Testing the Accuracy of the ARIMA Models in Forecasting the Spreading of COVID-19 and the Associated Mortality Rate

Background and objectives: The current pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 has not only changed, but also affected the lives of tens of millions of people around the world in these last nine to ten months. Although the situation is stable to some extent within the developed countries, approximately one million have already died as a consequence of the unique symptomatology that these people displayed. Thus, the need to develop an effective strategy for monitoring, restricting, but especially for predicting the evolution of COVID-19 is urgent, especially in middle-class countries such as Romania. Material and Methods: Therefore, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models have been created, aiming to predict the epidemiological course of COVID-19 in Romania by using two statistical software (STATGRAPHICS Centurion (v.18.1.13) and IBM SPSS (v.20.0.0)). To increase the accuracy, we collected data between the established interval (1 March, 31 August) from the official website of the Romanian Government and the World Health Organization. Results: Several ARIMA models were generated from which ARIMA (1,2,1), ARIMA (3,2,2), ARIMA (3,1,3), ARIMA (3,2,2), ARIMA (3,1,3), ARIMA (2,2,2) and ARIMA (1,2,1) were considered the best models. For this, we took into account the lowest value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for March, April, May, June, July, and August (MAPEMarch = 9.3225, MAPEApril = 0.975287, MAPEMay = 0.227675, MAPEJune = 0.161412, MAPEJuly = 0.243285, MAPEAugust = 0.163873, MAPEMarch – August = 2.29175 for STATGRAPHICS Centurion (v.18.1.13) and MAPEMarch = 57.505, MAPEApril = 1.152, MAPEMay = 0.259, MAPEJune = 0.185, MAPEJuly = 0.307, MAPEAugust = 0.194, and MAPEMarch – August = 6.013 for IBM SPSS (v.20.0.0) respectively. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that ARIMA is a useful statistical model for making predictions and provides an idea of the epidemiological status of the country of interest.

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Trend of Social Media News: A Viewpoint of COVID-19 Tweets Using Natural Language Processing

10.31219/osf.io/zjkra ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

AISDL

Keyword(s):

Social Media ◽

Natural Language Processing ◽

Natural Language ◽

Language Processing ◽

Developed Countries ◽

World Health ◽

The World ◽

Twitter Users ◽

The Developed Countries ◽

Health Organization

The meteoric rise of social media news during the ongoing COVID-19 is worthy of advanced research. Freedom of speech in many parts of the world, especially the developed countries and liberty of socialization, calls for noteworthy information sharing during the panic pandemic. However, as a communication intervention during crises in the past, social media use is remarkable; the Tweets generated via Twitter during the ongoing COVID-19 is incomparable with the former records. This study examines social media news trends and compares the Tweets on COVID-19 as a corpus from Twitter. By deploying Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods on tweets, we were able to extract and quantify the similarities between some tweets over time, which means that some people say the same thing about the pandemic while other Twitter users view it differently. The tools we used are Spacy, Networkx, WordCloud, and Re. This study contributes to the social media literature by understanding the similarity and divergence of COVID-19 tweets of the public and health agencies such as the World Health Organization (WHO). The study also sheds more light on the COVID-19 sparse and densely text network and their implications for the policymakers. The study explained the limitations and proposed future studies.

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Forecasting the Spreading of COVID-19 across Nine Countries from Europe, Asia, and the American Continents Using the ARIMA Models

Microorganisms ◽

10.3390/microorganisms8081158 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (8) ◽

pp. 1158 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Ovidiu-Dumitru Ilie ◽

Roxana-Oana Cojocariu ◽

Alin Ciobica ◽

Sergiu-Ioan Timofte ◽

Ioannis Mavroudis ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Moving Average ◽

