scholarly journals COVID-19 in Slovenia, from a Success Story to Disaster: What Lessons Can Be Learned?

Life ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1045
Author(s):  
Nina Ružić Gorenjec ◽  
Nataša Kejžar ◽  
Damjan Manevski ◽  
Maja Pohar Perme ◽  
Bor Vratanar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Success Story ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Entire Duration ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Late Stages ◽  
Similar Stage ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, Slovenia was among the least affected countries, but the situation became drastically worse during the second wave in autumn 2020 with high numbers of deaths per number of inhabitants, ranking Slovenia among the most affected countries. This was true even though strict non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the progression of the epidemic were being enforced. Using a semi-parametric Bayesian model developed for the purpose of this study, we explore if and how the changes in mobility, their timing and the activation of contact tracing can explain the differences in the epidemic progression of the two waves. To fit the model, we use data on daily numbers of deaths, patients in hospitals, intensive care units, etc., and allow transmission intensity to be affected by contact tracing and mobility (data obtained from Google Mobility Reports). Our results imply that though there is some heterogeneity not explained by mobility levels and contact tracing, implementing interventions at a similar stage as in the first wave would keep the death toll and the health system burden low in the second wave as well. On the other hand, sticking to the same timeline of interventions as observed in the second wave and focusing on enforcing a higher decrease in mobility would not be as beneficial. According to our model, the ‘dance’ strategy, i.e., first allowing the numbers to rise and then implementing strict interventions to make them drop again, has been played at too-late stages of the epidemic. In contrast, a 15–20% reduction of mobility compared to pre-COVID level, if started at the beginning and maintained for the entire duration of the second wave and coupled with contact tracing, could suffice to control the epidemic. A very important factor in this result is the presence of contact tracing; without it, the reduction in mobility needs to be substantially larger. The flexibility of our proposed model allows similar analyses to be conducted for other regions even with slightly different data sources for the progression of the epidemic; the extension to more than two waves is straightforward. The model could help policymakers worldwide to make better decisions in terms of the timing and severity of the adopted NPIs.

scholarly journals Socio-economic indicators correlate with daily mobility during the second-wave of the Covid-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jed Long ◽  
Chang Ren
Keyword(s):  
Positive Association ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Individual Mobility ◽  
Mobility Behaviour ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Over Time

Non-pharmaceutical interventions are being used globally to limit the spread of Covid-19, which are in turn affecting individual mobility patterns. Mobility measures were found to be strongly associated with regional socio-economic indicators during the first wave of the pandemic. Here, we use network mobility data from an ~3.5 million person sample of individuals in Ontario, Canada to study the association between three different individual-mobility measures and four socio-economic indicators throughout the first and second wave of Covid-19 (January to December 2020). We demonstrate that understanding how mobility behaviours have changed in response to Covid-19 varies considerably depending on how mobility is measured. We find a strong positive association between different mobility levels and the economic deprivation index, which demonstrates that inequities in the changes to mobility across economic gradients observed during the initial lockdown have persisted into the later stages of the pandemic. However, the associations between mobility and other socio-economic indicators vary over time. We capture a strong day-of-week pattern of association between socio-economic indicators and mobility levels. Our findings have important implications for understanding if and how mobility data should be used to study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the socio-economic conditions across geographical space, and over time. Our results support that Covid-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions have resulted in geographically disparate responses to mobility behaviour, and quantifying mobility changes at fine geographical scales is crucial to understanding the impacts of Covid-19 on local populations.

scholarly journals Discontinuous epidemic transition due to limited testing

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Scarselli ◽  
Nazmi Burak Budanur ◽  
Marc Timme ◽  
Björn Hof
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Growth Period ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Limited Testing ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractHigh impact epidemics constitute one of the largest threats humanity is facing in the 21st century. In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, physical distancing together with testing, contact tracing and quarantining are crucial in slowing down epidemic dynamics. Yet, here we show that if testing capacities are limited, containment may fail dramatically because such combined countermeasures drastically change the rules of the epidemic transition: Instead of continuous, the response to countermeasures becomes discontinuous. Rather than following the conventional exponential growth, the outbreak that is initially strongly suppressed eventually accelerates and scales faster than exponential during an explosive growth period. As a consequence, containment measures either suffice to stop the outbreak at low total case numbers or fail catastrophically if marginally too weak, thus implying large uncertainties in reliably estimating overall epidemic dynamics, both during initial phases and during second wave scenarios.

scholarly journals Modeling the impact of social distancing, testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second-wave scenarios of the COVID-19 epidemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Aleta ◽  
David Martin-Corral ◽  
Ana Pastore y Piontti ◽  
Marco Ajelli ◽  
Maria Litvinova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Health Care System ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Care System

