scholarly journals Hedging Long-Dated Oil Futures and Options Using Short-Dated Securities—Revisiting Metallgesellschaft

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 379
Author(s):  
James S. Doran ◽  
Ehud I. Ronn
Keyword(s):  
Tracking Errors ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
Option Contracts ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Hedge Ratios ◽  
Increasing Risk ◽  
Futures And Options ◽  
Do So

Since the collapse of the Metallgesellschaft AG due to hedging losses in 1993, energy practitioners have been concerned with the ability to hedge long-dated linear and non-linear oil liabilities with short-dated futures and options. This paper identifies a model-free non-parametric approach to extrapolating futures prices and implied volatilities. When we expand the analysis to implementing hedge portfolios for long-dated futures or option contracts over the time period 2007–2017, we utilize the useful benchmark of hedge ratios arising from Schwartz and Smith. With respect to the empirical consequences of hedging long-dated futures and options with their short-dated counterparts, we find that the long-term tracking errors are, on average, quite close to zero, but there is increasing risk entailed in attempting to do so, as the hedge-tracking errors for both futures and option contracts increase with time-to-maturity.

Stability and Change in Emotional Intelligence: Exploring the Transition to Young Adulthood

2005 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 100-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D.A. Parker ◽  
Donald H. Saklofske ◽  
Laura M. Wood ◽  
Jennifer M. Eastabrook ◽  
Robyn N. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
High School ◽  
Emotional Intelligence ◽  
Postsecondary Education ◽  
Life Transition ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Major Life ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Transition From High School

Abstract. The concept of emotional intelligence (EI) has attracted growing interest from researchers working in various fields. The present study examined the long-term stability (32 months) of EI-related abilities over the course of a major life transition (the transition from high school to university). During the first week of full-time study, a large group of undergraduates completed the EQ-i:Short; 32 months later a random subset of these students (N = 238), who had started their postsecondary education within 24 months of graduating from high school, completed the measures for a second time. The study found EI scores to be relatively stable over the 32-month time period. EI scores were also found to be significantly higher at Time 2; the overall pattern of change in EI-levels was more than can be attributed to the increased age of the participants.

scholarly journals Sociolinguistic Markers of Friendship Among Persons With Dementia in Long-Term Care

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 575-575
Author(s):  
Pamela Saunders
Keyword(s):  
Social Interaction ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Ethnographic Study ◽  
Linguistic Features ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Socially Constructed ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Pronominal Reference ◽  
Field Notes

Abstract Sociolinguistics and discourse analysis provide tools through which to examine how friendship is socially constructed through language and communication. Research on social isolation and loneliness reveals the importance of social interaction on the psychological and physical health of older adults. Given that linguistic, communicative, and functional abilities decline as dementia progresses, it is challenging to identify markers of friendship. The Friendship Project is an ethnographic study of social interaction among persons with dementia living in a long-term care setting. The data are from transcripts and field-notes of social interactions among residents with a range of cognitive impairments over a six-month time period. Results reveal that persons with dementia employ specific linguistic features such as narrative, evaluation, evidentials, and pronominal reference to make meaning and create relationships over time. Practical implications will be discussed.

scholarly journals Long-Term and Short-Term Prognostic Value of Circulating Soluble Suppression of Tumorigenicity-2 Concentration in Chronic Heart Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Cardiology ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Guoqi Dong ◽  
Hao Chen ◽  
Hongru Zhang ◽  
Yihuang Gu
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Chronic Heart Failure ◽  
Prognostic Value ◽  
Web Of Science ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Prisma Statement ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Increasing Risk

<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> Soluble suppression of tumorigenicity-2 (sST2) has been considered as a prognostic factor of cardiovascular disease. However, the prognostic value of sST2 concentration in chronic heart failure remains to be summarized. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> We searched PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science for eligible studies up to January 1, 2020. Data extracted from articles and provided by authors were used in agreement with the PRISMA statement. The endpoints were all-cause mortality (ACM), cardiovascular mortality (CVM)/heart failure-related hospitalization (HFH), and all-cause mortality (ACM)/heart failure-related readmission (HFR). <b><i>Results:</i></b> A total of 11 studies with 5,121 participants were included in this analysis. Higher concentration of sST2 predicted the incidence of long-term ACM (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02–1.04), long-term ACM/HFR (HR: 1.42, CI: 1.27–1.59), and long-term CVM/HFH (HR: 2.25, CI: 1.82–2.79), regardless of short-term ACM/HFR (HR: 2.31, CI: 0.71–7.49). <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> Higher sST2 concentration at baseline is associated with increasing risk of long-term ACM, ACM/HFR, and CVM/HFH and can be a tool for the prognosis of chronic heart failure.

