scholarly journals Development of a Novel Climate Adaptation Algorithm for Climate Risk Assessment

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ching-Pin Tung ◽  
Jung-Hsuan Tsao ◽  
Yu-Chuan Tien ◽  
Chung-Yi Lin ◽  
Bing-Chen Jhong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Standard Operating Procedure ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Adaptation Algorithm ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

To comprehensively assess the climate risk originating from climate change, this study aims at developing a novel climate adaptation algorithm, representing not only on the basis of Climate Change Adaptation Six Steps (CCA6Steps), but also innovations in climate risk template. The climate risk template is proposed as a climate risk analysis tool based on the procedure of CCA6Steps, including the identification of problems and objectives, the analysis of current and future risks, and the assessment of adaptation options, to identify the relationship between the climate risk components, including hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. An application is implemented to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed algorithm in this study. The results show that the problems and objectives which concern the governance level and stakeholders can be clearly identified by the proposed algorithm. The relationship between climate-related hazards, exposure, and vulnerability of the protected target can also be precisely investigated. Furthermore, the climate adaptation strategies able to mitigate the impact of hazards on the protected target are further discussed in this study. In summary, the proposed climate adaptation algorithm is expected to provide a standard operating procedure and be a useful tool to support climate risk assessment.

The Framework for Generating Climate Risk Infographic and Applying to Risk Communication

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chin Chieh Liu ◽  
Ching Pin Tung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Communication ◽  
Entropy Method ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Adaptation Pathway ◽  
Plan Adaptation ◽  
Strategy Planning ◽  
Composition Factors

<p>      Adaptation is an indispensable part of climate change impact, and risk assessment plays an important role between data arrangement and strategy planning. This study aims at developing a framework from risk assessment to information presentation, then applying to risk communication. This framework refers to Climate Risk Template, defining risk as to the integration of hazard, exposure and sensitivity; simultaneously, Climate Risk Template is an auxiliary tool basing on Climate Change Adaptation Six Steps(CCA6Steps), which is the systematic procedure to analyze risk and plan adaptation pathway. This study emphasized on landslide disaster as the key issue and selected community residents, roads as the protected targets. First of all, collate stimulated results of landslide potential evaluation and literature, cases, questionnaires which were probed into exposure and sensitivity. Next, establish a factors list of climate risk and giving weights to correlation factors by Entropy Method. Finally, use risk matrix to evaluate the risk value and present the results of risk assessment by infographic. For essentially helping on risk communication, this study proposes a framework to make the general public understand the causes of regional disaster risk and assists executive units to implement climate risk assessment and adaptation pathway planning. Eventually, the study will innovate a prototype of using this framework; therefore, users just have to write down the key issue, protected target and choose the composition factors of risk, then they can accomplish climate risk assessment and generate climate risk infographic by themselves.</p><p>Keywords: Climate risk template, Climate risk assessment, Risk communication, infographic</p>

The application of climate adaptation algorithm to physical climate risk assessment and management of the TCFD

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iwen Liu ◽  
Ching-pin Tung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Financial Disclosure ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Climate Scenarios

<p>The Financial Stability Board (FSB) published “Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD)” in 2017 to assist companies in assessing climate-related risks and opportunities and financial disclosure. However, the integration between climate scenarios and the corporate risk management system and the financial quantification of climate-related risks are still the challenges for corporate practice. To collect the climate scenarios mentioned in TCFD and integrate the relevant factors in corporate operations, the study will use the framework of TCFD: Governance, Strategy, Risk management, Metrics and Targets, introduce the first three steps of the Climate Change Adaptation (CCA Steps): "identifying problems and establishing objectives", "assessing and analyzing current risk", "assessing and analyzing future risk", and use climate risk template which use  Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability as risk assessment factors to establish a framework for the evaluation and analysis of risk. After establishing a complete method for climate risk and opportunity assessment, in response to the "financial disclosure", the study will link to the financial statement items, referring to related concepts such as “Value at Risk” and “stranded assets”, to strengthen the integrity and transparency of corporate financial disclosure. At last, the study will select a specific climate physical risk in a industry for case study by the analysis of literature, international reports and historical events and introduce a climate risk assessment framework to verify the practicality of this framework. The study's results will be applied to the risk management of business operations. At the same time, the framework of climate risk can assist companies to put climate change factors into their decisions, maintaining the sustainable competitiveness in a low-carbon economy.</p><p>Key words: climate risk assessment, TCFD, enterprise risk management</p>

Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment in Azerbaijan’s mountain regions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Zebisch ◽  
Stefano Terzi ◽  
Alice Crespi ◽  
Ruth Sonnenschein ◽  
Stefan Steger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Mountain Regions ◽  
Qualitative Information ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Local Stakeholders ◽  
Climate Hazards ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risk Processes

<p>Mountain regions are an important hotspot of vulnerability to climate change. These ecosystems are experiencing a higher warming rate than other areas in the world, with severe consequences on the environment, the economy and society. This is particularly relevant for Azerbaijan’s mountain regions, where the climate change impacts on water management could lead to severe consequences on the main local socio-economic activities such as agriculture and livestock farming.</p><p>For these reasons, the Impact Chains (ICs) methodology has been applied within two regions of Azerbaijan to understand and investigate cause-effect chains of current and future risk from different type of climate hazards following the approach proposed in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). ICs provide a consolidated scheme which helps to better understand, systemize and prioritize the factors driving climate impact related risks in a specific system and to perform climate risk assessments. It includes the underlying root-causes of climate risk, hazard, exposure and vulnerability factors and their interactions coming from quantitative and qualitative information.</p><p>Here we present the ICs study for Azerbaijan’s mountain regions accounting for flood, drought, erosion, heat stress and forest fires identified as the most relevant hazards in the country.</p><p>Climate conditions and future hazard components were assessed looking at future daily temperature and precipitation data until 2099 from two RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). The spatialized dataset is an ensemble of four global climate model simulations at a resolution of 0.5°x0.5°. In particular, the ISIMIP projections were exploited to extract the future evolution and spatial distribution over the region of relevant indicators for climate and climate hazards, including weather extremes and droughts.</p><p>The different levels of exposure and vulnerability were evaluated combining quantitative and qualitative information coming from spatial analysis, workshop discussion and questionnaires with local stakeholders and experts.</p><p>To finalize the risk assessment, the hazard, exposure and vulnerability components were combined through aggregation and normalisation techniques and risk indicators and hotspot maps for Azerbaijan’s mountain regions were developed.</p><p>The information provided by the ICs will be available to further analyse the risk processes and local dynamics, and to support local stakeholders in decision-making process and future investments on risk reduction and climate adaptation plans.</p>

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

scholarly journals Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick L. Barnard ◽  
Jenifer E. Dugan ◽  
Henry M. Page ◽  
Nathan J. Wood ◽  
Juliette A. Finzi Hart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Sandy Beaches ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Coastal Systems ◽  
Projected Changes

AbstractAs the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding.

Farmers’ Capacity and Rice Productivity in Climate Change Adaptation in Central Lampung Regency, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 346-353
Author(s):  
Indah Listiana ◽  
Indah Nurmayasari ◽  
Rinaldi Bursan ◽  
Muher Sukmayanto ◽  
Helvi Yanfika ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Performance Level ◽  
Crop Failure ◽  
Rice Productivity ◽  
Spearman Rank Correlation Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Climate change is an extreme natural change condition due to global warming that cannot be avoided, and will have a broad impact on various aspects of life, including the agricultural sector. The impact of climate change that occurs in the agricultural sector, namely flood and drought that cause plants to crop failure , is becoming greater, causing significant reduction in agricultural production, especially rice, requiring that farmers have the ability to adapt to climate change. The purposes of this study are to analyze the relationship between the performance level of agricultural extension workers and the capacity level of farmers in regard to climate change adaptation, and to analyze the relationship between the level of farmer capacity in climate change adaptation and rice productivity. The research was conducted in Central Lampung Regency in 2019 using a total of 100 rice farmers. The data analysis method used is Spearman rank correlation analysis. The results show that the performance level of agricultural instructors is significantly related to the level of knowledge capacity, attitude, and skills of farmers in climate change adaptation. Knowledge capacity, attitude, and skills of farmers in climate change adaptation are significantly related to rice productivity.

