Metabolic Obesity Phenotypes and Risk of Cellulitis: A Cohort Study

No cohort studies have evaluated the effect of obesity on the risk of cellulitis according to metabolic health status. We investigated an association of BMI and metabolic health status with the development of cellulitis. We conducted a cohort study of 171,322 Korean adults who underwent a health checkup examination and were followed from 2011 to 2016 for cellulitis and hospital admission related to cellulitis, which were ascertained through the linkage to the Health Insurance and Review Agency database. Being metabolically healthy was defined as not having any metabolic syndrome component and having a homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance <2.5. During 638,240.4 person-years of follow-up, 14,672 cases of incident cellulitis were identified with 225 cases of cellulitis-related admission. After adjustment for possible confounders, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) for incident cellulitis comparing BMIs 23–24.9, 25–29.9, and ≥30 with a BMI of 18.5–22.9 kg/m2 as the reference were 1.07 (1.02–1.11), 1.09 (1.04-1.13), and 1.19 (1.08-1.31), respectively, whereas the corresponding multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) for cellulitis-related admission were 1.55 (1.05–2.3), 2.47 (1.73–3.53), and 4.8 (2.86–8.05), respectively. These associations were consistently observed in both metabolically healthy and unhealthy individuals with no significant interaction. In a large cohort of apparently healthy adults, increased BMI was associated with an increased risk of cellulitis and hospitalization for cellulitis in both metabolically healthy and unhealthy individuals. Obesity appears to be an independent risk factor for cellulitis regardless of metabolic phenotype.

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Headache as a risk factor for dementia: A prospective population-based study

Cephalalgia ◽

10.1177/0333102413513181 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 34 (5) ◽

pp. 327-335 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Knut Hagen ◽

Eystein Stordal ◽

Mattias Linde ◽

Timothy J Steiner ◽

John-Anker Zwart ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factor ◽

Cohort Study ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Subsequent Development ◽

Population Based ◽

Health Study ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Hazard Ratios ◽

Increased Risk

Background Headache has not been established as a risk factor for dementia. The aim of this study was to determine whether any headache was associated with subsequent development of vascular dementia (VaD), Alzheimer’s disease (AD) or other types of dementia. Methods This prospective population-based cohort study used baseline data from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT 2) performed during 1995–1997 and, from the same Norwegian county, a register of cases diagnosed with dementia during 1997–2010. Participants aged ≥20 years who responded to headache questions in HUNT 2 were categorized (headache free; with any headache; with migraine; with nonmigrainous headache). Hazard ratios (HRs) for later inclusion in the dementia register were estimated using Cox regression analysis. Results Of 51,383 participants providing headache data in HUNT 2, 378 appeared in the dementia register during the follow-up period. Compared to those who were headache free, participants with any headache had increased risk of VaD ( n = 63) (multivariate-adjusted HR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.4–3.8, p = 0.002) and of mixed dementia (VaD and AD ( n = 52)) (adjusted HR = 2.0, 95% CI 1.1–3.5, p = 0.018). There was no association between any headache and later development of AD ( n = 180). Conclusion In this prospective population-based cohort study, any headache was a risk factor for development of VaD.

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Does metabolic health in overweight and obesity persist? – Individual variation and cardiovascular mortality over two decades

Acta Endocrinologica ◽

10.1530/eje-16-0095 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 175 (2) ◽

pp. 133-143 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Akaal Kaur ◽

Desmond G Johnston ◽

Ian F Godsland

Keyword(s):

Insulin Resistance ◽

Cardiovascular Risk ◽

Health Status ◽

Cardiovascular Mortality ◽

Normal Weight ◽

Metabolic Health ◽

Overweight And Obesity ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Metabolically Healthy

