scholarly journals Will SARS-CoV-2 Become Just Another Seasonal Coronavirus?

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 854
Author(s):  
Alexander B. Beams ◽  
Rebecca Bateman ◽  
Frederick R. Adler
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Population Heterogeneity ◽  
Emerging Pathogens ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
General Mathematical Model ◽  
The Right ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Partial Immunity

The future prevalence and virulence of SARS-CoV-2 is uncertain. Some emerging pathogens become avirulent as populations approach herd immunity. Although not all viruses follow this path, the fact that the seasonal coronaviruses are benign gives some hope. We develop a general mathematical model to predict when the interplay among three factors, correlation of severity in consecutive infections, population heterogeneity in susceptibility due to age, and reduced severity due to partial immunity, will promote avirulence as SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic. Each of these components has the potential to limit severe, high-shedding cases over time under the right circumstances, but in combination they can rapidly reduce the frequency of more severe and infectious manifestation of disease over a wide range of conditions. As more reinfections are captured in data over the next several years, these models will help to test if COVID-19 severity is beginning to attenuate in the ways our model predicts, and to predict the disease.

Legitimacy

2020 ◽  
pp. 87-105
Author(s):  
George E. Mitchell ◽  
Hans Peter Schmitz ◽  
Tosca Bruno-van Vijfeijken
Keyword(s):  
Stakeholder Expectations ◽  
The Past ◽  
New Approaches ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
Governance Transparency ◽  
Over Time

Chapter 5 explores how the foundations for TNGO legitimacy have changed over time, creating imperatives for TNGOs to invest in new capabilities and adopt new practices. In the past, TNGOs derived legitimacy from their espoused principles, representational claims, elite expertise, demonstrated financial stewardship, commitment to charity, and patterns of conformity. More recently, TNGOs themselves have helped to bring about a shift toward new bases for legitimacy that focus on effectiveness, strategy, leadership, governance, transparency, and responsiveness. However, transitioning to the legitimacy practices of the future is complicated by the persistence of an antiquated architecture that still demands that TNGO conform to legacy expectations. Nevertheless, new approaches to enhancing legitimacy provide a wide range of opportunities that invite organizations to proactively align their aspirations with emerging stakeholder expectations.

scholarly journals When is the Adaptable or Multi-Role Ship the Right Answer?

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. E. Moss ◽  
A. C. Kimber
Keyword(s):  
Common Theme ◽  
Lessons Learnt ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Individual Project ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Right ◽  
Naval Architect

The rise of the multi-role ship, often envisaged with modular bolt on capabilities, has been the stable of conferences for most of this decade. Similarly, adaptability is an increasingly common theme in presenting new designs and concepts. However, the question for the naval architect is “do these represent the right solution for a given individual project” or has the concept been overstated as a vision of the future and used as the template which is not quite the panacea that it promises. After several decades involved in a wide range of projects, the authors offer their thoughts on the opportunities and realism of multi-role ships and adaptability. The paper explores some of the lessons learnt in delivering multi-role and modular designs. The underlying themes that are fuelling the interest in multi-role ships along with the typical roles considered are also discussed.

“Disability Grief”: A patient’s allegorical expression of her disability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdorreza Naser Moghadasi
Keyword(s):  
Disease Onset ◽  
Daily Work ◽  
The Past ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Relapsing Remitting ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Central Nervous System ◽  
The Right ◽  
Professional Artist

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune disabling disease of the central nervous system, and can lead to a wide range of symptoms. Although the most common form of MS is relapsing-remitting, most of the patients also will develop disability in the future due to the natural course of the disease.1,2 The disease onset mostly occurs in 27 years of age.3 Therefore, considering the symptoms and complications of the disease, it can virtually affect the whole life of the patient. Unfortunately, there is not any accurate study of the opinions of patients with MS regarding their illness. However, in the daily work of treatment, one of the well-known cases of severe discomfort expressed by patients is the fear of future disability. This issue is aggravated when a person starts to lose abilities. When the patient experiences disability in walking and a decrease in his/her daily activities, thinking about the future becomes one of his/her major concerns. Most patients express these concerns in their visits. However, a patient who has other abilities such as poetry, writing a story, or painting, can more effectively portray concerns. The painting reported here is the allegorical view of a patient about her disability. The patient is a 37-year-old woman who has had MS for 15 years. Her illness started with the right eye optic neuritis. She has had six attacks during this period and, after 9 years, her disease entered the secondary progressive phase. Her symptom in this stage was the weakness of the right lower extremity, which was gradually deteriorating such as difficulty in walking. Now, she is unable to walk without help. This disability has affected all aspects of her life, and has greatly diminished her quality of life. She has been interested in drawing since childhood, and has drawn as a non-professional artist. One of her paintings reported here (Figure 1), according to the patient herself, reflects her perception and grief over her progressive disability. She believes that she should say goodbye to her ability and good days of the past. She painted herself as someone (when she could walk unrestrictedly) moving away along with a balloon

