The Impacts of Water Cycle Components on Streamflow in a Changing Climate of Korea: Historical and Future Trends

This paper investigates the historical and future trends in water balance components and their impacts on streamflow. The trend analyses were applied to the daily climatic and hydrologic variables from 109 subbasins in Korea during the historical period and future period obtained by a multimodel ensemble of 13 global circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). A calibrated hydrologic model, the precipitation-streamflow modeling system (PRMS) model, was applied to obtain hydrologic data. The results revealed apparent trends in streamflow, with increases in spring and decreases in the other seasons during the historical period. The reduction (or increase) in the amount of streamflow was counterbalanced by the reduction (or increase) in precipitation, groundwater, and soil moisture, which was mainly impacted by the increase (or reduction) in actual evapotranspiration. However, opposite trends are projected for the future period for streamflow and water cycle components, in which spring and winter are projected to have increasing trends mostly counterbalanced by the decreasing trends in precipitation and groundwater. The reasons for the reduction in streamflow include elevated evapotranspiration compared to precipitation, reduced soil moisture, and a significant decrease in groundwater recharge. In addition, the results of the seasonal variability among basins revealed higher variability in summer for the historical period and in winter for the future period, with maximum variability in the Sumjin River basin, indicating that streamflow fluctuated more strongly in the Sumjin River basin during the historical and future periods.

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Multi-site calibration and validation of SWAT with satellite-based evapotranspiration in a data-sparse catchment in southwestern Nigeria

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-23-1113-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 23 (2) ◽

pp. 1113-1144 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Abolanle E. Odusanya ◽

Bano Mehdi ◽

Christoph Schürz ◽

Adebayo O. Oke ◽

Olufiropo S. Awokola ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

River Basin ◽

Model Calibration ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Swat Model ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Southwestern Nigeria ◽

Calibration And Validation

Abstract. The main objective of this study was to calibrate and validate the eco-hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with satellite-based actual evapotranspiration (AET) data from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM_v3.0a) and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Global Evaporation (MOD16) for the Ogun River Basin (20 292 km2) located in southwestern Nigeria. Three potential evapotranspiration (PET) equations (Hargreaves, Priestley–Taylor and Penman–Monteith) were used for the SWAT simulation of AET. The reference simulations were the three AET variables simulated with SWAT before model calibration took place. The sequential uncertainty fitting technique (SUFI-2) was used for the SWAT model sensitivity analysis, calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis. The GLEAM_v3.0a and MOD16 products were subsequently used to calibrate the three SWAT-simulated AET variables, thereby obtaining six calibrations–validations at a monthly timescale. The model performance for the three SWAT model runs was evaluated for each of the 53 subbasins against the GLEAM_v3.0a and MOD16 products, which enabled the best model run with the highest-performing satellite-based AET product to be chosen. A verification of the simulated AET variable was carried out by (i) comparing the simulated AET of the calibrated model to GLEAM_v3.0b AET, which is a product that has different forcing data than the version of GLEAM used for the calibration, and (ii) assessing the long-term average annual and average monthly water balances at the outlet of the watershed. Overall, the SWAT model, composed of the Hargreaves PET equation and calibrated using the GLEAM_v3.0a data (GS1), performed well for the simulation of AET and provided a good level of confidence for using the SWAT model as a decision support tool. The 95 % uncertainty of the SWAT-simulated variable bracketed most of the satellite-based AET data in each subbasin. A validation of the simulated soil moisture dynamics for GS1 was carried out using satellite-retrieved soil moisture data, which revealed good agreement. The SWAT model (GS1) also captured the seasonal variability of the water balance components at the outlet of the watershed. This study demonstrated the potential to use remotely sensed evapotranspiration data for hydrological model calibration and validation in a sparsely gauged large river basin with reasonable accuracy. The novelty of the study is the use of these freely available satellite-derived AET datasets to effectively calibrate and validate an eco-hydrological model for a data-scarce catchment.

