scholarly journals Learning Interpretable Mixture of Weibull Distributions—Exploratory Analysis of How Economic Development Influences the Incidence of COVID-19 Deaths

Data ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Róbert Csalódi ◽  
Zoltán Birkner ◽  
János Abonyi
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Weibull Models ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression

This paper presents an algorithm for learning local Weibull models, whose operating regions are represented by fuzzy rules. The applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated in estimating the mortality rate of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reproducible results show that there is a significant difference between mortality rates of countries due to their economic situation, urbanization, and the state of the health sector. The proposed method is compared with the semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard regression method. The distribution functions of these two methods are close to each other, so the proposed method can estimate efficiently.

25-Hydroxyvitamin D and the risk of incident diabetes in Hong Kong Chinese

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 1201-1207
Author(s):  
Raymond YH Leung ◽  
Bernard MY Cheung ◽  
Kathryn CB Tan ◽  
Annie WC Kung ◽  
Ching-Lung Cheung
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Hong Kong Chinese ◽  
Incident Diabetes ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Hazard Regression ◽  
Hydroxyvitamin D ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
25 Hydroxyvitamin D ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression

AbstractObjective:To investigate the relationship between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and risk of incident diabetes in Hong Kong Chinese, after accounting for the effect of multiple bone- and mineral-related markers.Design:We conducted a retrospective study on the Hong Kong Osteoporosis Study cohort. Incident diabetes was ascertained using electronic medical records. Serum 25(OH)D was measured at baseline and its association with incident diabetes was evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional-hazard regression.Participants:Individuals (n 4342) aged 20 years or above (1395 men, 2947 women; mean age 54·3 (sd 16·5) years) from the Hong Kong Osteoporosis Study, who were free of diabetes at baseline, were included.Results:During 40 124·7 person-years of follow-up (a median of 9·2 years), 443 participants developed diabetes. Mean 25(OH)D was 63·34 (sd 13·07) nmol/l. Age-, sex- and BMI-adjusted Cox proportional-hazard regression showed no significant difference in the risk of incident diabetes between the lowest and the highest quintiles of 25(OH)D. In the analysis of the interaction effect between 25(OH)D and serum Ca, the interaction term did not affect the risk of incident diabetes significantly (P = 0·694). Similarly, there was no significant interaction of different subgroups (age, sex, BMI, femoral-neck T-score, serum Ca levels) with serum 25(OH)D.Conclusions:The present study finds that serum vitamin D level is not associated with the risk of incident diabetes in Hong Kong Chinese and this relationship is not modified by serum Ca level.

scholarly journals Multicenter Study of the Real-World Use of Ceftaroline versus Vancomycin for Acute Bacterial Skin and Skin Structure Infections

2019 ◽  
Vol 63 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
T. D. Trinh ◽  
S. C. J. Jorgensen ◽  
E. J. Zasowski ◽  
K. C. Claeys ◽  
A. M. Lagnf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Propensity Score ◽  
Real World ◽  
Independent Effect ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Multicenter Cohort Study ◽  
Skin Structure ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Discharge Readiness ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to determine if real-world ceftaroline treatment in adults hospitalized for acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI) is associated with decreased infection-related length of stay (LOSinf) compared to that with vancomycin. This was a retrospective, multicenter, cohort study from 2012 to 2017. Cox proportional hazard regression, propensity score matching, and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) were used to determine the independent effect of treatment group on LOSinf. The patients were adults hospitalized with ABSSSI and treated with ceftaroline or vancomycin for ≥72 h within 120 h of diagnosis at four academic medical centers and two community hospitals in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, and West Virginia. A total of 724 patients were included (325 ceftaroline treated and 399 vancomycin treated). In general, ceftaroline-treated patients had characteristics consistent with a higher risk of poor outcomes. The unadjusted median LOSinf values were 5 (interquartile range [IQR], 3 to 7) days and 6 (IQR, 4 to 8) days in the vancomycin and ceftaroline groups, respectively (hazard ratio [HR], 0.866; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.747 to 1.002). The Cox proportional hazard model (adjusted HR [aHR], 0.891; 95% CI, 0.748 to 1.060), propensity score-matched (aHR, 0.955; 95% CI, 0.786 to 1.159), and IPTW (aHR, 0.918; 95% CI, 0.793 to 1.063) analyses demonstrated no significant difference in LOSinf between groups. Patients treated with ceftaroline were significantly more likely to meet criteria for discharge readiness at day 3 in unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Although discharge readiness at day 3 was higher in ceftaroline-treated patients, LOSinf values were similar between treatment groups. Clinical and nonclinical factors were associated with LOSinf.

