scholarly journals Testing Minsky’s Financial Fragility Hypothesis for Turkey’s Public Finances

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 497-514
Author(s):  
Cansin Kemal Can ◽  
Ismail Canöz
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
Financial Fragility ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Fragility Index ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
The Government

This paper gauges the degree of fiscal vulnerability in Turkey from a Minskian perspective. Succinctly speaking, Minsky’s financial stability hypothesis states that the government should apply hedge financing at least sporadically and pursue countercyclical fiscal policies to restore stability. We calculated two fiscal fragility indices based on Minsky’s hypothesis to examine the recent trends in Turkish public finances. According to our findings, Turkish fiscal balances are in a deteriorating trend and heading towards (ultra)Ponzi financing which is evidenced by the plummeting values of the fiscal fragility index. The results are suggestive that currently the fiscal performance in Turkey is waning gradually and current fiscal posture is not on a par with past years. Worsening fiscal balances emit a signal for a looming fiscal crisis and it is evident that this trend should promptly be reversed by the aid of appropriate expedients. Quitting the use of procyclical fiscal policies, building up public confidence by primary balance generation, implementing full-fledged tax reform, restructuring contingent liabilities, proper scrutiny of expenditures, reducing profligacy are among the policy options available for the government. Notwithstanding the abundance of alternative fiscal policies, the current Covid-19 pandemic is quite a hindrance to attaining intended outcomes regarding fiscal stability.

Unpopular tax reforms will be put on hold in Peru

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Power Balance ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Tax Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
The Guardian

Significance This is the second cabinet change in as many months by President Martin Vizcarra’s administration. Tuesta’s removal represents a shift in the power balance between the prime minister’s office and the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), traditionally regarded as the guardian of public finances. It reflects the determination of the new administration to avoid unpopular fiscal policies whose main impact would fall on less affluent taxpayers. Impacts The direction of policy will not change radically under Oliva. A probable rise in mining revenues will likely defer unpopular attempts at broader tax reform. Efforts to reduce tax evasion will produce disappointing results.

scholarly journals How vulnerable is the fiscal posture in Turkey?

Green Finance ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 319-336
Author(s):  
Cansın Kemal CAN ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Tax Reform ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Fragility Index ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Fiscal Adjustments ◽  
The Government ◽  
Index Value ◽  
Spending Cuts

<abstract> <p>This study gauges the degree of fiscal vulnerability in Turkey by calculating the debt stabilising primary balance level and evaluates how this variable measures up against the actual primary balance levels for the 1978–2019 period. Based on this comparison, we build up a fiscal fragility index using the methodology described in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="b15">Stoian (2012)</xref>. In addition, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test is carried out to detect the direction of causality among these two variables. The index-based analysis reveals that the fiscal performance of Turkey was chiefly satisfactory for the estimation period. Also, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test results imply a unidirectional causality from the required primary balance to real primary balance, suggesting that the government uses the primary balance to stabilise fiscal imbalances, which is an affirmative effort by the government to restore fiscal sustainability. Nevertheless, notwithstanding the implementation of corrective fiscal actions to preserve stability, the index value is steadily moving up in recent years, indicating a mounting fiscal vulnerability risk. Back-loading fiscal adjustments involving spending cuts, full-fledged tax reform, proper scrutiny of public expenses, etc., are among the prominent policy options available to the government to alter the ongoing unfavourable trend in the fiscal vulnerability index.</p> </abstract>

International Monetary Fund

1963 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 281-282 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Aid ◽  
International Monetary Fund ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
International Reserve ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
The Government ◽  
The International Monetary Fund

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) entered into a stand-by arrangement with the government of Haiti authorizing drawings up to the amount of $6 million over the next twelve months in currencies held by the Fund. The stabilization efforts of the Haitian government in recent years, conducted with Fund support, had contributed to the maintenance of internal and external financial stability. However, unusual difficulty had been encountered during the fiscal year just closing, when government revenues fell short of amounts anticipated, the inflow of foreign aid dwindled, and Haiti's international reserve position deteriorated. Haitian authorities had taken steps to strengthen the country's public finances. The Fund had granted annual stand-by arrangements to Haiti since 1958; the country's net drawings amounted to $3.75 million.

