scholarly journals COVID-19 Global Risk: Expectation vs. Reality

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (15) ◽  
pp. 5592
Author(s):  
Mudassar Arsalan ◽  
Omar Mubin ◽  
Fady Alnajjar ◽  
Belal Alsinglawi
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Developmental Indicators ◽  
Risk Predictors

Background and Objective: COVID-19 has engulfed the entire world, with many countries struggling to contain the pandemic. In order to understand how each country is impacted by the virus compared with what would have been expected prior to the pandemic and the mortality risk on a global scale, a multi-factor weighted spatial analysis is presented. Method: A number of key developmental indicators across three main categories of demographics, economy, and health infrastructure were used, supplemented with a range of dynamic indicators associated with COVID-19 as independent variables. Using normalised COVID-19 mortality on 13 May 2020 as a dependent variable, a linear regression (N = 153 countries) was performed to assess the predictive power of the various indicators. Results: The results of the assessment show that when in combination, dynamic and static indicators have higher predictive power to explain risk variation in COVID-19 mortality compared with static indicators alone. Furthermore, as of 13 May 2020 most countries were at a similar or lower risk level than what would have been expected pre-COVID, with only 44/153 countries experiencing a more than 20% increase in mortality risk. The ratio of elderly emerges as a strong predictor but it would be worthwhile to consider it in light of the family makeup of individual countries. Conclusion: In conclusion, future avenues of data acquisition related to COVID-19 are suggested. The paper concludes by discussing the ability of various factors to explain COVID-19 mortality risk. The ratio of elderly in combination with the dynamic variables associated with COVID-19 emerge as more significant risk predictors in comparison to socio-economic and demographic indicators.

scholarly journals Incidence and risk predictors of acute kidney injury among HIV-positive patients presenting with sepsis in a low resource setting

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Davis Kimweri ◽  
Julian Ategeka ◽  
Faustine Ceasor ◽  
Winnie Muyindike ◽  
Edwin Nuwagira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acute Kidney Injury ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Significant Risk Factor ◽  
Hiv Positive ◽  
Volume Depletion ◽  
Adjusted Risk ◽  
Adjusted Analysis ◽  
Resource Setting ◽  
Risk Predictors

Abstract Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequently encountered clinical condition in critically ill patients and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. In our resource-limited setting (RLS), the most common cause of AKI is sepsis and volume depletion. Sepsis alone, accounts for up to 62 % of the AKI cases in HIV-positive patients. Objective The major goal of this study was to determine the incidence and risk predictors of AKI among HIV-infected patients admitted with sepsis at a tertiary hospital in Uganda. Methods In a prospective cohort study, we enrolled adult patients presenting with sepsis at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital (MRRH) in southwestern Uganda between March and July 2020. Sepsis was determined using the qSOFA criteria. Patients presenting with CKD or AKI were excluded. Sociodemographic characteristics, physical examination findings, and baseline laboratory values were recorded in a data collection tool. The serum creatinine and urea were done at admission (0-hour) and at the 48-hour mark to determine the presence of AKI. We performed crude and multivariable binomial regression to establish the factors that predicted developing AKI in the first 48 h of admission. Variables with a p < 0.01 in the adjusted analysis were considered as significant predictors of AKI. Results Out of 384 patients screened, 73 (19 %) met our inclusion criteria. Their median age was 38 (IQR 29–46) years and 44 (60.3 %) were male. The median CD4 T-cell count was 67 (IQR 35–200) cells, median MUAC was 23 (IQR 21–27) cm and 54 (74.0 %) participants were on a regimen containing Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate (TDF). The incidence of AKI in 48 h was 19.2 % and in the adjusted analysis, thrombocytopenia (Platelet count < 150) (adjusted risk ratio 8.21: 95 % CI: 2.0–33.8, p = 0.004) was an independent predictor of AKI. Conclusions There is a high incidence of AKI among HIV-positive patients admitted with sepsis in Uganda. Thrombocytopenia at admission may be a significant risk factor for developing AKI. The association of thrombocytopenia in sepsis and AKI needs to be investigated.

