scholarly journals Projected Changes in the Water Budget for Eastern Colombia Due to Climate Change

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oscar Molina ◽  
Thi Thanh Luong ◽  
Christian Bernhofer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Budget ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Temporal And Spatial Distribution

There is a lack of information about the effect of climate change on the water budget for the eastern side of Colombia, which is currently experiencing an increased pressure on its water resources due to the demand for food, industrial use, and human demand for drinking and hygiene. In this study, the lumped model BROOK90 was utilized with input based on the available historical and projected meteorological data, as well as land use and soil information. With this data, we were able to determine the changes in the water balance components in four different regions, representing four different water districts in Eastern Colombia. These four regions reflect four different sets of climate and geographic conditions. The projected data were obtained using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), in which two global climate models were used in addition to two different climate scenarios from each. These are the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Results showed that the temporal and spatial distribution of water balance components were considerably affected by the changing climate. A reduction in the generated streamflow for all of the studied regions is shown and changes in the evapotranspiration and stored water were varied for each region according to both the climate scenario as well as the characteristics of soil and land use for each area. The results of spatial change of the water balance components showed a direct link to the geography of each region. Soil moisture was reduced considerably in the next decades, and the percentage of decrease varied for each scenario.

scholarly journals Water Availability–Demand Balance under Climate Change Scenarios in an Overpopulated Region of Mexico

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1846
Author(s):  
Jessica Bravo-Cadena ◽  
Numa P. Pavón ◽  
Patricia Balvanera ◽  
Gerardo Sánchez-Rojas ◽  
Ramón Razo-Zarate
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Deficit ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Footprint ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change scenarios show that water availability could be decreasing in the near future, adding to the increasing problem of the growing water demands in socioeconomic sectors. The aim of this work was to generate a geographically explicit water balance concerning availability vs. demand in an overpopulated region of Mexico. Water balance and water deficit models were made for three periods of time: 1970–2000, and two future periods of time (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Three global climate models were used in addition to two different climate scenarios from each (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.6 and RCP 8.5). Water demand for socioeconomic sectors was calculated through the water footprint. Water availability was 197,644.58 hm3/year, while that the water demand was 59,187 hm3/year. The socioeconomic sectors with the highest demand were domestic services (48%), agriculture (27%), livestock agriculture (20%), and timber production (5%). The highest water availability areas were not the same as those with the highest demand and vice versa. However, 39% of municipalities had a higher water demand than its availability. A significant reduction in water availability was identified, considering an interval of −15% to 40%. This variation depends on climate models, scenarios, and period of time. Areas with overpopulated cities in the region would have higher pressure on water availability. These results could be used in the implementation of public policies by focusing on adaptation strategies to reduce water deficit in the immediate future.

scholarly journals Water budget comparison of global climate models and experimental data in Onça Creek basin, Brazil

2014 ◽  
Vol 364 ◽  
pp. 70-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. C. D. Melo ◽  
I. S. P. Marin ◽  
E. Wendland
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Budget ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Other ◽  
Water Budgets

Abstract. Groundwater is an important part of the hydrological cycle, accounting for more than 25% of human needs on the global scale. As a result of aquifer overexploitation associated with climate change, even in the most conservative future climate scenarios, mean water-table levels can experience drastic drops. Although there are efforts to include groundwater dynamics in global climate models (GCMs), its influence is still not taken into full account in GCM water budgets, although it is as important as the other water sources considered. To assess the role of percolation in the water balance, we compared the water budget from climate forcing scenarios using 10 GCMs with the water budget from experimental data of a basin in São Paulo state, Brazil. We used the delta factor approach to correct the bias of the model's temperature and precipitation for a control period from 1970 to 1999, and calculated evapotranspiration using the Thornthwaite method. Experimental data for runoff and interception were derived for the basin’s representative crops (sugar cane and pasture) for both water budgets. As the GCMs ignore subsurface flow and the only input considered is precipitation and snow melt, the excess surface water is assumed to be redistributed among the other water budget components. The experimental data shows that there is enough available water for infiltration, indicating that recharge cannot be ignored in the water balance. This leads to the possibility of the models’ overestimating the other components to compensate for the ignored recharge.

