scholarly journals Investigating the Impacts of Energy Access Scenarios in the Nigerian Household Sector by 2030

Resources ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael O. Dioha ◽  
Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Energy Access ◽  
Systems Model ◽  
Final Energy Demand

Lack of access to modern forms of energy continues to hamper socio-economic development in Nigeria, and about 94% and 39% of the Nigerian population do not have access to clean cooking equipment and electricity, respectively. The United Nations Sustainable Energy for All initiative and Sustainable Development Goal number seven seek to provide universal modern energy for all by 2030. However, the implications of these global goals on Nigeria’s energy system have not been well researched in the literature. In this study, we applied the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning Systems model to analyse the impacts of different energy access scenarios by 2030 on household energy consumption, CO2 emissions and local air pollutant emissions. We also analysed different scenarios for biomass renewability in order to understand its impact on household net CO2 emissions. We found that achieving a 100% modern energy access by 2030 would reduce final energy demand by around 845 PJ, which is equivalent to a 52.4% reduction when compared to the baseline scenario. A 100% modern access would also significantly reduce local air pollutants, but increase CO2 emissions significantly by 16.7 MtCO2 compared to the baseline scenario. Our analysis shows that the benefits of modern energy access have been limited in Nigeria due to poor financing and low income levels of households. Therefore, we argue that for a 100% modern energy access in Nigeria by 2030, there is a need to explore local and foreign funding sources, and a serious need to couple energy access programs in the country with income-generating activities.

scholarly journals Traffic noise feedback in agent-based Integrated Land-Use/Transport Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nico Kuehnel ◽  
Dominik Ziemke ◽  
Rolf Moeckel
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Noise Exposure ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
Common Source ◽  
Environmental Implications ◽  
Transport Models ◽  
Agent Based

Road traffic is a common source of negative environmental externalities such as noise and air pollution. While existing transport models are capable of accurately representing environmental stressors of road traffic, this is less true for integrated land-use/transport models. So-called land-use-transport-environment models aim to integrate environmental impacts. However, the environmental implications are often analyzed as an output of the model only, even though research suggests that the environment itself can have an impact on land use. The few existing models that actually introduce a feedback between land-use and environment fall back on aggregated zonal values. This paper presents a proof of concept for an integrated, microscopic and agent-based approach for a feedback loop between transport-related noise emissions and land-use. The results show that the microscopic link between the submodels is operational and fine-grained analysis by different types of agents is possible. It is shown that high-income households react differently to noise exposure when compared low-income households. The presented approach opens new possibilities for analyzing and understanding noise abatement policies as well as issues of environmental equity. The methodology can be transferred to include air pollutant emissions in the future.

scholarly journals HTAP_v2.2: a mosaic of regional and global emission grid maps for 2008 and 2010 to study hemispheric transport of air pollution

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (19) ◽  
pp. 11411-11432 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Janssens-Maenhout ◽  
M. Crippa ◽  
D. Guizzardi ◽  
F. Dentener ◽  
M. Muntean ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
Pollution Transport ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Per Capita

Abstract. The mandate of the Task Force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP) under the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) is to improve the scientific understanding of the intercontinental air pollution transport, to quantify impacts on human health, vegetation and climate, to identify emission mitigation options across the regions of the Northern Hemisphere, and to guide future policies on these aspects. The harmonization and improvement of regional emission inventories is imperative to obtain consolidated estimates on the formation of global-scale air pollution. An emissions data set has been constructed using regional emission grid maps (annual and monthly) for SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, PM2.5, BC and OC for the years 2008 and 2010, with the purpose of providing consistent information to global and regional scale modelling efforts. This compilation of different regional gridded inventories – including that of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for USA, the EPA and Environment Canada (for Canada), the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) for Europe, and the Model Inter-comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia III) for China, India and other Asian countries – was gap-filled with the emission grid maps of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.3) for the rest of the world (mainly South America, Africa, Russia and Oceania). Emissions from seven main categories of human activities (power, industry, residential, agriculture, ground transport, aviation and shipping) were estimated and spatially distributed on a common grid of 0.1° × 0.1° longitude-latitude, to yield monthly, global, sector-specific grid maps for each substance and year. The HTAP_v2.2 air pollutant grid maps are considered to combine latest available regional information within a complete global data set. The disaggregation by sectors, high spatial and temporal resolution and detailed information on the data sources and references used will provide the user the required transparency. Because HTAP_v2.2 contains primarily official and/or widely used regional emission grid maps, it can be recommended as a global baseline emission inventory, which is regionally accepted as a reference and from which different scenarios assessing emission reduction policies at a global scale could start. An analysis of country-specific implied emission factors shows a large difference between industrialised countries and developing countries for acidifying gaseous air pollutant emissions (SO2 and NOx) from the energy and industry sectors. This is not observed for the particulate matter emissions (PM10, PM2.5), which show large differences between countries in the residential sector instead. The per capita emissions of all world countries, classified from low to high income, reveal an increase in level and in variation for gaseous acidifying pollutants, but not for aerosols. For aerosols, an opposite trend is apparent with higher per capita emissions of particulate matter for low income countries.