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Variations of Drought Tendency, Frequency, and Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate Change under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios in Huai River Basin, China

Water ◽

10.3390/w11102174 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 2174 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Jingcai Wang ◽

Hui Lin ◽

Jinbai Huang ◽

Chenjuan Jiang ◽

Yangyang Xie ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Eastern China ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

Huai River Basin ◽

Huai River ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Huai River Basin (HRB) is an important food and industrial production area and a frequently drought-affected basin in eastern China. It is necessary to consider the future drought development for reducing the impact of drought disasters. Three global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), such as CNRM-CM5 (CNR), HadGEM2-ES (Had) and MIROC5 (MIR), were used to assessment the future drought conditions under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios, namely, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), statistical method, Mann-Kendall test, and run theory were carried out to study the variations of drought tendency, frequency, and characteristics and their responses to climate change. The research showed that the three CMIP5 models differ in describing the future seasonal and annual variations of precipitation and temperature in the basin and thus lead to the differences in describing drought trends, frequency, and drought characteristics, such as drought severity, drought duration, and drought intensity. However, the drought trend, frequency, and characteristics in the future are more serious than the history. The drought frequency and characteristics tend to be strengthened under the scenario of high concentration of RCP8.5, and the drought trend is larger than that of low concentration of RCP4.5. The lower precipitation and the higher temperature are the main factors affecting the occurrence of drought. All three CMIP5 models show that precipitation would increase in the future, but it could not offset the evapotranspiration loss caused by significant temperature rise. The serious risk of drought in the future is still higher. Considering the uncertainty of climate models for simulation and prediction, attention should be paid to distinguish the effects of different models in the future drought assessment.

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Appropriateness of Potential Evapotranspiration Models for Climate Change Impact Analysis in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos10080453 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (8) ◽

pp. 453 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Pan ◽

Xu ◽

Xuan ◽

Gu ◽

Bai

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Impact Analysis ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Historical Period ◽

Yarlung Zangbo River ◽

The Future ◽

Change Impact

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important element in the water and energy cycle. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is an important measurement of ET. Its accuracy has significant influence on agricultural water management, irrigation planning, and hydrological modelling. However, whether current PET models are applicable under climate change or not, is still a question. In this study, five frequently used PET models were chosen, including one combination model (the FAO Penman-Monteith model, FAO-PM), two temperature-based models (the Blaney-Criddle and the Hargreaves models) and two radiation-based models (the Makkink and the Priestley-Taylor models), to estimate their appropriateness in the historical and future periods under climate change impact on the Yarlung Zangbo river basin, China. Bias correction methods were not only applied to the temperature output of Global Climate Models (GCMs), but also for radiation, humidity, and wind speed. It was demonstrated that the results from the Blaney-Criddle and Makkink models provided better agreement with the PET obtained by the FAO-PM model in the historical period. In the future period, monthly PET estimated by all five models show positive trends. The changes of PET under RCP8.5 are much higher than under RCP2.6. The radiation-based models show better appropriateness than the temperature-based models in the future, as the root mean square error (RMSE) value of the former models is almost half of the latter models. The radiation-based models are recommended for use to estimate PET under climate change in the Yarlung Zangbo river basin.

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Characterizing Hydrological Drought and Water Scarcity Changes in the Future: A Case Study in the Jinghe River Basin of China

Water ◽

10.3390/w12061605 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 1605

Author(s):

Chaoxing Sun ◽

Xiong Zhou

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Water Scarcity ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Historical Period ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

