scholarly journals Fragmentation of International Production and Business Cycle Synchronization: New Evidence pre and during Global Financial Crises

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4131
Author(s):  
Norrana Khidil ◽  
Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi ◽  
Zulkefly Abdul Karim
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Financial Openness ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
International Production ◽  
Normal Period ◽  
The World

Understanding the link between the fragmentation of international production (FIP) and business cycle synchronization (BCS) is crucial because it affects the world economic stability and hence hampers the sustainability in world trade, world production, and the world supply chain. Following that, this paper investigates the effects of fragmentation in an international production (FIP) on business cycle synchronization (BCS) amongst 38 countries (29 OECD and nine non-OECD countries) for two different periods; pre-crisis (2003–2007) and during the crisis period (2008–2012). This study uses a dynamic panel system GMM estimation in analyzing the effect of FIP on BSC by controlling other explanatory variables, namely, trade linkages and financial openness. Unlike many previous results, the main findings reveal that FIP positively and significantly affects BCS during a crisis period. However, it shows an insignificant effect during the normal period. In other words, FIP would amplify the synchronization of output downfall during the crisis period. Trade linkages have a negative and significant relationship with BCS in both periods, whereas financial openness has a negative and significant relationship with BCS during the normal period. The study suggests that selective measures have to be undertaken in implementing FIP during the crisis period to reduce the negative impact of BCS. Increasing trade and financial activities, on the other hand, would be beneficial for the countries as they would reduce the negative effect of BCS during the crisis period.

scholarly journals Nexus between China-Pak Business Cycle Synchronization and Human Development in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol Volume 4 (Issue 3) ◽  
pp. 445-468
Author(s):  
Ali Abbas ◽  
Dr. Zahid Pervaiz
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

This study has examined the potential impact of China-Pak business cycle synchronization on human development in Pakistan. Data covered the time span of 1975-2017. Other independent variables include inflation, GDP per capita, external debt and FDI. Results of unit root test showed that all variables were stationary with mixture of level and first difference. F-bounds test confirmed the presence of long run relationship among the variables. ARDL technique was applied to obtain long run coefficients. The study found that FDI and GDP per capita had positive and significant impact on human development while China-Pak business cycle synchronization, inflation and external debt had negative and significant relationship with human development in Pakistan. Results showed the value of error correction term -0.16 with 1 percent level of significance which confirmed the presence of short run equilibrium in the model. All independent variables had significant relationship with human development in the short run. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests showed that parameters of the model were stable. The study suggested that government should focus critically China-Pak business cycle synchronization to uplift human development in Pakistan for which domestic production should be promoted to facilitate domestic producers that might be helpful to improve employment level which finally can raise human development. Control on inflation is significant for the sake of human development. Policy makers should take steps for improvement in GDP per capita and FDI to encourage human development in Pakistan.

Features of vegetable production in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
pp. 22-26
Author(s):  
Т.Н. Сурихина ◽  
Р.А. Мещерякова ◽  
Г.А. Телегина
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Food Products ◽  
Vegetable Production ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
Open Ground