scholarly journals Indicators for the optimization of sustainable urban energy systems based on energy system modeling

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Klemm ◽  
Frauke Wiese
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Systems ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Energy Sustainability ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Urban Energy ◽  
Absolute Energy ◽  
Final Energy Demand

Abstract Background Urban energy systems are responsible for 75% of the world’s energy consumption and for 70% of the worldwide greenhouse gas emissions. Energy system models are used to optimize, benchmark and compare such energy systems with the help of energy sustainability indicators. We discuss several indicators for their basic suitability and their response to changing boundary conditions, system structures and reference values. The most suitable parameters are applied to four different supply scenarios of a real-world urban energy system. Results There is a number of energy sustainability indicators, but not all of them are suitable for the use in urban energy system optimization models. Shortcomings originate from the omission of upstream energy supply chains (secondary energy efficiency), from limited capabilities to compare small energy systems (energy productivity), from excessive accounting expense (regeneration rate), from unsuitable accounting methods (primary energy efficiency), from a questionable impact of some indicators on the overall system sustainability (self-sufficiency), from the lack of detailed information content (share of renewables), and more. On the other hand, indicators of absolute greenhouse gas emissions, energy costs, and final energy demand are well suitable for the use in optimization models. However, each of these indicators only represents partial aspects of energy sustainability; the use of only one indicator in the optimization process increases the risk that other important aspects will deteriorate significantly, eventually leading to suboptimal or even unrealistic scenarios in practice. Therefore, multi-criteria approaches should be used to enable a more holistic optimization and planning of sustainable urban energy systems. Conclusion We recommend multi-criteria optimization approaches using the indicators of absolute greenhouse gas emissions, absolute energy costs, and absolute energy demand. For benchmarking and comparison purposes, specific indicators should be used and therefore related to the final energy demand, respectively, the number of inhabitants. Our example scenarios demonstrate modeling strategies to optimize sustainability of urban energy systems.

scholarly journals Identification of Key Factors to Reduce Transport-Related Air Pollutants and CO2 Emissions in Asia

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 7621
Author(s):  
Shuanghui Bao ◽  
Osamu Nishiura ◽  
Shinichiro Fujimori ◽  
Ken Oshiro ◽  
Runsen Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Emission Control ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Carbon Pricing

Asian countries are major contributors to global air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, with transportation demand and emissions expected to increase. However, few studies have been performed to evaluate policies that could reduce transport-related emissions in the region. This study explores transport-related CO2 and air pollutant emissions in major Asian nations along with the impacts of transport, climate, and emission control policies using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)/Transport model. Our results show that by 2050, CO2 emissions in developing countries will be 1.4–4.7-fold greater than the levels in 2005, while most air pollutant emissions will show large reductions (mean annual reduction rates of 0.2% to 6.1%). Notably, implementation of transport, emission control, and carbon pricing policies would reduce CO2 emissions by up to 33% and other air pollutants by 43% to 72%, depending on the emission species. An emission control policy represents the strongest approach for short-term and mid-term reduction of air pollutants. A carbon pricing policy would lead to a direct reduction in CO2 emissions; more importantly, air pollutant emissions would also be effectively reduced. Shifting to public transportation in developing countries can also greatly influence emissions reductions. An increase in traffic speed shows relatively small effects, but can be meaningful in Japan.

scholarly journals Empirical Explanations of Carbon Mitigation during Periods of Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranran Wang ◽  
Valentina A. Assenova ◽  
Edgar Hertwich
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
Reduce Emissions ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2

Prior research on the empirical relationship between anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and economic growth, as measured by increases in gross domestic product (GDP), indicate that a 1% growth in GDP can lead to anything between an increase in emissions by 2.5% to a decline by 0.3%. Studies have paid little attention to independent mechanisms that reduce emissions. Statistical properties of the data undermine the estimation techniques used in many studies. To address these shortcomings, we used novel methods and panel data integrating emissions, economic, and energy-system characteristics across 70 economies over 1970-2013 to derive a universal GDP-emissions relationship and identify key emissions-reduction mechanisms. We found that, robust to a variety of estimation procedures, every 1% increase in GDP was associated with a 1% increase in CO2 emissions when controlling for other mechanisms. Emissions reductions were mainly driven by four mechanisms: (i) energy system decarbonization, (ii) increased economic efficiency, (iii) electrification, and (iv) deindustrialization. A 1% increase in these factors was associated with 0.2-1.8% reductions in CO2 emissions per year; together, these factors contributed to 18 petagrams of emissions reduction globally over 1970-2013. Decarbonization contributed most to emissions reductions in high-income economies, while economic efficiency and electrification contributed most to reductions in low-income economies.