Comparison of Virulence Attributable to Different Levels of Antimicrobial Resistant Acinetobacter baumannii Bacteremia

2021 ◽  
Vol 104 (5) ◽  
pp. 715-722
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Acinetobacter Baumannii ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Multidrug Resistant ◽  
Drug Resistant ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Inappropriate Treatment ◽  
Crude Mortality ◽  
Hospital Acquired

Objective: To determine the mortality rate and severity of sepsis in patients who have acquired drug resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (AB) bacteremia (ABB). Materials and Methods: Microbiology data and information of adult patients hospitalized at Songklanagarind Hospital with positive blood culture for AB between January 2008 and April 2017 were retrieved and reviewed. Antimicrobial resistance was classified into four categories comprising of non-multidrug-resistant (nMDR), multidrug-resistant (MDR), extensively-drug-resistant (XDR), and possible-pandrug-resistant (pPDR). The primary outcome of bacteremia was the in-hospital mortality rate, with the additional outcome, being severity of sepsis represented by the Sepsis Severity Score (SSS). The differences in mortality rates were assessed by Cox proportional hazard model. Results of analysis were reported in terms of hazard ratio (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Comparison of SSS was evaluated by generalized linear model (GLM) and reported in term of odds ratio (OR). Results: The present study identified 480 patients with hospital-acquired ABB. The proportions among resistance categories were 11%, 39%, 47%, and 3% with crude mortality rates of 20%, 34%, 69%, and 75% for nMDR, MDR, XDR, and pPDR, respectively. GLM analysis showed ORs for higher SSS score in the appropriate treated MDR, and XDR were 1.09 (1.01 to 1.19), and 1.12 (1.03 to 1.22), respectively. The inappropriate treatment ORs for nMDR, MDR, XDR, and pPDR were 1.17 (0.99 to 1.39), 1.30 (1.17 to 1.45), 1.17 (1.08 to 1.28), and 1.01 (0.87 to 1.17), respectively. Conclusion: The virulence of AB was not reduced when its level of antibiotic resistance was upgraded. Keywords: Acinetobacter baumannii; Drug resistance; Bacteremia; Mortality; Virulence

scholarly journals Plasma Levels of Histone-DNA Complex and Cell-Free DNA Predict Mortality in Patients with Immune Thrombotic Thrombocytopenic Purpura

Blood ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 1070-1070
Author(s):  
Jingrui (Jean) Sui ◽  
Konstantine Halkidis ◽  
Nicole K. Kocher ◽  
Lance A. Williams ◽  
Radhika Gangaraju ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Plasma Levels ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Dna Complexes ◽  
Thrombocytopenic Purpura ◽  
Cell Free Dna ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Free Dna ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression ◽  
Dna Complex