GST - Sway On Small Scale Industries

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (10) ◽  
pp. 365-372
Author(s):  
Jayanti.G ◽  
Dr. V.Selvam
Keyword(s):  
State Government ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Tax System ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Single Tax ◽  
The People ◽  
Indirect Taxes ◽  
The Government

India being a democratic and republic country, has witnessed the biggest indirect tax reform after much exploration, GST bill roll out on 1 April 2017.  The concept of this reform is for a unified country-wide tax reform system.  Enterprises particularly SMEs are caught in a state of instability.  Several taxes such s excise, service tax etc., have been subsumed with a single tax structure. it is the responsibilities of both centre and state government to shoulder the important responsibility to cater the needs of the people and the nation as a whole.  The main basis of income to the government is through levy of taxes.  To meet the so called socio-economic needs and economic growth, taxes are considered as a main source of revenue for the government.  As per Wikipedia “A tax is a mandatory financial charge or some other type of levy imposed upon tax payer by the government in order to fund various public expenditure”   it is said that tax payment is mandatory, failure to pay such taxes will be punishable under the law.   The Indian tax system is classified as direct and indirect tax.   The indirect taxes are levied on purchase, sale, and manufacture of goods and provision of service.  The indirect tax on goods and services increases its price, this can lead to inflationary trend.  Contribution of indirect taxes to total tax revenue is more than 50% in India, therefore, indirect tax is considered as a major source of tax revenue for the government, which in turn is one of source for GDP growth.  Though indirect tax is a major source of revenue, it had lot of hassles.  To overcome the major issues of indirect tax system the government of India subsumed most of the indirect tax which in turn gave birth to the concept called Goods and Service Tax.

On the Major Differences between the Banking Systems of the EAEU States

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 397-406
Author(s):  
T. E. Chekanova
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Banking Regulation ◽  
Member States ◽  
Banking Systems ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Government ◽  
Major Factors

The presented study examines the problems of integration of the national banking systems of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).Aim. The study aims to examine the major differences in various aspects of functioning of banking systems in the EAEU member states in terms of their impact on integration processes.Tasks. The author identifies the most prominent features of the banking systems of the EAEU states; reveals the depth of the existing differences through a comparative analysis of various indicators of national banking systems; outlines ways of overcoming integration problems associated with differences in the banking sectors of the Union states.Methods. This study is based on universal general scientific methods and elements of comparative, functional, and economic analysis within the framework of a systems approach. The author uses regulatory documents and banking reports of the EAEU states, statistical and analytical materials of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), and data of Moody’s international rating agency.Results. The study identifies a number of aspects that contain the major differences in the functioning of banking systems in the EAEU member states; highlights the disproportions in the scale, level of development, financial stability, and risks of the banking spheres of the Union states; comparatively analyzes the proportion of banking and non-banking structures in the system and the share of the government and non-resident companies in the capital of banks; marks the difference in the pricing of banking services; determines differences in the existing approaches to banking regulation and the established standards; analyzes the major differences in the legislative acts of the central banks and governments of the EAEU member states and in the terms and definitions used. According to the results of the study, the major factors hindering the development of integration processes between the banking systems of the EAEU states are identified.Conclusions. The existing differences between the banking systems of the EAEU countries are diverse and multifaceted. The author states that the aspects addressed in this study have a significant negative impact on the further development of integration processes, describing the major directions and actions of the member states aimed at minimizing the exiting differences, which are required to facilitate the convergence of the states and the transition towards a common financial market.

scholarly journals Public governance, agility and pandemics: a case study of the UK response to COVID-19

2021 ◽  
pp. 002085232098340
Author(s):  
Paul Joyce
Keyword(s):  
Leadership Role ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Public Governance ◽  
Local Initiative ◽  
Government Response ◽  
Local Resources ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One ◽  
The Uk

The UK government’s leaders initially believed that it was among the best-prepared governments for a pandemic. By June 2020, the outcome of the collision between the government’s initial confidence, on the one hand, and the aggressiveness and virulence of COVID-19, on the other, was evident. The UK had one of the worst COVID-19 mortality rates in the world. This article explores the UK government’s response to COVID-19 from a public administration and governance perspective. Using factual information and statistical data, it considers the government’s preparedness and strategic decisions, the delivery of the government response, and public confidence in the government. Points for practitioners Possible lessons for testing through application include: Use the precautionary principle to set planning assumptions in government strategies to create the possibility of government agility during a pandemic. Use central government’s leadership role to facilitate and enable local initiative and operational responses, as well as to take advantage of local resources and assets. Choose smart government responses that address tensions between the goal of saving lives and other government goals, and beware choices that are unsatisfactory compromises.

DILEMA PENANGANAN COVID-19: ANTARA LEGITIMASI PEMERINTAH DAN KEPATUHAN MASYARAKAT

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 90
Author(s):  
Laode Ode Harjudin
Keyword(s):  
Public Confidence ◽  
The Public ◽  
Crisis Situation ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Foundation

