Forecasting Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Thailand’s Construction Sector by Enriching the LS-ARIMAXi-ECM Model

The Thailand Development Policy focuses on the simultaneous growth of the economy, society, and environment. Long-term goals have been set to improve economic and social well-being. At the same time, these aim to reduce the emission of CO2 in the future, especially in the construction sector, which is deemed important in terms of national development and is a high generator of greenhouse gas. In order to achieve national sustainable development, policy formulation and planning is becoming necessary and requires a tool to undertake such a formulation. The tool is none other than the forecasting of CO2 emissions in long-term energy consumption to produce a complete and accurate formulation. This research aims to study and forecast energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in Thailand’s construction sector by applying a model incorporating the long- and short-term auto-regressive (AR), integrated (I), moving average (MA) with exogenous variables (Xi) and the error correction mechanism (LS-ARIMAXi-ECM) model. This model is established and attempts to fill the gaps left by the old models. In fact, the model is constructed based on factors that are causal and influential for changes in CO2 emissions. Both independent variables and dependent variables must be stationary at the same level. In addition, the LS-ARIMAXi-ECM model deploys a co-integration analysis and error correction mechanism (ECM) in its modeling. The study’s findings reveal that the LS-ARIMAXi -ECM model is a forecasting model with an appropriate time period (t − i), as justified by the Q-test statistic and is not a spurious model. Therefore, it is used to forecast CO2 emissions for the next 20 years (2019 to 2038). From the study, the results show that CO2 emissions in the construction sector will increase by 37.88% or 61.09 Mt CO2 Eq. in 2038. Also, the LS-ARIMAXi -ECM model has been evaluated regarding its performance, and it produces a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.01% and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.93% as compared to the old models. Overall, the results indicate that determining future national sustainable development policies requires an appropriate forecasting model, which is built upon causal and contextual factors according to relevant sectors, to serve as an important tool for future sustainable planning.

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Pembangunan Ekonomi, Industrialisasi, dan Degradasi Lingkungan Hidup di Indonesia Tahun 1967-2013: Enviromental Kuznet Curve Model

Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan ◽

10.24843/jekt.2019.v12.i01.p08 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Andi Kurniawan

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Error Correction ◽

Co2 Emissions ◽

Environmental Degradation ◽

Environmental Damage ◽

Kuznets Curve ◽

Short Term ◽

Error Correction Mechanism ◽

The Impact

Penelitian ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi dampak pembangunan ekonomi dan proses industrialisasi terhadap Degradasi lingkungan di Indonesia baik dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek. Untuk melihat pengaruh pembangunan ekonomi dan industrialisasi terhadap penurunan kualitas lingkungan di Indonesia, penelitian ini menggunakan model Enviromental Kuznet Curve (EKC) dan dengan model Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). Hasil penelitian menjelaskan bahwa dalam jangka panjang peningkatan pendapatan masyarakat dan industrilasasi berpengaruh positif secara linier terhadap peningkatan emisi C02 dan pada tingkat pendapatan tertentu terjadi proses perbaikan lingkungan yang ditandai dengan penurunan emisi CO2. Namun dalam jangka pendek hanya industrialisasi yeng membrikan pengaruh pada peningkatan emisi CO2. Diharapkan adanya konsesus bersama antara pemerintah dan pelaku usaha (industri) dalam mengurangi dampak pencemaran serta adanya peningkatan kesadaran masyakat dalam membantu mengurangi kerusakan lingkungan hidup. Abstract This study aims to identify the impact of economic development and industrialization to the environmental degradation in Indonesia, both in the long term and short term. To see the effect of economic development and industrialization to the environmental degradation in Indonesia, this research was used Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model and the model of Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The results of the study explain that in the long term, improvement of people's income and industrialization have positive effect linearly with the increase in C02 emissions and at a certain income level there is a process improvement environment characterized by a decrease in CO2 emissions. But in the short term only industrialization which influence on the increase of CO2 emissions Expected that the consensus between the government and businesses (industri) in reducing the impact of pollution and the increased awareness of society in helping to reduce environmental damage.

