scholarly journals System approach to data analysis of pandemic development and forecasting

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (135) ◽  
pp. 107-118
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Bakhrushyn
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
System Approach ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Effective Prevention ◽  
Base Level ◽  
Other Information ◽  
Precautionary Measures

The Covid-19 pandemic is one of the greatest challenges to humanity of last decades. Effective prevention of its development is the problem of decision-making with many criteria, high uncertainty of the results of a choice, insufficiently understood feedbacks. There has been collected statistics on the main indicators of the pandemic over the past year. However, according to most researchers, the initial data on the number of infected and fatal cases are significantly underestimated. This makes inaccurate other important indicators, in particular, those that characterize the nature of the dynamics, the rate of infection and its mortality. At the same time, a large number of research results provide additional sources of information to improve the quality of pandemic analysis and forecasts. Mathematical models infections spreading have been significantly developed, which make it possible to refine individual indicators.According to model estimates, the maximum number of daily cases can be 50 times higher than the official data, and the dates of maxima can be up to 4-5 weeks earlier. For Ukraine, the highest values of "excess mortality" (as a percentage of the average level in 2015 - 2016) were observed in September (15.8%), October (20.3%), November (33.7%) and December (29.2%). In January 2021, according to incomplete preliminary data it is expected the significant reducing of the indicator to the value less than 2%. Per 100 thousand inhabitants, the "excess mortality" in 2020 was about 38.8 thousands (in the first 5 months there were negative values of the indicator), and for the period from June 2020 to January 2021 - about 53.5 thousands, or 14.1% of the base level for this period. An analysis of Google's search queries gives grounds to assume that in early January 2020, the pandemic spread in many countries on different continents, and precautionary measures were taken too late.The obtained data show that the involvement of additional sources of information makes it possible to compensate for the imperfections of official operational data and to un-derstand better the patterns of occurrence and development of Covid-19 pandemic. At the same time, a system approach to decision-making on prevention the development of a pandemic should take into account the information on morbidity and mortality statistics as well as other information, in particular on virus mutations, re-infection, vaccination, testing, socio-economic consequences etc. This should be the subject of further research.

scholarly journals The eARTISTS Media and Information Literacy Model for Managing Access to Quality Information

2021 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 245-249
Author(s):  
Jagtar Singh ◽  
Alton Grizzle
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Literacy ◽  
Quality Information ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Commercial Media ◽  
Other Information ◽  
Timely Access ◽  
Quality Decision ◽  
Information Providers

Information is necessary for eliminating uncertainty and facilitating decision-making. Quality of decisions depends upon the quality of information available to the stakeholders. But to manage access to quality information, information seekers have to depend upon different sources of information, media, and other information providers. Unfortunately, the commercial media is controlled by corporate tycoons, governments, politicians and various non-government organisations (NGOs). These information providers have some motive behind the stories flashed by them. Hence, media and information literacy (MIL) skills are necessary for ascertaining truth behind the story. Earlier, information literacy and media literacy were used as separate concepts but now UNESCO is using (MIL) as a composite concept, appreciating the symbiosis between media and information. This article gives an overview of a few MIL related developments and describes the e-ARTISTS MIL Model developed by Jagtar Singh and Alton Grizzle. Differentiating the e-ARTISTS Model from the Big6 Model and the Empowering 8 Model of Information Literacy, it justifies the need for e-ARTISTS MIL Model for managing timely access to quality information for facilitating quality decision-making.

scholarly journals 3200 Balancing Cost and Quality of Care in the US and Denmark: Lessons for Nations Transitioning from Volume-Based to Value-Based Care

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (s1) ◽  
pp. 140-140
Author(s):  
Negin Fouladi ◽  
Margit Malmmose
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Quality Of Care ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Healthcare Organizations ◽  
Regulatory Oversight ◽  
Physician Practices ◽  
The Us

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Promote knowledge translation and evidence-informed decision-making by assessing barriers and facilitators to balancing cost and quality of care within the US state of Maryland and nation of Denmark. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Open-ended and semi-structured key-informant interviews were conducted in 2016 and 2017 among high level decision-makers in Maryland (N=21) and the Danish (N=17) healthcare systems, including hospital, local, regional, and cross-organizational administrators and elected officials. The interviews consisted of questions related to: (1) currently practiced and preferred approaches to resource allocation and development and use of quality performance measures, and (2) preferred sources, formats/styles, modes of information, and decision-making strategies based on a shift from volume to quality-driven care. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Decision-makers in Maryland expressed the need for collaboration in a changing environment, yet increasingly rely on cost and quality outcomes data to drive decisions and note the struggle to identify credible and useful information. Maryland decision-makers also face challenges in regulating utilization and costs without mandated participation of physician practices within the global budget cap model, which is perceived to be a primary driver of healthcare utilization in the hospital sector. Similarly, decision-makers in Denmark conveyed the importance of quantitative data to aid decisions, however, stress collaboration and dialogue as driving factors and important sources of information. Danish decision-makers also express challenges to wide-spread adoption of a quality-driven approach due to unsustained quality assurance regulatory bodies. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: The findings suggest implementation of value-based healthcare is highly driven and influenced by availability of credible data, which may significantly impact development of policies and innovative cost control strategies, and regulatory oversight to promote adoption of quality measures in decision-making. Furthermore, collaboration within and across healthcare organizations remains a key component to health system improvement as it fosters dialogue and sharing of best practices among stakeholders.

scholarly journals The Birth of the CrowdLaw Movement: Tech-Based Citizen Participation, Legitimacy and the Quality of Lawmaking

