Modelling the Evolution of COVID-19 in High-Incidence European Countries and Regions: Estimated Number of Infections and Impact of Past and Future Intervention Measures

A previously developed mechanistic model of COVID-19 transmission has been adapted and applied here to study the evolution of the disease and the effect of intervention measures in some European countries and territories where the disease has had a major impact. A clear impact of the major intervention measures on the reproduction number (Rt) has been found in all studied countries and territories, as already suggested by the drop in the number of deaths over time. Interestingly, the impact of such major intervention measures seems to be the same in most of these countries. The model has also provided realistic estimates of the total number of infections, active cases and future outcomes. While the predictive capabilities of the model are much more uncertain before the peak of the outbreak, we could still reliably predict the evolution of the disease after a major intervention by assuming the subsequent reproduction number from the current study. A greater challenge is to foresee the long-term impact of softer intervention measures, but this model can estimate the outcome of different scenarios and help to plan changes for the implementation of control measures in a given country or region.

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Modelling the evolution of COVID-19 in high-incidence European countries and regions: estimated number of infections and impact of past and future intervention measures

10.1101/2020.05.09.20096735 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Juan Fernandez-Recio

Keyword(s):

Reproduction Number ◽

Mechanistic Model ◽

Control Measures ◽

European Countries ◽

Intervention Measures ◽

High Incidence ◽

Long Term Impact ◽

The Impact ◽

Over Time

A previously developed mechanistic model of COVID-19 transmission has been adapted and applied here to study the evolution of the disease and the effect of intervention measures in some European countries and territories where the disease had major impact. A clear impact of the major intervention measures on the reproduction number (Rt) has been found in all studied countries and territories, as already suggested by the drop in the number of deaths over time. Interestingly, the impact of such major intervention measures seems to be the same in most of these countries. The model has also provided realistic estimates of the total number of infections, active cases and future outcome. While the predictive capabilities of the model are much more uncertain before the peak of the outbreak, we could still reliably predict the evolution of the disease after a major intervention by assuming the afterwards reproduction number from current study. More challenging is to foresee the long-term impact of softer intervention measures, but this model can estimate the outcome of different scenarios and help planning changes in the implementation of control measures in a given country or region.

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Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-95699-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Swapnil Mishra ◽

James A. Scott ◽

Daniel J. Laydon ◽

Seth Flaxman ◽

Axel Gandy ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Reproduction Number ◽

Mechanistic Model ◽

Total Mortality ◽

Control Measures ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Time Varying ◽

Per Capita ◽

The Uk ◽

The Impact ◽

Counterfactual Approach

AbstractThe UK and Sweden have among the worst per-capita COVID-19 mortality in Europe. Sweden stands out for its greater reliance on voluntary, rather than mandatory, control measures. We explore how the timing and effectiveness of control measures in the UK, Sweden and Denmark shaped COVID-19 mortality in each country, using a counterfactual assessment: what would the impact have been, had each country adopted the others’ policies? Using a Bayesian semi-mechanistic model without prior assumptions on the mechanism or effectiveness of interventions, we estimate the time-varying reproduction number for the UK, Sweden and Denmark from daily mortality data. We use two approaches to evaluate counterfactuals which transpose the transmission profile from one country onto another, in each country’s first wave from 13th March (when stringent interventions began) until 1st July 2020. UK mortality would have approximately doubled had Swedish policy been adopted, while Swedish mortality would have more than halved had Sweden adopted UK or Danish strategies. Danish policies were most effective, although differences between the UK and Denmark were significant for one counterfactual approach only. Our analysis shows that small changes in the timing or effectiveness of interventions have disproportionately large effects on total mortality within a rapidly growing epidemic.