scholarly journals VACCINATION IN THE SYSTEM OF HUMAN RIGHTS AND OBLIGATIONS: IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
Vol 74 (11) ◽  
pp. 2983-2991
Author(s):  
Viktor V. Horodovenko ◽  
Larysa G. Udovyka ◽  
Tatiana О. Shekhovtsova
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Civil Rights ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Right To Health ◽  
Healthcare Sector ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
European Regulatory ◽  
The Right ◽  
Mandatory Vaccination

The aim: To identify the problems and prospects of introducing mandatory vaccination against COVID-19 in the context of respect for human and civil rights and freedoms based on generalization and systematization of foreign experience in implementing such measures. Materials and methods: In the research, we applied a complex of philosophical and ideological approaches, general scientific and special methods of scientific cognition, in particular civilizational and axiological approaches as well as dialectical, dogmatic, comparative, and statistical methods. The empirical basis of the study is represented by the statistical data of the healthcare sector of European countries, generalization of the practice of vaccination. In the study, we use international and European regulatory legal acts and documents in the field of human rights, national legislation of foreign countries. Conclusions: Vaccination represents an important component of the fundamental right to health. International legal acts on the human rights regulation, in particular the right to health, do not provide an unambiguous answer to the question of whether vaccination is the right or responsibility of a person, which has resulted in the existence of a wide range of vaccination policies and models. The existence of a wide range of policies and practices in States Parties to the Convention makes permissible the application of more imperative approaches to immunization, in particular, in cases where voluntary vaccination is not sufficient to ensure the threshold of herd immunity. In most countries, vaccination against COVID-19 is carried out voluntarily, whereas the complication of the epidemiological situation has resulted in following the path of introducing mandatory vaccination in some countries, both with regard to certain population categories (France, Greece, Russia, Ukraine) and the entire population (Tajikistan, Turkmenistan).

scholarly journals A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 369 (6505) ◽  
pp. 846-849 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Britton ◽  
Frank Ball ◽  
Pieter Trapman
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Social Activity ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Population Heterogeneity ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Mixing Rates ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Induced Immunity

Despite various levels of preventive measures, in 2020, many countries have suffered severely from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. Using a model, we show that population heterogeneity can affect disease-induced immunity considerably because the proportion of infected individuals in groups with the highest contact rates is greater than that in groups with low contact rates. We estimate that if R0 = 2.5 in an age-structured community with mixing rates fitted to social activity, then the disease-induced herd immunity level can be ~43%, which is substantially less than the classical herd immunity level of 60% obtained through homogeneous immunization of the population. Our estimates should be interpreted as an illustration of how population heterogeneity affects herd immunity rather than as an exact value or even a best estimate.

scholarly journals Homophily, influence and the decay of segregation in self-organizing networks

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
ADAM DOUGLAS HENRY ◽  
DIETER MITSCHE ◽  
PAWEŁ PRAŁAT
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Network Evolution ◽  
Related Phenomenon ◽  
Prior Work ◽  
Computational Simulations ◽  
Theoretical Understanding ◽  
General Mathematical Model ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Self Organizing Networks ◽  
Self Organizing

AbstractWe study the persistence of network segregation in networks characterized by the co-evolution of vertex attributes and link structures, in particular where individual vertices form linkages on the basis of similarity with other network vertices (homophily), and where vertex attributes diffuse across linkages, making connected vertices more similar over time (influence). A general mathematical model of these processes is used to examine the relative influence of homophily and influence in the maintenance and decay of network segregation in self-organizing networks. While prior work has shown that homophily is capable of producing strong network segregation when attributes are fixed, we show that adding even minute levels of influence is sufficient to overcome the tendency towards segregation even in the presence of relatively strong homophily processes. This result is proven mathematically for all large networks and illustrated through a series of computational simulations that account for additional network evolution processes. This research contributes to a better theoretical understanding of the conditions under which network segregation and related phenomenon—such as community structure—may emerge, which has implications for the design of interventions that may promote more efficient network structures.

scholarly journals The Language of Russian Fake Stories: A Corpus-Based Study of the Topical Change in the Viral Disinformation

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 83-106
Author(s):  
Alina Monogarova ◽  
Tatyana Shiryaeva ◽  
Nadezhda Arupova
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Text Mining ◽  
Public Interest ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
First Year ◽  
The Public ◽  
Effective Strategies ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
Over Time