Impact of extreme hydrological perturbation on sediment distribution from source to sink, PETM, Spain.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marine Prieur ◽  
Alexander C. Whittaker ◽  
Fritz Schlunegger ◽  
Tor O. Sømme ◽  
Jean Braun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Depositional Environments ◽  
Lead Author ◽  
Current Increase ◽  
Sediment Distribution ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Source To Sink ◽  
The Impact

<p>Sedimentary dynamics and fluxes are influenced by both autogenic and allogenic forcings. A better understanding of the evolution of sedimentary systems through time and space requires us to decipher, and therefore to characterise, the impact of each of these on the Earth’s landscape. Given the current increase in the concentration of atmospheric carbon, studying the impact of rapid and global climate changes is of particular importance at the present time. Such events have been clearly defined in the geologic record. Among them, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) has been extensively studied worldwide and represents a possible analogue of the rapid current climate warming.</p><p>The present project focuses on the Southern Pyrenees (Spain) where excellent exposures of the Paleocene-Eocene interval span a large range of depositional environments from continental to deep-marine. These conditions allow us to collect data along the whole depositional system in order to document changes in sediment fluxes and paleohydraulic conditions. Because hydrological conditions have an impact on sediment transport through hydrodynamics, paleoflow reconstructions can shed light on changes in sediment dynamics. This information is reconstructed from the statistical distributions of channel morphologies, characteristic system dimensions including bankfull channel depth and width, and grain-sizes.</p><p>With this approach, our aim is to provide both qualitative and quantitative assessments of the magnitude and extent of the perturbation of sedimentary fluxes along an entire source-to-sink system during an episode of extreme climate change. This will lead to a better understanding of the impact of abrupt climate change on earth surface systems in mid-latitudinal areas, with possible implications for current climate adaptation policy.</p><p>This research is carried out in the scope of the lead author’s PhD project and is part of the S2S-FUTURE European Marie Skłodowska-Curie ITN (Grant Agreement No 860383).</p>

scholarly journals Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michalis I. Vousdoukas ◽  
Dimitrios Bouziotas ◽  
Alessio Giardino ◽  
Laurens M. Bouwer ◽  
Evangelos Voukouvalas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Flood ◽  
Coastal Flood Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. An upscaling of flood risk assessment frameworks beyond regional and national scales has taken place during recent years, with a number of large-scale models emerging as tools for hotspot identification, support for international policy-making and harmonization of climate change adaptation strategies. There is, however, limited insight on the scaling effects and structural limitations of flood risk models and, therefore, the underlying uncertainty. In light of this, we examine key sources of epistemic uncertainty in the Coastal Flood Risk (CFR) modelling chain: (i) the inclusion and interaction of different hydraulic components leading to extreme sea-level (ESL); (ii) inundation modelling; (iii) the underlying uncertainty in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM); (iv) flood defence information; (v) the assumptions behind the use of depth-damage functions that express vulnerability; and (vi) different climate change projections. The impact of these uncertainties to estimated Expected Annual Damage (EAD) for present and future climates is evaluated in a dual case study in Faro, Portugal and in the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of the uncertainty factors varies among the different case studies, baseline CFR estimates, as well as their absolute/relative changes. We find that uncertainty from ESL contributions, and in particular the way waves are treated, can be higher than the uncertainty of the two greenhouse gas emission projections and six climate models that are used. Of comparable importance is the quality of information on coastal protection levels and DEM information. In the absence of large-extent datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy the latter two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of large-scale CFR assessment quality.

scholarly journals German–Russian gas relations in face of the energy transition

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 406-423
Author(s):  
Kirsten Westphal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Paradigm Shifts ◽  
Address Climate Change ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Russia is the world’s largest gas exporter and Germany is its most important market. Moreover, natural gas is a centerpiece of the Russian economy and the backbone of its energy supply to the Russian population. In terms of its external gas relations, Germany has always kept a special and strategic position, both in terms of volumes, but also in substance. This contribution explores the impact of the energy transition on the bilateral gas relationship. It argues that the bilateral gas relationship has been subjected to various paradigm shifts in the past, but, until recently, the relationship has been seen as in line with the strategic energy triangle of climate change/sustainability, supply security and economic competitiveness. This perception has come into question over two issues: climate change and supply security. Moreover, Germany’s authority over the conduct and the legal framework of bilateral gas relations has been increasingly contested, by Brussels, but also horizontally by other EU member states. At this stage, it is very uncertain whether both sides will manage to maintain and redefine their close energy partnership to address climate change. Decarbonizing the gas value chain would be a centerpiece. This would require a political shift away from securitization to decarbonization, not only in Germany, but even more so in the EU, and in particular, in Russia.

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