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 337-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victòria Alsina ◽  
José Luis Martí
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Citizen Participation ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Exact Role ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Laws And Policies ◽  
Public Decision ◽  
Public Decision Making

Abstract One of the most urgent debates of our time is about the exact role that new technologies can and should play in our societies and particularly in our public decision-making processes. This paper is a first attempt to introduce the idea of CrowdLaw, defined as online public participation leveraging new technologies to tap into diverse sources of information, judgments and expertise at each stage of the law and policymaking cycle to improve the quality as well as the legitimacy of the resulting laws and policies. First, we explain why CrowdLaw differs from many previous forms of political participation. Second,we reproduce and explain the CrowdLaw Manifesto that the rising CrowdLaw community has elaborated to foster such approaches around the world. Lastly, we introduce some preliminary considerations on the notions of justice, legitimacy and quality of lawmaking and public decision-making, which are central to the idea of CrowdLaw.

scholarly journals Potential of using data assimilation to support forest planning

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 690-695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rami Saad ◽  
Kyle Eyvindson ◽  
Peichen Gong ◽  
Tomas Lämås ◽  
Göran Ståhl
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Forest Planning ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Related Literature ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Scientific Fields

Uncertainty in forest information typically results in economic and ecological losses as a consequence of suboptimal management decisions. Several techniques have been proposed to handle such uncertainties. However, these techniques are often complex and costly. Data assimilation (DA) has recently been advocated as a tool that may reduce the uncertainty, thereby improving the quality of forest planning results. It offers an opportunity to make use of all new sources of information in a systematic way and thus provides more accurate and up-to-date information to forest planning. In this study, we refer to literature on handling uncertainties in forest planning, as well as related literature from other scientific fields, to assess the potential benefits of using DA in forest planning. We identify five major potential benefits: (i) the accuracy of the information will be improved; (ii) the information will be kept up to date; (iii) the DA process will provide information with estimated accuracy; (iv) stochastic decision making can be applied whereby the accuracy of the information can be utilized in the decision making process; and (v) DA data allows for the analysis of optimal data acquisition decisions.

scholarly journals When Scientists Become Social Scientists: How Citizen Science Projects Learn About Volunteers

1970 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 61-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Darch
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Citizen Science ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Team Members ◽  
Science Project ◽  
Science Projects ◽  
Long Term Observation ◽  
Citizen Science Project

Online citizen science projects involve recruitment of volunteers to assist researchers with the creation, curation, and analysis of large datasets. Enhancing the quality of these data products is a fundamental concern for teams running citizen science projects. Decisions about a project’s design and operations have a critical effect both on whether the project recruits and retains enough volunteers, and on the quality of volunteers’ work. The processes by which the team running a project learn about their volunteers play a critical role in these decisions. Improving these processes will enhance decision-making, resulting in better quality datasets, and more successful outcomes for citizen science projects. This paper presents a qualitative case study, involving interviews and long-term observation, of how the team running Galaxy Zoo, a major citizen science project in astronomy, came to know their volunteers and how this knowledge shaped their decision-making processes. This paper presents three instances that played significant roles in shaping Galaxy Zoo team members’ understandings of volunteers. Team members integrated heterogeneous sources of information to derive new insights into the volunteers. Project metrics and formal studies of volunteers combined with tacit understandings gained through on- and offline interactions with volunteers. This paper presents a number of recommendations for practice. These recommendations include strategies for improving how citizen science project team members learn about volunteers, and how teams can more effectively circulate among themselves what they learn.

“It's Not Humanly Possible to Do Everything”: Perspectives on Intervention Decision-Making Processes of Parents of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erinn Finke ◽  
Kathryn Drager ◽  
Elizabeth C. Serpentine
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Individualized Education Program ◽  
Children With Autism ◽  
Autism Spectrum ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Spectrum Disorders ◽  
Interview Methodology ◽  
Communication Interventions

Purpose The purpose of this investigation was to understand the decision-making processes used by parents of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) related to communication-based interventions. Method Qualitative interview methodology was used. Data were gathered through interviews. Each parent had a child with ASD who was at least four-years-old; lived with their child with ASD; had a child with ASD without functional speech for communication; and used at least two different communication interventions. Results Parents considered several sources of information for learning about interventions and provided various reasons to initiate and discontinue a communication intervention. Parents also discussed challenges introduced once opinions of the school individualized education program (IEP) team had to be considered. Conclusions Parents of children with ASD primarily use individual decision-making processes to select interventions. This discrepancy speaks to the need for parents and professionals to share a common “language” about interventions and the decision-making process.

Evaluation of the Academic Setting in Spain 1This study was financed by the University of Oviedo.

1995 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Fernández ◽  
Miguel A. Mateo ◽  
José Muñiz
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Climate ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Academic Setting ◽  
Teaching And Research ◽  
Evaluation Questionnaire ◽  
University Teachers ◽  
The University

The conditions are investigated in which Spanish university teachers carry out their teaching and research functions. 655 teachers from the University of Oviedo took part in this study by completing the Academic Setting Evaluation Questionnaire (ASEQ). Of the three dimensions assessed in the ASEQ, Satisfaction received the lowest ratings, Social Climate was rated higher, and Relations with students was rated the highest. These results are similar to those found in two studies carried out in the academic years 1986/87 and 1989/90. Their relevance for higher education is twofold because these data can be used as a complement of those obtained by means of students' opinions, and the crossing of both types of data can facilitate decision making in order to improve the quality of the work (teaching and research) of the university institutions.

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