scholarly journals Predicting Future Driving Risk of Crash-Involved Drivers Based on a Systematic Machine Learning Framework

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Wang ◽  
Lin Liu ◽  
Chengcheng Xu ◽  
Weitao Lv
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Risky Driving ◽  
Learning Framework ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Driving Risk ◽  
Time Periods

The objective of this paper is to predict the future driving risk of crash-involved drivers in Kunshan, China. A systematic machine learning framework is proposed to deal with three critical technical issues: 1. defining driving risk; 2. developing risky driving factors; 3. developing a reliable and explicable machine learning model. High-risk (HR) and low-risk (LR) drivers were defined by five different scenarios. A number of features were extracted from seven-year crash/violation records. Drivers’ two-year prior crash/violation information was used to predict their driving risk in the subsequent two years. Using a one-year rolling time window, prediction models were developed for four consecutive time periods: 2013–2014, 2014–2015, 2015–2016, and 2016–2017. Four tree-based ensemble learning techniques were attempted, including random forest (RF), Adaboost with decision tree, gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), and extreme gradient boosting decision tree (XGboost). A temporal transferability test and a follow-up study were applied to validate the trained models. The best scenario defining driving risk was multi-dimensional, encompassing crash recurrence, severity, and fault commitment. GBDT appeared to be the best model choice across all time periods, with an acceptable average precision (AP) of 0.68 on the most recent datasets (i.e., 2016–2017). Seven of nine top features were related to risky driving behaviors, which presented non-linear relationships with driving risk. Model transferability held within relatively short time intervals (1–2 years). Appropriate risk definition, complicated violation/crash features, and advanced machine learning techniques need to be considered for risk prediction task. The proposed machine learning approach is promising, so that safety interventions can be launched more effectively.

scholarly journals Identification of Potential Type II Diabetes in a Large-Scale Chinese Population Using a Systematic Machine Learning Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Mingyue Xue ◽  
Yinxia Su ◽  
Chen Li ◽  
Shuxia Wang ◽  
Hua Yao
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Type Ii Diabetes ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Systolic Pressure ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Significant Feature ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Background. An estimated 425 million people globally have diabetes, accounting for 12% of the world’s health expenditures, and the number continues to grow, placing a huge burden on the healthcare system, especially in those remote, underserved areas. Methods. A total of 584,168 adult subjects who have participated in the national physical examination were enrolled in this study. The risk factors for type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were identified by p values and odds ratio, using logistic regression (LR) based on variables of physical measurement and a questionnaire. Combined with the risk factors selected by LR, we used a decision tree, a random forest, AdaBoost with a decision tree (AdaBoost), and an extreme gradient boosting decision tree (XGBoost) to identify individuals with T2DM, compared the performance of the four machine learning classifiers, and used the best-performing classifier to output the degree of variables’ importance scores of T2DM. Results. The results indicated that XGBoost had the best performance (accuracy=0.906, precision=0.910, recall=0.902, F‐1=0.906, and AUC=0.968). The degree of variables’ importance scores in XGBoost showed that BMI was the most significant feature, followed by age, waist circumference, systolic pressure, ethnicity, smoking amount, fatty liver, hypertension, physical activity, drinking status, dietary ratio (meat to vegetables), drink amount, smoking status, and diet habit (oil loving). Conclusions. We proposed a classifier based on LR-XGBoost which used fourteen variables of patients which are easily obtained and noninvasive as predictor variables to identify potential incidents of T2DM. The classifier can accurately screen the risk of diabetes in the early phrase, and the degree of variables’ importance scores gives a clue to prevent diabetes occurrence.

scholarly journals Machine Learning-Based Three-Month Outcome Prediction in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Single Cerebrovascular-Specialty Hospital Study in South Korea

