scholarly journals Assessing the Effectiveness of Mitigation Strategies for Flood Risk Reduction in the Segamat River Basin, Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3286
Author(s):  
Yuk San Liew ◽  
Safari Mat Desa ◽  
Md. Nasir Md. Noh ◽  
Mou Leong Tan ◽  
Nor Azazi Zakaria ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Rainwater Harvesting ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Tropical Region ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Detention Ponds ◽  
River Modeling

Flooding is a frequent, naturally recurring phenomenon worldwide that can become disastrous if not addressed accordingly. This paper aims to evaluate the impacts of land use change and climate change on flooding in the Segamat River Basin, Johor, Malaysia, with 1D–2D hydrodynamic river modeling, using InfoWorks Integrated Catchment Modeling (ICM). The study involved the development of flood maps for four different scenarios: (1) future land use in 2030; (2) the impacts of climate change; (3) three mitigation strategies comprising detention ponds, rainwater harvesting systems (RWHSs), and permeable pavers; and (4) a combination of these three mitigation strategies. The obtained results show increases in the flood peaks under both the land use change and climate change scenarios. With the anticipated increase in development activities within the vicinity up to 2030, the overall impact of urbanization on the extent of flooding would be rather moderate, as the upper and middle parts of the basin would still be dominated by forests and agricultural activities (approximately 81.13%). In contrast, the potential flood-inundated area is expected to increase from 12.25% to 16.64% under storms of 10-, 50-, 100-, and 1000-year average recurrence intervals (ARI). Interestingly, the simulation results suggest that only the detention pond mitigation strategy has a considerable impact on reducing floods, while the other two mitigation strategies have less flood reduction advantages for this agricultural-based rural basin located in a tropical region.

scholarly journals Land-use change may exacerbate climate change impacts on water resources in the Ganges basin

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-33
Author(s):  
Gina Tsarouchi ◽  
Wouter Buytaert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Northern India

Quantifying how land-use change and climate change affect water resources is a challenge in hydrological science. The Upper Ganges (UG) river basin in northern India experiences monsoon flooding almost every year. Studies have shown evidence of strong coupling between the land surface (soil moisture) and atmosphere (precipitation) in northern India, which means that regional climate variations and changes in land use/cover could influence the temporal dynamics of land-atmosphere interactions. <br><br> This work aims to quantify how future projections of land-use and climate change are affecting the hydrological response of the UG river basin. Two different sets of modelling experiments were run using the JULES Land Surface Model and covering the period 2000&amp;ndash;2035: In the first set, climate change is taken into account, as JULES was driven by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) outputs of 21 models, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 &amp; RCP8.5), whilst land use was kept constant at year 2010. In the second set, both climate change and land-use change were taken into consideration, as apart from the CMIP5 model outputs, JULES was also forced with a time-series of 15 future land-use scenarios, based on Landsat satellite imagery and Markov chain simulation. Variations in hydrological variables (stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) are calculated during the simulation period. <br><br> Significant changes in the near-future (years 2030&amp;ndash;2035) hydrologic fluxes arise under future land cover and climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in high extremes of flow: the multi-model mean of the 95th percentile of streamflow [Q<sub>5</sub>] is projected to increase by 63&amp;thinsp;% under the combined land-use and climate change high emissions scenario [RCP8.5]. The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiment. <br><br> Results are further presented in a water resources context, aiming to address potential implications of climate change from a water-demand perspective, highlighting that that demand thresholds in the UG region are projected to be exceeded in the future winter months (Dec&amp;ndash;Feb).

scholarly journals Quantification of climate change and land cover/use transition impacts on runoff variations in the upper Hailar Basin, NE China

2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 976-993
Author(s):  
Yuhui Yan ◽  
Baolin Xue ◽  
Yinglan A ◽  
Wenchao Sun ◽  
Hanwen Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Ne China ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Hailar Basin ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Quantification of runoff change is vital for water resources management, especially in arid or semiarid areas. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) distributed hydrological model to simulate runoff in the upper reaches of the Hailar Basin (NE China) and to analyze quantitatively the impacts of climate change and land-use change on runoff by setting different scenarios. Two periods, i.e., the reference period (before 1988) and the interference period (after 1988), were identified based on long-term runoff datasets. In comparison with the reference period, the contribution rates of both climate change and land-use change to runoff change in the Hailar Basin during the interference period were 83.58% and 16.42%, respectively. The simulation analysis of climate change scenarios with differential precipitation and temperature changes suggested that runoff changes are correlated positively with precipitation change and that the impact of precipitation change on runoff is stronger than that of temperature. Under different economic development scenarios adopted, land use was predicted to have a considerable impact on runoff. The expansion of forests within the basin might induce decreased runoff owing to enhanced evapotranspiration.