Objective Overweight and obese individuals may be metabolically healthy, but attention needs to be given to long-term persistence of this trait and any associated variation in cardiovascular risk. Design Cross-sectional and longitudinal variation in metabolic health and associated cardiovascular mortality were analysed in 1099 white European-origin normal-weight and overweight or obese males followed for 20years. Methods Definitions of metabolic health were based on LDL and HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, blood pressure, fasting glucose and cardiovascular risk. Insulin resistance (e.g. HOMA-IR) and sub-clinical inflammation (ESR and white blood cell count) were explored. Cardiovascular mortality risks and persistence of metabolic health status were evaluated. Results There were 87 cardiovascular deaths. Insulin resistance was increased in metabolically healthy overweight or obese participants (median HOMA-IR 2.63, 95% CI: 1.79–3.65, P<0.001) relative to normal-weight participants (median HOMA-IR 1.67, 95% CI: 1.08–2.67, P<0.001) as was sub-clinical inflammation but metabolically healthy overweight or obese individuals were not at increased risk of cardiovascular mortality compared with the metabolically healthy normal-weight individuals (hazard ratio 1.13, 95% CI: 0.34–3.72, P=0.8). The proportions of initially metabolically healthy overweight or obese who remained metabolically healthy for visits 2, 3 and 4 were 54, 48 and 39% respectively, and for initially normal-weight individuals, 68, 51 and 41%. A lower proportion of metabolically healthy overweight or obese individuals remained metabolically healthy at visit 2 compared with normal-weight individuals (P=0.007), but proportions converged thereafter. Conclusions Despite being insulin resistant and having greater sub-clinical inflammation, and despite instability in metabolic health status, metabolically healthy overweight or obese individuals were at no greater risk of cardiovascular mortality than their normal-weight equivalents.

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Differential Effect of Metabolic Health and Obesity on Incident Heart Failure: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

Frontiers in Endocrinology ◽

10.3389/fendo.2021.625083 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

Author(s):

Hwi Seung Kim ◽

Jiwoo Lee ◽

Yun Kyung Cho ◽

Joong-Yeol Park ◽

Woo Je Lee ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Heart Failure ◽

National Health ◽

Population Based ◽

Metabolic Health ◽

Metabolically Healthy Obese ◽

Obesity Status ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Metabolically Healthy ◽

Incident Heart Failure

BackgroundMetabolically healthy obese (MHO) individuals and their association with cardiometabolic diseases have remained controversial. We aimed to explore the risk of incident heart failure (HF) based on the baseline metabolic health and obesity status as well as their transition over 2 years.MethodsThe Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Health Screening Cohort data of 514,886 participants were analyzed. Obesity was defined as BMI ≥25 kg/m2 according to the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The metabolic health and obesity status were evaluated at baseline and after two years. Study participants were followed to either the date of newly diagnosed HF or the last follow-up visit, whichever occurred first.ResultsThe MHO group comprised 9.1% of the entire population and presented a better baseline metabolic profile than the metabolically unhealthy non-obese (MUNO) and metabolicavlly unhealthy obese (MUO) groups. During the median 71.3 months of follow-up, HF developed in 5,406 (1.5%) participants. The adjusted hazard ratios [HRs (95% CI)] of HF at baseline compared with the metabolically healthy non-obese (MHNO) group were 1.29 [1.20–1.39], 1.37 [1.22–1.53], and 1.63 [1.50–1.76] for MUNO, MHO, and MUO groups, respectively. With the stable MHNO group as reference, transition into metabolically unhealthy status (MUNO and MUO) increased the risk of HF, regardless of the baseline status. Subjects who were obese at both baseline and follow-up showed an increased risk of HF, regardless of their metabolic health status.ConclusionsMetabolic health and obesity status and their transition can predict the risk of incident HF. Losing metabolic health in baseline non-obese and obese individuals and remaining obese in baseline obese individuals showed a significantly increased risk of incident HF. Maintaining good metabolic health and a lean body may prevent the development of HF.