В статье рассмотрены результаты влияния пандемии COVID-19 на экономику и овощеводство России. Вспышка COVID-19 создала дисбаланс в мировой экономике. Введенные странами карантинные меры, предпринимаемые для сглаживания распространения пандемии, негативным образом повлияли на экономическую ситуацию в мире и экономику отдельных стран, в том числе России. Нарушение цепочки поставок товаров привело к росту цен на сырьевые и продовольственные товары, к закрытию предприятий и увольнениям. Введение ограничений на экспорт товаров снизило объемы импорта. В январе 2021 года по сравнению с январем 2020 года снижение импорта в России по продовольственным товарам и сырью для их производства составило 4,2%, по овощам – 11,5%. Цены на ввозимые в страну овощи в 2,5–3,4 раза превышали цены на экспортируемые. Однако потери в овощеводстве из-за пандемии оказались минимальными. Валовой сбор овощей в целом по стране в 2020 году составил 13,8 млн т., что на 1,7% ниже уровня 2019 года. При этом валовые сборы овощей открытого грунта сократились на 3,1%, овощей защищенного грунта – выросли на 6,6%. Возникли трудности с реализацией овощей, так как в кризисный период из-за пандемии COVID-19 спрос на овощи упал на 30%. Кроме того, население переключилось на более дешевые овощи. Правительства различных стран мира для поддержания производителей и потребителей предприняли ряд мер. The results of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on the Russian economy and vegetable growing are considered. The COVID-19 outbreak has created an imbalance in the global economy. The quarantine measures imposed by countries to mitigate the spread of the pandemic, continue to have a negative impact on the economic situation in the world and the economy of individual countries, including Russia. Disruptions in the supply chain of consumer and industrial goods have led to higher prices for raw materials and food products, to business closures and layoffs. The introduction of restrictions on the export of goods has reduced the volume of imports. In January 2021, compared to January 2020, the decrease in imports for food products and raw materials for their production was 4.2%, for vegetables – 11.5%. The prices of imported vegetables were 2.5–3.4 times higher than the prices of exported vegetables. The losses in this area due to the pandemic were minimal. The gross harvest of vegetables in the whole country in 2020 amounted to 13.8 million t, which is 1.7% lower than in 2019. At the same time, the gross harvest of open ground vegetables decreased by 3.1%, and of protected ground vegetables increased by 6.6%. There were difficulties with the sale of vegetables. During the crisis period, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the demand for vegetables fell by 30%. The population switched to cheaper vegetables. To support producers and consumers world countries governments undertook measures.

scholarly journals Using Artificial Neural Networks and SPI Measure Techniques to Forecast the Risk of Drought in Iraq and Its Impact on Environment

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 69
Author(s):  
Renas A.A. Nader ◽  
Aras J.M. Karim ◽  
Mohammad M.F. Hussien
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Water Retention ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Normal Period ◽  
The World ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Severe Shortage

The world suffers from drought, which has a negative impact on human, economic, social, cultural and tourism fields. As science progressed and developed, several ways of reducing drought were found. This phenomenon is also called (aridity and infertility, and water retention), it means a severe shortage of water resources due to low precipitation and low rainfall over a specific normal period time, which are causing heavy losses in agricultural production, and the occurrence of disasters and human calamities such as starvation, and it is forcing some population to emigrate collectively. The artificial neural networks (ANN) and the Standard Rain Index (SPI) were used in the analysis of the rainfall for all Iraqi governorates for the period 1991-2016 monthly. This study shows that the best model of the neural network is [19-3-1] according to AIC to forecast the amount of rainfall, and that the Iraqi provinces over next 10 years are exposed to a different behavior of climate between moderate dry and average humidity, and increase the area of ​​desertification.

Coronavirus diseases and pregnancy: COVID-19,SARS, and MERS

2020 ◽  
pp. 276-289
Author(s):  
Mobina Fathi ◽  
Kimia Vakili ◽  
Niloofar Deravi
Keyword(s):  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Intrauterine Growth Retardation ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
World Health ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Intrauterine Growth ◽  
Exponential Increase ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Respiratory Droplets

Around the end of December 2019, a new beta-coronavirus from Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China began to spread rapidly. The new virus, called SARS-CoV-2, which could be transmitted through respiratory droplets, had a range of mild to severe symptoms, from simple cold in some cases to death in others. The disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 was named COVID-19 by WHO and has so far killed more people than SARS and MERS. Following the widespread global outbreak of COVID-19, with more than 132758 confirmed cases and 4955 deaths worldwide, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic disease in January 2020. Earlier studies on viral pneumonia epidemics has shown that pregnant women are at greater risk than others. During pregnancy, the pregnant woman is more prone to infectious diseases. Research on both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, which are pathologically similar to SARS-CoV-2, has shown that being infected with these viruses during pregnancy increases the risk of maternal death, stillbirth, intrauterine growth retardation and, preterm delivery. With the exponential increase in cases of COVID-19 throughout the world, there is a need to understand the effects of SARS-CoV-2 on the health of pregnant women, through extrapolation of earlier studies that have been conducted on pregnant women infected with SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV. There is an urgent need to understand the chance of vertical transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from mother to fetus and the possibility of the virus crossing the placental barrier. Additionally, since some viral diseases and antiviral drugs may have a negative impact on the mother and fetus, in which case, pregnant women need special attention for the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of COVID-19.