Diagnostics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1909
Author(s):  
Dougho Park ◽  
Eunhwan Jeong ◽  
Haejong Kim ◽  
Hae Wook Pyun ◽  
Haemin Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Functional Outcome ◽  
Outcome Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Background: Functional outcomes after acute ischemic stroke are of great concern to patients and their families, as well as physicians and surgeons who make the clinical decisions. We developed machine learning (ML)-based functional outcome prediction models in acute ischemic stroke. Methods: This retrospective study used a prospective cohort database. A total of 1066 patients with acute ischemic stroke between January 2019 and March 2021 were included. Variables such as demographic factors, stroke-related factors, laboratory findings, and comorbidities were utilized at the time of admission. Five ML algorithms were applied to predict a favorable functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale 0 or 1) at 3 months after stroke onset. Results: Regularized logistic regression showed the best performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.86. Support vector machines represented the second-highest AUC of 0.85 with the highest F1-score of 0.86, and finally, all ML models applied achieved an AUC > 0.8. The National Institute of Health Stroke Scale at admission and age were consistently the top two important variables for generalized logistic regression, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting models. Conclusions: ML-based functional outcome prediction models for acute ischemic stroke were validated and proven to be readily applicable and useful.

scholarly journals Machine learning techniques to predict daily rainfall amount

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chalachew Muluken Liyew ◽  
Haileyesus Amsaya Melese
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Correlation Technique ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

AbstractPredicting the amount of daily rainfall improves agricultural productivity and secures food and water supply to keep citizens healthy. To predict rainfall, several types of research have been conducted using data mining and machine learning techniques of different countries’ environmental datasets. An erratic rainfall distribution in the country affects the agriculture on which the economy of the country depends on. Wise use of rainfall water should be planned and practiced in the country to minimize the problem of the drought and flood occurred in the country. The main objective of this study is to identify the relevant atmospheric features that cause rainfall and predict the intensity of daily rainfall using machine learning techniques. The Pearson correlation technique was used to select relevant environmental variables which were used as an input for the machine learning model. The dataset was collected from the local meteorological office at Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia to measure the performance of three machine learning techniques (Multivariate Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boost). Root mean squared error and Mean absolute Error methods were used to measure the performance of the machine learning model. The result of the study revealed that the Extreme Gradient Boosting machine learning algorithm performed better than others.

scholarly journals MRI-Based Machine Learning in Differentiation Between Benign and Malignant Breast Lesions

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanjie Zhao ◽  
Rong Chen ◽  
Ting Zhang ◽  
Chaoyue Chen ◽  
Muhetaer Muhelisa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Texture Analysis ◽  
Training Group ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Breast Lesions ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Malignant Breast ◽  
Benign Breast Lesions

BackgroundDifferential diagnosis between benign and malignant breast lesions is of crucial importance relating to follow-up treatment. Recent development in texture analysis and machine learning may lead to a new solution to this problem.MethodThis current study enrolled a total number of 265 patients (benign breast lesions:malignant breast lesions = 71:194) diagnosed in our hospital and received magnetic resonance imaging between January 2014 and August 2017. Patients were randomly divided into the training group and validation group (4:1), and two radiologists extracted their texture features from the contrast-enhanced T1-weighted images. We performed five different feature selection methods including Distance correlation, Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), random forest (RF), eXtreme gradient boosting (Xgboost) and five independent classification models were built based on Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) algorithm.ResultsAll five models showed promising results to discriminate malignant breast lesions from benign breast lesions, and the areas under the curve (AUCs) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were all above 0.830 in both training and validation groups. The model with a better discriminating ability was the combination of LDA + gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT). The sensitivity, specificity, AUC, and accuracy in the training group were 0.814, 0.883, 0.922, and 0.868, respectively; LDA + random forest (RF) also suggests promising results with the AUC of 0.906 in the training group.ConclusionThe evidence of this study, while preliminary, suggested that a combination of MRI texture analysis and LDA algorithm could discriminate benign breast lesions from malignant breast lesions. Further multicenter researches in this field would be of great help in the validation of the result.

scholarly journals Modelos de machine learning para predição do sucesso de startups

