scholarly journals Future Changes in Flood Hazards across Canada under a Changing Climate

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1441 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayushi Gaur ◽  
Abhishek Gaur ◽  
Slobodan Simonovic
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Civil Infrastructure ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
North Central ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
The Future ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
General Climate

Climate change has induced considerable changes in the dynamics of key hydro-climatic variables across Canada, including floods. In this study, runoff projections made by 21 General Climate Models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to generate 25 km resolution streamflow estimates across Canada for historical (1961–2005) and future (2061–2100) time-periods. These estimates are used to calculate future projected changes in flood magnitudes and timings across Canada. Results obtained indicate that flood frequencies in the northernmost regions of Canada, and south-western Ontario can be expected to increase in the future. As an example, the historical 100-year return period events in these regions are expected to become 10–60 year return period events. On the other hand, northern prairies and north-central Ontario can be expected to experience decreases in flooding frequencies in future. The historical 100-year return period flood events in these regions are expected to become 160–200 year return period events in future. Furthermore, prairies, parts of Quebec, Ontario, Nunavut, and Yukon territories can be expected to experience earlier snowmelt-driven floods in the future. The results from this study will help decision-makers to effectively manage and design municipal and civil infrastructure in Canada under a changing climate.

scholarly journals Projection of Future Extreme Precipitation and Flood Changes of the Jinsha River Basin in China Based on CMIP5 Climate Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 2491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhe Yuan ◽  
Jijun Xu ◽  
Yongqiang Wang
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Jinsha River ◽  
Cmip5 Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
The Future ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Projecting future changes in extreme flood is critical for risk management. This paper presented an analysis of the implications of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP5) climate models on the future flood in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB) in Southwest China, using the Xinanjiang (XAJ) hydrologic model. The bias-corrected and resampled results of the multimodel dataset came from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Relatively optimal general circulation models (GCMs) were selected with probability density functions (PDFs)-based assessment. These GCMs were coupled with the XAJ model to evaluate the impact of climate change on future extreme flood changes in the JRB. Two scenarios were chosen, namely: a midrange mitigation scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5) and a high scenario (RCP8.5). Results show that: (1) The XAJ model performed well in simulating daily discharge and was suitable for the study area, with ENS and R2 higher than 0.8; (2) IPSL-CM5A-LR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM showed considerable skill in representing the observed PDFs of extreme precipitation. The average skill scores across the total area of the JRB were 0.41 to 0.66 and 0.53 to 0.67, respectively. Therefore, these two GCMs can be chosen to analyze the changes in extreme precipitation and flood in the future; (3) The average extreme precipitation under 20- and 50-year return period across the JRB were projected to increase by 1.0–33.7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during 2020 to 2050. The Upper basin is projected to experience the largest increase in extreme precipitation indices, possibly caused by a warmer climate. The extreme flood under 20- and 50-year return period will change by 0.8 to 23.8% and −6.2 to 28.2%, respectively, over this same future period. Most of scenarios projected an increase during the near future periods, implying the JRB would be likely to undergo more flooding in the future.

Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Curves Under Changing Climate – A Non-Stationary Modelling Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jency Maria Sojan ◽  
Roshan Srivastav
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Generalized Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Future Time Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
Idf Curves ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency ◽  
Modelling Approach

<p>Anthropogenic activities have accelerated the global warming phenomena, causing a rapid change in the weather patterns, especially the extremes. Intensification of magnitude and frequency of extreme events have increased the stress on water infrastructures. Hence design methods have to be updated to build climate-resilient infrastructures. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves play a vital role in flood risk assessment and impact the region's socio-economic structure. In this study, a non-stationary modelling approach is proposed to develop IDF curves under changing climate using Global Climate Models (GCMs). Non-Stationary Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (NS-GEVD) location parameter is modelled as a linear function of GCM outputs.  Data used for analysis is the annual maximum daily precipitation generated at a Hyderabad city station, India using 27 GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP-5).  The analysis is carried out for the baseline period of 1971 to 2005 and the future time-period of 2006 to 2100. Corrected Akaike Information Criterion test statistic is used to identify the best NS-GEVD model. The results indicate that NS-GEVD model could capture the non-stationary behaviour and predicted an average increase of 7% in extreme rainfall intensity for the future. Besides, it is observed that six GCM covariates outperform other GCMs. The outcomes of this study will benefit the city municipality, practitioners and decision-makers in identifying future risk for water infrastructures. </p>

scholarly journals Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 5163-5172 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. D. Outten ◽  
I. Esau
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Threshold Method ◽  
Statistical Estimates ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Extreme Winds

