scholarly journals Expected Recurrence of Extreme Winds in Northwestern Sahara and Associated Uncertainties

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (21) ◽  
pp. 6913
Author(s):  
Elena García García Bustamante ◽  
J. Fidel González González Rouco ◽  
Jorge Navarro ◽  
Etor E. Lucio Lucio Eceiza ◽  
Cristina Rojas Rojas Labanda
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Wind Gust ◽  
Return Levels ◽  
Uncertainty Space ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Regional Simulation ◽  
Extreme Winds ◽  
Selection Of

Estimating the probability of the occurrence of hazardous winds is crucial for their impact in human activities; however, this is inherently affected by the shortage of observations. This becomes critical in poorly sampled regions, such as the northwestern Sahara, where this work is focused. The selection of any single methodological variant contributes with additional uncertainty. To gain robustness in the estimates, we expand the uncertainty space by applying a large body of methodologies. The methodological uncertainty is constrained afterward by keeping only the reliable experiments. In doing so, we considerably narrow the uncertainty associated with the wind return levels. The analysis suggest that not necessarily all methodologies are equally robust. The highest 10-min speed (wind gust) for a return period of 50 years is about 45 ms−1 (56 ms−1). The intensity of the expected extreme winds is closely related to orography. The study is based on wind and wind gust observations that were collected and quality controlled for the specific purposes herein. We also make use of a 12-year high-resolution regional simulation to provide simulation-based wind return level maps that endorse the observation-based results. Such an exhaustive methodological sensitivity analysis with a long high-resolution simulation over this region was lacking in the literature.

scholarly journals Using high-resolution regional climate models to estimate return levels of daily extreme precipitation over Bavaria

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 3573-3598
Author(s):  
Benjamin Poschlod
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Gev Distribution ◽  
Return Levels

Abstract. Extreme daily rainfall is an important trigger for floods in Bavaria. The dimensioning of water management structures as well as building codes is based on observational rainfall return levels. In this study, three high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) are employed to produce 10- and 100-year daily rainfall return levels and their performance is evaluated by comparison to observational return levels. The study area is governed by different types of precipitation (stratiform, orographic, convectional) and a complex terrain, with convective precipitation also contributing to daily rainfall levels. The Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5) at a 12 km spatial resolution and the Weather and Forecasting Research (WRF) model at a 5 km resolution both driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis data use parametrization schemes to simulate convection. WRF at a 1.5 km resolution driven by ERA5 reanalysis data explicitly resolves convectional processes. Applying the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, the CRCM5 setup can reproduce the observational 10-year return levels with an areal average bias of +6.6 % and a spatial Spearman rank correlation of ρ=0.72. The higher-resolution 5 km WRF setup is found to improve the performance in terms of bias (+4.7 %) and spatial correlation (ρ=0.82). However, the finer topographic details of the WRF-ERA5 return levels cannot be evaluated with the observation data because their spatial resolution is too low. Hence, this comparison shows no further improvement in the spatial correlation (ρ=0.82) but a small improvement in the bias (2.7 %) compared to the 5 km resolution setup. Uncertainties due to extreme value theory are explored by employing three further approaches. Applied to the WRF-ERA5 data, the GEV distributions with a fixed shape parameter (bias is +2.5 %; ρ=0.79) and the generalized Pareto (GP) distributions (bias is +2.9 %; ρ=0.81) show almost equivalent results for the 10-year return period, whereas the metastatistical extreme value (MEV) distribution leads to a slight underestimation (bias is −7.8 %; ρ=0.84). For the 100-year return level, however, the MEV distribution (bias is +2.7 %; ρ=0.73) outperforms the GEV distribution (bias is +13.3 %; ρ=0.66), the GEV distribution with fixed shape parameter (bias is +12.9 %; ρ=0.70), and the GP distribution (bias is +11.9 %; ρ=0.63). Hence, for applications where the return period is extrapolated, the MEV framework is recommended. From these results, it follows that high-resolution regional climate models are suitable for generating spatially homogeneous rainfall return level products. In regions with a sparse rain gauge density or low spatial representativeness of the stations due to complex topography, RCMs can support the observational data. Further, RCMs driven by global climate models with emission scenarios can project climate-change-induced alterations in rainfall return levels at regional to local scales. This can allow adjustment of structural design and, therefore, adaption to future precipitation conditions.