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Estimation of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from a Traditional Nutrient-Rich Cambodian Diet Food Production System Using Life Cycle Assessment

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13073660 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (7) ◽

pp. 3660

Author(s):

Rathna Hor ◽

Phanna Ly ◽

Agusta Samodra Putra ◽

Riaru Ishizaki ◽

Tofael Ahamed ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Life Cycle Assessment ◽

Life Cycle ◽

Co2 Emissions ◽

Production System ◽

Agricultural Production ◽

Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽

Food Production ◽

Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽

Food Production System

Traditional Cambodian food has higher nutrient balances and is environmentally sustainable compared to conventional diets. However, there is a lack of knowledge and evidence on nutrient intake and the environmental greenness of traditional food at different age distributions. The relationship between nutritional intake and environmental impact can be evaluated using carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from agricultural production based on life cycle assessment (LCA). The objective of this study was to estimate the CO2 equivalent (eq) emissions from the traditional Cambodian diet using LCA, starting at each agricultural production phase. A one-year food consumption scenario with the traditional diet was established. Five breakfast (BF1–5) and seven lunch and dinner (LD1–7) food sets were consumed at the same rate and compared using LCA. The results showed that BF1 and LD2 had the lowest and highest emissions (0.3 Mt CO2 eq/yr and 1.2 Mt CO2 eq/yr, respectively). The food calories, minerals, and vitamins met the recommended dietary allowance. The country’s existing food production system generates CO2 emissions of 9.7 Mt CO2 eq/yr, with the proposed system reducing these by 28.9% to 6.9 Mt CO2 eq/yr. The change in each food item could decrease emissions depending on the type and quantity of the food set, especially meat and milk consumption.

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FOREIGN DIRECT INVESMENT OUTFLOWS AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION: HIDDEN COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY

IEDSR Association ◽

10.46872/pj.235 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 6 (11) ◽

pp. 165-182

Author(s):

Ahmet Emrah TAYYAR

Keyword(s):

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Foreign Direct Investment ◽

Environmental Pollution ◽

Environmental Quality ◽

Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽

Direct Investment ◽

Causality Relationship ◽

Cointegration Relationship

The relationship between foreign direct investment, which is a type of cross-border and long-term investment, and environmental quality is a current issue that is heavily debated. Foreign direct invesments can ensure economic growth and development of countries, while also causing a change in environmental quality. In the research conducted, it is seen that changes in carbon dioxide emissions with foreign direct capital inflows are mainly investigated from the point of view of the host countries. However, foreign direct invesment outflows may have an impact on the environmental quality of the home country. Because foreign direct invesment outflows can enable the transfer of more environmentally friendly techonogies to the country and strengthen management skills. The impact of foreign direct investment outflows on the home country's environmental pollution is shaped by many factors (scale, technique, and composition effects). In addition to these effects, it is necessary to pay attention to the regional and sectoral distribution of capital outflows. The main aim of this study is to examine the links between Turkey's foreign direct invesment outflows and carbon dioxide emissions for the period 1990-2018. For this reason, a unit root test was applied to variables whose natural logarithm was taken. Tests showed that all series are stable of the same degree. Engle&Granger(1987) and Granger&Yoon(2002) tests were used to determine the cointegration relationship between variables. The crouching error correction model(CECM) was applied to determine the causality relationship. According to the results of the analysis; i) In terms of the Engle&Granger(1987) test, there was no long-term relationship between variables. ii) According to the Granger&Yoon(2002) test, it was determined that there is a bidirectional hidden cointegration relationship between the positive shocks of carbon dioxide emissions and negative shocks of foreign direct invesment outflows. iii) There is a bidirectional asymmetric causality relationship between the positive shocks of carbon dioxide emissions and the negative shocks of foreign direct invesment outflows. iv) It is observed that 1% negative shocks in foreign direct invesment outflows reduce positive shocks in carbon dioxide emissions by 0,26%. As a result, since negative situations in foreign direct invesment outflows have an effect on improving the quality of the environment, the environmental dimension should be taken into account in the policies to be made.