scholarly journals Computer-assisted sign language translation: a study of translators’ practice to specify CAT software

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Kaczmarek ◽  
Michael Filhol
Keyword(s):  
Sign Language ◽  
Language Translation ◽  
Computer Assisted ◽  
Translation Process ◽  
Sign Languages ◽  
Subjective Data ◽  
Do So

AbstractProfessional Sign Language translators, unlike their text-to-text counterparts, are not equipped with computer-assisted translation (CAT) software. Those softwares are meant to ease the translators’ tasks. No prior study as been conducted on this topic, and we aim at specifying such a software. To do so, we based our study on the professional Sign Language translators’ practices and needs. The aim of this paper is to identify the necessary steps in the text-to-sign translation process. By filming and interviewing professionals for both objective and subjective data, we build a list of tasks and see if they are systematic and performed in a definite order. Finally, we reflect on how CAT tools could assist those tasks, how to adapt the existing tools to Sign Language and what is necessary to add in order to fit the needs of Sign Language translation. In the long term, we plan to develop a first prototype of CAT software for sign languages.

scholarly journals Mapping of affordability levels for photovoltaic-based electricity generation in the solar belt of sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and South Asia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sándor Szabó ◽  
Irene Pinedo Pascua ◽  
Daniel Puig ◽  
Magda Moner-Girona ◽  
Mario Negre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Solar Photovoltaic ◽  
Term Operation ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
High Level ◽  
Do So

AbstractLack of access to modern forms of energy hampers efforts to reduce poverty. The provision of electricity to off-grid communities is therefore a long-standing developmental goal. Yet, many off-grid electrification projects neglect mid- and long-term operation and maintenance costs. When this is the case, electricity services are unlikely to be affordable to the communities that are the project’s primary target. Here we show that, compared with diesel-powered electricity generation systems, solar photovoltaic systems are more affordable to no less than 36% of the unelectrified populations in East Asia, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. We do so by developing geo-referenced estimates of affordability at a high level of resolution (1 km2). The analysis illustrates the differences in affordability that may be found at the subnational level, which underscores that electrification investments should be informed by subnational data.

scholarly journals Long-Term Concrete Shrinkage Influence on the Performance of Reinforced Concrete Structures

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 254
Author(s):  
Alinda Dey ◽  
Akshay Vijay Vastrad ◽  
Mattia Francesco Bado ◽  
Aleksandr Sokolov ◽  
Gintaris Kaklauskas
Keyword(s):  
Reinforced Concrete ◽  
Reinforced Concrete Structures ◽  
Tension Stiffening ◽  
Model Code ◽  
Concrete Shrinkage ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Governing Factor ◽  
Model Code 2010 ◽  
Mathematical Process

The contribution of concrete to the tensile stiffness (tension stiffening) of a reinforced concrete (RC) member is a key governing factor for structural serviceability analyses. However, among the current tension stiffening models, few consider the effect brought forth by concrete shrinkage, and none studies take account of the effect for very long-term shrinkage. The present work intends to tackle this exact issue by testing multiple RC tensile elements (with different bar diameters and reinforcement ratios) after a five-year shrinking time period. The experimental deformative and tension stiffening responses were subjected to a mathematical process of shrinkage removal aimed at assessing its effect on the former. The results showed shrinkage distinctly lowered the cracking load of the RC members and caused an apparent tension stiffening reduction. Furthermore, both of these effects were exacerbated in the members with higher reinforcement ratios. The experimental and shrinkage-free behaviors of the RC elements were finally compared to the values predicted by the CEB-fib Model Code 2010 and the Euro Code 2. Interestingly, as a consequence of the long-term shrinkage, the codes expressed a smaller relative error when compared to the shrinkage-free curves versus the experimental ones.