Analysis of Cerebral Vascular Lesion Pools in Ischemic Stroke Based on the Analysis and the Prognostic Assessment of Risk Factors in Patients with Primary and Recurrent Ischemic Stroke

2016 ◽  
pp. 65-68
Author(s):  
Oksana Mikitey
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Recurrent Stroke ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Vascular Lesion ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Vascular Lesions ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

Stroke is an important medical and social problem, and stroke risk assessment tools have difficulty on the interaction of risk factors and the effects of certain risk factors with analysis by age, gender, race, because this information fully available to global risk assessment tools. In addition, these tools tend to be focused and usually do not include the entire range of possible factors contributing. The aim of the study was to conduct a comparison of brain vascular lesions pool with ischemic stroke (II) based predictive analysis and assessment of the main risk factors in patients with primary and recurrent ischemic stroke. Prognostically significant risk factors for recurrent ischemic stroke is not effective antihypertensive therapy, multiple stenoses any one pool vascular brain, duration of hypertension (AH) over 5 years and regular smoking patients (p<0.001). In the initial localization in the second vertebrobasilar recurrent stroke was significantly (p<0.05) more developed in the same pool in women than in men; and the localization of the primary carotid AI in the pool, re-developed stroke often unreliable in the same pool in women than in men.

scholarly journals Evaluation of coral reef carbonate production models at a global scale

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1339-1356 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. S. Jones ◽  
A. Ridgwell ◽  
E. J. Hendy
Keyword(s):  
Coral Reef ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Coral Cover ◽  
Light Availability ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Carbonate Production ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations

Abstract. Calcification by coral reef communities is estimated to account for half of all carbonate produced in shallow water environments and more than 25% of the total carbonate buried in marine sediments globally. Production of calcium carbonate by coral reefs is therefore an important component of the global carbon cycle; it is also threatened by future global warming and other global change pressures. Numerical models of reefal carbonate production are needed for understanding how carbonate deposition responds to environmental conditions including atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the past and into the future. However, before any projections can be made, the basic test is to establish model skill in recreating present-day calcification rates. Here we evaluate four published model descriptions of reef carbonate production in terms of their predictive power, at both local and global scales. We also compile available global data on reef calcification to produce an independent observation-based data set for the model evaluation of carbonate budget outputs. The four calcification models are based on functions sensitive to combinations of light availability, aragonite saturation (Ωa) and temperature and were implemented within a specifically developed global framework, the Global Reef Accretion Model (GRAM). No model was able to reproduce independent rate estimates of whole-reef calcification, and the output from the temperature-only based approach was the only model to significantly correlate with coral-calcification rate observations. The absence of any predictive power for whole reef systems, even when consistent at the scale of individual corals, points to the overriding importance of coral cover estimates in the calculations. Our work highlights the need for an ecosystem modelling approach, accounting for population dynamics in terms of mortality and recruitment and hence calcifier abundance, in estimating global reef carbonate budgets. In addition, validation of reef carbonate budgets is severely hampered by limited and inconsistent methodology in reef-scale observations.

scholarly journals Risks assessment in terms of OHS for critical power infrastructures in context of industrial safety

2021 ◽  
Vol 343 ◽  
pp. 10020
Author(s):  
Dragos Pasculescu ◽  
Nicolae Daniel Fita ◽  
Emilia Grigorie ◽  
Florin Gabriel Popescu ◽  
Alina Daniela Handra
Keyword(s):  
Occupational Health ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Occupational Health And Safety ◽  
Industrial Safety ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Safety Level ◽  
Systemic Analysis ◽  
Power Substation

The aim of occupational health and safety in the context of industrial safety is to provide the national industry with a proper operation state, an ergonomic, optimal and healthy work environment, safe workers and workplaces, safety of industrial processes, to limit and mitigate any unforeseen situation generated by events which might negatively affect the occupational health and safety level. The current paper approaches the risk assessment in terms of occupational health and safety within a cross-border 400/220 kV power substation interconnected to the European power grid, identified and assigned as European critical infrastructure. The assessment is carried out using the INCDPM Bucharest method, in order to establish the risk/safety levels in a quantitative manner, based on a systemic analysis and on the assessment of risks of accidents and professional diseases. The application of the method ends in a workplace assessment sheet which comprises the global risk level of the power substation and which sets the grounds for the plan for preventing accidents and professional diseases within the analysed power substation.

scholarly journals The Working Memory as Predictor of Performance in Arithmetic of Brazilian Students

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernanda David Vieira ◽  
Denise Oliveira Ribeiro ◽  
Heitor Blesa Farias ◽  
Patricia Martins Freitas
Keyword(s):  
Working Memory ◽  
School Performance ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Performance Test ◽  
Fluid Intelligence ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Verbal Working Memory ◽  
School Learning ◽  
Brazilian Students ◽  
Positive Correlations