The Future ◽

Jinghe River Basin ◽

Jinghe River

The assessment of future climate changes on drought and water scarcity is extremely important for water resources management. A modeling system is developed to study the potential status of hydrological drought and water scarcity in the future, and this modeling system is applied to the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) of China. Driven by high-resolution climate projections from the Regional Climate Modeling System (RegCM), the Variable Infiltration Capacity model is employed to produce future streamflow projections (2020–2099) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The copula-based method is applied to identify the correlation between drought variables (i.e., duration and severity), and to further quantify their joint risks. Based on a variety of hypothetical water use scenarios in the future, the water scarcity conditions including extreme cases are estimated through the Water Exploitation Index Plus (WEI+) indicator. The results indicate that the joint risks of drought variables at different return periods would decrease. In detail, the severity of future drought events would become less serious under different RCP scenarios when compared with that in the historical period. However, considering the increase in water consumption in the future, the water scarcity in JRB may not be alleviated in the future, and thus drought assessment alone may underestimate the severity of future water shortage. The results obtained from the modeling system can help policy makers to develop reasonable future water-saving planning schemes, as well as drought mitigation measures.

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Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran)

Applied Water Science ◽

10.1007/s13201-021-01494-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

Author(s):

Morteza Lotfirad ◽

Arash Adib ◽

Jaber Salehpoor ◽

Afshin Ashrafzadeh ◽

Ozgur Kisi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Baseline Period ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

Downward Trend ◽

Future Period ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Future ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

The Impact

AbstractThis study evaluates the impact of climate change (CC) on runoff and hydrological drought trends in the Hablehroud river basin in central Iran. We used a daily time series of minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), and precipitation (PCP) for the baseline period (1982–2005) analysis. For future projections, we used the output of 23 CMIP5 GCMs and two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; then, PCP, Tmin, and Tmax were projected in the future period (2025–2048). The GCMs were weighed based on the K-nearest neighbors algorithm. The results indicated a rising temperature in all months and increasing PCP in most months throughout the Hablehroud river basin's areas for the future period. The highest increase in the Tmin and Tmax in the south of the river basin under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively, was 1.87 °C and 1.80 °C. Furthermore, the highest reduction in the PCP was 54.88% in August under the RCP 4.5 scenario. The river flow was simulated by the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model. The annual runoff under the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 declined by 11.44% and 13.13%, respectively. The basin runoff had a downward trend at the baseline period; however, it will have a downward trend in the RCP 4.5 scenario and an upward trend in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the future period. This study also analyzed drought by calculating the streamflow drought index for different time scales. Overall, the Hablehroud river basin will face short-term and medium-term hydrological drought in the future period.

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Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Flows Under IPCC RCP Scenarios in the Mountainous Kaidu Watershed, Tarim River Basin

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12052090 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (5) ◽

pp. 2090 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yue Huang ◽

Yonggang Ma ◽

Tie Liu ◽

Min Luo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Historical Period ◽

Tarim River Basin ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

Gev Distribution ◽

Extreme Flows ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

The Future

In the 21st century, heavier rainfall events and warmer temperatures in mountainous regions have significant impacts on hydrological processes and the occurrence of flood/drought extremes. Long-term modeling and peak flow detection of streamflow series are crucial in understanding the behavior of flood and drought. This study was conducted to analyze the impacts of future climate change on extreme flows in the Kaidu River Basin, northwestern China. The soil water assessment tool (SWAT) was used for hydrological modeling. The projected future precipitation and temperature under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were downscaled and used to drive the validated SWAT model. A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was employed to assess the probability distribution of flood events. The modeling results showed that the simulated discharge well matched the observed ones both in the calibration and validation periods. Comparing with the historical period, the ensemble with 15 general circulation models (GCMs) showed that the annual precipitation will increase by 7.9–16.1% in the future, and extreme precipitation events will increase in winter months. Future temperature will increase from 0.42 °C/10 a to 0.70 °C/10 a. However, with respect to the hydrological response to climate change, annual mean runoff will decrease by 21.5–40.0% under the mean conditions of the four RCP scenarios. A reduction in streamflow will occur in winter, while significantly increased discharge will occur from April to May. In addition, designed floods for return periods of five, 10 and 20 years in the future, as predicted by the GEV distribution, will decrease by 3–20% over the entire Kaidu watershed compared to those in the historical period. The results will be used to help local water resource management with hazard warning and flood control.

