invasive range in comparison to invasive SDMs predicted by records from the native range. SDMs estimated that climatically suitable regions for the eight invasive bees explored in this study will expand by ~934.8% (±3.4% SE). Hotspots for the invasive bees are predicted to expand toward higher elevation regions, although suitable habitat is expected to only progress up to 500 m in elevation in 2070. Given our results, it is unlikely that invasive bees will interact directly with endemic bees found at >500 m in elevation in the future. Management and conservation plans for endemic bees may be improved by understanding how climate change may exacerbate negative interactions between invasive and endemic bee species.

Impact of climate change on soil erosion and the efficiency of soil conservation practices in Austria

2010 ◽  
Vol 148 (5) ◽  
pp. 529-541 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. KLIK ◽  
J. EITZINGER
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Soil Conservation ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYThe goal of the present study was to assess the impact of selected soil protection measures on soil erosion and retention of rainwater in a 1·14 km2 watershed used for agriculture in the north-east of Austria. Watershed conditions under conventional tillage (CT), no-till (NT) and under grassland use were simulated using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) soil erosion model. The period 1961–90 was used as a reference and results were compared to future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and A2 (2040–60).The simulations for the NT and grassland options suggested runoff would decrease by 38 and 75%, respectively, under the current climatic conditions. The simulation results suggest that, under future climate scenarios, the effectiveness of the selected soil conservation measures with respect to runoff will be similar, or decreased by 16–53%.The actual average net soil losses in the watershed varied from 2·57 t/ha/yr for conventional soil management systems to 0.01 t/ha/yr for grassland. This corresponds to a maximum average annual loss of about 0·2 mm, which is considered to be the average annual soil formation rate and therefore an acceptable soil loss. The current soil/land use does not exceed this limit, with most of the erosion occurring during spring time. Under future climate scenarios, the simulations suggested that CT would either decrease soil erosion by up to 55% or increase it by up to 56%. Under these conditions, the acceptable limits will partly be exceeded. The simulations of NT suggested this would reduce annual soil loss rates (compared to CT) to 0·2 and 1·4 t/ha, i.e. about the same or slightly higher than for NT under actual conditions. The simulation of conversion to grassland suggested soil erosion was almost completely prevented.The selected soil conservation methods maintain their protective effect on soil resources, independent of the climate scenario. Therefore, with small adaptations, they can also be recommended as sustainable soil/land management systems under future climatic conditions.However, based on the available climate scenarios, climate-induced changes in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainstorms were only considered in a limited way in the present work. As the general future trend indicates a strong increase of rainstorms with high intensity during summer months, the results of the present study may be too optimistic.

scholarly journals Observing the past to better understand the future: a synthesis of the Neogene climate in Europe and its perspectives on present climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonçalo A. Prista ◽  
Rui J. Agostinho ◽  
Mário A. Cachão
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Warming Scenario ◽  
The Past ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
The Future ◽  
Global Warming Scenario ◽  
The Impact

AbstractA review of the entire Neogene climate in Europe is a useful tool for climate researchers, synthesizing present day knowledge on a variety of past warmer climate modes thus facilitating the debate regarding possible future climate scenarios in the Old Continent. This work centres on the European scenario, debating possible future projections and describing the Miocene and Pliocene climate in the Old Continent. With present evidences of a global warming scenario, it is highly important that we look at past climatic events in order to better predict future climate changes impact in biodiversity. The review presented here synthesizes the literature regarding climate, faunal and floral evolution for the European Neogene, and aims to help palaeoclimatic researchers and climatologists to characterize some of the boundary conditions for modelling possible analogous of IPPC climate scenarios. If the future climate projections come to be true, it is shown that the Pliocene, and particularly the Mid Piacenzian Warm Period, should be considered as the best analogue for the impact of a warming climate in Europe.

Assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater in an area in New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Yang ◽  
Channa Rajanayaka ◽  
Lawrence Kees ◽  
Christian Zammit
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

<p>Climate and its variability have a considerable impact on seasonal water resources availability. Understanding the impact of climate change and the time lagged  response in areas where groundwater is the main water resource supporting human activity (water supply, agriculture and industry), is necessary to manage potentially damaging consequences for hydrologically-driven ecological functions, ecosystem services, economic response and adaptation, cultural values and recreation.  </p><p>In this study, we assess the impact of climate change on groundwater in Edendale area, South New Zealand, which has been experiencing increasing water abstraction pressure and declining groundwater level. We use downscaled CMIP5 IPCC climate predictions to drive a hydrologic model (TopNet) to simulate changes in land surface recharge (LSR) under different climate models and future climate scenarios (i.e. RCPs – Representative Concentration Pathways) , and then the ensemble of LSR simulations further drive the Edendale groundwater model (MODFLOW) to simulate groundwater system.</p><p>Our initial result show: in spite of differences in simulations of different climate models and future climate scenarios, to the end of this century, there will be a slight annual increasing trend both for precipitation and LSR, significantly in Autumn and less significantly in other seasons; generally groundwater level and groundwater discharge (to rivers) will be increasing, following seasonal and annual patterns of changes in precipitation and LSR; differences are large for both climate models and future scenarios, largest for RCP8.5 and smallest for RCP2.6. We hope the results will support the long-term water management planning in the Edendale area.</p>

scholarly journals Odour Impact Assessment in a Changing Climate

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Piringer ◽  
Werner Knauder ◽  
Kathrin Baumann-Stanzer ◽  
Ivonne Anders ◽  
Konrad Andre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Climatic Parameters ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
The Future ◽  
Stability Classification ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact

