Overstocked Agricultural Produce and Emergency Supply System in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Responses from China

The spread of COVID-19 has affected not only public health but also agriculture, raising global concerns regarding the food system. As an immediate impact of COVID-19, farmers around the globe have had difficulties with sales, resulting in large amounts of overstocked agricultural products and food loss. This further threatens the livelihood of rural, poor farmers and impacts sustainable production. To provide a better understanding of the overstocking situation after the outbreak of the pandemic, this study depicts the distribution characteristics of overstocked agricultural products in China. After analyzing a nationwide data set collected from 3482 individuals/organizations by the Chinese Agri-products Marketing Association after the outbreak of the pandemic, we found that some of the initial prevention and control measures disrupted sales channels, and in turn, caused the farmers to suffer losses. The impact was more severe in perishable products and their production areas, as well as in poverty-stricken regions. Then, we identified China’s quick and effective actions to match the supply and demand. These findings suggest that emergency responses should coordinate the relationship between emergency actions and the necessary logistics of agricultural production. To prepare for the possibility of such shock in the future, the government should take actions to clear logistics obstacles for necessary transportation, keep enhancing the fundamental infrastructure and effective mechanism of the food supply chain, and actively include innovative techniques to build a more resilient food system.

Download Full-text

Dynamical analysis of the spread of African swine fever with the live pig price in China

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering ◽

10.3934/mbe.2021403 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (6) ◽

pp. 8123-8148

Author(s):

Yihao Huang ◽

◽

Jing Li ◽

Juan Zhang ◽

Zhen Jin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Supply And Demand ◽

African Swine Fever ◽

Control Measures ◽

Basic Reproductive Number ◽

Dynamical Analysis ◽

Critical Conditions ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Price Function ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact

<abstract><p>Pork makes up the highest proportion of household expenditure on meat in China and supply and demand have been basically stable in the past decade. However, the catastrophic outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in August 2018 disrupted the balance and reduced the national herd by half within six months. The consequence was a gross lack of supply to the market and consumer demand was unable to be met. Accordingly, live pig prices rose sharply from 2019. In order to assess the influence of ASF on the price of the live pigs, we use a price function to characterize the relationship between price of the live pigs and the nation's pig stock, and then establish a time delay ASF epidemic dynamical model with the price function. By analyzing the dynamical behaviors of the model, we calculate the basic reproductive number, discuss the stability of equilibrium, and obtain the critical conditions for Hopf bifurcation. The model reasonableness is confirmed by carrying out data fitting and parameter estimation based on price data of the live pigs, the pig stock data and the outbreak data of ASF. By performing sensitivity analysis, we intuitively show the impact of ASF on the price of live pigs and the pig stocks, and assess the key factors affecting the outbreak of ASF. The conclusion is drawn that, with the control measures adopted by related government department in China, the basic reproductive number ($ R_0 = 0.6005 $) means that the ASF epidemic has been controlled. Moreover, the price of the live pig increases linearly with $ R_0 $, while the effect of the number of infected pigs on the subsequent price is non-linear related. Our findings suggest that society and the government should pay more attention to the prevention of animal disease epidemics.</p></abstract>

Download Full-text

365 days with COVID-19 in Iran: data analysis and epidemic curves

10.1101/2021.03.02.21252694 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ebrahim Sahafizadeh ◽

Saeed Talatian Azad

Keyword(s):

Death Rate ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

Control Measures ◽

Social Distancing ◽

The Government ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

Reported Data ◽

And Control ◽

The Impact

AbstractBackgroundThe first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Iran were reported on February 19, 2020. This study aimed to analyze the epidemic curves and to investigate the correlation between epidemic parameters and furthermore to analyze the impact of control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Iran during 365 days of the epidemic.MethodsWe used data from February 20, 2020, to February 18, 2021, on the number of COVID-19 cases reported by Iranian governments. Pearson correlation coefficient was applied to investigate the correlation between different epidemic parameters. The number of daily deaths per daily new cases was averaged to calculate daily death rate and the same method was used to investigate the rate of daily positive tests. Furthermore, we employed two different methods to calculate the effective reproduction number using reported data.ResultsThe results showed that there was a strong correlation between the number of daily deaths and the number of daily new cases (specially the admitted cases). The results also indicated that the mean of daily death rate of COVID-19 during 365 days was 4.9 percent, and averagely 13.9 percent of daily tests results were positive. Furthermore, epidemic curves showed that implementing strict social distancing measures effectively reduced the number of confirmed cases. The effective reproduction curve indicated that social distancing is still necessary to control the spread of COVID-19 in Iran.ConclusionsAnalyzing the prevention and control measures indicated that the strict social distancing implemented by the government effectively reduces the number of new cases and deaths. The curve of reproduction number also showed that effective reproduction number is still above one; hence, it is necessary to continue strict social distancing and control travelling to prevent causing another wave of outbreak especially in Persian New Year.