High-tech business in crisis conditions: development trends of large, medium and small enterprises

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 48-58
Author(s):  
Vladislav V. Spitsyn ◽  
Alexander A. Mikhal'chuk ◽  
Anastasia A. Bulykina ◽  
Svetlana N. Popova ◽  
Irina E. Nikulina
Keyword(s):  
Small Businesses ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Service Industries ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Small Enterprises ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Knowledge Intensive ◽  
Crisis Conditions ◽  
Medium And Small Enterprises

Leading world countries view innovative development and high-tech business as an opportunity to overcome economic stagnation and decline in economic growth. One of the modern trends in the analysis of high-tech development is the study of high-tech knowledge-intensive service industries and their development in times of crisis. The purpose of the paper is to identify patterns of development of large, medium and small enterprises in high-tech service industries in Russia during periods of crisis. Economic and economic-mathematical methods of analysis are applied to the formed samples of enterprises. The research period is 2013-2017. The financial indicators of enterprises were adjusted for the level of accumulated inflation in relation to 2013. According to results, large and medium-sized enterprises showed insignificant or weak significant positive dynamics of revenue during all years of the crisis period. The crisis period did not lead to a decrease in the revenue of these groups of enterprises. The acute phase of the crisis (2014-2015) had a pronounced negative impact on the group of small enterprises in all studied industries, but they successfully recovered in 2016-2017 and reached the pre-crisis level of revenue. The total revenue by industries and groups of enterprises in 2017 became higher than in 2013, and its growth rates were significant for many groups of enterprises, which indicates a successful overcoming of the crisis period and signs of growth in high-tech service industries. Our study shows the need for state support for small businesses in high-tech service industries in crisis conditions, and identifies the possibilities of adaptation of enterprises in these industries to an unfavorable external environment. Our results may be useful for the purposes of government stimulation of economic development in the current environment.

The dilemmas of the Israeli reality and the choice of war

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 151
Author(s):  
Bashir Hadi Abdul Razak
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Arab World ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Political Movement ◽  
World Today ◽  
The World ◽  
Arab Israeli Conflict ◽  
Internal And External Factors

The Arab-Israeli conflict is among the longest and most complex conflicts in the world today, a conflict that transcends borders or a difference of influence. It is a struggle for existence in every sense. Since the establishment of Israel in 1948, one of the regional forces whose political movement is determined by the Arab world has become the result of the internal and external factors and changes that affect it. This entity is hostile to the Arabs, Which would have a negative impact on the regional strategic situation.

scholarly journals Asymmetric dynamics between uncertainty and unemployment flows in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Ahmed ◽  
Mark Granberg ◽  
Victor Troster ◽  
Gazi Salah Uddin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Large Uncertainty ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Uncertainty Measures ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThis paper examines how different uncertainty measures affect the unemployment level, inflow, and outflow in the U.S. across all states of the business cycle. We employ linear and nonlinear causality-in-quantile tests to capture a complete picture of the effect of uncertainty on U.S. unemployment. To verify whether there are any common effects across different uncertainty measures, we use monthly data on four uncertainty measures and on U.S. unemployment from January 1997 to August 2018. Our results corroborate the general predictions from a search and matching framework of how uncertainty affects unemployment and its flows. Fluctuations in uncertainty generate increases (upper-quantile changes) in the unemployment level and in the inflow. Conversely, shocks to uncertainty have a negative impact on U.S. unemployment outflow. Therefore, the effect of uncertainty is asymmetric depending on the states (quantiles) of U.S. unemployment and on the adopted unemployment measure. Our findings suggest state-contingent policies to stabilize the unemployment level when large uncertainty shocks occur.

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