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COVID-19 prediction in South Africa: Understanding the unascertained cases -- the hidden part of the epidemiological iceberg

10.1101/2020.12.10.20247361 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Xuelin Gu ◽

Bhramar Mukherjee ◽

Sonali Das ◽

Jyotishka Datta

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Epidemiological Models ◽

Intervention Measures ◽

Long Term Forecasting ◽

The Impact ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions

Background: Understanding the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains a critical epidemiological problem in South Africa that reported the largest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths from the African continent. Methods: In this study, we applied two existing epidemiological models, an extension of the Susceptible-Infected-Removed model (eSIR) and SAPHIRE, to fit the daily ascertained infected (and removed) cases from March 15 to July 31 in South Africa. To combine the desirable features from the two models, we further extended the eSIR model to an eSEIRD model. Results: Using the eSEIRD model, the COVID-19 transmission dynamics in South Africa was characterized by the estimated basic reproduction number (R0) at 2.10 (95%CI: [2.09,2.10]). The decrease of effective reproduction number with time implied the effectiveness of interventions. The low estimated ascertained rate was found to be 2.17% (95%CI: [2.15%, 2.19%]) in the eSEIRD model. The overall infection fatality ratio (IFR) was estimated as 0.04% (95%CI: [0.02%, 0.06%]) while the reported case fatality ratio was 4.40% (95% CI: [<0.01%, 11.81%]). As of December 31, 2020, the cumulative number of ascertained cases and total infected would reach roughly 801 thousand and 36.9 million according to the long-term forecasting. Conclusions: The dynamics based on our models suggested a decline of COVID-19 infection and that the severity of the epidemic might be largely mitigated through strict interventions. Besides providing insights on the COVID-19 dynamics in South Africa, we develop powerful forecasting tools that allow incorporating ascertained rate and IFR estimation and inquiring into the effect of intervention measures on COVID-19 spread.

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Role of Mathematical Model in Curbing COVID-19 in Nigeria

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences ◽

10.5614/cbms.2020.3.2.5 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 135-147

Author(s):

Chinwendu Emilian Madubueze ◽

Nkiru Maria Akabuike ◽

Sambo Dachollom

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Basic Reproduction Number ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Viral Disease ◽

Control Measures ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Testing Rate ◽

Intervention Measures ◽

The Impact ◽

The Basic Reproduction Number

COVID-19 is a viral disease that is caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2) which has no approved vaccine. Based on the available non-pharmacological interventions like wearing of face masks, observing social distancing, and lockdown, this work assesses the impact of non-pharmaceutical control measures (social distancing and use of face-masks) and mass testing on the transmission of COVID-19 in Nigeria. A mathematical model for COVID-19 is formulated with intervention measures (observing social distancing and wearing of face masks) and mass testing. The basic reproduction number, R_0, is computed using next-generation method while the disease-free equilibrium is found to be locally and globally asymptotically stable when R_0< 1. The model is parameterized using Nigeria data on COVID-19 in Nigeria. The basic reproduction number is found to be less than unity (R_0 < 1) either when the compliance with intervention measures is moderate (50% <= alpha< 70%) and the testing rate per day is moderate (0,5 <=alpha_2 < 0,7) or when the compliance with intervention measures is strict (alpha>=70%) and the testing rate per day is poor (alpha_2 = 0,3). This implies that Nigeria will be able to halt the spread of COVID-19 under these two conditions. However, it will be easier to enforce strict compliance with intervention measures in the presence of poor testing rate due to the limited availability of testing facilities and manpower in Nigeria. Hence, this study advocates that Nigerian governments (Federal and States) should aim at achieving a testing rate of at least 0.3 per day while ensuring that all the citizens strictly comply with wearing face masks and observing social distancing in public.