Download Full-text

Analysis and prediction of the coronavirus disease epidemic in China based on an individual-based model

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-76969-4 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Zuiyuan Guo ◽

Dan Xiao

Keyword(s):

Reproduction Number ◽

Control Measures ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Individual Based Model ◽

Whole Process ◽

Coordinate Descent Algorithm ◽

Initial Stage ◽

The Government ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Control

AbstractWe established a stochastic individual-based model and simulated the whole process of occurrence, development, and control of the coronavirus disease epidemic and the infectors and patients leaving Hubei Province before the traffic was closed in China. Additionally, the basic reproduction number (R0) and number of infectors and patients who left Hubei were estimated using the coordinate descent algorithm. The median R0 at the initial stage of the epidemic was 4.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.82–5.17). Before the traffic lockdown was implemented in Hubei, 2000 (95% CI 1982–2030) infectors and patients had left Hubei and traveled throughout the country. The model estimated that if the government had taken prevention and control measures 1 day later, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in the whole country would have increased by 32.1%. If the lockdown of Hubei was imposed 1 day in advance, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in other provinces would have decreased by 7.7%. The stochastic model could fit the officially issued data well and simulate the evolution process of the epidemic. The intervention measurements nationwide have effectively curbed the human-to-human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

Download Full-text

The Dynamic Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Log Prices in China: An Analysis Based on the TVP-VAR Model

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12040449 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 449

Author(s):

Chenlu Tao ◽

Gang Diao ◽

Baodong Cheng

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Structural Changes ◽

Raw Materials ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Control Measures ◽

Var Model ◽

Time Varying ◽

Wood Industry ◽

The Impact

China’s wood industry is vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic since wood raw materials and sales of products are dependent on the international market. This study seeks to explore the speed of log price recovery under different control measures, and to perhaps find a better way to respond to the pandemic. With the daily data, we utilized the time-varying parameter autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model, which can incorporate structural changes in emergencies into the model through time-varying parameters, to estimate the dynamic impact of the pandemic on log prices at different time points. We found that the impact of the pandemic on oil prices and Renminbi exchange rate is synchronized with the severity of the pandemic, and the ascending in the exchange rate would lead to an increase in log prices, while oil prices would not. Moreover, the impulse response in June converged faster than in February 2020. Thus, partial quarantine is effective. However, the pandemic’s impact on log prices is not consistent with changes of the pandemic. After the pandemic eased in June 2020, the impact of the pandemic on log prices remained increasing. This means that the COVID-19 pandemic has long-term influences on the wood industry, and the work resumption was not smooth, thus the imbalance between supply and demand should be resolved as soon as possible. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the development of the domestic wood market and realize a “dual circulation” strategy as the pandemic becomes a “new normal”.

Download Full-text

A Study on the Impact of Schemes and Programmes of Government of India on Agriculture to Increase Productivity, Profitability, Financial Inclusion, and Welfare of Farmers to Transform them into Modern Society

International Journal of Management, Technology, and Social Sciences ◽

10.47992/ijmts.2581.6012.0167 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 231-243

Author(s):

Mahesh K. M. ◽

P. S. Aithal ◽

Sharma K. R. S.

Keyword(s):

Rural Areas ◽

Financial Services ◽

Modern Society ◽

Modern Technology ◽

Mobile App ◽

Financial Inclusion ◽

Agricultural Products ◽

Theoretical Concepts ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact

Purpose: The foremost intent of this research article is to create awareness about various schemes for the productive sector of agriculture. Through this study, the level of performance of these agricultural schemes and programmes were analysed that will be helpful for the attainment of financial inclusion. Hence it is necessary to know about various schemes and their making to connect the beneficiaries. Agriculture is the basic source of food supply, production, processing, promotion and distribution. Agricultural products contribute to Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.) and generate employment in rural areas. They transform the lives of the farmers in modern society. The government of India has introduced Minimum Support Price (MPS), MIF, PMKSY, PMFBY, e-NAM, PM-KISAN, PMJDY, PM-KUSUM, PKVY, NAMS, and MGNREGS. The mobile app KisanSuvidha and innovative programmes like Kisan Rail, KrishiUdaan double the farmers’ Income (DFI). These help in transforming village economy, coverage of irrigation, crop insurance, and stabilizing the income. They also ensure financial support, flow of credit and Direct Benefit transfer of subsidies and funds to beneficiaries. Adopting modern technology, farm-based activity, poultry, dairy, forestry, beekeeping and with the support of SHGs which will directly impact productivity, profitability, financial inclusion, and the welfare of farmers in the 21st century and development of the country’s economy. Design/ methodology/approaches: This study is all about the theoretical concepts based on analysis of various schemes and interconnect. Findings and results: This study reveals that the effectiveness of various agricultural programs and also identifies the benefits and beneficiaries of these schemes. Under this research, various financial services, subsidies, funds released, online platform for agricultural products, funds for micro-irrigation, and so on benefits provided by the government of India were studied. Originality/value: Analysed the various schemes and compelled its beneficiaries and develop a modern to achieve financial inclusion and economic growth through the study. Type of Paper: Research Analysis.