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The travel-related carbon dioxide emissions of atmospheric researchers

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-8-7373-2008 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 7373-7389 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

A. Stohl

Keyword(s):

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Co2 Emissions ◽

Information Exchange ◽

Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Global Climate ◽

Air Travel ◽

Ozone Production ◽

Per Capita ◽

Carbon Dioxide Co2

Abstract. Most atmospheric scientists agree that greenhouse gas emissions have already caused significant changes to the global climate system and that these changes will accelerate in the near future. At the same time, atmospheric scientists who – like other scientists – rely on international collaboration and information exchange travel a lot and, thereby, cause substantial emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). In this paper, the CO2 emissions of the employees working at an atmospheric research institute (the Norwegian Institute for Air Research, NILU) caused by all types of business travel (conference visits, workshops, field campaigns, instrument maintainance, etc.) were calculated for the years 2005–2007. It is estimated that more than 90% of the emissions were caused by air travel, 3% by ground travel and 5% by hotel usage. The travel-related annual emissions were between 1.9 and 2.4 t CO2 per employee or between 3.9 and 5.5 t CO2 per scientist. For comparison, the total annual per capita CO2 emissions are 4.5 t worldwide, 1.2 t for India, 3.8 t for China, 5.9 t for Sweden and 19.1 t for Norway. The travel-related CO2 emissions of a NILU scientist, occurring in 24 days of a year on average, exceed the global average annual per capita emission. Norway's per-capita CO2 emissions are among the highest in the world, mostly because of the emissions from the oil industry. If the emissions per NILU scientist derived in this paper are taken as representative for the average Norwegian researcher, travel by Norwegian scientists would nevertheless account for a substantial 0.2% of Norway's total CO2 emissions. Since most of the travel-related emissions are due to air travel, water vapor emissions, ozone production and contrail formation further increase the relative importance of NILU's travel in terms of radiative forcing.

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Social Impacts Due to Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions. Evidence From Sub-Sahara African Countries (SSA) Compared to Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN).

10.21203/rs.3.rs-177911/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jean Baptiste Aboyitungiye ◽

Suryanto Suryanto ◽

Evi Gravitiani

Keyword(s):

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Co2 Emissions ◽

Carbon Emissions ◽

Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽

Explanatory Power ◽

Value Added ◽

Southeast Asian ◽

Asian Countries ◽

Asean Countries ◽

Southeast Asian Countries

Abstract The recent climatic phenomena observed in developing countries since the 2000s have raised concerns, fears, and debates within the international community and economists. Human activities are largely responsible for atmospheric warming through their emissions of CO2 and polluting substances with dramatic consequences and numerous losses of human life in some countries. Using panel data covering the 2000-2016 period, this study investigated the social vulnerability due to the CO2 emissions through an empirical study of CO2’s determinants in selected countries of sub-Sahara African and Southeast Asian countries. The STIRPAT model gave out the result that; explanatories causes of carbon dioxide emissions are different in the two regions: the agriculture-forestry and fishing value-added, and human development index have a strong explanatory power on CO2 emissions in the ASEAN countries, the per-capita domestic product has a positive and significant influence on carbon emissions in the SSA countries, ceteris paribus, but was statistically insignificant in the ASEAN countries. The growing population decreases carbon emissions in the SSA selected countries while is not statically significant in the ASEAN countries. There is therefore a kind of double penalty: those who suffer, and will suffer the most from the impacts of climate change due to CO2 emissions, are those who contribute the least to the problem. These results provide insight into future strategies for the mitigation of climatic hazards already present in some places and potential for others which will be felt on different scales across the regions. Some of the inevitable redistributive effects of those risks can be corrected by providing financial support to the poorest populations hardest hit by natural disasters.