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A Perspective On The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic in Basic Science Research and its Future implications

Coronaviruses ◽

10.2174/2666796701999201223161636 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 01 ◽

Author(s):

Yam Nath Paudel ◽

Efthalia Angelopoulou ◽

Bhupendra Raj Giri ◽

Christina Piperi ◽

Iekhsan Othman ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Basic Science ◽

Large Scale ◽

Preventive Measure ◽

Science Research ◽

Research Institutes ◽

Basic Science Research ◽

Long Term Consequences ◽

Long Term Impact ◽

The Impact

: COVID-19 has emerged as a devastating pandemic of the century that the current generations have ever experienced. The COVID-19 pandemic has infected more than 12 million people around the globe and 0.5 million people have succumbed to death. Due to the lack of effective vaccines against the COVID-19, several nations throughout the globe has imposed a lock-down as a preventive measure to lower the spread of COVID-19 infection. As a result of lock-down most of the universities and research institutes has witnessed a long pause in basic science research ever. Much has been talked about the long-term impact of COVID-19 in economy, tourism, public health, small and large-scale business of several kind. However, the long-term implication of these research lab shutdown and its impact in the basic science research has not been much focused. Herein, we provide a perspective that portrays a common problem of all the basic science researchers throughout the globe and its long-term consequences.

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The Long-Term Impact of Different Offline Population Inclusion Strategies in Probability-Based Online Panels: Evidence From the German Internet Panel and the GESIS Panel

Social Science Computer Review ◽

10.1177/0894439320984131 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 089443932098413

Author(s):

Carina Cornesse ◽

Ines Schaurer

Keyword(s):

Survey Data ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Alternative Mode ◽

Mail Surveys ◽

Internet Users ◽

Online Panels ◽

Long Term Impact ◽

The Impact ◽

Postal Mail

While online panels offer numerous advantages, they are often criticized for excluding the offline population. Therefore, some probability-based online panels have developed offline population inclusion strategies. Two dominant approaches prevail: providing internet equipment and offering an alternative survey participation mode. We investigate the impact of these approaches on two probability-based online panels in Germany: the German Internet Panel, which provides members of the offline population with internet equipment, and the GESIS Panel, which offers members of the offline population to participate via postal mail surveys. In addition, we explore the impact of offering an alternative mode only to non-internet users versus also offering the alternative mode to internet users who are unwilling to provide survey data online. Albeit lower recruitment and/or panel wave participation probabilities among offliners than onliners, we find that including the offline population has a positive long-term impact on sample accuracy in both panels. In the GESIS Panel, the positive impact is particularly strong when offering the alternative participation mode to non-internet users and internet users who are unwilling to provide survey data online.

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Understanding contributors to quality of care in long-term care and changes under COVID-19

Innovation in Aging ◽

10.1093/geroni/igaa057.3509 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽

pp. 960-960

Author(s):

Sara Luck ◽

Katie Aubrecht

Keyword(s):

Quality Of Care ◽

Long Term Care ◽

The United States ◽

Control Measures ◽

Qualitative Description ◽

Care Staff ◽

Term Care ◽

The Impact

Abstract Nursing home facilities are responsible for providing care for some of the most vulnerable groups in society, including the elderly and those with chronic medical conditions. In times of crisis, such as COVID-19 or other pandemics, the delivery of ‘regular’ care can be significantly impacted. In relation to COVID-19, there is an insufficient supply of personal protective equipment (PPE) to care for residents, as PPE not only protects care staff but also residents. Nursing homes across the United States and Canada have also taken protective measures to maximize the safety of residents by banning visitors, stopping all group activities, and increasing infection control measures. This presentation shares a research protocol and early findings from a study investigating the impact of COVID-19 on quality of care in residential long-term care (LTC) in the Canadian province of New Brunswick. This study used a qualitative description design to explore what contributes to quality of care for residents living in long-term care, and how this could change in times of crisis from the perspective of long-term care staff. Interviews were conducted with a broad range of staff at one LTC home. A semi-structured interview guide and approach to thematic analysis was framed by a social ecological perspective, making it possible to include the individual and proximal social influences as well as community, organizations, and policy influencers. Insights gained will improve the understanding of quality of care, as well as potential barriers and facilitators to care during times of crisis.

