scholarly journals Climate Risks and the Realized Volatility Oil and Gas Prices: Results of an Out-Of-Sample Forecasting Experiment

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (23) ◽  
pp. 8085
Author(s):  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Computational Linguistics ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Shrinkage Estimators ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas

We extend the widely-studied Heterogeneous Autoregressive Realized Volatility (HAR-RV) model to examine the out-of-sample forecasting value of climate-risk factors for the realized volatility of movements of the prices of crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas. The climate-risk factors have been constructed in recent literature using techniques of computational linguistics, and consist of daily proxies of physical (natural disasters and global warming) and transition (U.S. climate policy and international summits) risks involving the climate. We find that climate-risk factors contribute to out-of-sample forecasting performance mainly at a monthly and, in some cases, also at a weekly forecast horizon. We demonstrate that our main finding is robust to various modifications of our forecasting experiment, and to using three different popular shrinkage estimators to estimate the extended HAR-RV model. We also study longer forecast horizons of up to three months, and we account for the possibility that policymakers and forecasters may have an asymmetric loss function.

scholarly journals Investor Happiness and Predictability of the Realized Volatility of Oil Price

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Bonato ◽  
Konstantinos Gkillas ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch
Keyword(s):  
Potential Function ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Intraday Data ◽  
Shed Light

We use the the heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility (HAR-RV) model to analyze both in sample and out-of-sample whether a measure of investor happiness predicts the daily realized volatility of oil-price returns, where we use high-frequency intraday data to measure realized volatility. Full-sample estimates reveal that realized volatility is significantly negatively linked to investor happiness at a short forecast horizon. Similarly, out-of-sample results indicate that investor happiness significantly improves the accuracy of forecasts of realized volatility at a short forecast horizon. Results for a medium and a long forecast horizon are insignificant. We argue that our results shed light on the role played by speculation in oil products and the potential function of oil-related products as a hedge against risks in traditional financial assets.

A Review on Oil and Gas Pipeline Safety

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rakesh Yarlagadda ◽  
M. Affan Badar ◽  
Boris Blyukher
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Shock Waves ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Manufacturing Defects ◽  
Material Defects ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
Pipeline Safety ◽  
Day By Day

The safety of oil and gas pipelines has increasingly considered day by day to their vulnerability. Pipelines play a very critical role in the transportation of oil and natural-gas. As they have become the veins of oil industries, the productive design and analysis became more important. This made them more vulnerable to terrorist attacks. Although it is impossible to design pipelines to withstand any conceivable damage due to external (terrorist attacks, seismic effects) and internal effects (design and manufacturing defects), it is possible to improve the performance of pipelines. By understanding the design criteria, it saves lots of money and more over human lives and also protects the product in pipelines, which cannot be recovered and which is more and more scares day by day. This research aims: 1) to understand the different types of pipeline damages, reasons for their occurrence and their effects on the pipelines, such as mechanical damages, material defects, cracks, manufacturing defects, 2) to understand the explosions in pipelines, internal or external explosions and seismic distress, 3) to do research and literature review in analytical and numerical methods which allow researching the influence of shock waves (explosions, seismic), 4) to develop description of experimental research of pipelines subjected to shock waves (explosions, seismic), 5) to establish an effective methodology (develop mathematical model) to study the risk management in pipeline exploitation which can be subjected to such conditions like shock waves (caused by explosions, seismic, as well as mining activities) on pipeline systems (buried, on surface, or underwater), and 6) to establish criteria for risk management. This paper includes a review of the related literature covering the first two goals.

Climate Risk Management

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-116
Author(s):  
Klaus Keller ◽  
Casey Helgeson ◽  
Vivek Srikrishnan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Basic Research ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Climate Risk Management ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
Implementing Strategies

Accelerating global climate change drives new climate risks. People around the world are researching, designing, and implementing strategies to manage these risks. Identifying and implementing sound climate risk management strategies poses nontrivial challenges including ( a) linking the required disciplines, ( b) identifying relevant values and objectives, ( c) identifying and quantifying important uncertainties, ( d) resolving interactions between decision levers and the system dynamics, ( e) quantifying the trade-offs between diverse values under deep and dynamic uncertainties, ( f) communicating to inform decisions, and ( g) learning from the decision-making needs to inform research design. Here we review these challenges and avenues to overcome them. ▪  People and institutions are confronted with emerging and dynamic climate risks. ▪  Stakeholder values are central to defining the decision problem. ▪  Mission-oriented basic research helps to improve the design of climate risk management strategies.

On Approaches to Taking into Account the Risks of Changing Climatic Conditions when Planning and Implementing Oil and Gas Projects

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-65
Author(s):  
P. N. Mikheev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
The Impact

The article discusses issues related to the impact of climate change on the objects of the oil and gas industry. The main trends in climate change on a global and regional (on the territory of Russian Federation) scale are outlined. Possible approaches to the identification and assessment of climate risks are discussed. The role of climatic risks as physical factors at various stages of development and implementation of oil and gas projects is shown. Based on the example of oil and gas facilities in the Tomsk region, a qualitative assessment of the level of potential risk from a weather and climatic perspective is given. Approaches to creating a risk management and adaptation system to climate change are presented.

scholarly journals Well Integrity Analysis and Application Based on FTA Method

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Lili Yan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Oil And Gas Production ◽  
Wellbore Integrity ◽  
Minimum Path ◽  
Failure Risk ◽  
Production Run

<p><em>With the increase of development the well integ</em><em>c</em><em>rity</em><em> </em><em>problem are becoming more and more serious. This article uses the </em><em>F</em><em>ault </em><em>T</em><em>ree </em><em>A</em><em>nalysis (FTA) method for many factors, such as completion, production and operation process, pressure annulus, the cementing quality, the wellhead system and leakage of pipe string.</em><em> </em><em>Many wellbore risk factors to conduct a comprehensive analysis and evaluation. Through the qualitative analysis of wellbore integrity failure risk, determining the level of risk factors and establishing the damage analysis model of the wellbore. According to the selected blocks in Shengli Oilfield example analysis of single wells find out the minimum cut sets, the minimum path sets and structure importance. The results showed that the selected block probability of top event is calculated and it’s 0.9961, and the actual selection conforms to statistics prove that the proposed based on the FTA wellbore damage risk analysis method is feasible, and through quantitative analysis and calculation of basic events of different important degree of parameters.</em></p><p><em>According to these risk factors for prevention of failure risk control measures are put forward, which provides reference for predict wellbore integrity to ensure the safety of oil and gas production run smoothly.</em></p>

LEGAL MECHANISMS FOR STIMULATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE OIL AND GAS SECTOR OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viacheslav Olegovich Mosalygin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Significant Part ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

For more than 15 years, a significant part of the budget revenues of the Russian Federation have been tax revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons, in particular oil and natural gas. Despite the desire of our government to minimize its dependence on oil and gas revenues, the government continues to implement measures to encourage both small and large companies by providing some tax-related benefits, thereby encouraging the fields to further develop and expand.

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