AbstrakPersoalan utama dalam upaya penanganan wabah Covid-19 adalah pemerintah kesulitan memperoleh kepatuhan masyarakat untuk mentaati kebijakannya sesuai protokol kesehatan. Berbagai kebijakan ataupun himbauan pemerintah tentang protokol kesehatan terkesan diabaikan atau tidak dipatuhi masyarakat. Studi ini menggunakan konsep legitimasi untuk memahami  ketidakpatuhan masyarakat dalam upaya penanganan wabah Covid-19. Metode yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah penelurusan kepustakaan dan dokumentasi. Hasil studi menunjukkan bawha dalam penanganan Covid-19 pemerintah mengalami krisis legitimasi, sehingga pememerintah mendapatkan tentangan (resistensi), dan kepercayaan masyarakat terhadap hukum, peraturan dan keputusannya akan meluap. Hal terjadi karena pencintraan politik berlebihan yang hanya melahirkan demokrasi semu tanpa fondasi politik yang kuat. Pemerintah seperti ini sulit mengharapkan kepatuhan masyarakat dalam situasi krisis. Kata Kunci: pandemi global, krisis legitimasi, politik pencitraan Abstract The main problem in the efforts to deal with the Covid-19 outbreak was that the government had difficulty obtaining community compliance to comply with its policies according to health protocols. Various policies or government appeals on health protocols appear to be ignored or not obeyed by the public. This study uses the concept of legitimacy to understand community non-compliance in efforts to deal with the Covid-19 outbreak. The method used in this study is searching literature and documentation. The results of the study showed that in handling Covid-19 the government experienced a crisis of legitimacy, so that the government received opposition (resistance), and public confidence in the laws, regulations and decisions would overflow. This happened because of excessive political intelligence which only gave birth to pseudo democracy without a strong political foundation. Such a government is difficult to expect community compliance in a crisis situation. Keywords: global pandemic, crisis of legitimacy, imaging politics

scholarly journals Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Output Stabilization in Developing Countries: Evidence from Rwanda

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 220
Author(s):  
Kabanda Richard ◽  
Peter W. Muriu ◽  
Benjamin Maturu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Relative Effectiveness ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Impulse Responses ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Output Stabilization ◽  
The Government

The aim of this study was to explain the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies in explaining output in Rwanda. The study used a sample of quarterly data for the period 1996-2014. Applying a recursive VAR, the study used 12 variables, including 5 endogenous and 7exogenous variables to the benchmark model and other two specifications were attempted to capture the true contribution of monetary and fiscal policies to variations in nominal output. Obtained results using impulse responses and variance decomposition provide evidence that monetary policy is more effective than fiscal policy in explaining changes in nominal output in Rwanda. In addition, monetary policy explains better output when the VAR model contains domestic exogenous variables than when they are not included, suggesting the relevance of including domestic exogenous variables in VAR specification of monetary and fiscal policies effectiveness on economic variables. Another suggestion is that in order to achieve higher growth, the government of Rwanda should rely more on monetary policy as compared to fiscal policy.

Trolls Just Want To Have Fun

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 21-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shefali Virkar
Keyword(s):  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Citizen Participation ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Body Politic ◽  
The Body ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Power Structures ◽  
Digital Platforms ◽  
Political Processes ◽  
The Government

Over the last two decades, public confidence and trust in Government has declined visibly in several Western liberal democracies owing to a distinct lack of opportunities for citizen participation in political processes; and has instead given way instead to disillusionment with current political institutions, actors, and practices. The rise of the Internet as a global communications medium and the advent of digital platforms has opened up huge opportunities and raised new challenges for public institutions and agencies, with digital technology creating new forms of community; empowering citizens and reforming existing power structures in a way that has rendered obsolete or inappropriate many of the tools and processes of traditional democratic politics. Through an analysis of the No. 10 Downing Street ePetitions Initiative based in the United Kingdom, this article seeks to engage with issues related to the innovative use of network technology by Government to involve citizens in policy processes within existing democratic frameworks in order to improve administration, to reform democratic processes, and to renew citizen trust in institutions of governance. In particular, the work seeks to examine whether the application of the new Information and Communication Technologies to participatory democracy in the Government 2.0 era would eventually lead to radical transformations in government functioning, policymaking, and the body politic, or merely to modest, unspectacular political reform and to the emergence of technology-based, obsessive-compulsive pathologies and Internet-based trolling behaviours amongst individuals in society.

“Sound Finances”: Strategy or Soundbite

2017 ◽  
Vol 241 ◽  
pp. R13-R32
Author(s):  
Michael McMahon
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Political Choices ◽  
Balanced Budget ◽  
The Government

A defining feature of (at least) the last three general elections has been the emphasis placed on each political party's fiscal credibility and their ability to deliver “sound public finances”. Applying the logic of household book-keeping, balancing the fiscal budget is said to capture such soundness. There is, however, little evidence that a balanced budget is necessarily sound. Instead, the evolution of public finances depends on (1) both the fiscal choices made on the level of spending and taxation, (2) the underlying growth of the economy which depends on far more than the fiscal decisions, and (3) interest rates on government debt and the financing needs of the government. As the economic situation changes, so too does the likely path of debt to GDP and hence the possible fiscal options open to a country. Sticking to the soundbite of “sound finances” has often distracted from the underlying menu of political choices and as such is a disruptive narrative in UK economics today.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document