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THE LONG-TERM IMPACT OF SOCIAL MOVEMENTS AND REPRESSION ON DEMOCRATIC ATTITUDES

Journal of East Asian Studies ◽

10.1017/jea.2020.16 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (3) ◽

pp. 317-351

Author(s):

Scott Desposato ◽

Gang Wang

Keyword(s):

Social Movements ◽

High School Students ◽

Fuzzy Regression ◽

School Students ◽

Attitudinal Differences ◽

College Entry ◽

Democratic Attitudes ◽

Long Term Impact ◽

The Impact

AbstractDemocracy movements in authoritarian regimes usually fail and are repressed, but they may still affect attitudes and norms of participants and bystanders. We exploit several features of a student movement to test for enduring effects of social movements on democratic attitudes. College students were the core of the movement and had wide exposure to the ideas and activities of the movement, as well as the suppression of the movement. College-bound high school students had limited exposure to the movement and its activities. Time of college entry could in theory be manipulated and endogenous, so we also use birthdate as an exogenous instrument for enrollment year. Applying a fuzzy regression discontinuity, we test for the impact of exposure to the movement on long-term attitudes. We find significant attitudinal differences between those in college during the movement, and those who started college post-movement. These results are strongest for alumni of the four universities that were most connected to the movement.

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The Role of UBI in Mitigating the Effects of Psychosocial Stressors: A Review and Proposal

Psychological Reports ◽

10.1177/00332941211005115 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 003329412110051

Author(s):

Rashmi Gupta ◽

Jemima Jacob ◽

Gaurav Bansal

Keyword(s):

Role Stress ◽

Psychosocial Stressors ◽

Basic Income ◽

Economic Stability ◽

The Past ◽

Individual Outcomes ◽

Long Term Impact ◽

The Impact

Psychosocial stressors and social disadvantages contribute to inequalities in opportunities and outcomes. In the current paper, we use an epidemiological perspective and highlight the role stress plays on individuals by reviewing the outcomes of major stressors such as poverty and unemployment. We further analyzed the psychological and physical cost of these stressors and their long-term impact. We examined the role of universal basic income and closely looked at income experiments that were implemented in the past, in terms of their effectiveness in enhancing the community as well as individual outcomes and propose the UBI as a tool for alleviating the impact of these stressors. At a time when a major pandemic (e.g., COVID-19) threatens economic stability and health globally, we believe the UBI is relevant now, more than ever.

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The Long-Term Impact of an Education for Sustainability Course on Israeli Science and Technology Teachers’ Pro-Environment Awareness, Commitment and Behaviour

Australian Journal of Environmental Education ◽

10.1017/aee.2015.31 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 31 (2) ◽

pp. 264-279 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Anat Abramovich ◽

Yahavit Loria

Keyword(s):

High School Teachers ◽

Junior High School ◽

Science And Technology ◽

Education For Sustainability ◽

Environmental Behaviour ◽

Junior High School Teachers ◽

Technology Teachers ◽

Long Term Impact ◽

The Impact

AbstractThe impact of an Education for Sustainability (EfS) course for science and technology junior high school teachers on the intentional and actual environmental behaviour of participants was studied by researching the EfS implementation of 13 science and technology teachers within their family, community, and work environment. The research was qualitative in nature, where science and technology teachers’ insights on the EfS course were determined by means of an open-ended questionnaire and intensive interviews. Results indicated that the course clearly influenced the vast majority of the participants, who claimed that their environmental awareness had increased and they were capable of acting responsibly. All participants acted in favour of the environment among family, community, and at work. Yet, 2 years later, implementation seemed to be undermined by various internal and external barriers, such as the unavailability of convenient resources, or resistance on the part of family. The study suggests that course designers must include reference to potential difficulties and barriers in order to circumvent future obstacles. In addition, the implementation of post-course support would encourage overcoming the gap between willingness to act and actual practice.

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