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How useful are CORDEX products for the assessment of future agricultural drought propensity across the Indian subcontinent?

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-15885 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Prabal Das ◽

Kironmala Chanda ◽

Rajib Maity

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Water Resources ◽

Indian Subcontinent ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Agricultural Drought ◽

Historical Period ◽

Drought Management ◽

Future Evolution ◽

Failure State ◽

The Future

AbstractThis study aims to evaluate the future evolution of agricultural drought propensity across the Indian subcontinent through Drought Management Index (DMI), a probabilistic measure based on the concept of Reliability-Resilience-Vulnerability (RRV) of soil moisture series at a location/region (Chanda et al., 2014; Chanda and Maity, 2017). In this study, monthly gridded soil moisture products from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework are used after suitable bias correction, if needed. In the realm of RRV analysis, the fall of soil moisture below a threshold (e.g., Permanent Wilting Point, PWP) is considered as the &#8216;failure state&#8217;. The joint distribution of resilience (the ability of the soil moisture system to recover from a failure state) and vulnerability (severity of the deficit in soil moisture during a failure state) of soil moisture series is modelled through copulas (Nelsen, 2006; Maity, 2018) to develop the DMI.&#160; The results of this study help to assess the evolution of agricultural drought propensity, in terms of DMI, in the near (2011-2040), intermediate (2041-2070) and far future (2071-2099). The findings from multiple emission pathways, designated as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), are compared against each other during the future period and also against the historical period. As an outcome of the study, specific regions across the Indian mainland are identified that need immediate attention for managing sustainable agricultural and allied activities in future.Keywords: Drought Management Index (DMI), soil moisture, future drought propensity, Reliability-Resilience-Vulnerability (RRV), CORDEX&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;References Chanda, K., Maity, R., Sharma, A., and Mehrotra, R. (2014). Spatiotemporal variation of long-term drought propensity through reliability-resilience-vulnerability based Drought Management Index, Water Resources Research, 50(10), 7662-7676.Chanda, K., and Maity, R. (2017). Assessment of Trend in Global Drought Propensity in the Twenty-First Century Using Drought Management Index, Water Resources Management, 31(4), 1209-1225.Maity, R. (2018). Statistical Methods in Hydrology and Hydroclimatology. Springer.Nelsen, R. B. (2007). An introduction to copulas. Springer Science & Business Media.

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Streamflow Changes in the Duero River Basin using an Ensemble of Euro-CORDEX Projections

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21054 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Patricio Yeste ◽

Juan José Rosa-Cánovas ◽

Emilio Romero-Jiménez ◽

Matilde García-Valdecasas-Ojeda ◽

Sonia Raquel Gámiz-Fortis ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Policy ◽

Global Climate ◽

Historical Period ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Infiltration Capacity ◽

Future Period ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

Vic Model

Climate change has lead to a generalized decrease of precipitation and an increase of temperature in the Iberian Peninsula during the last decades. These changes will be more intense over the course of the 21th century according to global climate projections. As a consequence, water resources are expected to decrease, particularly in the Duero River Basin.This study is focused on the hydrological response of the Duero River Basin to the climate change. For this end, firstly, the implementation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model in this Basin has been carried out. The VIC model has been calibrated for the period 2000-2009 with a dataset of daily precipitation, temperature and streamflow. Precipitation and temperature data are extracted from SPREAD/STEAD, a dataset that covers the Peninsular Spain at 0.05&#186; of spatial resolution. Streamflow data are provided by the Spanish Center for Public Work Experimentation and Study (CEDEX, Centro de Estudios y Experimentaci&#243;n de ObrasP&#250;blicas). Subsequently, the VIC model has been validated for the period 2009-2011in order to verify that the model outputs fit well with the observational data.After the validation of the VIC model for present climate, secondly, the impacts of climate change in the Duero River Basin have been analyzed by developing several future simulations using an ensemble of 18 members from the Euro-CORDEX database and three study periods: 1975-2005 as the historical period; 2020-2050 as the short-term future period, and 2070-2100 as the long-term future period. The Euro-CORDEX simulations for the two future periods are driven under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.The first results of this work show that the VIC model outputs are in good agreement with the observed streamflow, for both the calibration and validation periods. In the context of climate change, a generalized decrease of the streamflow is expected in the Duero River Basin. The results from this study could be of interest for water policy makers and practitioners in the next decades.Keywords: Duero River Basin, VIC model, climate change, streamflow, projections.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: All the simulations were conducted in the ALHAMBRA cluster (http://alhambra.ugr.es/) of the University of Granada. This work was partially funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness projects CGL2013-48539-R and CGL2017-89836-390-R, with additional support from the European Community Funds (FEDER). The first author was supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport of Spain (FPU grant FPU17/02098).