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Risk of Arterial Stiffness According to Metabolically Healthy Obese Phenotype: A Combined Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Study in Kailuan Cohort

10.21203/rs.3.rs-97966/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Anxin Wang ◽

Yu Wang ◽

Yingting Zuo ◽

Xue Tian ◽

Shuohua Chen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Longitudinal Study ◽

Health Status ◽

Arterial Stiffness ◽

Metabolic Health ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Metabolically Healthy Obese ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Healthy Obese ◽

Metabolically Healthy ◽

Healthy Participants

Abstract BackgroundTo investigate the risk of incident arterial stiffness according to metabolically healthy obese (MHO) phenotype in Chinese population.Materials and methodsThe Kailuan study is an ongoing prospective cohort study, 37,180 participants with at least one-time measurement of branchial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) were included in the cross-sectional analysis, and 16,236 participants with repeated measurement of baPWV during the follow-ups were included in the longitudinal study from March 1, 2010, to January 31, 2020. Cross-classification of body mass index (BMI) categories and metabolic health status created six groups. Linear and logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association between BMI-metabolic status phenotypes and baPWV in mono-factor and multi-factor models. ResultsThe results of cross-sectional and longitudinal investigation were basically the same, as the abnormality of baPWV increased with BMI categories in metabolically healthy participants, while the increasing tendency disappeared in metabolically unhealthy participants. A 1.6-fold, 2.8-fold increased risk for the new occurrence of arterial stiffness were documented in MHO and metabolically unhealthy obese participants compared to metabolically healthy normal weight controls in the fully adjusted model. Further stratified analysis shown that metabolic health status was an interaction factor between BMI and arterial stiffness in either study population (P<0.0001 for cross-sectional study and P=0.0003 for longitudinal study).ConclusionsMetabolic health status and BMI categories contribute to the progression of arterial stiffness, while BMI is positively associated with arterial stiffness only in metabolically healthy participants. Moreover, MHO is an intermediate stage between metabolically healthy and unhealthy status.Trial registration: ChiCTR-TNRC-11001489. Registered 24 August 2011 - Retrospectively registered, http://www.chictr.org.cn/showprojen.aspx?proj=8050

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Abstract 13300: The Risk of Incident Hypertension According to the Metabolic Health and Obesity: Definition of Metabolic Health Does Not Matter

Circulation ◽

10.1161/circ.132.suppl_3.13300 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 132 (suppl_3) ◽

Author(s):

Yu Mi Kang ◽

Chang Hee Jung ◽

Jung Eun Jang ◽

JenieYoonoo Hwang ◽

Eun Hee Kim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Metabolic Health ◽

Health State ◽

Model Assessment ◽

Incident Hypertension ◽

Metabolically Healthy Obese ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Study Population ◽

Metabolically Healthy ◽

Definition Of ◽

Design And Methods

Background: Obesity is considered to be an important risk factor for hypertension. The metabolically healthy obese (MHO) phenotype refers to obese individuals with a favorable metabolic profile. Its prognostic value remains controversial and may partly depend on differences in defining methods. We examined the risk of MHO phenotype with incident hypertension in a Korean population using four representative criteria to define metabolic health status. Design and methods: The study population comprised of 31,033 Koreans without hypertension. Participants were stratified by body mass index (BMI) (cut-off value, 25.0 kg/m2) and metabolic health state, according to four defining methods; Adult Treatment Panel (ATP)-III criteria, Wildman criteria, Karelis criteria, and Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA) criteria. Results: Over the median follow-up period of 35.0 months (range, 4.5-81.4 months), 4,589 of the 31,033 individuals (14.8%) developed incident hypertension. Compared with the metabolically healthy nonobese (MHNO) group, the MHO group showed increased risk of incident hypertension with a multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-1.54), 1.43 (95% CI 1.31-1.57), 1.41 (95% CI 1.27-1.56), and 1.33 (95% CI 1.23-1.45), when defined by ATP-III criteria, Wildman criteria, Karelis criteria, and HOMA criteria, respectively. Metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO) individuals were at the highest risk of incident hypertension. Conclusions: MHO subjects showed a substantially higher risk of incident hypertension regardless of the definition for metabolic health. Thus, it is important to consider both metabolic health and obesity when evaluating risk of hypertension.