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Simplified Method for Defining 2-Dimensional Design Failure Curve of Marine Silty Sand under Dynamic Loading

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering ◽

10.3390/jmse8010051 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 51

Author(s):

Su-Won Son ◽

Jong-Chan Yoon ◽

Jin-Man Kim

Keyword(s):

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Relative Density ◽

Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽

Power Plants ◽

Confining Pressure ◽

Silty Sand ◽

Wave Loads ◽

Failure Curve ◽

Drawing Technique

Global warming is becoming worse owing to carbon dioxide emissions around the world, and eco-friendly energy for reducing carbon dioxide emissions is gaining importance. Wind power plants are the most representative of the environmentally friendly energy power plants built in the ocean. The fatigue loading and long-term dynamic behavior of offshore soils are important considerations in the construction of structures such as wind turbines in the ocean as they are subject to long-term loads such as wind and wave loads. A design graph presents the short- and long-term behaviors of soil. Several laboratory tests are typically conducted to create design graphs. In this study, a cyclic simple shear test conducted at various confining pressures and relative densities is presented in design graphs. The authors analyzed the sensitivity of the relative density and the confining pressure, and proposed a drawing technique to easily create two-dimensional design graphs. The authors found that the effect of the relative density on the design failure curve was higher compared with that of the confining pressure. The elliptic equation graph achieved the best match to the design failure curve, and the design failure curve drawing technique was summarized in five stages. In addition, the normalized cyclic stress ratio graph to distinguish safety or failure was presented.

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The development of unimolecular conjugated polymeric micelles for the highly selective detection and recovery of gold from electronic waste

New Journal of Chemistry ◽

10.1039/c9nj02077b ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 43 (30) ◽

pp. 11811-11815 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Jilin Liu ◽

Ting Yang ◽

Zhiru Hu ◽

Guodong Feng

Keyword(s):

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Sustainable Development ◽

Development Strategy ◽

Conjugated Polymer ◽

Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽

Polymeric Micelles ◽

Electronic Waste ◽

Selective Detection

Gold recycling is a sustainable development strategy that will save a large amount of carbon dioxide emissions. In this work, we have developed a conjugated polymer, that can not only detect Au content in e-waste but also extract Au from e-waste.

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APLIKASI ERROR CORRECTION MECHANISM DALAM ANALISIS DAMPAK PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI, KONSUMSI ENERGI DAN PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL TERHADAP EMISI CO2 DI INDONESIA

MEDIA STATISTIKA ◽

10.14710/medstat.13.1.104-115 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 104-115

Author(s):

Fitri Kartiasih ◽

Adi Setiawan

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Economic Development ◽

International Trade ◽

Error Correction ◽

Co2 Emissions ◽

Energy Use ◽

Kuznets Curve ◽

Ekc Hypothesis ◽

Economic Activities ◽

Error Correction Mechanism

Economic development is an effort to improve people's lives. However, economic development has negative externalities. Emissions generated from economic activities can pollute the environment. This study purpose to determine the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions based on the Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and analyze the influence of energy use, economic growth and international trade on CO2 emissions in Indonesia in the period 1977-2014 using Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) analysis. The results showed that the EKC hypothesis does not apply in Indonesia, meaning that economic development carried out during the research period still pursues increased income without regard to environmental quality so that increased per capita income is accompanied by increase in CO2 emissions. Based on econometric analysis of ECM, it shows that the variables of energy use, economic growth and international trade have a statistically significant effect on CO2 emissions in Indonesia in the long run. In the short term, economic growth, and error correction terms have a statistically significant effect while the variables of energy consumption and international trade do not have a statistical effect on CO2 emissions in Indonesia.

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