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 28-55
Author(s):  
Fabiano Rodrigues ◽  
Francisco Aparecido Rodrigues ◽  
Thelma Valéria Rocha Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Initial Public Offering ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Public Offering

Este estudo analisa resultados obtidos com modelos de machine learning para predição do sucesso de startups. Como proxy de sucesso considera-se a perspectiva do investidor, na qual a aquisição da startup ou realização de IPO (Initial Public Offering) são formas de recuperação do investimento. A revisão da literatura aborda startups e veículos de financiamento, estudos anteriores sobre predição do sucesso de startups via modelos de machine learning, e trade-offs entre técnicas de machine learning. Na parte empírica, foi realizada uma pesquisa quantitativa baseada em dados secundários oriundos da plataforma americana Crunchbase, com startups de 171 países. O design de pesquisa estabeleceu como filtro startups fundadas entre junho/2010 e junho/2015, e uma janela de predição entre junho/2015 e junho/2020 para prever o sucesso das startups. A amostra utilizada, após etapa de pré-processamento dos dados, foi de 18.571 startups. Foram utilizados seis modelos de classificação binária para a predição: Regressão Logística, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Extreme Gradiente Boosting, Support Vector Machine e Rede Neural. Ao final, os modelos Random Forest e Extreme Gradient Boosting apresentaram os melhores desempenhos na tarefa de classificação. Este artigo, envolvendo machine learning e startups, contribui para áreas de pesquisa híbridas ao mesclar os campos da Administração e Ciência de Dados. Além disso, contribui para investidores com uma ferramenta de mapeamento inicial de startups na busca de targets com maior probabilidade de sucesso.   

scholarly journals Prediction of Masked Hypertension and Masked Uncontrolled Hypertension Using Machine Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming-Hui Hung ◽  
Ling-Chieh Shih ◽  
Yu-Ching Wang ◽  
Hsin-Bang Leu ◽  
Po-Hsun Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Uncontrolled Hypertension ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Masked Hypertension ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
Hypertensive Patients ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Objective: This study aimed to develop machine learning-based prediction models to predict masked hypertension and masked uncontrolled hypertension using the clinical characteristics of patients at a single outpatient visit.Methods: Data were derived from two cohorts in Taiwan. The first cohort included 970 hypertensive patients recruited from six medical centers between 2004 and 2005, which were split into a training set (n = 679), a validation set (n = 146), and a test set (n = 145) for model development and internal validation. The second cohort included 416 hypertensive patients recruited from a single medical center between 2012 and 2020, which was used for external validation. We used 33 clinical characteristics as candidate variables to develop models based on logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGboost), and artificial neural network (ANN).Results: The four models featured high sensitivity and high negative predictive value (NPV) in internal validation (sensitivity = 0.914–1.000; NPV = 0.853–1.000) and external validation (sensitivity = 0.950–1.000; NPV = 0.875–1.000). The RF, XGboost, and ANN models showed much higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (0.799–0.851 in internal validation, 0.672–0.837 in external validation) than the LR model. Among the models, the RF model, composed of 6 predictor variables, had the best overall performance in both internal and external validation (AUC = 0.851 and 0.837; sensitivity = 1.000 and 1.000; specificity = 0.609 and 0.580; NPV = 1.000 and 1.000; accuracy = 0.766 and 0.721, respectively).Conclusion: An effective machine learning-based predictive model that requires data from a single clinic visit may help to identify masked hypertension and masked uncontrolled hypertension.

scholarly journals Application of Machine-Learning-Based Fusion Model in Visibility Forecast: A Case Study of Shanghai, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2096
Author(s):  
Zhongqi Yu ◽  
Yuanhao Qu ◽  
Yunxin Wang ◽  
Jinghui Ma ◽  
Yu Cao
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Environmental Modeling ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Fusion Model ◽  
Light Gradient ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