Modelling the impacts of climate change and land-use change on the hydrology of Vietnam’s river basins

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Moschini ◽  
Iacopo Federico Ferrario ◽  
Barbara Hofmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Hydrological Fluxes

&lt;p&gt;Quantifying how land-use change affects hydrological components is a challenge in hydrological science. It is not yet clear how changes in land use relate to runoff extremes and why some catchments are more sensitive to land-use change than others. Identifying which areas are hydrologically more sensitive to land-use change can lead to better land-use planning, reduction of the impacts of extreme rainfall events and extended dry periods. In this study we aim to quantify how land-use change and climate change are affecting the hydrological response of &amp;#160;Vietnam&amp;#8217;s basins. Over the past decades the country&amp;#8217;s land use has shifted from forest to agriculture, with very high production of rice, coffee, tea, pepper and sugar cane.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We combine the historical, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change&amp;#8217;s (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios developed for Vietnam, with two different land cover maps (from the years 1992 and 2017). The combined and separate effect of land use and climate change are assessed and the most sensitive to change areas are identified. The Variable infiltration Capacity (VIC) surface water and energy balance model applied here is a grid-based model that calculates evapotranspiration, runoff, base flow, soil moisture and other hydrological fluxes. Surface heterogeneity within VIC is represented by a tiled approach, whereby the surface of each grid-box comprises fractions of the different surface types. For each surface type of the grid-box, the energy and water balances are solved, and a weighted average is calculated from the individual surface fluxes for each grid-box. Hydrological fluxes were compared for each grid cell and basin to analyse the degree of difference between the scenarios.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Significant changes in future hydrologic fluxes arise under both climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in hydrological extremes. The changes in all the examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiments.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 2359-2391 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. D. Keller ◽  
W. T. Baisden ◽  
L. Timar ◽  
B. Mullan ◽  
A. Clark
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Pasture Production ◽  
N Cycle

Abstract. We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification of agricultural activity and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1–2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report also show national increases of 1–2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3 and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasise that CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of decoupled land-use change scenarios: the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re-sampled quickly and cost-effectively for specific land-use change scenarios and future projections.

scholarly journals Combined effects of predicted climate and land use changes on future hydrological droughts in the Luanhe River basin, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xu Chen ◽  
Ruiguang Han ◽  
Yongjie Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Luanhe River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Droughts

Abstract Drought can be impacted by both climate change and land use change in different ways. Thus, in order to predict future drought conditions, hydrological simulations as an ideal means, can be used to account for both projected climate change and projected land use change. In this study, projected climate and land use changes were integrated with the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model to estimate the combined impact of climate and land use projections on hydrological droughts in the Luanhe River basin. We presented that the measured runoff and the remote sensing inversion of soil water content were simultaneously used to validate the model to ensure the reliability of model parameters. Following the calibration and validation, the SWAT model was forced with downscaled precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of nine Global Climate Models (GCMs) based on the CMIP5, corresponding to three different representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and 8.5) for three distinct time periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, referred to as early-century, mid-century and late-century, respectively, and the land use predicted by CA-Markov model in the same future periods. Hydrological droughts were quantified using the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). Compared to the baseline scenario (1961–1990), mild drought occurred more frequently during the next three periods (except the 2080s under the RCP2.6 emission scenario). Under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, the probability of severe drought or above occurring in the 2080s increased, the duration prolonged and the severity increased. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the upper central region of the Luanhe river in the 2020s and upper reaches of the Luanhe river in the 2080s, were more likely to suffer extreme drought events. And under the RCP8.5 scenario, the middle and lower Luanhe river in the 2080s, were more likely to suffer these conditions.

scholarly journals Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 3307-3365
Author(s):  
E. D. Keller ◽  
W. T. Baisden ◽  
L. Timar ◽  
B. Mullan ◽  
A. Clark
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Pasture Production ◽  
N Cycle

Abstract. We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1–2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) also show national increases of 1–2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3% and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasize that CO2 fertilisation and N cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of Decoupled Land-Use Change Scenarios (DLUCS): the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re-sampled quickly and cost-effectively for specific land-use change scenarios and future projections.

scholarly journals Land use and climate change impacts on the hydrology of the upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: results of a modeling study to support better resource management

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 2245-2258 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. M. Mango ◽  
A. M. Melesse ◽  
M. E. McClain ◽  
D. Gann ◽  
S. G. Setegn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
East Africa ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Cultural Landscapes ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Resource Managers

Abstract. Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

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