Download Full-text

Impact of the Inflow Population From Outbreak Areas on the COVID-19 Epidemic in Yunnan Province and the Recommended Control Measures: A Preliminary Study

Frontiers in Public Health ◽

10.3389/fpubh.2020.609974 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

Author(s):

Zhong Sun ◽

Guozhong He ◽

Ninghao Huang ◽

Hongyu Chen ◽

Shuwei Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Yunnan Province ◽

Clinical Manifestations ◽

Control Measures ◽

Proper Management ◽

Outbreak Areas ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Gender ◽

And Control ◽

The Impact

Background: COVID-19 developed into a global pandemic in 2020 and poses challenges regarding the prevention and control capabilities of countries. A large number of inbound travelers from other regions could lead to a renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in the local regions. Globally, as a result of the imbalance in the control of the epidemic, all countries are facing the risk of a renewed COVID-19 outbreak brought about by travelers from epidemic areas. Therefore, studies on a proper management of the inbound travelers are urgent.Methods: We collected a total of 4,733,414 inbound travelers and 174 COVID-19 diagnosed patients in Yunnan province from 21 January 2020 to 20 February 2020. Data on place of origin, travel history, age, and gender, as well as whether they had suspected clinical manifestations for inbound travelers in Yunnan were collected. The impact of inbound travelers on the local epidemic was analyzed with a collinear statistical analysis and the effect of the control measures on the epidemic was evaluated with a sophisticated modeling approach.Results: Of the 174 COVID-19 patients, 60.9% were not from Yunnan, and 76.4% had a history of travel in Hubei. The amount of new daily cases in Yunnan was significant correlated with the number of inbound travelers from Hubei and suspected cases among them. Using Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered (SEIR) model analysis, we found that the prevention and control measures dropped the local R0 down to 1.07 in Yunnan province.Conclusions: Our preliminary analysis showed that the proper management of inbound travelers from outbreak areas has a significantly positive effect on the prevention and control of the virus. In the process of resettlement, some effective measures taken by Yunnan province may provide an important reference for preventing the renewed COVID-19 outbreak in other regions.

Download Full-text

Does the New Rural Pension System Promote Farmland Transfer in the Context of Aging in Rural China: Evidence from the CHARLS

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph16193592 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 (19) ◽

pp. 3592

Author(s):

Yahui Wang ◽

Qingyuan Yang ◽

Liangjie Xin ◽

Jingyu Zhang

Keyword(s):

Pension System ◽

Rural China ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Participation Rate ◽

The Elderly ◽

Rental Market ◽

Land Transfer ◽

Land Rental ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact

The lack or instability of the pension system for the elderly in rural China has become a paramount obstacle for sustainable land transfer, namely land use right transfer among farmers, in the context of aging. The New Rural Pension System (NRPS), a pilot project that provided basic security for the elderly, was implemented in 10% of counties in 2009 and rapidly promoted nationwide in China. This study evaluates the impact of NRPS on farmland transfer by developing econometric models by employing the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) from 2011 to 2015. The participation rate in NRPS increased from 25.87% in 2011 to 80.85% in 2015, and the participation rate in farmland transfer rose from 11.56% to 24.04%. Everything else being held equal, the probability of farmers who transferred out their land increased by approximately 13% and the land area has been transferred increased by 11.2% due to participation in NRPS, indicating that the NRPS improved the operation efficiency of land rental market. Furthermore, the heterogeneity analysis showed that the probability and area mentioned above had a significant upward trend with the increase of the time and insured amount of participation in NRPS, which reduced dependence on farmland for the elderly and promoted the sustainability of land transfer. The government should further encourage farmers to increase the coverage and insured amount of pension system in the context of aging. Meanwhile, a platform to promote land transfer should be established to provide information about land supply and demand and reduce the transaction cost of land rental market.

Download Full-text

Bicameralism and government formation: does bicameral incongruence affect bargaining delays?