The new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has required the implementation of severe mobility restrictions and social distancing measures worldwide. While these measures have been proven effective in abating the epidemic in several countries, it is important to estimate the effectiveness of testing and tracing strategies to avoid a potential second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. We integrate highly detailed (anonymized, privacy-enhanced) mobility data from mobile devices, with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model to describe the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that enforcing strict social distancing followed by a policy based on a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine, could keep the disease at a level that does not exceed the capacity of the health care system. Assuming the identification of 50% of the symptomatic infections, and the tracing of 40% of their contacts and households, which corresponds to about 9% of individuals quarantined, the ensuing reduction in transmission allows the reopening of economic activities while attaining a manageable impact on the health care system. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can play a major role in relaxing social distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals Modelling of Bi-Directional Spatio-Temporal Dependence and Users’ Dynamic Preferences for Missing POI Check-In Identification

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 5458-5465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongbo Xi ◽  
Fuzhen Zhuang ◽  
Yanchi Liu ◽  
Jingjing Gu ◽  
Hui Xiong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Location Prediction ◽  
Temporal Dependence ◽  
Great Opportunity ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Poi Recommendation ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Dynamic Preferences

Human mobility data accumulated from Point-of-Interest (POI) check-ins provides great opportunity for user behavior understanding. However, data quality issues (e.g., geolocation information missing, unreal check-ins, data sparsity) in real-life mobility data limit the effectiveness of existing POIoriented studies, e.g., POI recommendation and location prediction, when applied to real applications. To this end, in this paper, we develop a model, named Bi-STDDP, which can integrate bi-directional spatio-temporal dependence and users’ dynamic preferences, to identify the missing POI check-in where a user has visited at a specific time. Specifically, we first utilize bi-directional global spatial and local temporal information of POIs to capture the complex dependence relationships. Then, target temporal pattern in combination with user and POI information are fed into a multi-layer network to capture users’ dynamic preferences. Moreover, the dynamic preferences are transformed into the same space as the dependence relationships to form the final model. Finally, the proposed model is evaluated on three large-scale real-world datasets and the results demonstrate significant improvements of our model compared with state-of-the-art methods. Also, it is worth noting that the proposed model can be naturally extended to address POI recommendation and location prediction tasks with competitive performances.

scholarly journals The first 100 days of SARS-CoV-2 control in Vietnam

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thai Quang Pham ◽  
Maia Rabaa ◽  
Luong Huy Duong ◽  
Tan Quang Dang ◽  
Quang Dai Tran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Steering Committee ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Early Introduction ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions

Background: One hundred days after SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in Vietnam on January 23rd, 270 cases have been confirmed, with no deaths. We describe the control measures used and their relationship with imported and domestically-acquired case numbers. Methods: Data on the first 270 SARS-CoV-2 infected cases and the timing and nature of control measures were captured by Vietnam's National Steering Committee for COVID-19 response. Apple and Google mobility data provided population movement proxies. Serial intervals were calculated from 33 infector-infectee pairs and used to estimate the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission events and time-varying reproduction numbers. Results: After the first confirmed case on January 23rd, the Vietnamese Government initiated mass communications measures, contact tracing, mandatory 14-day quarantine, school and university closures, and progressive flight restrictions. A national lockdown was implemented between April 1st and 22nd. Around 200,000 people were quarantined and 266,122 RT-PCR tests conducted. Population mobility decreased progressively before lockdown. 60% (163/270) of cases were imported; 43% (89/208) of resolved infections were asymptomatic. 21 developed severe disease, with no deaths. The serial interval was 3.24 days, and 27.5% (95% confidence interval, 15.7%-40.0%) of transmissions occurred pre-symptomatically. Limited transmission amounted to a maximum reproduction number of 1.15 (95% confidence interval, 0.37-2.36). No community transmission has been detected since April 15th. Conclusions: Vietnam has controlled SARS-CoV-2 spread through the early introduction of communication, contact-tracing, quarantine, and international travel restrictions. The value of these interventions is supported by the high proportion of asymptomatic cases and imported cases, and evidence for substantial pre-symptomatic transmission.

scholarly journals Transmission dynamics and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the COVID-19 outbreak resurged in Beijing, China: a descriptive and modelling study

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. e047227
Author(s):  
Xiaoming Cui ◽  
Lin Zhao ◽  
Yuhao Zhou ◽  
Xin Lin ◽  
Runze Ye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Close Contact ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Wholesale Market ◽  
The People ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analyses ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Modelling Study

ObjectiveTo evaluate epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak resurged in Beijing and to assess the effects of three non-pharmaceutical interventions.DesignDescriptive and modelling study based on surveillance data of COVID-19 in Beijing.SettingOutbreak in Beijing.ParticipantsThe database included 335 confirmed cases of COVID-19.MethodsTo conduct spatiotemporal analyses of the outbreak, we collected individual records on laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 from 11 June 2020 to 5 July 2020 in Beijing, and visitor flow and products transportation data of Xinfadi Wholesale Market. We also built a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed model to investigate the effect of interventions deployed in Beijing.ResultsWe found that the staff working in the market (52.2%) and the people around 10 km to this epicentre (72.5%) were most affected, and the population mobility entering-exiting Xinfadi Wholesale Market significantly contributed to the spread of COVID-19 (p=0.021), but goods flow of the market had little impact on the virus spread (p=0.184). The prompt identification of Xinfadi Wholesale Market as the infection source could have avoided a total of 25 708 (95% CI 13 657 to 40 625) cases if unnoticed transmission lasted for a month. Based on the model, we found that active screening on targeted population by nucleic acid testing alone had the most significant effect.ConclusionsThe non-pharmaceutical interventions deployed in Beijing, including localised lockdown, close-contact tracing and community-based testing, were proved to be effective enough to contain the outbreak. Beijing has achieved an optimal balance between epidemic containment and economic protection.