World Health ◽

Percentage Error ◽

Arima Models ◽

Current Crisis ◽

Efficient Manner ◽

Republic Of Moldova ◽

Short Period ◽

The Republic ◽

Health Organization

Since mid-November 2019, when the first SARS-CoV-2-infected patient was officially reported, the new coronavirus has affected over 10 million people from which half a million died during this short period. There is an urgent need to monitor, predict, and restrict COVID-19 in a more efficient manner. This is why Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models have been developed and used to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Ukraine, Romania, the Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Bulgaria, Hungary, USA, Brazil, and India, these last three countries being otherwise the most affected presently. To increase accuracy, the daily prevalence data of COVID-19 from 10 March 2020 to 10 July 2020 were collected from the official website of the Romanian Government GOV.RO, World Health Organization (WHO), and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) websites. Several ARIMA models were formulated with different ARIMA parameters. ARIMA (1, 1, 0), ARIMA (3, 2, 2), ARIMA (3, 2, 2), ARIMA (3, 1, 1), ARIMA (1, 0, 3), ARIMA (1, 2, 0), ARIMA (1, 1, 0), ARIMA (0, 2, 1), and ARIMA (0, 2, 0) models were chosen as the best models, depending on their lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values for Ukraine, Romania, the Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Bulgaria, Hungary, USA, Brazil, and India (4.70244, 1.40016, 2.76751, 2.16733, 2.98154, 2.11239, 3.21569, 4.10596, 2.78051). This study demonstrates that ARIMA models are suitable for making predictions during the current crisis and offers an idea of the epidemiological stage of these regions.

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Predicting the Pandemic COVID-19 Using ARIMA Model

VNU Journal of Science Mathematics - Physics ◽

10.25073/2588-1124/vnumap.4492 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 36 (4) ◽

Author(s):

Nguyen Quoc Duong ◽

Le Phuong Thao ◽

Dinh Thi Nhu Quynh ◽

Le Thanh Binh ◽

Cao Thi Ai Loan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Moving Average ◽

Arima Model ◽

Information Criterion ◽

World Health ◽

Percentage Error ◽

The World ◽

Validation Set ◽

Short Term Forecasting ◽

Health Organization ◽

Global Threat

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been recognized as a global threat, and several studies are being conducted using various mathematical models to predict the probable evolution of this epidemic. The main objective of this study is to apply AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model with the objective of monitoring and short-term forecasting the total confirmed new cases per day all over the world. The data are extracted from daily report of World Health Organization from 21st January 2020 to 16th March 2020. Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Ljung-Box test were used to evaluate the constructed models. To assess the validity of the proposed model, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the observed and fitted of COVID-19 total confirmed new cases was calculated. Finally, we applied “forecast” package in R software and the fitted ARIMA model to predict the infections of COVID-19. We found that the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) model was able to describe and predict the epidemiological trend of the disease of COVID-19. The MAPE and RMSE for the training set and validation set respectively, which we found was reasonable for use in the forecast. Furthermore, the model also provided forecast total confirmed new cases for the following days. ARIMA model applied to COVID-19 confirmed cases data are an important tool for COVID-19 surveillance all over the world. This study shows that accurate forecasting of the COVID-19 trend is possible using an ARIMA model. Unless strict infection management and control are taken, our findings indicate the potential of COVID-19 to cause greater outbreak all over the world.

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Impact of Lockdown and Challenges of Covid-19 on the Indian Economy

VEETHIKA-An International Interdisciplinary Research Journal ◽

10.48001/veethika.2021.07.01.002 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 8-12

Author(s):

R. L. Sharma

Keyword(s):

State Government ◽

Global Economy ◽

Developed Countries ◽

World Health ◽

Indian Government ◽

Indian Economy ◽

Corona Virus ◽

The World ◽

The Developed Countries ◽

Health Organization

In recent years Indian economy was passing through the recession and economic slowdown now the corona virus has impacted the economy massively through the lockdown. The nationwide lockdown called in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic had taken a serious toll on the fiscal positions of the central and state government. The corona virus is spreading quickly around the globe. India is now facing its greatest crisis since its independence. In the wake of global slowdown growth of the Indian economy, the fiscal situation in the financial year is supposed to remain subdued and challenging. Indian government took the lesson from the developed countries like USA, UK and Germany and on the basis of the experiences of China and Korea to tackle this pandemic took the path of lockdown the country to save from community spread. The World Health Organization (WHO) has already declared it as world pandemic. More than 100 years later, we are witnessing the spectacle of a virus, after Spanish flew forcing nations to shut down for weeks at a time. That is why economists across the world believe that the global economy is in for its biggest recession in nearly two decades. Due to this lockdown almost every sector of the economy has been affected. The countrywide lockdown put the Indian economy into troubled waters. We have many challenges in this corona pandemic before the economy, these are revival of economy, rebuilding of confidence among the migratory labour, employment generation and control of pandemic.