scholarly journals Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Quante ◽  
Sven N. Willner ◽  
Robin Middelanis ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Future Warming

AbstractDue to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.

scholarly journals Reassessing Existing Reservoir Supply Capacity and Management Resilience under Climate Change and Sediment Deposition

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1819
Author(s):  
Eleni S. Bekri ◽  
Polychronis Economou ◽  
Panayotis C. Yannopoulos ◽  
Alexander C. Demetracopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Sediment Deposition ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Management Scenario ◽  
Supply Capacity

Freshwater resources are limited and seasonally and spatially unevenly distributed. Thus, in water resources management plans, storage reservoirs play a vital role in safeguarding drinking, irrigation, hydropower and livestock water supply. In the last decades, the dams’ negative effects, such as fragmentation of water flow and sediment transport, are considered in decision-making, for achieving an optimal balance between human needs and healthy riverine and coastal ecosystems. Currently, operation of existing reservoirs is challenged by increasing water demand, climate change effects and active storage reduction due to sediment deposition, jeopardizing their supply capacity. This paper proposes a methodological framework to reassess supply capacity and management resilience for an existing reservoir under these challenges. Future projections are derived by plausible climate scenarios and global climate models and by stochastic simulation of historic data. An alternative basic reservoir management scenario with a very low exceedance probability is derived. Excess water volumes are investigated under a probabilistic prism for enabling multiple-purpose water demands. Finally, this method is showcased to the Ladhon Reservoir (Greece). The probable total benefit from water allocated to the various water uses is estimated to assist decision makers in examining the tradeoffs between the probable additional benefit and risk of exceedance.

scholarly journals Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Yang ◽  
Maigeng Zhou ◽  
Zhoupeng Ren ◽  
Mengmeng Li ◽  
Boguang Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Specific Effect ◽  
Northern China ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

AbstractRecent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2–3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4–4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5–9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0–1.2%) and 3.6% (−0.5–7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.

scholarly journals Ensemble models on palaeoclimate to predict India's groundwater challenge

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Partha Sarathi Datta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Humid Climate ◽  
Ensemble Models ◽  
North West ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
14C Age

In many parts of the world, freshwater crisis is largely due to increasing water consumption and pollution by rapidly growing population and aspirations for economic development, but, ascribed usually to the climate. However, limited understanding and knowledge gaps in the factors controlling climate and uncertainties in the climate models are unable to assess the probable impacts on water availability in tropical regions. In this context, review of ensemble models on δ18O and δD in rainfall and groundwater, 3H- and 14C- ages of groundwater and 14C- age of lakes sediments helped to reconstruct palaeoclimate and long-term recharge in the North-west India; and predict future groundwater challenge. The annual mean temperature trend indicates both warming/cooling in different parts of India in the past and during 1901–2010. Neither the GCMs (Global Climate Models) nor the observational record indicates any significant change/increase in temperature and rainfall over the last century, and climate change during the last 1200 yrs BP. In much of the North-West region, deep groundwater renewal occurred from past humid climate, and shallow groundwater renewal from limited modern recharge over the past decades. To make water management to be more responsive to climate change, the gaps in the science of climate change need to be bridged.

scholarly journals Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP-6 models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anja Katzenberger ◽  
Jacob Schewe ◽  
Julia Pongratz ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Almost All