Simulation-Based Selection of Surgical Trainees: Considerations, Challenges, and Opportunities

2016 ◽  
Vol 223 (3) ◽  
pp. 530-536 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aimee K. Gardner ◽  
E. Matthew Ritter ◽  
John T. Paige ◽  
Rami A. Ahmed ◽  
Gladys Fernandez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surgical Trainees ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Selection Of

EPITAXY OF CdTe ON (100) GaAs

1985 ◽  
Vol 56 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. A. KOLODZIEJSKI ◽  
R. L. GUNSHOR ◽  
N. OTSUKA ◽  
C. CHOI
Keyword(s):  
Electron Microscopy ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Strong Interaction ◽  
Gaas Substrate ◽  
Specific Growth ◽  
Lattice Mismatch ◽  
High Resolution Electron Microscopy ◽  
Resolution Electron ◽  
Selection Of

AbstractTwo epitaxial orientations [(111) and (100)] of CdTe are grown on (100) GaAs in the presence of a 14.6% lattice mismatch. Consistent nucleation of a selected orientation is achieved by employing specific growth techniques. The growth techniques for selection of both orientations are described. High resolution electron microscopy has been used to investigate the interface between the CdTe epilayer and the GaAs substrate. For the (111) orientation strong interaction exists between the epitaxial deposit and the substrate, whereas a weakened interaction between deposit and substrate induces the (100) orientation.

Effect of Mechanical Alignment System on Assembly Accuracy

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neville K. S. Lee ◽  
Grace H. Yu ◽  
Y. Zou ◽  
J. Y. Chen ◽  
Ajay Joneja
Keyword(s):  
Alignment Accuracy ◽  
Mechanical Alignment ◽  
Mechanical Assembly ◽  
Surface Waviness ◽  
Form Errors ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Assembly Accuracy ◽  
Alignment System ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract Mechanical means of positioning are frequently used in mechanical assembly processes. However, very little attention has been paid to the selection of mechanical alignment systems (MAS) for assembly processes. Our analysis shows that if the MAS are not properly selected, the form errors as well surface waviness and roughness of the workpieces to be assembled can badly limit the level of accuracy achievable. A simulation-based methodology is described to study the alignment accuracy for multi-stage processes. Such cases are common, where fabrication operations are done on parts before they are assembled. The study shows that if the workpieces are aligned in the same orientation, using similar or identical MAS for the fabrication processes and assembly processes, then the effect of the form errors as well as surface waviness and roughness of the workpieces can be greatly suppressed.

Spatial stochastic simulation to aid local extreme value analysis of cyclone-induced wave heights when numerical hydrodynamic simulations are scarce

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Rohmer ◽  
Rodrigo Pedreros ◽  
Yann Krien
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Return Levels ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Local Extreme