(1) Background: The impact of odour sources as stock farms on neighbouring residential areas might increase in the future because the relevant climatic parameters will be modified due to climate change. (2) Methodology: Separation distances are calculated for two Central European sites with considerable livestock activity influenced by different orographic and climatic conditions. Furthermore, two climate scenarios are considered, namely, the time period 1981–2010 (present climate) and the period 2036–2065 (future climate). Based on the provided climatic parameters, stability classes are derived as input for local-scale air pollution modelling. The separation distances are determined using the Lagrangian particle diffusion model LASAT. (3) Results: Main findings comprise the changes of stability classes between the present and the future climate and the resulting changes in the modelled odour impact. Model results based on different schemes for stability classification are compared. With respect to the selected climate scenarios and the variety of the stability schemes, a bandwidth of affected separation distances results. (4) Conclusions: The investigation reveals to what extent livestock husbandry will have to adapt to climate change, e.g., with impacts on today’s licensing processes.

scholarly journals Effects of Slope Ecological Restoration on Runoff and Its Response to Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (20) ◽  
pp. 4017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shan He ◽  
Tianling Qin ◽  
Fang Liu ◽  
Shanshan Liu ◽  
Biqiong Dong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Restoration ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Forest Land ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Main Influence

Slope ecological restoration and climate change are important factors affecting the hydrological processes of the Huangshui River Basin in Qinghai province, China. How to quantitatively identify the impact of slope ecological restoration on runoff and whether slope ecological restoration can mitigate the impact of future climate change on runoff are both very important. In this paper, the Huangshui River above the center of Minhe county was taken as the research area, and the Pinus tabulaeformis and shrubs were taken as the main forest land types of slope ecological restoration. First, based on the law of forest land variation, the construction scales of slope ecological restoration in different periods were identified. The influence of slope ecological restoration on runoff was then quantitatively evaluated by using a distributed hydrological model. Second, the future climate scenarios of five general circulation models (GCMs) under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) from 2021 to 2050 were selected and modified by model integration. Combined with the slope ecological restoration scenarios, the influence of slope ecological restoration on runoff under future climate scenarios was explored. The results showed that the effect of slope ecological restoration was significant. Compared with 1980, the area of slope ecological restoration increased by 24% in 2017. Under the present climate conditions (1960–2017), different periods of slope ecological restoration have an effect on the process of runoff in the wet season (June, July, August, and September) and dry season (January, February, March, and December), which eliminates the maximum, replenishes the minimum, and reduces the variability of runoff processes in the watershed. Under the future climate scenario (2021–50), slope ecological restoration will reduce runoff. On the other hand, climate change will increase runoff, and the combination of the two effects will have a certain offsetting effect. On the whole, comparing the influence of slope ecological restoration on the runoff process with that of climate change in different seasons, due to the main influence of slope ecological restoration, the runoff decreased by about 55% in the temperate season (April, May, October, and November), and increased by about 50% in the dry season or wet season due to the main influence of future climate scenarios.

scholarly journals Predicting the current and future distribution of four original plants of Gentianae Macrophyllae Radix in China under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Houkang Cao ◽  
Xiaohui Ma ◽  
Li Liu ◽  
Shaoyang Xi ◽  
Yanxiu Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Gentiana Macrophylla ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe wild resources of the four original plants (Gentiana crasicaulis Duthie ex Burk, Gentiana daurica Fisch, Gentiana straminea Maxim, and Gentiana macrophylla Pall) of Gentianae Macrophyllae Radix are becoming exhausted. Predicting the distribution under current and future climate scenarios is of significance for the sustainable utilization of resources and ecological protection. In this study, we constructed four species distribution models (SDMs) combining species distribution informations, 19 bioclimatic variables, and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The results showed that these 4 plants prefer a cool and humid climate. Under the future climate scenarios, the areas of the highly suitable habitats for Gentiana crasicaulis Duthie ex Burk and Gentiana daurica Fisch were likely to decrease, while Gentiana straminea Maxim was likely to expand, and Gentiana macrophylla Pall was less affected. In addition, the centroids of the highly suitable habitats for the four species shifted north or west. Most notably, most of the highly suitable habitats for the four species remained unchanged, which would be the preferred area for semi-artificial cultivation. The above information in this study would contribute to the development of reasonable strategies to reduce the impact of climate change on the four original plants.

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