Abstract. The Indian summer monsoon is an integral part of the global climate system. As its seasonal rainfall plays a crucial role in India's agriculture and shapes many other aspects of life, it affects the livelihood of a fifth of the world's population. It is therefore highly relevant to assess its change under potential future climate change. Global climate models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP-5) indicated a consistent increase in monsoon rainfall and its variability under global warming. Since the range of the results of CMIP-5 was still large and the confidence in the models was limited due to partly poor representation of observed rainfall, the updates within the latest generation of climate models in CMIP-6 are of interest. Here, we analyse 32 models of the latest CMIP-6 exercise with regard to their annual mean monsoon rainfall and its variability. All of these models show a substantial increase in June-to-September (JJAS) mean rainfall under unabated climate change (SSP5-8.5) and most do also for the other three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways analyzed (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0). Moreover, the simulation ensemble indicates a linear dependence of rainfall on global mean temperature with high agreement between the models and independent of the SSP; the multi-model mean for JJAS projects an increase of 0.33 mm/day and 5.3 % per degree of global warming. This is significantly higher than in the CMIP-5 projections. Most models project that the increase will contribute to the precipitation especially in the Himalaya region and to the northeast of the Bay of Bengal, as well as the west coast of India. Interannual variability is found to be increasing in the higher-warming scenarios by almost all models. The CMIP-6 simulations largely confirm the findings from CMIP-5 models, but show an increased robustness across models with reduced uncertainties and updated magnitudes towards a stronger increase in monsoon rainfall.

scholarly journals Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation and CO2 Fertilisation

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stewart A. Jennings ◽  
Ann-Kristin Koehler ◽  
Kathryn J. Nicklin ◽  
Chetan Deva ◽  
Steven M. Sait ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Modeling Studies ◽  
Potato Yields

The contribution of potatoes to the global food supply is increasing—consumption more than doubled in developing countries between 1960 and 2005. Understanding climate change impacts on global potato yields is therefore important for future food security. Analyses of climate change impacts on potato compared to other major crops are rare, especially at the global scale. Of two global gridded potato modeling studies published at the time of this analysis, one simulated the impacts of temperature increases on potential potato yields; the other did not simulate the impacts of farmer adaptation to climate change, which may offset negative climate change impacts on yield. These studies may therefore overestimate negative climate change impacts on yields as they do not simultaneously include CO2 fertilisation and adaptation to climate change. Here we simulate the abiotic impacts of climate change on potato to 2050 using the GLAM crop model and the ISI-MIP ensemble of global climate models. Simulations include adaptations to climate change through varying planting windows and varieties and CO2 fertilisation, unlike previous global potato modeling studies. Results show significant skill in reproducing observed national scale yields in Europe. Elsewhere, correlations are generally positive but low, primarily due to poor relationships between national scale observed yields and climate. Future climate simulations including adaptation to climate change through changing planting windows and crop varieties show that yields are expected to increase in most cases as a result of longer growing seasons and CO2 fertilisation. Average global yield increases range from 9 to 20% when including adaptation. The global average yield benefits of adaptation to climate change range from 10 to 17% across climate models. Potato agriculture is associated with lower green house gas emissions relative to other major crops and therefore can be seen as a climate smart option given projected yield increases with adaptation.

scholarly journals How random are predictions of forest growth? The importance of weather variability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna Horemans ◽  
Olga Vindušková ◽  
Gaby Deckmyn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Random Order ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Weather Variability

Quantifying the output uncertainty and tracking down its origins is key to interpreting the results of model studies. We perform such an uncertainty analysis on the predictions of forest growth and yield under climate change. We specifically focus on the effect of the inter-annual climate variability. For that, the climate years in the model input (daily resolution) were randomly shuffled within each 5-year period. In total, 540 simulations (10 parameter sets, 9 climate shuffles, 3 global climate models and 2 mitigation scenarios), were made for one growing cycle (80 years) of a Scots pine forest growing in Peitz (Germany). Our results show that, besides the important effect of the parameter set, the random order of climate years can significantly change results such as basal area and produced volume, and the response of these to climate change. We stress that the effect of weather variability should be included in the design of impact model ensembles, and the accompanying uncertainty analysis. We further suggest presenting model results as likelihoods to allow risk assessment. For example, in our study the likelihood of a decrease in basal area of >10% with no mitigation was 20.4%, while the likelihood of an increase >10% was 34.4%.

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