Background: Deficiency of plasma ADAMTS13 activity resulting from acquired autoantibody against ADAMTS13 is the primary cause of immune thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (iTTP). Therapeutic plasma exchange plus corticosteroids and immunosuppression is the standard of care for patients with iTTP. However, mortality rate remains high and clinical factors or laboratory biomarkers that predict mortality are not fully established. Previous studies have demonstrated that plasma levels of histone-DNA complexes and cell-free DNA are dramatically elevated in patients with acute disease but reduced during remission. We hypothesize that elevated histone-DNA complexes or cell-free DNA may have a predictive role for mortality in patients with acute iTTP. Methods: 102 unique patients with a confirmed diagnosis of iTTP who underwent therapeutic plasma exchange (TPE) at UAB-Medical Center from April 2006 to December 2018 were enrolled into the study. Demographic information and laboratory parameters were collected on admission and during the follow-up. Plasma levels of histone-DNA complexes and cell-free DNA were determined by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and PicoGreen dsDNA assay, respectively. Mann-Whitney, Fisher's exact, t test, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis were performed to determine the significance of each marker in predicting death. Results: In this cohort, age was 44.7 ± 1.3 (mean ± SD) years old, 56.9% were female, 82.4% were African Americans, 61.8% had an initial episode, the median (IQR) body mass index (BMI) was 33.6 (29.3-41.5). 52.9% of patients had hypertension, 21.6% diabetes, 18.6% systemic lupus erythematous and 8.7% HIV. The overall mortality rate was 10.8% (11/102). Plasma levels, median (IQR), of histone-DNA complexes and cell-free DNA on admission were 56.3 (35.8-136.4) AU/mL and 952.2 (799.7-1431.4) ng/mL, respectively. Mann-Whitney test revealed that high plasma levels of histone-DNA complex (≥134.9 U/mL) (p=0.007) and cell-free DNA (≥952.2 ng/mL) (p=0.009) were associated with the increased risks of myocardial injury (e.g. elevated troponin). Cox proportional hazard regression analysis demonstrated that the increased levels of histone-DNA complexes and cell-free DNA were also predictive for the increased mortality rates in patients with iTTP with hazard ratios (HRs) of 4.1 (95% CI, 1.2-13.4) (p=0.02) and 8.5 (95% CI, 2.2-33.3 (p=0.002), respectively. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed significant differences in the disease-free survival rates of patients with high levels (≥75 percentile) vs. low levels (<75 percentile) of plasma histone-DNA complexes and cell-free DNA, respectively (see Fig. 1). Conclusion: Our results demonstrate that the elevated plasma levels of histone-DNA complexes and cell-free DNA predict the worse outcome (e.g. the increased mortality rates) in patients with iTTP. *SD, standard deviation; IQR, interquartile range; 95% CI, 95% confidential interval. Disclosures Zheng: Ablynx/Sanofi: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Alexion: Speakers Bureau; Shire/Takeda: Research Funding; Clotsolution: Other: Co-Founder.

scholarly journals Low serum parathyroid hormone is a risk factor for peritonitis episodes in incident peritoneal dialysis patients: a retrospective study

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqi Yang ◽  
Jingjing Da ◽  
Yi Jiang ◽  
Jing Yuan ◽  
Yan Zha
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
Parathyroid Hormone ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Serum Parathyroid Hormone ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression ◽  
Gram Negative Organisms ◽  
Serum Pth

Abstract Background Serum parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels have been reported to be associated with infectious mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Peritonitis is the most common and fatal infectious complication, resulting in technique failure, hospital admission and mortality. Whether PTH is associated with peritonitis episodes remains unclear. Methods We examined the association of PTH levels and peritonitis incidence in a 7-year cohort of 270 incident PD patients who were maintained on dialysis between January 2012 and December 2018 using Cox proportional hazard regression analyses. Patients were categorized into three groups by serum PTH levels as follows: low-PTH group, PTH < 150 pg/mL; middle-PTH group, PTH 150-300 pg/mL; high-PTH group, PTH > 300 pg/mL. Results During a median follow-up of 29.5 (interquartile range 16–49) months, the incidence rate of peritonitis was 0.10 episodes per patient-year. Gram-positive organisms were the most common causative microorganisms (36.2%), and higher percentage of Gram-negative organisms was noted in patients with low PTH levels. Low PTH levels were associated with older age, higher eGFR, higher hemoglobin, calcium levels and lower phosphate, alkaline phosphatase levels. After multivariate adjustment, lower PTH levels were identified as an independent risk factor for peritonitis episodes [hazard ratio 1.643, 95% confidence interval 1.014–2.663, P = 0.044]. Conclusions Low PTH levels are independently associated with peritonitis in incident PD patients.

Factors affecting progression to permanent atrial fibrillation in an unselected population of patients with non-permanent form of atrial fibrillation

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
V.L Malavasi ◽  
E Fantecchi ◽  
V Tordoni ◽  
L Melara ◽  
A Barbieri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
History Of ◽  
Unselected Population ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression

Abstract Background Natural history of atrial fibrillation (AF) shows a progression of arrhythmia from non-permanent to permanent AF. Permanent AF was found associated with a worse prognosis than non-permanent one. Aim To assess the factors associated with progression to permanent AF in an unselected population of AF patients with non-permanent AF. Methods In this prospective study we enrolled in- as well as out-patients with non-permanent AF and age ≥18 years, with at least one episode of ECG-documented AF within 1 year. The patients were followed-up at 1 month and every 6 months thereafter. Results Out of 523 patients, 314 (60%) were in non-permanent AF (80 [25.5%] paroxysmal AF, 165 [52.5%] persistent AF, 69 [2%] first diagnosed AF), mostly male (188, 59.9%), median age 71 years (IQ range 62–77), median CHA2DS2VASc 3 (1–4), median HATCH score 1 (1–2). After a median follow-up of 701 (IQ range 437–902) days, 66 patients (21%) showed permanent AF. CHA2DS2VASc and HATCH scores were incrementally associated to progression to permanent AF (CHA2DS2VASc χ2 p=0.001; HATCH χ2 p=0.017; p for trend CHA2DS2VASc &lt;0.001, HATCH p=0.001). At multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression the following variables were significantly associated with AF progression: age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.041; 95% CI: 1.004–1.079; p=0.028), at least moderate left atrial (LA) enlargement (&gt;42 ml/m2) (HR 2.092; 95% CI: 1.132–3.866; p=0.018), antiarrhythmics drugs after the enrollment (HR 0.087; 95% CI: 0.011–0.662; p=0.018), EHRA score &gt;2 (HR 0.351; 95% CI: 0.158–0.779; p=0.010) and Valvular HD (HR 2.161; 95% CI: 1.057–4.420; p=0.035). Adding LA dilation to HATCH score (HATCH-LA) and assigning 2 points based on multivariable Cox regression, HATCH-LA was statistically better in ROC curves in prediction of AF progression vs HATCH score (area under the curve 0.695 vs 0.636; DeLong p=0.0225). Survival-free curves on freedom from permanent AF using as discriminator HATCH-LA score ≤2 vs &gt;2 led to a statistically significant difference (χ2=16.080 p&lt;0.001), but the same was not found for HATCH score (χ2 =3.099; p=0.078). Conclusions In patients without permanent AF, progression of AF was independentely related to age, LA dilation, AF symptoms severity, antiarrhythmic drugs and Valvular HD. HATCH score predicted AF progression and adding to it LA dilation (at least moderate) improved patients stratification for the risk of evolution to permanent AF. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals AB0292 EFFICACY AND SAFETY OF TWO BIOSIMILAR ETANERCEPT AFTER THE SWITCH FROM THEIR CORRESPONDING ORIGINATOR IN THE TREATMENT OF PATIENTS WITH AUTOIMMUNE ARTHRITIS; A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS IN A REAL LIFE SETTING

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1445.1-1445
Author(s):  
F. Girelli ◽  
A. Ariani ◽  
M. Bruschi ◽  
A. Becciolini ◽  
L. Gardelli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Disease Duration ◽  
Retention Rate ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Autoimmune Arthritis ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Hazard Regression ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Real Life Setting ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression

Background:The available biosimilars of etanercept are as effective and well tolerated as their bio originator molecule in the naive treatment of chronic autoimmune arthritis. More data about the switching from the bio originator are needed.Objectives:To compare the clinical outcomes of the treatment with etanercept biosimilars (SB4 and GP2015) naïve and after the switch from their corresponding originator in patients affected by autoimmune arthritis in a real life settingMethods:We retrospectively analyzed the baseline characteristics and the retention rate in a cohort of patients who received at least a course of etanercept (originator or biosimilar) in our Rheumatology Units from January 2000 to January 2020. We stratified the study population according to biosimilar use. Descriptive data are presented by medians (interquartile range [IQR]) for continuous data or as numbers (percentages) for categorical data. Drug survival distribution curves were computed by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by a stratified log-rank test. A Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by indication, drug, age, disease duration, sex, treatment line, biosimilar use and prescription year was performed. P values≤0.05 were considered statistically significant.Results:477 patients (65% female, median age 56 [46-75] years, median disease duration 97 [40.25-178.75] months) treated with etanercept were included in the analysis. 257 (53.9%) were affect by rheumatoid arthritis, 139 (29.1%) by psoriatic arthritis, and 81 (17%) by axial spondylarthritis. 298 (62.5%) were treated with etanercept originator, 97 (20.3%) with SB4, and 82 (17.2%) with GP2015. Among the biosimilars 90/179 (50.3%) patients were naïve to etanercept treatment. Among the 89 switchers we observed 8 treatment discontinuations: one due to surgical infection complication, three due to disease flare, two due to subjective worsening and one due to remission. The overall 6- and 12-month retentions rate were 92.8% and 80.2%. The 6- and 12-month retention rate for etanercept, SB4 and GP2015 were 92.7%, 93.4% and 90.2%, and 82%, 74.5% and 88.1% respectively, without significant differences among the three groups (p=0.374). Patients switching from originator to biosimilars showed and overall higher treatment survival when compared to naive (12-month retention rate 81.2% vs 70.8%, p=0.036). The Cox proportional hazard regression analysis highlighted that the only predictor significantly associated with an overall higher risk of treatment discontinuation was the year of prescription (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.13; p<0.0001).Conclusion:In our retrospective study etanercept originator and its biosimilars (SB4 and GP2015) showed the same effectiveness. Patients switching from originator to biosimilar showed an significant higher retention rate when compared to naive. The only predictor of treatment discontinuation highlighted by the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was the year of treatment prescription.Disclosure of Interests:Francesco Girelli: None declared, Alarico Ariani: None declared, Marco Bruschi: None declared, Andrea Becciolini Speakers bureau: Sanofi-Genzyme, UCB and AbbVie, Lucia Gardelli: None declared, Maurizio Nizzoli: None declared