Abstract. Extreme winds cause vast amounts of damage every year and represent a major concern for numerous industries including construction, afforestation, wind energy and many others. Under a changing climate, the intensity and frequency of extreme events are expected to change, and accurate projections of these changes will be invaluable to decision makers and society as a whole. This work examines four regional climate model downscalings over Europe following the SRES A1B scenario from the "ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts" project (ENSEMBLES). It investigates the projected changes in the 50 yr return wind speeds and the associated uncertainties. This is accomplished by employing the peaks-over-threshold method with the use of the generalised Pareto distribution. The models show that, for much of Europe, the 50 yr return wind is projected to change by less than 2 m s−1, while the uncertainties associated with the statistical estimates are larger than this. In keeping with previous works in this field, the largest source of uncertainty is found to be the inter-model spread, with some locations showing differences in the 50 yr return wind of over 20 m s−1 between two different downscalings.

Deep Learning Based Framework for Long-term Management of Bridges Considering Climate Change Effects

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omid Khandel ◽  
Mohamed Soliman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Service Life ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Future

<p>Hydraulic-related hazards (e.g., flood and scour) are recognized as the leading stressors that threat the safety of bridges during their service life. In addition, climate change has been recently recognized as a significant factor that can drive changes to the frequency and intensity of hydraulic-related hazards. Consequently, current design, management, and decision-making methodologies should adapt to these changes to ensure the satisfactory performance of bridges under these hazards. This paper presents a multi-hazard probabilistic framework that can help bridge officials and decision makers to establish flood fragility curves with respect to service life and variability of the future floods. In this paper, downscaled climate data, adopted from the global climate models, are employed to predict future flood hazards at a given location. Time-variant scour depth profiles based on the predicted streamflow data are then estimated and used to predict the future condition of the bridge. Deep learning networks and finite element modeling are then employed to quantify the structural performance of the investigated bridge under applicable hazards. The proposed framework is illustrated on an existing bridge in Oklahoma.</p>

Drought variability and projections over India under high emission scenario with uncertainty assessment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Saquib Saharwardi ◽  
Pankaj Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Emission

&lt;p&gt;Hydrological extremes have increased in recent decades and are expected to escalate in the future. This led to global and regional water stress and drought hazards. Further down in the chain it impacts on farming, pollution, ecosystem, and socio-economic conditions. A better understanding of both quantitative and qualitative assessment of drought under changing climate is very crucial for sustainable water security and management. In the present study, over different homogeneous regions of India, using 19 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) 21 simulations datasets, drought climatology is prepared. The changes in drought distribution and characteristics analyzed using density functions and its probability of occurrence associated with return period derived from Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Potential Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Each model is evaluated for biases against Multi-Model Ensembles (MME) and observational datasets for the reference period 1976-2005. Uncertainties from various sources associated with intermodal variability, including drought type and threshold, were evaluated. Under high emission (RCP8.5) scenario, both the ensembles (GCM and RCM) are showing the consistent spatiotemporal variability of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration with noticeable differences in magnitude. Biases are reduced in RCM over GCM (ensemble) with respect to observations. Modeled SPI is showing enhanced wetness derived from increased precipitation, while SPEI is exhibiting the drying trend largely associated with enhanced potential evapotranspiration under warming climate. There is an increase in the drought severity and intensity with the same return period in the future epoch. The overall analysis suggests the water scarcity and enhanced drought risks over India under unrestricted anthropogenic warming scenario.&lt;/p&gt;

Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Culture in Managerial Processes Based on the Hofstede Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 205-210
Author(s):  
Dumitru Iancu ◽  
Dorel Badea
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Cultural Characteristics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Organizational Problem ◽  
Cultural Structure

AbstractWe communicate and decide every day, but the complexity of the context in which we do these things is increasing. Today, the cultural structure of the organization’s members, due to the need to have competent employees in correlation with the established objectives, is somewhat puzzled and dynamical. Thus, the decision-makers must take into account (mandatory) the cultural basis of the subordinates when choosing the best alternative for solving an organizational problem. From this perspective, Hofstede’s model can be one of the explanatory modalities of the organization’s cultural characteristics as a basis to identify the action’s solutions in that organization for the future.