Abstract Working memory (WM) is a predictor of school learning. This study aimed to investigate the predictive power of verbal and non-verbal working memory (WM) on students’ performance in arithmetic. 126 children between 6 and 11 years old participated in the research. The instruments were: School Performance Test, Raven’s Colored Progressive Matrices, Corsi Block-tapping Test, and Digits Subtest. The results showed strong and positive correlations of school performance with fluid intelligence r = 0.64, with verbal WM and non-verbal WM, both with r = 0.51 (p < 0.001). After multiple linear regression, it was found that the performance in visuospatial WM was a strong predictor for arithmetic, an effect not found for reading. The regression showed that WM explains 38% of the variance for arithmetic. It is concluded that WM has an expressive contribution to school performance, being more specific the contributions of visuospatial WM for arithmetic.

scholarly journals Edoxaban versus warfarin on stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation: a territory-wide cohort study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dicken Kong ◽  
Jiandong Zhou ◽  
Sharen Lee ◽  
Keith Sai Kit Leung ◽  
Tong Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Propensity Score ◽  
Ischaemic Stroke ◽  
Propensity Score Matching ◽  
Lower Risk ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Risk Predictors

AbstractBackgroundIn this territory-wide, observational, propensity score-matched cohort study, we evaluate the development of transient ischaemic attack and ischaemic stroke (TIA/Ischaemic stroke) in patients with AF treated with edoxaban or warfarin.MethodsThis was an observational, territory-wide cohort study of patients between January 1st, 2016 and December 31st, 2019, in Hong Kong. The inclusion were patients with i) atrial fibrillation, and ii) edoxaban or warfarin prescription. 1:2 propensity score matching was performed between edoxaban and warfarin users. Univariate Cox regression identifies significant risk predictors of the primary, secondary and safety outcomes. Hazard ratios (HRs) with corresponding 95% confidence interval [CI] and p values were reported.ResultsThis cohort included 3464 patients (54.18% males, median baseline age: 72 years old, IQR: 63-80, max: 100 years old), 664 (19.17%) with edoxaban use and 2800 (80.83%) with warfarin use. After a median follow-up of 606 days (IQR: 306-1044, max: 1520 days), 91(incidence rate: 2.62%) developed TIA/ischaemic stroke: 1.51% (10/664) in the edoxaban group and 2.89% (81/2800) in the warfarin group. Edoxaban was associated with a lower risk of TIA or ischemic stroke when compared to warfarin.ConclusionsEdoxaban use was associated with a lower risk of TIA or ischemic stroke after propensity score matching for demographics, comorbidities and medication use.

Risk factors for multiple suicide attempts among Roma in Hungary

2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mónika Ditta Tóth ◽  
Szilvia Ádám ◽  
Tamás Zonda ◽  
Emma Birkás ◽  
György Purebl
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Suicide Attempts ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Sample Population ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Psychological Variables ◽  
Background Factors ◽  
Roma Population ◽  
Suicide Rates

In recent years, suicide rates in Hungary have been among the highest in the European Union. Attempted suicide rates in the Roma population are 2–3 times higher than in the non-Roma population. Since individuals making multiple attempts have a higher pro-bability of eventual death by suicide, and there are limited data on suicidal behaviour of the Roma population, the aim of this study was to explore the sociodemographic and psychological background factors of multiple suicide attempts in the Hungarian Roma population. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 150 individuals admitted to hospital toxicology departments, who made suicide attempts by deliberate self-poisoning, 65 of whom were multiple attempters. Detailed information regarding the current attempt and previous suicidal acts was recorded. Patients also completed the Shortened Beck Depression, the Beck Hopelessness Questionnaire, and the Social Support Questionnaire. Independent samples t-tests were used to evaluate differences in psychological variables between the Roma ( N = 90) and non-Roma ( N = 60) groups. Stepwise linear regression and odds ratios analyses were performed to identify potential background factors of multiple suicide attempts. There was a significantly higher level of previous suicidal events among the Roma in the sample population (3.53 vs. 0.84, p < .001). Roma ethnicity was found to be a strong predictor of multiple suicide attempts. Current major depression, hopelessness, and diagnosed mood disorder were identified as significant risk factors of repeated attempts. Smoking (OR = 5.4), family history of suicide (OR = 4.9), and long-term unemployment (OR = 4.6) were additional risk factors among Roma patients. A thorough understanding of the ethnicity-specific risk factors for multiple suicide attempts could facilitate the development of effective intervention and postvention programmes.

