scholarly journals Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order in Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 3273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamarul Imran Musa ◽  
Wan Nor Arifin ◽  
Mohd Hafiz Mohd ◽  
Mohammad Subhi Jamiluddin ◽  
Noor Atinah Ahmad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Movement Control ◽  
Systems Science ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Government ◽  
Control Order ◽  
The Impact

To curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) in Malaysia, the government imposed a nationwide movement control order (MCO) from 18 March 2020 to 3 May 2020. It was enforced in four phases (i.e., MCO 1, MCO 2, MCO 3 and MCO 4). In this paper, we propose an initiative to assess the impact of MCO by using time-varying reproduction number (Rt). We used data from the Johns Hopkins University Centre for Systems Science and Engineering Coronavirus repository. Day 1 was taken from the first assumed local transmission of COVID-19. We estimated Rt by using the EpiEstim package and plotted the epidemic curve and Rt. Then, we extracted the mean Rt at day 1, day 5 and day 10 for all MCO phases and compared the differences. The Rt values peaked around day 43, which was shortly before the start of MCO 1. The means for Rt at day 1, day 5, and day 10 for all MCOs ranged between 0.665 and 1.147. The average Rt gradually decreased in MCO 1 and MCO 2. Although spikes in the number of confirmed cases were observed when restrictions were gradually relaxed in the later MCO phases, the situation remained under control with Rt values being stabilised to below unity level (Rt value less than one).

scholarly journals Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction (Rt) Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order (MCO) in Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Musa Kamarul Imran ◽  
Wan Nor Ariffin ◽  
Mohd Mohd Hafiz ◽  
Subhi Jamiluddin ◽  
Noor Atinah Ahmad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Systems Science ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Science And Engineering ◽  
University Center ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Control Order ◽  
Local Transmission

To quantify the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) for Malaysia using the COVID-19 incidence data., we used data the from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CCSE) Coronavirus repository. Day 1 was taken from the first assumed local transmission of COVID-19. Data was split into four intervals: a) Interval 1: from Day 1 to Day 10 MCO 1, b) Interval 2: from Day 1 to Day 10 MCO 2, c) Interval 3: from Day 1 to Day 10 MCO 3 and d) Interval 4: from Day 1 to Day 10 MCO 4. We estimated the Rt using the EpiEstim package. The means for Rt at Day 1, Day 5 and Day 10 for all MCOs ranged between 0.665 to 1.147. The average Rt gradually decreased in MCO 1 and MCO 2. However, Rt increased in MCO 3 before stabilized around 0.8 in MCO 4. MCO 1 and MCO 2 which were stricter coincide with the gradual reduction of Rt. However, the more relaxed MCO 3 and MCO 4 correspond to a slight increase in the Rt before it stabilized.

scholarly journals Modelling the Effectiveness of Epidemic Control Measures in Preventing the Transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (15) ◽  
pp. 5509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Balvinder Singh Gill ◽  
Vivek Jason Jayaraj ◽  
Sarbhan Singh ◽  
Sumarni Mohd Ghazali ◽  
Yoon Ling Cheong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Control Order

Malaysia is currently facing an outbreak of COVID-19. We aim to present the first study in Malaysia to report the reproduction numbers and develop a mathematical model forecasting COVID-19 transmission by including isolation, quarantine, and movement control measures. We utilized a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) model by incorporating isolation, quarantine, and movement control order (MCO) taken in Malaysia. The simulations were fitted into the Malaysian COVID-19 active case numbers, allowing approximation of parameters consisting of probability of transmission per contact (β), average number of contacts per day per case (ζ), and proportion of close-contact traced per day (q). The effective reproduction number (Rt) was also determined through this model. Our model calibration estimated that (β), (ζ), and (q) were 0.052, 25 persons, and 0.23, respectively. The (Rt) was estimated to be 1.68. MCO measures reduce the peak number of active COVID-19 cases by 99.1% and reduce (ζ) from 25 (pre-MCO) to 7 (during MCO). The flattening of the epidemic curve was also observed with the implementation of these control measures. We conclude that isolation, quarantine, and MCO measures are essential to break the transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia.

scholarly journals Millions of Bangladeshi Children Missed Their Scheduled Vaccination Amidst COVID-19 Pandemic

