scholarly journals Homicides during the Barranquilla Carnival, Colombia: A 10 Year Time-Series Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 35
Author(s):  
Jhon Albert Guarin-Ardila ◽  
Rossycela Montero-Ariza ◽  
Claudia Iveth Astudillo-García ◽  
Julián Alfredo Fernández-Niño
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Young Adults ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
The Third ◽  
Fixed Effects Models ◽  
The City ◽  
Positive Effect

Homicides are currently the third leading cause of death among young adults, and an increase has been reported during holidays. The aim of the present study was to explore whether an association exists between Carnival in Barranquilla, Colombia, and an increase in homicides in the city. We used mortality records to identify the number of daily homicides of men and women throughout the week of Carnival, and we compared those with records from all of standard days between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2015. Conditional fixed-effects models were used, stratified by time and adjusted by weather variables. The average number of homicides on Carnival days was found to be higher than on a standard day, with an OR of 2.34 (CI 95%: 1.19–4.58) for the occurrence of at least one male homicide per day during Carnival, and 1.22 (CI 95%: 1.22–7.36) for female homicides, adjusted by weather variables. The occurrence of homicides during Carnival was observed and was similar to findings for other holidays. Given that violence is a multifactorial phenomenon, the identification of the factors involved serves as a basis for evaluating whether current strategies have a positive effect on controlling it.

scholarly journals Time series analysis of dengue cases reporting to a tertiary care hospital

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 2200
Author(s):  
Ravindra S. Kembhavi ◽  
Saurabha U. S.
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Tertiary Care Hospital ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Major Public Health Problem ◽  
Care Hospital ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The City

Background: Dengue fever is a major public health problem, the concern is high as the disease is closely related to climate change.Methods: This was a retrospective study, conducted for 1 year in a tertiary care hospital in the city of Mumbai. Data of Dengue cases and climate for the city of Mumbai between 2011 and 2015 were obtained. Data was analysed using SPSS- time series analysis and forecasting model.Results: 33% cases belonged to the 21-30 years, proportion of men affected were more than women. A seasonal distribution of cases was observed. A strong correlation was noted between the total number of cases reported and (a) mean monthly rainfall and (b) number of days of rainfall. ARIMA model was used for forecasting.Conclusions: The trend analysis along with forecasting model helps in being prepared for the year ahead. 

Time series analysis of PM2.5 and PM10−2.5 mass concentration in the city of Sao Carlos, Brazil

2010 ◽  
Vol 41 (1/2) ◽  
pp. 90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Andrea Pozza ◽  
Ed Pinheiro Lima ◽  
Tatiane Tagino Comin ◽  
Marcelino Luiz Gimenes ◽  
Jose Renato Coury
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Mass Concentration ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The City

scholarly journals Gentrification, mobility patterns and health in Lisbon: a time series’ analysis from 2008 to 2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
R Sá ◽  
E Soares dos Santos ◽  
T Gabriel ◽  
A Moreira ◽  
P Giraldo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Geographical Area ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Ecological Data ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Causal Pathways ◽  
The City

Abstract Background Mobility patterns have a great impact on health. The use of cars is known to be related with increasing air pollution, noise and accidents, and less active transportation, leading to cardiovascular, oncological or respiratory diseases, among others. Gentrification is a process through which the rising value of a geographical area displaces low-income inhabitants, mostly due to rising rents, mortgages and property taxes. This change has the potential for relocating long-time residents and businesses. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of gentrification in the car influx in the city of Lisbon. Methods A time series' analysis was performed using public ecological data, from 2008 to 2018, of habitation costs per square meter (as a proxy of gentrification) and the number of cars that entered Lisbon through accessing highways. The model was adjusted for confounding factors such as Lisbon's gross income and fuel prices. Results We verified the effect of seasonality in the car influx, with peaks before and after summer - july and october - and a downward trend until 2013 that then inflected and started an upward trend from 2014 to 2018. Habitation costs were positively correlated with car influx into the city (R2=0.773; p < 0.001). In the model, 1€/m2 of increment in housing prices corresponded to 200 more cars that entered the city. Conclusions In Lisbon, gentrification was associated with the increasing number of cars entering the city. These findings may have implications in future policies that regulate housing and mobility. Further research is needed to fully understand the causal pathways of this phenomenon. Key messages Mobility patterns have a great influence on health, and gentrification may influence them. The increase of 1€ per square meter in housing prices lead to an increase of the influx of cars of 200.