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Hysterectomies are associated with an increased risk of osteoporosis and bone fracture: A population-based cohort study

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0243037 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 15 (12) ◽

pp. e0243037

Author(s):

Ying-Ting Yeh ◽

Pei-Chen Li ◽

Kun-Chi Wu ◽

Yu-Cih Yang ◽

Weishan Chen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cohort Study ◽

Vertebral Fracture ◽

Bone Fracture ◽

Comparison Group ◽

Bone Fractures ◽

Estrogen Therapy ◽

Population Based ◽

Hazard Ratios ◽

Increased Risk

Aim This study investigated the risk of osteoporosis or bone fractures (vertebrae, hip and others) in hysterectomized women in Taiwan. Materials and methods This is a retrospective population-based cohort study from 2000 to 2013. Women aged ≥30 years who underwent hysterectomy between 2000 and 2012 were included in this study. The comparison group was randomly selected from the database with a 1:4 matching with age and index year. Incidence rate and hazard ratios of osteoporosis and bone fracture between hysterectomized women and the comparison group were calculated. Cox proportional hazard regressions were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results We identified 9,189 hysterectomized women and 33,942 age-matched women without a hysterectomy. All women were followed for a median time of about 7 years. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of subsequent osteoporosis or bone fracture was higher in the hysterectomy women (2.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.09–2.44) than in the comparison group. In the subgroup analysis, oophorectomy and estrogen therapy increase the risk of osteoporosis or fracture in both groups. Regarding the fracture site, the aHR of vertebral fracture (4.92, 95% CI = 3.78–6.40) was higher in the hysterectomized women than in the comparison group. As follow-up time increasing, the aHR of vertebral fracture in hysterectomized women were 4.33 (95% CI = 2.99–6.28), 3.89 (95% CI = 2.60–5.82) and 5.42 (95% CI = 2.66–11.01) for <5, 5–9 and ≥9 years of follow-up, respectively. Conclusions In conclusion, we found that hysterectomized women might be associated with increased risks of developing osteoporosis or bone fracture.

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Risk of incident ischemic stroke according to the metabolic health and obesity states in the Vascular-Metabolic CUN cohort

International Journal of Stroke ◽

10.1177/1747493016672083 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 187-191 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Laura Sánchez-Iñigo ◽

David Navarro-González ◽

Alejandro Fernández-Montero ◽

Juan Pastrana-Delgado ◽

JA Martínez

Keyword(s):

Ischemic Stroke ◽

Hazard Analysis ◽

Normal Weight ◽

Metabolic Health ◽

Stroke Incidence ◽

Metabolically Healthy Obese ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Healthy Obese ◽

Metabolically Healthy

Background Whether obesity is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease in the absence of metabolic comorbidities remains under debate. Indeed, some obese individuals may be at low risk of metabolic-related complications, while normal-weight individuals may not be “healthy.” Aims To assess the incidence of ischemic stroke according to the metabolic health and obesity states of 5171 participants from the Vascular-Metabolic CUN cohort. Methods A Cox proportional-hazard analysis was conducted to estimate the hazard ratio and their 95% confidence interval of stroke according to the metabolic health and obesity states based on TyG index and Adult Treatment Panel-III criteria, during 9.1 years of follow-up. Results After 50,056.2 person-years of follow-up, 162 subjects developed an ischemic stroke (incidence rate 3.23 per 1000 person-years). Metabolically healthy obese subjects did not show greater risk of stroke, while metabolically unhealthy participants, obese and non-obese, had an increased risk of stroke, compared with healthy non-obese. The hazard ratios for the multivariable adjusted model were 1.55 (95% CI: 1.36–1.77) and 1.86 (95% CI: 1.57–2.21), respectively. Conclusions Metabolically unhealthy individuals exhibited a greater risk of ischemic stroke than metabolically healthy obese individuals.