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Peran Iklan dan Kelompok Referensi terhadap Minat Pembelian Ulang Obat Herbal

Binus Business Review ◽

10.21512/bbr.v1i1.1074 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 266

Author(s):

Retno Dewanti ◽

Sylvie Sylvie

Keyword(s):

Herbal Product ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Causal Analysis ◽

World Health ◽

Quality Perception ◽

Indirect Influence ◽

The World ◽

Reference Quality ◽

The Developed Countries ◽

Health Organization

In 2010 sales forcast proposed the Herbal product on the world has been target US 80 Billion. The Herbal product was accepted on range in the developed countries and the Forward Countries. Suggest of World Health Organization is until 65% people on the forward countries and 80% people the developed Countries used Herbal Product. The prospect of herbal product is relating with Customer interest towards Herbal product, caused that want to know the essential of determinant variable on the customer interest to repeat buying the Herbal product. The aim research was measure the direct and indirect influences of the advertising role and the group of reference towards the customer interest to repeat buying the herbal product.The methodology used Causal analysis with path analysis. The research respondent is Buyer Herbal Product Ling Shen yao in Jakarta which amount sample is 100 person.The result of research explain the theories although referring Causility among variables which is Advertising of Magazine, the group of reference, Quality perception and customer interest to repeat buying, but the fact of research justified is causality advertising have indirect influence toward customer interest to repeat buying through Quality perception and the other hand the group of reference have direct and indirect influence towards customer interest to repeat buying the herbal product.

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GROWTH STANDARDS AND CHARTS

The Professional Medical Journal ◽

10.29309/tpmj/2014.21.02.1970 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 21 (02) ◽

pp. 232-239

Author(s):

Abdul Rehman

Keyword(s):

World Health Organization ◽

Developed Countries ◽

World Health ◽

Growth Standards ◽

The World ◽

Growth References ◽

The Developed Countries ◽

Health Organization

There are a number of growth references available for children internationally butin 2006 the World health organization published growth standards for children 0 60 months.These growth standards have been adopted even by the developed countries though with somemodifications. This article discusses the various aspects of growth standards including plotting ofcharts and their interpretation.

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Estimating COVID-19 cases in Makkah region of Saudi Arabia: Space-time ARIMA modeling

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0250149 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (4) ◽

pp. e0250149

Author(s):

Fuad A. Awwad ◽

Moataz A. Mohamoud ◽

Mohamed R. Abonazel

Keyword(s):

Saudi Arabia ◽

Moving Average ◽

Arima Model ◽

Daily Basis ◽

World Health ◽

Arima Models ◽

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽

First Case ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

The Impact

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 is spreading across the globe. By 30 Sep 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the number of cases worldwide had reached 34 million with more than one million deaths. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) registered the first case of COVID-19 on 2 Mar 2020. Since then, the number of infections has been increasing gradually on a daily basis. On 20 Sep 2020, the KSA reported 334,605 cases, with 319,154 recoveries and 4,768 deaths. The KSA has taken several measures to control the spread of COVID-19, especially during the Umrah and Hajj events of 1441, including stopping Umrah and performing this year’s Hajj in reduced numbers from within the Kingdom, and imposing a curfew on the cities of the Kingdom from 23 Mar to 28 May 2020. In this article, two statistical models were used to measure the impact of the curfew on the spread of COVID-19 in KSA. The two models are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Spatial Time-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (STARIMA) model. We used the data obtained from 31 May to 11 October 2020 to assess the model of STARIMA for the COVID-19 confirmation cases in (Makkah, Jeddah, and Taif) in KSA. The results show that STARIMA models are more reliable in forecasting future epidemics of COVID-19 than ARIMA models. We demonstrated the preference of STARIMA models over ARIMA models during the period in which the curfew was lifted.

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Osteopathic correction in the treatment of pain in the lower back

Russian Osteopathic Journal ◽

10.32885/2220-0975-2020-1-2-140-146 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 140-146

Author(s):

V. O. Belash ◽

Yu. O. Novikov

Keyword(s):

Back Pain ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Economic Problem ◽

World Health ◽

Randomized Controlled ◽

Lower Back ◽

The World ◽

Working Age ◽

Acute Back Pain ◽

Health Organization

According to experts of the World Health Organization the lower back pain (LBP) prevalence in developed countries reaches the pandemic size, and it is a serious medical and socio-economic problem. Acute back pain is transformed into chronic in 10–20 % of working age patients′ cases; this causes serious psychological disorders appearing, forms painful behavior and persists even when the initial pain trigger is eliminated. Data from metaanalyses of randomized controlled trials indicate the effectiveness of the osteopathic approach in the treatment of LBP patients. At the same time the osteopathic correction is effective not only for acute pain, but also for chronic pain. A case from clinical practice is described demonstrating the possibility of osteopathic correction of a LBP patient.