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sayed Manzoor Ahmed Hanifi ◽  
Nujhat Jahan ◽  
Nazia Sultana ◽  
Sharif-Al Hasan ◽  
Ashish Paul ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Movement Control ◽  
Routine Vaccination ◽  
Vaccine Preventable Diseases ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
The Government ◽  
Two Phases ◽  
Control Order ◽  
Expanded Program On Immunization ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Depth Interviews

The Government of Bangladesh imposed a movement control order as a mass quarantine strategy to control the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Adherence to the home quarantine may put children at risk by missing routine vaccination. In this study, we investigated the impact of COVID-19 on child routine immunization in a rural area of Bangladesh and consider the broader implications. Data for this study comes from the Chakaria Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) of icddr,b with a population of 90,000 people residing in 16,000 households in 49 villages in a rural, coastal area of Southeast Bangladesh. We used an explanatory sequential mixed methods design which involved two phases between March 1, 2020, and May 31, 2020: first, we observed 258 outreach sessions of 86 EPI centers. We calculated the number of Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) outreach sessions suspended and the number of children who missed their routine vaccination due to the COVID-19. We extrapolated the number of Bangladeshi children who missed their routine vaccination using Chakaria HDSS observations. Secondly, we conducted in-depth interviews to explain the quantitative results. The EPI outreach session (EOS) declined to 74.42% (95% CI 63.97–83.22), 10.45% (95% CI 5.00–18.94), and 3.45% (95% CI 1.00–9.75) from 2019 levels in March, April, and May 2020, respectively. By extrapolation, in Bangladesh, between March and May 2020, 3.2 million children missed their scheduled vaccination compared to 2019. Results from in-depth interviews showed that the unwillingness of villagers to hold EOS and the absenteeism of the vaccinators due to social distancing recommendations and lack of personal safety measures were the main reasons for the discontinuation of the EOS. Resuming EPI outreach sessions and introducing a special catch-up program is essential to prevent future outbreaks and deaths due to vaccine-preventable diseases in Bangladesh and the countries where children missed their routine vaccination due to COVID-19. This health system failure should be considered a factor in all future pandemic preparedness plans.

The Impact of Movement Control Order on Rural Livelihood in Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Mohd Azren Hassan ◽  
Nur Atiqah Anuar Zabidi ◽  
Hidayati Ramli ◽  
Adam Aruldewan S. Muthuveeran ◽  
Yusfida Ayu Abdullah
Keyword(s):  
Rural Area ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Government Intervention ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Sustainable Livelihood ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
The Government ◽  
Control Order ◽  
The Impact

In 2020, the spread of Coronavirus (COVID-19) had a global impact on normal daily life. The Government of Malaysia officially declared the Movement Control Order (MCO), an official national lockdown, to reduce the virus’s spread. In the face of the unprecedented global health pandemic, Malaysia had struggled to protect its citizens’ welfare and livelihoods, particularly in the hardest-hit rural areas. Therefore, this study uses the sustainable livelihood approach (SLA) focusing on the aspect of financial assets and government intervention to enhance understanding on the vulnerability in rural area’s livelihood. Pasir Puteh, Kelantan was identified as the rural area for this study. The analysis was performed on a questionnaire survey based on convenience sampling of 62 respondents. Cross table analysis and a correlation test were used to examine the livelihood of the rural area concerning the financial assets, government intervention and vulnerability. The findings indicated that the MCO had a substantial impact on the rural area regarding the vulnerability toward the financial assets, such as employment status, job loss, increasing living costs, and an insufficient response to rural economic challenges. At the same time, there is no substantial government intervention in the welfare of rural areas. According to the results, the study concluded that the government should set up training courses to assist in the long-term recovery of rural areas due to the enforced lockdown, which has adversely affected rural livelihoods.

scholarly journals COVID 19: GOVERNMENT RESPONSES TO OIL PRICE

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (7) ◽  
pp. 01-19
Author(s):  
Chia-Guan Keh ◽  
Yan-Teng Tan ◽  
Siu-Eng Tang
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Closing Price ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
The Government ◽  
Control Order ◽  
The Impact

The outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) has aroused global interest and it had a significant impact on the global economy. The majority of the countries have implemented lockdown regulations and social distancing policies to prevent the spread of COVID-19, which has an unprecedented impact on the oil and gas market. Hence, this scenario motivated us to study how government responses aimed at banning the spread of COVID-19 affect oil prices? To answer this question, this study examines the Movement Control Order imposed by the government to responses the oil prices in Malaysia. The study emphasizes the period from the start of January 2020 to July 2020 when the coronavirus began spreading into Malaysia. We empirically investigate the impact of government responses on both BRENT and WTI’s oil prices. The findings report that the additional one-day stay at home requirements cause a reduction of 29% and 37% in the closing price for BRENT and WTI’s oil prices respectively. Workplace closing results in a 5.7% and 14.3% reduction in the closing price for BRENT and WTI correspondingly. In contrast, international travel controls, restrictions on gatherings, and debt or contract relief for households have a positive relationship with both oil prices of BRENT and WTI. The results of this study might assist the government and investors to understand the impact of Malaysia's government responses to COVID-19 on oil prices.

scholarly journals The Effect of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) Towards Consumer Social Well-Being in Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahrul Akmal Damin ◽  
◽  
Khairunesa Isa ◽  
Nor Shela Saleh ◽  
Muhaymin Hakim Abdullah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Household Income ◽  
Good Condition ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Quality Of Life Scale ◽  
Life Scale ◽  
The Government ◽  
Control Order ◽  
The Impact

Responding to the unprecedented threat of Covid-19 to the life of all humanity, it were directly affect human mentally and physicaly. This outbreak consequences lead to human well-being being affected. To break this infection chain, the government has been announced to implement the Movement Control Order (MCO). This study try to identify the consumer social well-being during MCO and the impact of social well-being based on household income. A total of 340 consumers around Malaysia were randomly selected to participate in this survey. This survey used Flanagan Quality of Life Scale (1970) indicator to measure the consumer’s social well-being. The findings showed that the implementation of MCO made the aspect of consumers’ social well-being still in good condition because most respondents rated five (5) out of fifteen (15) items as mostly satisfied (scale 5) to their quality of time during the implementation of MCO. Meanwhile, household income did not affect the level of their social well-being because most of the respondents concerned more on human relationship rather than financial. Overall it can be said that human touch and the element of interaction between human have a significant impact to human social well-being.

scholarly journals A Data Driven Change-point Epidemic Model for Assessing the Impact of Large Gathering and Subsequent Movement Control Order on COVID-19 Spread in Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarat C. Dass ◽  
Wai M. Kwok ◽  
Gavin J. Gibson ◽  
Balvinder S. Gill ◽  
Bala M. Sundram ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Change Point ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Quantitative Understanding ◽  
Control Order ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractThe second wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia is largely attributed to a mass gathering held in Sri Petaling between February 27, 2020 and March 1, 2020, which contributed to an exponential rise of COVID-19 cases in the country. Starting March 18, 2020, the Malaysian government introduced four consecutive phases of a Movement Control Order (MCO) to stem the spread of COVID-19. The MCO was implemented through various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The reported number of cases reached its peak by the first week of April and then started to reduce, hence proving the effectiveness of the MCO. To gain a quantitative understanding of the effect of MCO on the dynamics of COVID-19, this paper develops a class of mathematical models to capture the disease spread before and after MCO implementation in Malaysia. A heterogeneous variant of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model is developed with additional compartments for asymptomatic transmission. Further, a change-point is incorporated to model the before and after disease dynamics, and is inferred based on data. Related statistical analyses for inference are developed in a Bayesian framework and are able to provide quantitative assessments of (1) the impact of the Sri Petaling gathering, and (2) the extent of decreasing transmission during the MCO period. The analysis here also quantitatively demonstrates how quickly transmission rates fall under effective NPI implemention within a short time period.

scholarly journals Epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Nepal and the importance of social distancing to contain the virus

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-25
Author(s):  
Amod K. Pokhrel ◽  
Yadav P. Joshi ◽  
Sopnil Bhattarai
Keyword(s):  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Epidemiological Trend ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
The Government ◽  
Testing Case ◽  
The Impact