scholarly journals Modeling framework for exploring emission impacts of alternative future scenarios

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 2021-2050 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. H. Loughlin ◽  
W. G. Benjey ◽  
C. G. Nolte
Keyword(s):  
Growth Factors ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Emission Growth ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2

Abstract. This article presents an approach for creating anthropogenic emission scenarios that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The approach focuses on energy production and use since these are principal sources of air pollution. We use the MARKAL model to characterize alternative realizations of the US energy system through 2050. Emission growth factors are calculated for major energy system categories using MARKAL, while growth factors from non-energy sectors are based on economic and population projections. The SMOKE model uses these factors to grow a base-year 2002 inventory to future years through 2050. The approach is demonstrated for two emission scenarios: Scenario 1 extends current air regulations through 2050, while Scenario 2 applies a hypothetical policy that limits carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy system. Although both scenarios show significant reductions in air pollutant emissions through time, these reductions are more pronounced in Scenario 2, where the CO2 policy results in the adoption of technologies with lower emissions of both CO2 and traditional air pollutants. The methodology is expected to play an important role in investigations of linkages among emission drivers, climate and air quality by the U.S. EPA and others.

scholarly journals Analysis of Dependencies between Gas and Electricity Distribution Grid Planning and Building Energy Retrofit Decisions

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (13) ◽  
pp. 5315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Then ◽  
Patrick Hein ◽  
Tanja M. Kneiske ◽  
Martin Braun
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Business Models ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Heating System ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Distribution Grid ◽  
Energy Retrofit ◽  
Building Retrofit ◽  
Agent Simulation ◽  
Final Energy Demand

Most macroeconomic studies predict a decline in final energy demand and the use of natural gas in the heating sector in Europe. In the course of building retrofitting, gas-based heating systems are predominantly replaced by electricity-based solutions. This influences the business models of electricity and especially gas distribution network operators (DNOs), where grid charges tend to rise. The resulting feedback effect could accelerate the decrease of demand and finally lead to the defection of the gas grid—an effect that has been neglected in energy system analysis so far. We present a multi-agent simulation with a rule-based gas and electricity DNO model and a building retrofit optimization model to analyze these interdependencies during the transformation path, focusing on the role of different technical, economic, and regulatory triggers. Our case studies for a real grid area of a German city shows that an interplay of the gas and electricity DNO’s strategy, as well as the building-, heating system-, grid-, and trigger-configuration, determine the decision on the extension, continuation, or defection of the gas grid infrastructure. Finally, strategies for how to reduce the risk of a gas grid defection, which are relevant for DNOs, policy makers, and creators of macro-economic models, are discussed.

scholarly journals Energy saving and reduction of emissions in heating residential buildings in Poland – potential and selected activities

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 ◽  
pp. 00044
Author(s):  
Piotr Lis
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Total Energy ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Single Family ◽  
Total Energy Consumption ◽  
Reduction Of Emissions

The communal and living sector, to the extent that it is the sub-sector of buildings with a majority share of residential buildings, on average, account for approximately 41% of total energy consumption in the European Union. Due to a large share in the total energy consumption, the buildings sector has a significant potential to improve the energy efficiency of existing buildings and thus significantly reduce emission of air pollutants. One way is through thermal modernization. The article presents the expected energy and environmental effects of measures which adjust the existing residential buildings to the requirements in force in Poland since 2021. It has been assumed that the energy demand for heating buildings will be limited to the level of 55 kWh/(m2year) for multi-family residential buildings and 60 kWh/(m2year) for single-family residential buildings. The calculations show that it is possible to reduce energy consumption for heating of residential buildings by over 70%, which will result in a reduction of the total air pollutant emissions from housing heating, in relation to the situation in 2011. The article indicates existing reserves in thermal modernization activities and related problems based on the analysis of selected parameters of residential buildings.

scholarly journals ESP v1.0: methodology for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 287-297 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. H. Loughlin ◽  
W. G. Benjey ◽  
C. G. Nolte
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Growth Factors ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Energy System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
Modeling Framework

Abstract. This article presents a methodology for creating anthropogenic emission inventories that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) methodology focuses on energy production and use, the principal sources of many air pollutants. Emission growth factors for energy system categories are calculated using the MARKAL energy system model. Growth factors for non-energy sectors are based on economic and population projections. These factors are used to grow a 2005 emissions inventory through 2050. The approach is demonstrated for two emission scenarios for the United States. Scenario 1 extends current air regulations through 2050, while Scenario 2 adds a hypothetical CO2 mitigation policy. Although both scenarios show significant reductions in air pollutant emissions through time, these reductions are more pronounced in Scenario 2, where the CO2 policy results in the adoption of technologies with lower emissions of both CO2 and traditional air pollutants. The methodology is expected to play an important role within an integrated modeling framework that supports the US EPA's investigations of linkages among emission drivers, climate and air quality.

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