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SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and myocarditis or myopericarditis: population based cohort study

BMJ ◽

10.1136/bmj-2021-068665 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. e068665

Author(s):

Anders Husby ◽

Jørgen Vinsløv Hansen ◽

Emil Fosbøl ◽

Emilia Myrup Thiesson ◽

Morten Madsen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cohort Study ◽

Confidence Interval ◽

Population Based ◽

Hazard Ratio ◽

Adjusted Hazard Ratio ◽

Absolute Rate ◽

Hazard Ratios ◽

Increased Risk ◽

The Absolute

AbstractObjectiveTo investigate the association between SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and myocarditis or myopericarditis.DesignPopulation based cohort study.SettingDenmark.Participants4 931 775 individuals aged 12 years or older, followed from 1 October 2020 to 5 October 2021.Main outcome measuresThe primary outcome, myocarditis or myopericarditis, was defined as a combination of a hospital diagnosis of myocarditis or pericarditis, increased troponin levels, and a hospital stay lasting more than 24 hours. Follow-up time before vaccination was compared with follow-up time 0-28 days from the day of vaccination for both first and second doses, using Cox proportional hazards regression with age as an underlying timescale to estimate hazard ratios adjusted for sex, comorbidities, and other potential confounders.ResultsDuring follow-up, 269 participants developed myocarditis or myopericarditis, of whom 108 (40%) were 12-39 years old and 196 (73%) were male. Of 3 482 295 individuals vaccinated with BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), 48 developed myocarditis or myopericarditis within 28 days from the vaccination date compared with unvaccinated individuals (adjusted hazard ratio 1.34 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 2.00); absolute rate 1.4 per 100 000 vaccinated individuals within 28 days of vaccination (95% confidence interval 1.0 to 1.8)). Adjusted hazard ratios among female participants only and male participants only were 3.73 (1.82 to 7.65) and 0.82 (0.50 to 1.34), respectively, with corresponding absolute rates of 1.3 (0.8 to 1.9) and 1.5 (1.0 to 2.2) per 100 000 vaccinated individuals within 28 days of vaccination, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio among 12-39 year olds was 1.48 (0.74 to 2.98) and the absolute rate was 1.6 (1.0 to 2.6) per 100 000 vaccinated individuals within 28 days of vaccination. Among 498 814 individuals vaccinated with mRNA-1273 (Moderna), 21 developed myocarditis or myopericarditis within 28 days from vaccination date (adjusted hazard ratio 3.92 (2.30 to 6.68); absolute rate 4.2 per 100 000 vaccinated individuals within 28 days of vaccination (2.6 to 6.4)). Adjusted hazard ratios among women only and men only were 6.33 (2.11 to 18.96) and 3.22 (1.75 to 5.93), respectively, with corresponding absolute rates of 2.0 (0.7 to 4.8) and 6.3 (3.6 to 10.2) per 100 000 vaccinated individuals within 28 days of vaccination, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio among 12-39 year olds was 5.24 (2.47 to 11.12) and the absolute rate was 5.7 (3.3 to 9.3) per 100 000 vaccinated individuals within 28 days of vaccination.ConclusionsVaccination with mRNA-1273 was associated with a significantly increased risk of myocarditis or myopericarditis in the Danish population, primarily driven by an increased risk among individuals aged 12-39 years, while BNT162b2 vaccination was only associated with a significantly increased risk among women. However, the absolute rate of myocarditis or myopericarditis after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination was low, even in younger age groups. The benefits of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination should be taken into account when interpreting these findings. Larger multinational studies are needed to further investigate the risks of myocarditis or myopericarditis after vaccination within smaller subgroups.

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Dose Dependency of Iatrogenic Glucocorticoid Excess and Adrenal Insufficiency and Mortality: A Cohort Study in England

The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism ◽

10.1210/jc.2019-00153 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 104 (9) ◽

pp. 3757-3767 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Teumzghi F Mebrahtu ◽

Ann W Morgan ◽

Adam Keeley ◽

Paul D Baxter ◽

Paul M Stewart ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cohort Study ◽

Adverse Events ◽

Adrenal Insufficiency ◽

Cushing Syndrome ◽

Inflammatory Diseases ◽

Absolute Risk ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Hazard Ratios ◽