There is limited information on the epidemiology and the effects of mitigation measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Nepal. Using publicly available databases, we analyzed the epidemiological trend, the people's movement trends at different intervals across different categories of places and evaluated implications of social mobility on COVID-19. We also estimated the epidemic peak. As of June 9, 2020, Provinces 2 and 5 have most of the cases. People between 15 and 54 years are vulnerable to becoming infected, and more males than females are affected. The cases are growing exponentially. The growth rate of 0.13 and >1 reproduction numbers (R0) over time (median: 1.48; minimum: 0.58, and maximum: 3.71) confirms this trend. The case doubling time is five days. Google's community mobility data suggest that people strictly followed social distancing measures for one month after the lockdown. By around the 4th week of April, the individual's movement started rising, and social contacts increased. The number of cases peaked on May 12, with 83 confirmed cases in one day. The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model suggests that the epidemic will peak approximately on day 41 (July 21, 2020), and start to plateau after day 80. To contain the spread of the virus, people should maintain social distancing. The Government needs to continue active surveillance, more PCR-based testing, case detection, contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine. The Government should also provide financial support and safety-nets to the citizen to limit the impact of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Situational Analysis for COVID-19: Estimating Transmission Dynamics in Malaysia using an SIR-Type Model with Neural Network Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (8) ◽  
pp. 2469-2478
Author(s):  
Mohammad Subhi Jamiluddin ◽  
Mohd Hafiz Mohd ◽  
Noor Atinah Ahmad ◽  
Kamarul Imran Musa
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Situational Analysis ◽  
Neural Network Approach ◽  
Public Places ◽  
Major Health ◽  
The Government ◽  
Control Order ◽  
Network Approaches

COVID-19 is a major health threat across the globe, which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, and it is highly contagious with significant morbidity and mortality. In this paper, we examine the feasibility and implications of several phases of Movement Control Order (MCO) and some non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) strategies implemented by Malaysian government in the year 2020 using a mathematical model with SIR-neural network approaches. It is observed that this model is able to mimic the trend of infection trajectories of COVID-19 pandemic and, Malaysia had succeeded to flatten the infection curve at the end of the Conditional MCO (CMCO) period. However, the signs of ‘flattening’ with R0 of less than one had been taken as a signal to ease up on some restrictions enforced before. Though the government has made compulsory the use of face masks in public places to control the spread of COVID-19, we observe a contrasting finding from our model with regards to the impacts of wearing mask policies in Malaysia on R0 and the infection curve. Additionally, other events such as the Sabah State Election at the end of third quarter of 2020 has also imposed a dramatic COVID-19 burden on the society and the healthcare systems.

scholarly journals Dynamics of the mean transmitral pressure gradient and its impact on clinical outcomes after MitraClip

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Can Öztürk ◽  
Kim Sprenger ◽  
Noriaki Tabata ◽  
Atsushi Sugiura ◽  
Marcel Weber ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Clinical Outcomes ◽  
Functional Outcomes ◽  
Independent Predictor ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Severe Mitral Regurgitation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Group 2 ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Group 1

Background: The impact of the increased mitral gradient (MG) on outcomes is ambiguous. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate a) periinterventional dynamics of MG, b) the impact of intraprocedural MG on clinical outcomes, and c) predictors for unfavourable MG values after MitraClip. Methods: We prospectively included patients undergoing MitraClip. All patients underwent echocardiography at baseline, intraprocedurally, at discharge, and after six months. 12-month survival was reassessed. Results: 175 patients (age 81.2±8.2 years, 61.2% male) with severe mitral regurgitation (MR) were included. We divided our cohort into two groups with a threshold of intraprocedural MG of 4.5 mmHg, which was determined by the multivariate analysis for the prediction of 12-month mortality (<4.5 mmHg: Group 1, 4.5 mmHg: Group 2). Intraprocedural MG 4.5 mmHg was found to be the strongest independent predictor for 12-month mortality (HR: 2.33, p=0.03, OR: 1.70, p=0.05) and ≥3.9 mmHg was associated with adverse functional outcomes (OR: 1.96, p=0.04). The baseline leaflet-to-annulus index (>1.1) was found to be the strongest independent predictor (OR: 9.74, p=0.001) for unfavourable intraprocedural MG, followed by the number of implanted clips (p=0.01), MG at baseline (p=0.02) and central clip implantation (p=0.05). Conclusion: MG shows time-varying and condition-depended dynamics periinterventionally. Patients with persistent increased (≥4.5 mmHg) MG at discharge showed the worst functional outcomes and the highest 12-month mortality, followed by patients with an intra-hospital decrease in MG to values below 4.5 mmHg. Pre-interventional echocardiographic and procedural parameters can predict unfavourable postprocedural MG.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document