scholarly journals CO2 Emissions Forecast and Emissions Peak Analysis in Shanxi Province, China: An Application of the LEAP Model

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 637
Author(s):  
Xin Zou ◽  
Renfeng Wang ◽  
Guohui Hu ◽  
Zhuang Rong ◽  
Jiaxuan Li

Shanxi Province, an important source of coal resources in China, has consumed a large amount of fossil fuels in the past few decades. The CO2 emissions of Shanxi Province have been increasing annually, reaching 541.8 million tons in 2018, 54.6% higher than the national mean. This will have a negative impact on China’s ability to meet its target of peaking CO2 emissions by 2030. To assist China to achieve this target and reduce CO2 emissions in Shanxi Province, this study used the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model to analyze the CO2 emissions and peaks in Shanxi Province from 2019 to 2035 under different scenarios. Furthermore, this study analyzed the time to peak CO2 emissions under different emission reduction measures through a sensitivity analysis. The results show that in the absence of other mitigation policy interventions, CO2 emissions in Shanxi Province will increase annually, reaching 1646.2 million tons by 2035. Furthermore, this study shows that if shares of industrial gross domestic product (GDP) in Shanxi, energy intensity reduction in the industrial and transport sectors compared to the base scenario, thermal power, and relative clean energy consumption reach 25%, 30%, 50%, and 50%, respectively, by 2035, then CO2 emissions of Shanxi would peak at 801.2 million tons in 2029 and GDP per capita would increase to USD 2000 by 2035. Finally, according to the results of this study, we have made some recommendations for emission reduction in Shanxi Province. The limitation of this study was that the implementation cost of the abatement policy was not considered.

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10432
Author(s):  
Qingwei Shi ◽  
Hong Ren ◽  
Weiguang Cai ◽  
Jingxin Gao

The improvement of the energy and carbon emission efficiency of activities in the building sector is the key to China’s realization of the Paris Agreement. We can explore effective emission abatement approaches for the building sector by evaluating the carbon emissions and energy efficiency of construction activities, measuring the emission abatement potential of construction activities across the country and regions, and measuring the marginal abatement cost (MAC) of China and various regions. This study calculates the energy and carbon emissions performance of the building sector of 30 provinces and regions in China from 2005 to 2015, measures the dynamic changes in the energy-saving potential and carbon emission performance of the building sector, conducts relevant verification, and estimates the MAC of the building sector by using the slacks-based measure-directional distance function. The level of energy consumption per unit of the building sector of China has been decreasing yearly, but the energy structure has changed minimally (considering that clean energy is used). The total factor technical efficiency of the building sector of various provinces, cities, and regions is generally low, as verified in the evaluation of the energy-saving and emission abatement potential of the building sector of China. The energy saving and emission abatement of the building sector of China have great potential—that is, in approximately 50% of the total emissions of the building sector of China. In particular, Northeast and North China account for more than 50% of the total energy-saving and emission abatement potential. The study of the CO2 emissions and MAC of the building sector indicates that the larger the CO2 emissions are, the smaller MAC will be. The emission abatement efficiency is proportional to MAC. Based on this research, it can be more equitable and effective in formulating provincial emission reduction policy targets at the national level, and can maximize the contribution of the building sector of various provinces to the national carbon emission reduction.


Carbon pricing initiatives, as well as carbon capture and geologic sequestration (CCS), are tools to offset and reduce the impact of CO2 emissions. The best solution is to not create the CO2 emissions in the first place by switching from fossil fuels to renewable clean energy sources. This can be incentivized through tax breaks, as Norway has done with EVs. DOI can be used to change the public mindset so that they will embrace EVs, as Germany is doing now. Sea level rise solutions include shoreline armoring and beach renourishment, elevation of roadways and sidewalks, managed retreat through purchase of vulnerable land for public use, and avoidance through limiting development in high-risk areas. This chapter gives case examples from U.S.'s 100 Resilient Cities, and UK's Bristol is Open, a programmable city where data on air quality, transportation, health, and needs of elderly residents are integrated into one high-speed centralized network.