scholarly journals Effect of the Colombian Emergency Department Triage Policy on the timeliness of ED care and the mortality in patients with cerebrovascular attack: A controlled interrupted time series analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Eduardo Vallejo ◽  
Daniel Felipe Patiño-Lugo ◽  
Daniel Camilo Aguirre-Acevedo ◽  
Juan Pablo Acosta
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Reperfusion Therapy ◽  
Intervention Period ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Emergency Department Triage ◽  
The City

Abstract Background: Ischemic Cerebrovascular Accident (CVA) is the second cause of death and one of the leading causes of disability in the world. In Colombia, there is a prevalence of 0.16% and a mortality rate of 16.82 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. This study assessed the Colombian Ministry of Health’s Emergency Department Triage Policy (TP) on the timeliness of hospital care, the mortality, and change in reperfusion therapy of patients with the first episode of an CVA in the Emergency Department (ED) of a hospital in the city of Medellín.Methods: A controlled interrupted time series analysis between January 2011 and November 2017 was performed in one emergency department using segmented regression analysis. The emergency department of other hospital was used as a control. Data were aggregated by month for both ED, including 60 pre-intervention and 23 intervention points.Results: No decrease in the timeliness of care in the ED was found in patients with a stroke after implementing the Colombian Ministry of Health’s TP (12.55 minutes, IC -17.07, 42.17; p: 0.4). The TP intervention produced a level change in the timeliness of care in Triage I and II subgroups, of 28.34 minutes (IC 95% 16.9, 39.79; p valor 0.00), there was no change in the trend. The classification of Triage I and II was more frequent in the post-intervention period. There was evidence of the increase in reperfusion therapy with tissue plasminogen activator (rTPA) in 4% (95% CI – 0.08, - 0.01; p value 0.01). Mortality increased 4% in the post-intervention period without being statistically significant (0.04, IC 95% - 0.08 – 0; p valor 0.06). There were no significant changes in the same outcomes in the control group.Conclusions: The implementation of the triage policy allowed improving the timeliness of ED care only in patients with ischemic CVA classified as Triage I and II, in an Emergency Department in the city of Medellín, Colombia.

scholarly journals PENGARUH REALISASI PENERIMAAN PAJAK DAERAH DAN RETRIBUSI DAERAH TERHADAP REALISASI PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH (PAD) KOTA CILEGON TAHUN 2014-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-41
Author(s):  
Sev Rahmiyanti ◽  
Didit Prasetyo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
User Fees ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Local Revenue ◽  
Local Taxes ◽  
Original Region ◽  
The City ◽  
Positive Effect

This research was conducted to determine the effect of local taxes and levies on local revenue. This study uses data on the realization of the Regional Expenditure Budget and is devoted to the data on the realization of the revenue of the original region of Cilegon which was taken over a period of five years, starting from 2014 until 2018. The data was obtained from the Badan Pengelolaan Keuangan dan Aset Kota Cilegon with the type of data used is time series data.The results of this study indicate the effect of local tax revenue and regional retribution in the city of Cilegon have a positive effect simultaneously on the increase of local revenue with a magnitude of influence of 94.8%, while partially local tax and regional levies have different influences in influencing local revenue. It can be concluded that regional taxes have a significant effect on local own-source revenues while regional user fees do not have a significant effect on regional own-source revenues.

scholarly journals Relationship between respiratory diseases and environmental conditions: a time-series analysis in Eastern Amazon

2021 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 398-412
Author(s):  
Mauricio Do Nascimento Moura ◽  
Maria Isabel Vitorino ◽  
Glauber Guimarães Cirino da Silva ◽  
Valdir Soares de Andrade Filho
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
The City

This study examines the relationship between the time-series analysis of climate, deforestation, wildfire, Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in the Eastern Amazon. Through a descriptive study with an ecological approach of an 18-year time-series analysis, we made a statistical analysis of two pre-established periods, namely, the rainy season and the dry season. On a decadal scale, analyzing the signals of climate indices [i.e., the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM)], the city of Marabá presents correlations between hospital admissions, wildfire, and AOD. This is not observed with the same accuracy in Santarém. On a seasonal scale, our analysis demonstrated how both cities in this research presented an increase in the number of hospital admissions during the dry season: Marabá, 3%; Santarém, 5%. The same season also presented a higher number of fire outbreaks, AOD, and higher temperatures. The AOD monthly analysis showed that the atmosphere of Marabá may be under the influence of other types of aerosols, such as those from mining activities. There is a time lag of approximately 2 months in the records of wildfire in the city. Such lag is not found in Santarém. The linear regression analysis shows that there is a correlation above 64% (Marabá) and 50% (Santarém), which is statistically significant because it proves that the number of hospital admissions for respiratory diseases is dependable on the AOD value. From the cities in the study, Marabá presents the highest incidence of wildfire, with an average of 188.5— the average in Santarém is 68.7—, and therefore the highest AOD value, with an average of 0.66 (Santarém, 0.47), both during the dry season. It is evident that the climate component has a relevant contribution to the increase in the number of hospital admissions, especially during the rainy season, where there are few or no records of wildfires.