The spread of disinformation during the COVID-19 pandemic is largely associated with social media and online messengers. Viral disinformation disseminated in 2020–2021 was related to a wide range of topics that caused panic among people. Many false narratives emerged and attracted public interest over time, which mainly reflected the general public’s utmost belief in these topics. Text mining can be used to analyze the frequencies of keywords and topic-related vocabulary in order to track the changing focus of the public concerning online disinformation. In this paper, we present the results of a corpus-based study of Russian viral fake stories circulating during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose a method for analyzing the central topics and dynamics of topical change in the context of the Russian COVID-19-fake story. In order to accomplish this objective, we make use of a set of tools to extract keywords, count their frequencies and analyze corresponding contexts. We apply these tools to the compiled specialized diachronic corpus of Russian viral false COVID-19-related stories. The obtained data is evaluated to determine the dynamic of topical shifts by tracking the changes in keyword frequencies as well as the use of other high-frequency corpus words. The findings of the work concerning topical fluctuations in the Russian viral COVID-19 disinformation agenda as well as given explanations for the identified drifts in public interest in the topics during the first year of the pandemic can contribute to developing effective strategies for combating the spread of fakes in the future.

scholarly journals A General Mechano-Pharmaco-Biological Model for Bone Remodeling Including Cortisol Variation

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1401
Author(s):  
Rabeb Ben Kahla ◽  
Abdelwahed Barkaoui ◽  
Moez Chafra ◽  
João Manuel R. S. Tavares
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Bone Remodeling ◽  
Cell Populations ◽  
Biological Models ◽  
Mass Variation ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Mechanical Models ◽  
General Mathematical Model ◽  
Current Article

The process of bone remodeling requires a strict coordination of bone resorption and formation in time and space in order to maintain consistent bone quality and quantity. Bone-resorbing osteoclasts and bone-forming osteoblasts are the two major players in the remodeling process. Their coordination is achieved by generating the appropriate number of osteoblasts since osteoblastic-lineage cells govern the bone mass variation and regulate a corresponding number of osteoclasts. Furthermore, diverse hormones, cytokines and growth factors that strongly link osteoblasts to osteoclasts coordinated these two cell populations. The understanding of this complex remodeling process and predicting its evolution is crucial to manage bone strength under physiologic and pathologic conditions. Several mathematical models have been suggested to clarify this remodeling process, from the earliest purely phenomenological to the latest biomechanical and mechanobiological models. In this current article, a general mathematical model is proposed to fill the gaps identified in former bone remodeling models. The proposed model is the result of combining existing bone remodeling models to present an updated model, which also incorporates several important parameters affecting bone remodeling under various physiologic and pathologic conditions. Furthermore, the proposed model can be extended to include additional parameters in the future. These parameters are divided into four groups according to their origin, whether endogenous or exogenous, and the cell population they affect, whether osteoclasts or osteoblasts. The model also enables easy coupling of biological models to pharmacological and/or mechanical models in the future.

Evaluation of 99mTc-Label led Vitamin K4 as an Agent for Testicular Imaging

1991 ◽  
Vol 30 (01) ◽  
pp. 35-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. S. Durak ◽  
M. Kitapgi ◽  
B. E. Caner ◽  
R. Senekowitsch ◽  
M. T. Ercan
Keyword(s):  
Soft Tissue ◽  
Room Temperature ◽  
Normal Subjects ◽  
Left Testis ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Activity Ratios ◽  
The Right ◽  
Radioactivity Levels

Vitamin K4 was labelled with 99mTc with an efficiency higher than 97%. The compound was stable up to 24 h at room temperature, and its biodistribution in NMRI mice indicated its in vivo stability. Blood radioactivity levels were high over a wide range. 10% of the injected activity remained in blood after 24 h. Excretion was mostly via kidneys. Only the liver and kidneys concentrated appreciable amounts of radioactivity. Testis/soft tissue ratios were 1.4 and 1.57 at 6 and 24 h, respectively. Testis/blood ratios were lower than 1. In vitro studies with mouse blood indicated that 33.9 ±9.6% of the radioactivity was associated with RBCs; it was washed out almost completely with saline. Protein binding was 28.7 ±6.3% as determined by TCA precipitation. Blood clearance of 99mTc-l<4 in normal subjects showed a slow decrease of radioactivity, reaching a plateau after 16 h at 20% of the injected activity. In scintigraphic images in men the testes could be well visualized. The right/left testis ratio was 1.08 ±0.13. Testis/soft tissue and testis/blood activity ratios were highest at 3 h. These ratios were higher than those obtained with pertechnetate at 20 min post injection.99mTc-l<4 appears to be a promising radiopharmaceutical for the scintigraphic visualization of testes.

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