<p>To estimate return levels of wave heights (Hs) induced by tropical cyclones at the coast, a commonly-used approach is to (1) randomly generate a large number of synthetic cyclone events (typically >1,000); (2) numerically simulate the corresponding Hs over the whole domain of interest; (3) extract the Hs values at the desired location at the coast and (4) perform the local extreme value analysis (EVA) to derive the corresponding return level. Step 2 is however very constraining because it often involves a numerical hydrodynamic simulator that can be prohibitive to run: this might limit the number of results to perform the local EVA (typically to several hundreds). In this communication, we propose a spatial stochastic simulation procedure to increase the database size of numerical results with synthetic maps of Hs that are stochastically generated. To do so, we propose to rely on a data-driven dimensionality-reduction method, either unsupervised (Principal Component Analysis) or supervised (Partial Least Squares Regression), that is trained with a limited number of pre-existing numerically simulated Hs maps. The procedure is applied to the Guadeloupe island and results are compared to the commonly-used approach applied to a large database of Hs values computed for nearly 2,000 synthetic cyclones (representative of 3,200 years – Krien et al., NHESS, 2015). When using only a hundred of cyclones, we show that the estimates of the 100-year return levels can be achieved with a mean absolute percentage error (derived from a bootstrap-based procedure) ranging between 5 and 15% around the coasts while keeping the width of the 95% confidence interval of the same order of magnitude than the one using the full database. Without synthetic Hs maps augmentation, the error and confidence interval width are both increased by nearly 100%. A careful attention is paid to the tuning of the approach by testing the sensitivity to the spatial domain size, the information loss due to data compression, and the number of cyclones. This study has been carried within the Carib-Coast INTERREG project (https://www.interreg-caraibes.fr/carib-coast).</p>

scholarly journals Development and Validation of a High-Resolution Melting Assay To Detect Azole Resistance in Aspergillus fumigatus

2017 ◽  
Vol 61 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Bernal-Martínez ◽  
H. Gil ◽  
O. Rivero-Menéndez ◽  
S. Gago ◽  
M. Cuenca-Estrella ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Aspergillus Fumigatus ◽  
Tandem Repeats ◽  
High Resolution Melting ◽  
Screening Method ◽  
Melting Curve ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Azole Resistance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Selection Of

ABSTRACT The global emergence of azole-resistant Aspergillus fumigatus strains is a growing public health concern. Different patterns of azole resistance are linked to mutations in cyp51A. Therefore, accurate characterization of the mechanisms underlying azole resistance is critical to guide selection of the most appropriate antifungal agent for patients with aspergillosis. This study describes a new sequencing-free molecular screening tool for early detection of the most frequent mutations known to be associated with azole resistance in A. fumigatus. PCRs targeting cyp51A mutations at positions G54, Y121, G448, and M220 and targeting different tandem repeats (TRs) in the promoter region were designed. All PCRs were performed simultaneously, using the same cycling conditions. Amplicons were then distinguished using a high-resolution melting assay. For standardization, 30 well-characterized azole-resistant A. fumigatus strains were used, yielding melting curve clusters for different resistance mechanisms for each target and allowing detection of the most frequent azole resistance mutations, i.e., G54E, G54V, G54R, G54W, Y121F, M220V, M220I, M220T, M220K, and G448S, and the tandem repeats TR34, TR46, and TR53. Validation of the method was performed using a blind panel of 80 A. fumigatus azole-susceptible or azole-resistant strains. All strains included in the blind panel were properly classified as susceptible or resistant with the developed method. The implementation of this screening method can reduce the time needed for the detection of azole-resistant A. fumigatus isolates and therefore facilitate selection of the best antifungal therapy in patients with aspergillosis.

scholarly journals High-resolution analysis of 1 day extreme precipitation in Sicily

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 2347-2358 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Maugeri ◽  
M. Brunetti ◽  
M. Garzoglio ◽  
C. Simolo
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Generalized Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Regional Frequency Analysis ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Data Set ◽  
High Quantiles

Abstract. Sicily, a major Mediterranean island, has experienced several exceptional precipitation episodes and floods during the last century, with serious damage to human life and the environment. Long-term, rational planning of urban development is indispensable to protect the population and to avoid huge economic losses in the future. This requires a thorough knowledge of the distributional features of extreme precipitation over the complex territory of Sicily. In this study, we perform a detailed investigation of observed 1 day precipitation extremes and their frequency distribution, based on a dense data set of high-quality, homogenized station records in 1921–2005. We estimate very high quantiles (return levels) corresponding to 10-, 50- and 100-year return periods, as predicted by a generalized extreme value distribution. Return level estimates are produced on a regular high-resolution grid (30 arcsec) using a variant of regional frequency analysis combined with regression techniques. Results clearly reflect the complexity of this region, and show the high vulnerability of its eastern and northeastern parts as those prone to the most intense and potentially damaging events.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Projections in a High-resolution Global Climate Model and from Downscaling by Statistical and Statistical-deterministic Methods