Increased Risk

Abstract Context Adrenal insufficiency and Cushing syndrome are known adverse events of glucocorticoids. However, no population estimates of dose-related risks are available. Objective To investigate dose-related risks of adrenal dysfunction and death in adults with six chronic inflammatory diseases treated with oral glucocorticoids. Design and setting Retrospective, record-linkage, open-cohort study spanning primary and hospital care in England. Patients A total of 70,638 oral glucocorticoid users and 41,166 nonusers aged ≥18 years registered in 389 practices in 1998 to 2017. Main outcome measures Incidence rates and hazard ratios (HRs) of diagnosed adrenal dysfunction and death. Results During a median follow-up of 5.5 years, 183 patients had glucocorticoid-induced adrenal insufficiency and 248 had glucocorticoid-induced Cushing syndrome. A total of 22,317 (31.6%) and 7544 (18.3%) deaths occurred among glucocorticoid users and nonusers, respectively. The incidence of all outcomes increased with higher current daily and cumulative doses. For adrenal insufficiency, the increases in HRs were 1.07 (95% CI: 1.04 to 1.09) for every increase of 5 mg per day and 2.25 (95% CI: 2.15 to 2.35) per 1000 mg of cumulative prednisolone-equivalent dose over the past year. The respective increases in HRs for Cushing syndrome were 1.09 (95% CI: 1.08 to 1.11) and 2.31 (95% CI: 2.23 to 2.40) and for mortality 1.26 (95% CI: 2.24 to 1.28) and 2.05 (95% CI: 2.04 to 2.06). Conclusion We report a high glucocorticoid dose-dependent increased risk of adrenal adverse events and death. The low observed absolute risk of adrenal insufficiency highlights a potential lack of awareness and a need for increased physician and patient education about the risks of adrenal dysfunction induced by glucocorticoids.

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Arthritis development in patients with arthralgia is strongly associated with anti-citrullinated protein antibody status: a prospective cohort study

Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases ◽

10.1136/ard.2008.105759 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 69 (3) ◽

pp. 490-494 ◽

Cited By ~ 151

Author(s):

W H Bos ◽

G J Wolbink ◽

M Boers ◽

G J Tijhuis ◽

N de Vries ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Rheumatoid Arthritis ◽

Cohort Study ◽

Confidence Interval ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Shared Epitope ◽

Hazard Ratios ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Clinical Arthritis ◽

Citrullinated Protein

BackgroundAnti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA) are associated with increased risk for rheumatoid arthritis.ObjectiveTo investigate the effect of the presence and levels of ACPA on arthritis development in patients with arthralgia.MethodsPatients with arthralgia positive for ACPA or IgM rheumatoid factor (IgM-RF) were tested for the shared epitope (SE) and were prospectively followed up for at least 12 months. Absence of clinical arthritis at inclusion and arthritis development during follow-up were independently confirmed by two investigators. Cox regression hazard analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for arthritis development.Results147 patients with arthralgia were included (50 ACPA positive, 52 IgM-RF positive and 45 positive for both antibodies). After a median follow-up of 28 months (interquartile range (IQR) 19–39), 29 patients developed arthritis in a median of 4 (IQR 3–6) joints and 26 (90%) of these were ACPA positive. The presence of ACPA (HR = 6.0; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.8 to 19.8; p = 0.004), but not of IgM-RF (HR = 1.4, 95% CI 0.6 to 3.1) nor the SE (HR = 1.5, 95% CI 0.7 to 3.0), was associated with arthritis development. Within the group of ACPA-positive patients, the risk for arthritis was enhanced by the presence of IgM-RF (HR = 3.0; 95% CI 1.4 to 6.9; p = 0.01) and high ACPA levels (HR = 1.7; 95% CI 1.1 to 2.5; p = 0.008), but not the SE (HR = 1.0; 95% CI 0.5 to 2.1; p = 1.0).ConclusionIn patients with arthralgia the presence of ACPA (but not of IgM-RF or SE) predicts arthritis development. The risk in ACPA-positive patients may be further increased by the concomitant presence of IgM-RF or high levels of ACPA.

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