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Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2013.072 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 302-316

Author(s):

Qiuan Zhu ◽

Hong Jiang ◽

Changhui Peng ◽

Jinxun Liu ◽

Xiuqin Fang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Temporal Variation ◽

Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽

Historical Period ◽

Precipitation Pattern ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Emission Scenarios ◽

Future Period ◽

Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ◽

The Future

The spatial and temporal variation and uncertainty of precipitation and runoff in China were compared and evaluated between historical and future periods under different climate change scenarios. The precipitation pattern is derived from observed and future projected precipitation data for historical and future periods, respectively. The runoff is derived from simulation results in historical and future periods using a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) forced with historical observed and global climate models (GCMs) future projected climate data, respectively. One GCM (CGCM3.1) under two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and SRES B1) was used for the future period simulations. The results indicated high uncertainties and variations in climate change effects on hydrological processes in China: precipitation and runoff showed a significant increasing trend in the future period but a decreasing trend in the historical period at the national level; the temporal variation and uncertainty of projected precipitation and runoff in the future period were predicted to be higher than those in the historical period; the levels of precipitation and runoff in the future period were higher than those in the historical period. The change in trends of precipitation and runoff are highly affected by different climate change scenarios. GCM structure and emission scenarios should be the major sources of uncertainty.

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The Impacts of Climate Change on Maximum Daily Discharge in the Payab Jamash Watershed, Iran

Open Geosciences ◽

10.1515/geo-2019-0080 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 1035-1045

Author(s):

Farzad Parandin ◽

Asadollah Khoorani ◽

Ommolbanin Bazrafshan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Climate Models ◽

River Flow ◽

Flow Simulation ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Historical Period ◽

Future Period ◽

The Future ◽

Daily Discharge

Abstract One of the most crucial consequences of climate change involves the alteration of the hydrologic cycle and river flow regime of watersheds. This study was an endeavor to investigate the contributions of climate change to maximum daily discharge (MDD). To this end, the MDD simulation was carried out through implementing the IHACRES precipitation-runoff model in the Payyab Jamash watershed for the 21st century (2016-2100). Subsequently, the observed precipitation and temperature data of the weather stations (1980-2011) as well as 4 multi-model outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the maximum and minimum Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (2016-2100) were utilized. In order to downscale the output of GCMs, Bias Correction (BC) statistical method was applied. The projections for the 21st century indicated a reduction in Maximum Daily Precipitation (MDP) in comparison with the historic period in the study area. The average projected MDP for the future period was 9 mm/day and 5 mm/ day under 2.6 and 8.5 RCPs (4.6% and 2.6% decrease compared with the historical period), respectively. Moreover, the temperature increased in Jamash Watershed based on 2.6 and 8.5 RCPs by 1∘C and 2∘C(3.7% and 7.4% increase compared with the historical period), respectively. The findings of flow simulation for the future period indicated a decrease in MDD due to the diminished MDP in the study area. The amount of this decrease under RCP8.5 was not remarkable (0.75 m3/s), whereas its value for RCP2.6 was calculated as 40m3/s (respectively, 0.11% and 5.88% decrease compared with the historical period).

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