scholarly journals MBCL-14. A STUDY OF LOW-DOSE CRANIOSPINAL RADIATION THERAPY IN PATIENTS WITH NEWLY DIAGNOSED AVERAGE-RISK MEDULLOBLASTOMA

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (Supplement_3) ◽  
pp. iii390-iii391
Author(s):  
Aaron Mochizuki ◽  
Anna Janss ◽  
Sonia Partap ◽  
Paul Fisher ◽  
Yimei Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Radiation Therapy ◽  
Treatment Modalities ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Craniospinal Radiation ◽  
Grade 5 ◽  
Therapy Studies ◽  
Do So

Abstract INTRODUCTION Medulloblastoma is one of the most common malignant brain tumors in children. To date, the treatment of average-risk (non-metastatic, completely resected) medulloblastoma includes craniospinal radiation therapy and adjuvant chemotherapy. Modern treatment modalities and now risk stratification of subgroups have extended the survival of these patients, exposing the long-term morbidities associated with radiation therapy. METHODS We performed a single-arm, multi-institution study, seeking to reduce the late effects of treatment in patients with average-risk medulloblastoma prior to advances in molecular subgrouping. To do so, we reduced the dose of craniospinal irradiation by 25% to 18 gray with the goal of maintaining the therapeutic efficacy as described in CCG 9892 with maintenance chemotherapy. RESULTS 28 patients aged 3–30 years were enrolled across three institutions between April 2001 and December 2010. Median age at enrollment was 9 years with a median follow-up time of 11.7 years. The 3-year relapse-free (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were 78.6% (95% CI 58.4% to 89.8%) and 92.9% (95% CI 74.4% to 98.2%), respectively. The 5-year RFS and OS were 71.4% (95% CI 50.1% to 84.6%) and 85.7% (95% CI 66.3% to 94.4%), respectively. Toxicities were similar to those seen in other studies; there were no grade 5 toxicities. CONCLUSIONS Given the known neurocognitive adverse effects associated with cranial radiation therapy, studies to evaluate the feasibility of dose reduction are needed. In this study, we demonstrate that select patients with average-risk medulloblastoma may benefit from reduced craniospinal radiation dose of 18 gray without impacting relapse-free or overall survival.

ON THE CONSUMPTION/DISTRIBUTION THEOREM UNDER THE LONG-RUN GROWTH CRITERION SUBJECT TO A DRAWDOWN CONSTRAINT

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (06) ◽  
pp. 931-957 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHAEL J. KLASS ◽  
KRZYSZTOF NOWICKI
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Total Capital ◽  
Growth Criterion ◽  
Drawdown Constraint ◽  
Riskless Asset ◽  
Distribution Theorem

Consider any discrete time sequence of investment fortunes Fn which has a finite long-run growth rate [Formula: see text] when subject to the present value capital drawdown constraint Fne-rn ≥ λ* max 0≤k≤nFke-rk, where 0 ≤ λ* < 1, in the presence of a riskless asset affording a return of er dollars per time period per dollar invested. We show that money can be withdrawn for consumption from the invested capital without either reducing the long-run growth rate of such capital or violating the drawdown constraint for our capital sequence, while simultaneously increasing the amount of capital withdrawn for consumption at the identical long-term rate of V(r, λ*). We extend this result to an exponentially increasing number of consumption categories and discuss how additional yearly contributions can temporarily augment the total capital under management. In addition, we assess the short-term practicality of creating such an endowment/consumption/distribution program.

Data-driven tracking consensus for a class of unknown nonlinear multi-agent systems

2021 ◽  
pp. 107754632110340
Author(s):  
Jia Wu ◽  
Ning Liu ◽  
Wenyan Tang
Keyword(s):  
Control Method ◽  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Multi Agent Systems ◽  
Tracking Errors ◽  
Agent Systems ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Strongly Connected ◽  
Multi Agent

This study investigates the tracking consensus problem for a class of unknown nonlinear multi-agent systems A novel data-driven protocol for this problem is proposed by using the model-free adaptive control method To obtain faster convergence speed, one-step-ahead desired signal is introduced to construct the novel protocol Here, switching communication topology is considered, which is not required to be strongly connected all the time Through rigorous analysis, sufficient conditions are given to guarantee that the tracking errors of all agents are convergent under the novel protocol Examples are given to validate the effectiveness of results derived in this article

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