Manual occupations with high all-cause mortality: The contribution of socioeconomic and occupational characteristics

2020 ◽  
pp. 140349482096065
Author(s):  
Hanna Rinne ◽  
Mikko Laaksonen
Keyword(s):  
High Mortality ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Occupational Characteristics ◽  
Study Population ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression ◽  
Year 2000

Aims: Most high mortality-risk occupations are manual occupations. We examined to what extent high mortality of such occupations could be explained by education, income, unemployment or industry and whether there were differences in these effects among different manual occupations. Methods: We used longitudinal individual-level register-based data, the study population consisting of employees aged 30–64 at the end of the year 2000 with the follow-up period 2001–2015. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models in 31 male and 11 female occupations with high mortality. Results: There were considerable differences between manual occupations in how much adjusting for education, income, unemployment and industry explained the excess mortality. The variation was especially large among men: controlling for these variables explained over 50% of the excess mortality in 23 occupations. However, in some occupations the excess mortality even increased in relation to unadjusted mortality. Among women, these variables explained a varying proportion of the excess mortality in every occupation. After adjustment of all variables, mortality was no more statistically significantly higher than average in 14 occupations among men and 2 occupations among women. Conclusions: The high mortality in manual occupations was mainly explained by education, income, unemployment and industry. However, the degree of explanation varied widely between occupations, and considerable variation in mortality existed between manual occupations after controlling for these variables. More research is needed on other determinants of mortality in specific high-risk occupations.

Association of Dementia-Related Psychosis With Long-term Care Use and Death

Neurology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 96 (12) ◽  
pp. e1620-e1631
Author(s):  
James B. Wetmore ◽  
Yi Peng ◽  
Heng Yan ◽  
Suying Li ◽  
Muna Irfan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Long Term Care ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Comorbid Conditions ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression

ObjectiveTo determine the association of dementia-related psychosis (DRP) with death and use of long-term care (LTC); we hypothesized that DRP would be associated with increased risk of death and use of LTC in patients with dementia.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was performed. Medicare claims from 2008 to 2016 were used to define cohorts of patients with dementia and DRP. Outcomes were LTC, defined as nursing home stays of >100 consecutive days, and death. Patients with DRP were directly matched to patients with dementia without psychosis by age, sex, race, number of comorbid conditions, and dementia index year. Association of DRP with outcomes was evaluated using a Cox proportional hazard regression model.ResultsWe identified 256,408 patients with dementia. Within 2 years after the dementia index date, 13.9% of patients developed DRP and 31.9% had died. Corresponding estimates at 5 years were 25.5% and 64.0%. Mean age differed little between those who developed DRP (83.8 ± 7.9 years) and those who did not (83.1 ± 8.7 years). Patients with DRP were slightly more likely to be female (71.0% vs 68.3%) and white (85.7% vs 82.0%). Within 2 years of developing DRP, 16.1% entered LTC and 52.0% died; corresponding percentages for patients without DRP were 8.4% and 30.0%, respectively. In the matched cohort, DRP was associated with greater risk of LTC (hazard ratio [HR] 2.36, 2.29–2.44) and death (HR 2.06, 2.02–2.10).ConclusionsDRP was associated with a more than doubling in the risk of death and a nearly 2.5-fold increase in risk of the need for LTC.

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