A visibility forecast model called a boosting-based fusion model (BFM) was established in this study. The model uses a fusion machine learning model based on multisource data, including air pollutants, meteorological observations, moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, and an operational regional atmospheric environmental modeling System for eastern China (RAEMS) outputs. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), a light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), and a numerical prediction method, i.e., RAEMS were fused to establish this prediction model. Three sets of prediction models, that is, BFM, LightGBM based on multisource data (LGBM), and RAEMS, were used to conduct visibility prediction tasks. The training set was from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2018 and used several data pre-processing methods, including a synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) data resampling, a loss function adjustment, and a 10-fold cross verification. Moreover, apart from the basic features (variables), more spatial and temporal gradient features were considered. The testing set was from 1 January to 31 December 2019 and was adopted to validate the feasibility of the BFM, LGBM, and RAEMS. Statistical indicators confirmed that the machine learning methods improved the RAEMS forecast significantly and consistently. The root mean square error and correlation coefficient of BFM for the next 24/48 h were 5.01/5.47 km and 0.80/0.77, respectively, which were much higher than those of RAEMS. The statistics and binary score analysis for different areas in Shanghai also proved the reliability and accuracy of using BFM, particularly in low-visibility forecasting. Overall, BFM is a suitable tool for predicting the visibility. It provides a more accurate visibility forecast for the next 24 and 48 h in Shanghai than LGBM and RAEMS. The results of this study provide support for real-time operational visibility forecasts.

scholarly journals Classification of Agriculture Farm Machinery Using Machine Learning and Internet of Things

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 403
Author(s):  
Muhammad Waleed ◽  
Tai-Won Um ◽  
Tariq Kamal ◽  
Syed Muhammad Usman
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Farm Machinery ◽  
Learning Techniques

In this paper, we apply the multi-class supervised machine learning techniques for classifying the agriculture farm machinery. The classification of farm machinery is important when performing the automatic authentication of field activity in a remote setup. In the absence of a sound machine recognition system, there is every possibility of a fraudulent activity taking place. To address this need, we classify the machinery using five machine learning techniques—K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting (GB). For training of the model, we use the vibration and tilt of machinery. The vibration and tilt of machinery are recorded using the accelerometer and gyroscope sensors, respectively. The machinery included the leveler, rotavator and cultivator. The preliminary analysis on the collected data revealed that the farm machinery (when in operation) showed big variations in vibration and tilt, but observed similar means. Additionally, the accuracies of vibration-based and tilt-based classifications of farm machinery show good accuracy when used alone (with vibration showing slightly better numbers than the tilt). However, the accuracies improve further when both (the tilt and vibration) are used together. Furthermore, all five machine learning algorithms used for classification have an accuracy of more than 82%, but random forest was the best performing. The gradient boosting and random forest show slight over-fitting (about 9%), but both algorithms produce high testing accuracy. In terms of execution time, the decision tree takes the least time to train, while the gradient boosting takes the most time.

scholarly journals Improving Sports Outcome Prediction Process Using Integrating Adaptive Weighted Features and Machine Learning Techniques

Processes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 1563
Author(s):  
Chi-Jie Lu ◽  
Tian-Shyug Lee ◽  
Chien-Chih Wang ◽  
Wei-Jen Chen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Outcome Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Adaptive Weighting ◽  
Stochastic Gradient Boosting ◽  
Basketball Game ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Developing an effective sports performance analysis process is an attractive issue in sports team management. This study proposed an improved sports outcome prediction process by integrating adaptive weighted features and machine learning algorithms for basketball game score prediction. The feature engineering method is used to construct designed features based on game-lag information and adaptive weighting of variables in the proposed prediction process. These designed features are then applied to the five machine learning methods, including classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), stochastic gradient boosting (SGB), eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and extreme learning machine (ELM) for constructing effective prediction models. The empirical results from National Basketball Association (NBA) data revealed that the proposed sports outcome prediction process could generate a promising prediction result compared to the competing models without adaptive weighting features. Our results also showed that the machine learning models with four game-lags information and adaptive weighting of power could generate better prediction performance.

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