2018 ◽  
Vol 45 ◽  
pp. 217-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asima Koshim ◽  
Marat Karatayev ◽  
Michèle L. Clarke ◽  
William Nock

Abstract. Kazakhstan is naturally rich in fossil fuels and its economy is strongly linked to oil and gas exports. Significant coal reserves have led to an energy mix that is dominated by aging and polluting thermal power plants. Yet Kazakhstan comprises mainly grassland steppe where agriculture and livestock pastoralism dominate offering the potential for cleaner, renewable energy production from a range of agricultural and forestry wastes. Here we analyse the spatial distribution and bioenergy generation potential of different feedstocks using an ArcGIS platform and demonstrate a significant opportunity for a range of bioenergy technologies. We recommend a number of policy interventions to enable Kazakhstan to make a transition to cleaner, more accessible and locally generated supply which is also sustainable and provide a waste management solution.


Author(s):  
Parakram Pyakurel ◽  
Filipe Quintal ◽  
James Auger ◽  
Julian Hanna

One method of reducing atmospheric CO2 emissions in the transportation sector is the replacement of conventional fossil fuel-based vehicles with Electric Vehicles (EVs). However, fossil fuels are still the primary source of electricity production in many regions and the utilization of EVs in such regions increases the electricity demand because of battery charging. This results in increased burning of fossil fuels by thermal power plants and therefore can offset savings in CO2 emissions resulting from the adoption of EVs. In this paper, we consider a scenario where all fossil fuel-based conventional vehicles are replaced by EVs and then estimate the net CO2 emission savings resulting from the adoption of EVs in a region where electricity is primarily supplied by thermal plants. Only emissions generated during the operational phase of vehicle use are considered; emissions during the production phase are not considered. The region under consideration is Madeira, Portugal where thermal plants account for 80% of the total electricity produced. Our findings suggest that although EVs have huge potential to save CO2 emissions, a substantial amount of the savings can be offset due to the increased burning of fossil fuels by thermal plants to meet the electrical demand of charging batteries.


SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 215824402110613
Author(s):  
Rafiq Muhammad Aftab ◽  
Liguo Zhang ◽  
Chih-Chun Kung

Development of renewable energy is important to modern society because climate change induced from fossil use has resulted in severe and possibly irreversible environmental impacts such as sea level rise, desertification, diminished land productivity, and increased possibility of extreme events. Therefore, the utilization of renewable and clean energy not only increases regional energy security but also alleviate the environmental risk. In this study, we employ the lifecycle assessment to examine the electricity generation from the use of municipal solid waste in China, and then investigate the emission reduction from this application. Different supply patterns of the wastes are also compared to make the results more robust. The results show that if recycled wastes are fully utilized, approximately 11,107 GWh can be generated, along with a profit of $1.2 billion from energy sales. In this case, the CO2 emission will reduce by 9.7 million metric tons. If the food waste is used in compositing and animal feed, the net power generation and emission reduction are about 8,216 GWh and 7.32 million metric tons, respectively. If additional 30% of recycled wastes are assumed to be utilized in their past use, the power generation, profit, and emission reduction will further decrease to 5,750 GWh, $697 million, and 5.12 metric tons, respectively. The results point out that the utilization of recycled wastes can effectively reduce the reliance on fossil fuels, improve energy security, and increase social welfare. Insights of the results and policy implications are also discussed in detail.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (16) ◽  
pp. 5151
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Komorowska

In recent years, numerous countries have introduced or considered capacity markets as remuneration mechanisms for long-term capacity adequacy. Since adequacy is frequently linked with thermal power generation, there is an ongoing debate as to whether this instrument could impact decarbonisation. In this context, the paper presents a quantitative assessment of the consequences of introducing a capacity market on decarbonisation pathways. The Polish power system is taken as an example due to its heavy dependence on fossil fuels. To this end, a computable model of the Polish power system is developed and applied to the study of two research scenarios. The first scenario presents the power system without introducing a capacity market, while the latter considers the system with a capacity market in place. The analysis shows that the introduction of a capacity market delays the decarbonisation of the power system and has a negative impact on carbon neutrality. Even though coal-fired units are phased out, they are mainly replaced by natural gas. The method and model developed within this study can be applied to countries where a capacity market is being discussed, and fossil fuels continue to play a dominant role.