Groundwater phosphorus concentrations: global trends and links with agricultural and oil and gas activities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Warrack ◽  
Mary Kang ◽  
Christian von Sperber
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Surface Water Quality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Anthropogenic Sources ◽  
High Concentration ◽  
Oil And Gas Development ◽  
Global Trends

&lt;p&gt;Although observations show that anthropogenic phosphorus (P) can reach groundwater supplies, there has been no comprehensive evaluation of P in groundwater at the global scale. Additionally, there have been minimal studies on distributed sources, such as agriculture, and the effects of oil and gas activities on P contamination in groundwater are poorly understood. We compile and analyze 181,653 groundwater P concentrations from 13 government agencies and 8 individual research studies in 11 different countries in order to determine the extent of P pollution at the global scale. We find that every country with data has groundwater P concentrations that pose a significant risk of eutrophication to surface waters. In Canada and the United States, we study the relationship between land use, focusing on crop/pastureland, and increased P concentrations in groundwater. In Ontario and Alberta, two Canadian provinces with different histories of oil and gas development, we find areas with a high concentration of P groundwater pollution to coincide with regions of intense oil and gas activity. Understanding the effects of anthropogenic sources on phosphorus contamination of groundwater and identifying all possible pathways through which contamination can occur will assist regulators in planning and implementing effective strategies to manage groundwater and surface water quality and sustain ecosystem health.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Predicting Diabetic Neuropathy Risk Level Using Artificial Neural Network and Clinical Parameters of Subjects With Diabetes

2020 ◽  
pp. 193229682096558
Author(s):  
Venketesh N. Dubey ◽  
Jugal M. Dave ◽  
John Beavis ◽  
David V. Coppini
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Diabetic Neuropathy ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Classical Method ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Patient Data ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Clinical Parameters ◽  
Perception Threshold

Background: A risk assessment tool has been developed for automated estimation of level of neuropathy based on the clinical characteristics of patients. The smart tool is based on risk factors for diabetic neuropathy, which utilizes vibration perception threshold (VPT) and a set of clinical variables as potential predictors. Methods: Significant risk factors included age, height, weight, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, glycated hemoglobin, total cholesterol, and duration of diabetes. The continuous-scale VPT was recorded using a neurothesiometer and classified into three categories based on the clinical thresholds in volts (V): low risk (0-20.99 V), medium risk (21-30.99 V), and high risk (≥31 V). Results: The initial study had shown that by just using patient data ( n = 5088) an accuracy of 54% was achievable. Having established the effectiveness of the “classical” method, a special Neural Network based on a Proportional Odds Model was developed, which provided the highest level of prediction accuracy (>70%) using the simulated patient data ( n = 4158). Conclusion: In the absence of any assessment devices or trained personnel, it is possible to establish with reasonable accuracy a diagnosis of diabetic neuropathy by means of the clinical parameters of the patient alone.

Association Between Body Mass Index and Perioperative Mortality After Repair of Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (7) ◽  
pp. 573-578
Author(s):  
Tiffany W. Liang ◽  
S. Keisin Wang ◽  
Paul D. Dimusto ◽  
Christopher M. McAninch ◽  
Charles W. Acher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Body Mass Index ◽  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms ◽  
Aortic Aneurysms ◽  
Perioperative Mortality ◽  
Abdominal Aortic ◽  
Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

Objective: The attempt to repair a ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm carries a significant risk of perioperative mortality. The relationship between body mass index (BMI) and outcomes after repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) has not been well defined. We report the association of BMI with outcomes after ruptured AAA repair. Methods: Patients undergoing ruptured AAA repairs between 2008 and 2017 at 2 tertiary academic centers were included in this retrospective study. Demographics (including BMI), type of repair, length of stay, and admission mortality risk scores were gathered and analyzed using bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) was reported with 95% CIs and P values from the multivariate analysis. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and c-statistics were used to assess the predictive power of models including physiologic score with or without BMI. Results: A total of 202 patients underwent repair of ruptured AAA. In bivariate relationship, increased BMI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality. With multivariate analysis, adjusting for demographics, type of procedure, and physiologic score, for each kg/m2 increase in BMI, an 8% increase in the likelihood of perioperative mortality (AOR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.01-1.17; P = .04) was observed. Conclusion: When adjusted for admission risk score, type of procedure, and demographics, obesity was associated with increased 30-day mortality. With BMI as an additional data point, the c-statistics and AIC comparisons indicated that we would have a greater ability to preoperatively estimate mortality after ruptured AAA repair. Consideration could be made to include BMI in future mortality risk scoring systems for ruptured AAA.

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