European Political Science Review ◽

10.1017/s1755773920000235 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 469-484

Author(s):

Daniela Giannetti ◽

Andrea Pedrazzani ◽

Luca Pinto

Keyword(s):

Eastern European ◽

Government Formation ◽

Bargaining Process ◽

Additional Element ◽

Data Set ◽

Coalition Governments ◽

Relevant Role ◽

The Government ◽

Control Hypothesis ◽

The Impact

AbstractThe effects of bicameral legislatures on government formation have attracted scholarly attention since Lijphart’s (1984) seminal contribution. Previous research found support for the ‘veto control hypothesis,’ showing that bicameralism affects coalition governments’ composition and duration. However, the effects of bicameralism on the duration of the bargaining process over government formation have yet to be explored. Our work contributes to this area of research by focusing on the impact of bicameralism on bargaining delays. We show that the duration of the bargaining process over government formation decreases at increasing levels of partisan incongruence of the two chambers, especially in those legislative assemblies in which the upper chamber plays a relevant role in the policy-making process. Such empirical evidence is in contrast with the conventional expectation according to which bicameralism should delay the government formation process, as it introduces an additional element of complexity in the bargaining environment. We test our hypothesis by using a novel data set about the partisan composition of upper and lower chambers in 12 Western and Eastern European democracies over the postwar period.

Download Full-text

Exploring the impact of COVID-19 on the taxi industry in the City of Johannesburg

Harvard Deusto Business Research ◽

10.48132/hdbr.329 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 272-294

Author(s):

Nicola Wakelin-Theron ◽

Wilfred Isioma Ukpere

Keyword(s):

Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Insurance Fund ◽

Research Approach ◽

Individual Interviews ◽

The Government ◽

Technological Means ◽

Taxi Industry ◽

The Impact ◽

The City

The tourism sector is currently one of the hardest hit by the pandemic, with impacts on both travel supply and demand. The transport system forms a key part of tourism, including the tourist experience at a destination. This research sought to understand how the taxi industry operates within the City of Johannesburg under the government restrictions imposed during COVID-19. The study adopted a qualitative research approach, based on interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA) to explore the topic. Semi-structured individual interviews were conducted with participants who were purposively selected from the Johannesburg CBD taxi rank. Insufficient sanitisation and the breaching of curfews were observed. Limited guidance was provided during the initial stages of the pandemic, with no formal training. Financial support was made available, but drivers did not receive funds, as they did not comply with the requirements for membership of the Unemployment Insurance Fund (UIF) and Temporary Employee Relief Scheme (TERS) (Melzer, 2020). Illegal full-capacity loading and price increases were also evident. All participants seem to have expressed some form of anxiety, loneliness and uncertainty. Few suggestions were proposed towards sustainable practices and innovative technological means to support the industry during the lockdown and going forward.

Download Full-text

Zika outbreak, resilient health systems, and women’s sexual and reproductive health: a qualitative study in Colombia

10.21203/rs.2.19397/v1 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Juan Carlos Rivillas-García ◽

Luz Janeth Forero-Martinez ◽

Mariana Calderon-Jaramillo ◽

Victoria Vargas-Pinzón ◽

Rocío Murad-Rivera ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Reproductive Health ◽

Health System ◽

Health Care Providers ◽

Sexual And Reproductive Health ◽

Technical Equipment ◽

Care Providers ◽

Data Set ◽

National Response ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background There is substantial evidence of the profound consequences of Zika on women's Sexual and Reproductive Health. Health system resilience begins by measuring critical capacities ahead of a crisis such as zika outbreak. Even though zika as vector-borne disease is well documented, there is dearth of studies linking Zika with women's Sexual and Reproductive Health. The main objective of this study was to analyze the national response to the Zika epidemic and its relation to women’s sexual and reproductive health matters through key implementation mechanisms in order to promote resilience of the health system in five cities in Colombia.Methods This study used a qualitative design to enable an in-depth exploration of the national response to the Zika epidemic and sexual and reproductive health matters through key implementation mechanisms (based on facilitators and gaps) within the health system. The overall data set was comprised of 31 semi-structured individual interviews (23 women and 8 men), 25 interviews with key informants responsible for the implementation of the Zika Virus Response Plan; six interviews with pregnant women diagnosed with Zika; and five focus groups discussions with communities (n=122 participants) in five cities in Colombia: Barranquilla, Cucuta, Los Patios, San Andres and Soledad.Results The findings revealed the three major facilitators that promoted the implementation of actions to address the Zika epidemic: i) the role of health care providers; ii) the development of technical equipment capabilities; and iii) inter-institutional coordination. The study also identified implementation gaps: i) absence of a human rights and sexual and reproductive health approach; ii) focus on territorial actions centered on mosquito management; and iii) limited attitudes, behaviors and knowledge at the community level.Conclusion This study provided a comprehensive insight of critical facilitating processes and gaps in the implementation of the government response during the Zika epidemic in Colombia. This study reveals that the lack of understanding of the intersection between gender, the Zika epidemic and Sexual and Reproductive Health limited the adoption, development and implementation of a more comprehensive responses to address the impact on women’s sexual and reproductive health.

Download Full-text