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Evaluation of the Therapeutic Effectiveness of Combined Action Antiallergic Drugs in Monotherapy of Allergic Conjunctivitis

Ophthalmology in Russia ◽

10.18008/1816-5095-2020-1-117-123 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (1) ◽

pp. 117-123

Author(s):

N. G. Zumbulidze ◽

V. M. Khokkanen ◽

I. B. Litvin

Keyword(s):

Allergic Conjunctivitis ◽

Systemic Exposure ◽

Local Therapy ◽

Allergic Diseases ◽

Developed Countries ◽

World Health ◽

Common Disease ◽

Ophthalmic Manifestations ◽

The World ◽

Health Organization

According to statistical studies in recent decades, there has been an increase of allergic diseases in most countries of the world. Predisposing factors are the deterioration of the environmental situation, the total “chemicalization” of life and the forced use of drugs. Twenty years ago, the World Health Organization called the new century “the century of allergies” and the disease itself as an “epidemic”. As time has shown, these forecasts have come true: from 2001 to 2010, the number of allergic people in the world increased by 20 % and many of these patients suffer from ophthalmic manifestations of the pathology: the eyes are involved in the process in almost every second case. This is due to the fact that the eyes are directly exposed to the environment and a variety of external allergens. The most common disease of an eye-allergic nature is allergic conjunctivitis: approximately 15 % of the total population of economically developed countries suffer from it. Allergic blepharitis, eyelid dermatitis, keratitis, iritis, uveitis, retinitis and optic neuritis are much less common. The following manifestations are typical for allergic conjunctivitis: burning, lacrimation, pruritus, hyperemia of the eyelids and conjunctiva, photophobia. In the case of a transition to a chronic form, pronounced tissue changes are observed. Therefore, timely diagnosis and effective treatment certainly have a positive effect on the quality of life of the patient and the course of the disease. The treatment of patients with allergic conjunctivitis, first of all, consists in the maximum possible restriction of contact with the allergen. During desensitizing therapy, local and general drugs are used. Numerous studies have proven the advantage of targeted and effective antiallergic local therapy compared with systemic exposure. Currently used local ophthalmic antiallergic drugs belonging to various groups. The tactics of their use is determined by the acuity, severity and etiology of the process. When choosing a drug, in some cases, you should focus on the presence of substances that provide a double mechanism of action: a pronounced antihistamine activity in combination with the stabilization properties of mast cells, which has a quick and long therapeutic effect. This study evaluated efficacy of Vizallergol (olopatadin 0.2 %) application in cases of allergic conjunctivitis in 239 patients was evaluated. The medication arrested the symptoms of allergic conjunctivitis in 89 % of patients, at that the mean period of treatment made 10.7 ± 0.3 days. In the treatment of allergic conjunctivitis, the therapeutic efficacy of Vizallergol 0.2 % was comparable to opatanol 0.1 % and was found to be more comfortable for most patients due to the convenience of a single use.

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End-of-Life Care in Turkey

Cambridge Quarterly of Healthcare Ethics ◽

10.1017/s0963180103123109 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 279-284 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

N. YASEMIN OGUZ ◽

STEVEN H. MILES ◽

NUKET BUKEN ◽

MURAT CIVANER

Keyword(s):

End Of Life ◽

International Organizations ◽

End Of Life Care ◽

Premature Death ◽

Developed Countries ◽

World Health ◽

Life Care ◽

The World ◽

Health Organization ◽

Aging Societies

Most physicians confront the moral and technical challenges of treating persons who are coming to the natural end of their lives. At the level of the health system, this issue becomes a more pressing area for reform as premature death decreases and more people live a full life span. Well-developed countries and international organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have made recommendations for improving healthcare problems in aging societies. Turkey belongs to the WHO and the OECD. This article describes end-of-life healthcare in Turkey, the design of the healthcare system to meet this need, challenges that should be addressed, and solutions that would be appropriate to Turkish culture and resources.

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