2013 ◽  
Vol 295-298 ◽  
pp. 2223-2226
Author(s):  
Chuan Lin Huo ◽  
Cheng Huo ◽  
Dao Ming Guan

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a significant strategic climate protection technology, and has become the most possibility and practical significance approach of emission reduction. CCS technology is the means to reduce the amount of CO2 into the atmosphere in the case of no reducing the amount of fossil fuels. China's CO2 emissions are the second in the world and it is difficult to change the current energy consumption in a short time. CO2 emissions will continue to increase with the rapid development of China's economy which will bring the huge CO2 emission reduction pressure. In this paper the CCS technology is introduced and the necessity and feasibility of CCS in China are analysed.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (22) ◽  
pp. 6419 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Chen ◽  
Ling He ◽  
Jiachuan Chen ◽  
Bo Yuan ◽  
Teng Huang ◽  
...  

China has initiated various dedicated policies on clean energy substitution for polluting fossil-fuels since the early 2010s to alleviate severe carbon emissions and environmental pollution and accelerate clean energy transformation. Using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression, we project the potentials of substituting coal and oil with clean energy for different production sectors in China toward the year 2030. Based on the projections, a dynamic multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model, CHINAGEM, is employed to examine: the impacts of future clean energy substitution on China’s energy production, outputs of non-energy sectors, macro-economy, and CO2 emissions. First, we found that most production sectors are projected to replace polluting fossil-fuels with clean energy in their terminal energy consumption in 2017–2030. Second, clean energy substitution enables producing green co-benefits that would enable improvements in energy production structure, reductions in national CO2 emissions, and better real GDP and employment. Third, technological progress in non-fossil-fuel electricity could further benefit China’s clean and low-carbon energy transformation, accelerating the reduction in CO2 emissions and clean energy substitution. Furthermore, the most beneficiary are energy-intensive and high carbon-emission sectors owing to the drop in coal and oil prices, while the most negatively affected are the downstream sectors of electricity. Through research, various tentative improvement policies are recommended, including financial support, renewable electricity development, clean energy utilization technology, and clean coal technologies.


Pomorstvo ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 376-386
Author(s):  
Siniša Vilke ◽  
Frane Tadic ◽  
Ines Ostović ◽  
Borna Debelić

This paper shows the analyses of hydrogen vehicles within urban centres, which have been gaining increasing importance lately. In fact, due to the negative impact of conventional vehicles on human health and environment, the need is imposed for implementation of eco-powered vehicles that also tend to be sustainable in transport. Gradual removal of fossil fuels and the use of alternative road transport technologies are among the primary objectives of most countries. This paper aims to examine the impact of hydrogen technology in urban transport, ie to point out how hydrogen vehicles have affected the satisfaction of customers and users through individual projects. Furthermore, the paper analyses the current situation in the application of hydrogen vehicles in the world, as well as future investments in infrastructure through strategies aimed at boosting higher demand for clean energy.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 13221
Author(s):  
Yujing Liu ◽  
Dongxiao Niu

With the proposed goals of reaching its “carbon peak” by 2030 and becoming “carbon neutral” by 2060, China will comprehensively build a diversified, efficient and clean energy system. The differences in China’s resource endowments have made the development of carbon emission reduction in the thermal power industry uncoordinated in various regions. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the method for measuring thermal power carbon emission efficiency and determine the impact of regional development imbalances on the carbon emission efficiency of thermal power. For this article, we used the stochastic frontier analysis method and selected a variety of influencing factors as technical inefficiency items. After that, we measured the thermal power carbon emission efficiency in 30 provinces and municipalities (autonomous regions) in China in the past 10 years, and it was found that the efficiency was increasing yearly and showed obvious spatial differences. The impact of the clean energy substitution effect on the thermal power carbon emission efficiency cannot be ignored. After performing a coupled and coordinated analysis on the efficiency of thermal carbon emission in various regions and its influencing factors, the three indicators of power consumption intensity, urbanization level and clean energy substitution effect were selected. The weight of the indicator subsystem was determined in view of the estimation of the technical inefficiency. The results of the coupling and coordination analysis show that the degree of coupling and coordination of thermal power carbon emission efficiency is increasing yearly and presents a distribution of “high in the eastern region and low in the western region”. Therefore, all provinces need to vigorously carry out clean replacement work to enhance the coordinated development of carbon emission reduction in the thermal power industry and the level of regional economic development.


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