scholarly journals Meaningful, but effective? A critical evaluation of Ireland’s citizens’ dialogues on the future of Europe

Politics ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 026339572199148
Author(s):  
Anthony Costello
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Public Relations ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Critical Evaluation ◽  
Participatory Approach ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Deliberative Process ◽  
Political Will ◽  
The Future

On the 25 March 2017, leaders of the EU27 and European Union (EU) institutions ratified the Rome Declaration. They committed to invite citizens to discuss Europe’s future and to provide recommendations that would facilitate their decision-makers in shaping their national positions on Europe. In response, citizens’ dialogues on the future of Europe were instituted across the Union to facilitate public participation in shaping Europe. This paper explores Ireland’s set of dialogues which took place during 2018. Although event organisers in Ireland applied a relatively atypical and more systematic and participatory approach to their dialogues, evidence suggests that Irelands’ dialogues were reminiscent of a public relations exercise which showcased the country’s commitment to incorporating citizens into the debate on Europe while avoiding a deliberative design which could have strengthened the quality of public discourse and the quality of public recommendations. Due to an absence of elite political will for a deliberative process, as well as structural weaknesses in design, participants’ recommendations lacked any clear and prescriptive direction which could shape Ireland’s national position on the future of Europe in any constructive or meaningful way.

scholarly journals Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1548
Author(s):  
Suresh Marahatta ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽  
Utsav Bhattarai ◽  
Dibesh Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

Using perceptual maps to communicate concepts of Sustainable Forest Management – Collaborative research with the Office of the Wet'suwet'en Nation in British Columbia

2005 ◽  
Vol 81 (3) ◽  
pp. 381-386
Author(s):  
S. Denise Allen
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Collaborative Research ◽  
Sustainable Forest Management ◽  
Software Tool ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
North Central ◽  
Criteria And Indicators ◽  
Perceptual Maps ◽  
Forest Resources Management

This article discusses collaborative research with the Office of the Wet'suwet'en Nation on their traditional territories in north-central British Columbia, Canada, a forest-dependent region where contemporary and traditional forest resources management regimes overlap. In-depth personal interviews with the hereditary chiefs and concept mapping were used to identify social-ecological linkages in Wet'suwet'en culture to inform the development of culturally sensitive social criteria and indicators of sustainable forest management (SFM) in this region. The preliminary results demonstrate how the CatPac II software tool can be applied to identify key component concepts and linkages in local definitions of SFM, and translate large volumes of (oral) qualitative data into manageable information resources for forest managers and decision-makers. Key words: social criteria and indicators, sustainable forest management, qualitative research, Wet'suwet'en

scholarly journals Projected Changes in European and North Atlantic Seasonal Wind Climate Derived from CMIP5 Simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (19) ◽  
pp. 6467-6490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimmo Ruosteenoja ◽  
Timo Vihma ◽  
Ari Venäläinen
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North ◽  
Seasonal Wind ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract Future changes in geostrophic winds over Europe and the North Atlantic region were studied utilizing output data from 21 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). Changes in temporal means, extremes, and the joint distribution of speed and direction were considered. In concordance with previous research, the time mean and extreme scalar wind speeds do not change pronouncedly in response to the projected climate change; some degree of weakening occurs in the majority of the domain. Nevertheless, substantial changes in high wind speeds are identified when studying the geostrophic winds from different directions separately. In particular, in northern Europe in autumn and in parts of northwestern Europe in winter, the frequency of strong westerly winds is projected to increase by up to 50%. Concurrently, easterly winds become less common. In addition, we evaluated the potential of the GCMs to simulate changes in the near-surface true wind speeds. In ocean areas, changes in the true and geostrophic winds are mainly consistent and the emerging differences can be explained (e.g., by the retreat of Arctic sea ice). Conversely, in several GCMs the continental wind speed response proved to be predominantly determined by fairly arbitrary changes in the surface properties rather than by changes in the atmospheric circulation. Accordingly, true wind projections derived directly from the model output should be treated with caution since they do not necessarily reflect the actual atmospheric response to global warming.

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