scholarly journals Epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Nepal and the importance of social distancing to contain the virus

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-25
Author(s):  
Amod K. Pokhrel ◽  
Yadav P. Joshi ◽  
Sopnil Bhattarai
Keyword(s):  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Epidemiological Trend ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
The Government ◽  
Testing Case ◽  
The Impact

There is limited information on the epidemiology and the effects of mitigation measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Nepal. Using publicly available databases, we analyzed the epidemiological trend, the people's movement trends at different intervals across different categories of places and evaluated implications of social mobility on COVID-19. We also estimated the epidemic peak. As of June 9, 2020, Provinces 2 and 5 have most of the cases. People between 15 and 54 years are vulnerable to becoming infected, and more males than females are affected. The cases are growing exponentially. The growth rate of 0.13 and >1 reproduction numbers (R0) over time (median: 1.48; minimum: 0.58, and maximum: 3.71) confirms this trend. The case doubling time is five days. Google's community mobility data suggest that people strictly followed social distancing measures for one month after the lockdown. By around the 4th week of April, the individual's movement started rising, and social contacts increased. The number of cases peaked on May 12, with 83 confirmed cases in one day. The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model suggests that the epidemic will peak approximately on day 41 (July 21, 2020), and start to plateau after day 80. To contain the spread of the virus, people should maintain social distancing. The Government needs to continue active surveillance, more PCR-based testing, case detection, contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine. The Government should also provide financial support and safety-nets to the citizen to limit the impact of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Taiwan’s Successful COVID-19 Mitigation and Containment Strategy: Achieving Quasi Population Immunity

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li-Chien Chien ◽  
Christian K. Beÿ ◽  
Kristi L. Koenig
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Containment Strategy ◽  
Local Transmission ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

ABSTRACT The authors describe Taiwan’s successful strategy in achieving control of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) without economic shutdown, despite the prediction that millions of infections would be imported from travelers returning from Chinese New Year celebrations in Mainland China in early 2020. As of September 2, 2020, Taiwan reports 489 cases, 7 deaths, and no locally acquired COVID-19 cases for the last 135 days (greater than 4 months) in its population of over 23.8 million people. Taiwan created quasi population immunity through the application of established public health principles. These non-pharmaceutical interventions, including public masking and social distancing, coupled with early and aggressive identification, isolation, and contact tracing to inhibit local transmission, represent a model for optimal public health management of COVID-19 and future emerging infectious diseases.

Uncertainties over COVID-19 impacts fuel market fears

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Earnings ◽  
The Us ◽  
Viable Approach ◽  
Equity Index ◽  
Second Wave

Subject Financial market reactions to the pandemic Significance While policymakers and epidemiologists broadly agree that the only viable approach for substantially relaxing lockdowns and social distancing measures is mass community testing and contact tracing, there are significant differences of opinion on how sharply infection curves need to flatten before restrictions are eased. The risk that lockdowns -- which have become dangerously politicised -- will be lifted prematurely, causing a second wave of infections, poses a significant threat to the global economy and markets. Impacts The US S&P 500 equity index has surged since late March, but the bleak corporate earnings outlook means this is unlikely to be a bull run. The spread between Italian and German bonds has widened since late March, reflecting investors' persistent doubts about EU cooperation. The major central banks are likely to invest more than twice as much in sovereign and corporate bonds as in 2008, distorting bond markets.

scholarly journals Localized Calcium Signals along the Cleavage Furrow of theXenopus Egg Are Not Involved in Cytokinesis

2002 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1263-1273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsuhiko Noguchi ◽  
Issei Mabuchi
Keyword(s):  
Xenopus Laevis ◽  
The Other ◽  
Cleavage Furrow ◽  
Calcium Signals ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Late Stages

It has been proposed that a localized calcium (Ca) signal at the growing end of the cleavage furrow triggers cleavage furrow formation in large eggs. We have examined the possible role of a Ca signal in cleavage furrow formation in the Xenopus laevis egg during the first cleavage. We were able to detect two kinds of Ca waves along the cleavage furrow. However, the Ca waves appeared after cleavage furrow formation in late stages of the first cleavage. In addition, cleavage was not affected by injection of dibromoBAPTA or EGTA into the eggs at a concentration sufficient to suppress the Ca waves. Furthermore, even smaller classes of Ca release such as Ca puffs and Ca blips do not occur at the growing end of the cleavage furrow. These observations demonstrate that localized Ca signals in the cleavage furrow are not involved in cytokinesis. The two Ca waves have unique characteristics. The first wave propagates only in the region of newly inserted membrane along the cleavage furrow. On the other hand, the second wave propagates along the border of new and old membranes, suggesting that this wave might be involved in adhesion between two blastomeres.

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