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-48
Author(s):  
Renzhi Jing ◽  
Ning Lin ◽  
Kerry Emanuel ◽  
Gabriel Vecchi ◽  
Thomas R. Knutson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Moderate Increase ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractIn this study, we investigate the response of tropical cyclones (TCs) to climate change by using the Princeton environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone (PepC) model and a statistical-deterministic method to downscale TCs using environmental conditions obtained from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-resolution Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR) model, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) emissions scenario for the North Atlantic basin. The downscaled TCs for the historical climate (1986-2005) are compared with those in the mid- (2016-35) and late-twenty-first century (2081-2100). The downscaled TCs are also compared with TCs explicitly simulated in HiFLOR. We show that while significantly more storms are detected in HiFLOR towards the end of the twenty-first century, the statistical-deterministic model projects a moderate increase in TC frequency, and PepC projects almost no increase in TC frequency. The changes in storm frequency in all three datasets are not significant in the mid-twenty-first century. All three project that storms will become more intense and the fraction of major hurricanes and Category 5 storms will significantly increase in the future climates. However, HiFLOR projects the largest increase in intensity while PepC projects the least. The results indicate that HiFLOR’s TC projection is more sensitive to climate change effects and statistical models are less sensitive. Nevertheless, in all three datasets, storm intensification and frequency increase lead to relatively small changes in TC threat as measured by the return level of landfall intensity.

scholarly journals Are trade-offs between flexibility and efficiency in systematic conservation planning avoidable ?

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrine Drira ◽  
Frida Ben Rais Lasram ◽  
Tarek Hattab ◽  
Yunne Jai Shin ◽  
Amel Ben Rejeb Jenhani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Conservation Planning ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Efficient Solutions ◽  
Reserve Selection ◽  
Systematic Conservation Planning ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Precise Control ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Selection Framework ◽  
Selection Of

AbstractSpecies distribution models (SDMs) have been proposed as a way to provide robust inference about species-specific sites suitabilities, and have been increasingly used in systematic conservation planning (SCP) applications. However, despite the fact that the use of SDMs in SCP may raise some potential issues, conservation studies have overlooked to assess the implications of SDMs uncertainties. The integration of these uncertainties in conservation solutions requires the development of a reserve-selection approach based on a suitable optimization algorithm. A large body of research has shown that exact optimization algorithms give very precise control over the gap to optimality of conservation solutions. However, their major shortcoming is that they generate a single binary and indivisible solution. Therefore, they provide no flexibility in the implementation of conservation solutions by stakeholders. On the other hand, heuristic decision-support systems provide large amounts of sub-optimal solutions, and therefore more flexibility. This flexibility arises from the availability of many alternative and sub-optimal conservation solutions. The two principles of efficiency and flexibility are implicitly linked in conservation applications, with the most mathematically efficient solutions being inflexible and the flexible solutions provided by heuristics suffering sub-optimality. In order to avoid the trade-offs between flexibility and efficiency in systematic conservation planning, we propose in this paper a new reserve-selection framework based on mathematical programming optimization combined with a post-selection of SDM outputs. This approach leads to a reserve-selection framework that might provide flexibility while simultaneously addressing efficiency and representativeness of conservation solutions and the adequacy of conservation targets. To exemplify the approach we a nalyzed an experimental design crossing pre- and post-selection of SDM outputs versus heuristics and exact mathematical optimizations. We used the Mediterranean Sea as a biogeographical template for our analyses, integrating the outputs of 8 SDM techniques for 438 fishes species.

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