scholarly journals IMPLEMENTASI METODE WEIGHTED PRODUCT DALAM SISTEM PENDUKUNG KEPUTUSAN PEMILIHAN LAYANAN UANG ELEKTRONIK TERBAIK

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 1131
Author(s):  
Melati Wasti ◽  
Sari Hartini ◽  
Rinawati Rinawati
Keyword(s):  
Electronic Money ◽  
The Third ◽  
A Value ◽  
Product Method ◽  
The City ◽  
Positive Effect

This research was conducted to assist users in choosing the best electronic money. Where electronic money is easier to use than conventional money. By using five criteria, namely: convenience, security, promotion, speed, and convenience. This research was conducted on electronic money users in the city of Bekasi with a population of 3,013,851 people using a sample of 44 respondents. The method used is the weighted product method. The results of this study indicate that the first alternative electronic money recommendation obtained by OVO has a value of 0.391 with very positive criteria, namely convenience value (K1) = 206, security (K2) = 204, promotion (K3) = 169, speed (K4 ) = 203, convenience (K5) = 183. The second alternative electronic money recommendation obtained by Go-Pay has a value of 0.359 with criteria that have a very positive effect, namely convenience value (K1) = 182, security (K2) = 168, promotion (K3 ) = 166, speed (K4) = 183, comfort (K5) = 180. The third alternative recommendation for electronic money obtained by Dana has a value of 0.227 with criteria that have a very positive effect, namely convenience value (K1) = 115, security (K2) = 126, promotion (K3) = 117 speed (K4) = 124, comfort (K5) = 111.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Pemberitaan Media Massa dan Sikap Komunitas LGBT terhadap Self Esteem LGBT di Kota Medan

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 154-160
Author(s):  
Kamariah Kamariah ◽  
Abdul Munir ◽  
Cut Meutia
Keyword(s):  
Mass Media ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Self Esteem ◽  
The Self ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Community Attitudes ◽  
The Third ◽  
Lgbt Community ◽  
The City ◽  
Positive Effect

This purpose is to find out whether the mass media coverage and the attitudes of the LGBT community affect LGBT self esteem in Medan. The research method is quantitative descriptive correlative type with correlative study patterns by placing research variables in two groups, namely independent variables and dependent variables. The study population was the LGBT community in the city of Medan. Sampling uses Proportional Random Sampling technique with a selected sample of 67 people, the data collection method uses the scale of mass media coverage, the scale of community attitudes and the scale of self esteem of the LGBT community. Analysis of research data shows that (1) there is a very significant positive effect between the scale of mass media coverage and the self esteem of the LGBT community, which is indicated by the coefficient rx1y = 0.380 and p 0.01; (2) there is a significant positive effect between community attitudes and influencing community self esteem as indicated by the coefficient rx2y = 0.678 and p 0.01; for the two hypotheses above, the product moment analysis technique is used; (3) there is a significant influence between the mass media coverage and community attitudes with the self-esteem of the LGBT community in the city of Medan as indicated by the coefficient F = 27,341 and the correlation of the three variables namely R = 0.679 while the magnitude of the third contributors R2 = 0.461 with p 0.01 with the meaning of the magnitude of influence is 46.1%. The third hypothesis in this research is to determine the power of mass media coverage and community attitudes towards the emergence of community self esteem, the analysis used is Multiple Regression Analysis.

Triumphant Lives

2020 ◽  
pp. 508-527
Author(s):  
Eric R. Varner
Keyword(s):  
Visual Arts ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Imperial Rome ◽  
The Third ◽  
Gold Silver ◽  
Visual Landscape ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The City

This chapter explores the portraits, statues, and triumphal arches in Imperial Rome. Rome’s growing military and political ascendance throughout the Mediterranean during the third and second centuries bc coincided with significant artistic developments in the realm of portraiture and historical documentation in the visual arts. The visual landscape of the city was densely packed with statues in gold, silver, bronze, and marble, vast numbers of which were portraits honouring the men and women of Rome for their lifetime achievements. In addition, the statuary population included images which surmounted the numerous triumphal arches positioned throughout the city. Portraits formed the artistic analogue of written biographies, encomia, and panegyrics, as did the historical and allegorical narrative reliefs that often adorned triumphal arches.

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