scholarly journals How vulnerable is the fiscal posture in Turkey?

Green Finance ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 319-336
Author(s):  
Cansın Kemal CAN ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Tax Reform ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Fragility Index ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Fiscal Adjustments ◽  
The Government ◽  
Index Value ◽  
Spending Cuts

<abstract> <p>This study gauges the degree of fiscal vulnerability in Turkey by calculating the debt stabilising primary balance level and evaluates how this variable measures up against the actual primary balance levels for the 1978–2019 period. Based on this comparison, we build up a fiscal fragility index using the methodology described in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="b15">Stoian (2012)</xref>. In addition, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test is carried out to detect the direction of causality among these two variables. The index-based analysis reveals that the fiscal performance of Turkey was chiefly satisfactory for the estimation period. Also, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test results imply a unidirectional causality from the required primary balance to real primary balance, suggesting that the government uses the primary balance to stabilise fiscal imbalances, which is an affirmative effort by the government to restore fiscal sustainability. Nevertheless, notwithstanding the implementation of corrective fiscal actions to preserve stability, the index value is steadily moving up in recent years, indicating a mounting fiscal vulnerability risk. Back-loading fiscal adjustments involving spending cuts, full-fledged tax reform, proper scrutiny of public expenses, etc., are among the prominent policy options available to the government to alter the ongoing unfavourable trend in the fiscal vulnerability index.</p> </abstract>

scholarly journals The Nexus between Export and Economic Growth in Tanzania

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. p95
Author(s):  
Romanus L. Dimoso (PhD, Economics) ◽  
UTONGA, Dickson (MSc. Economics)
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Government ◽  
Econometrics Analysis

This study explored the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. It analyzed time series data for the period of 1980 to 2015. Economic growth is measured in terms of growth per cent while exports are measured in percentage change of goods and services sold abroad. Econometrics analysis was employed in the due course. Such procedures as testing for the presence of unit root, co-integration and causality were done. Furthermore, the Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests were employed to examine the long-run relationship among variables. The results of co-integration indicate the existence of one co-integrating equation. The causality test results exhibited causality which runs from economic growth to exports. The results conclude that, in the long run, there is a relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. This study recommends the Government to make efforts to improve exports and eventually, in the long-run, rejuvenating the economy.

scholarly journals Fiscal Sustainability in the European Countries: A Panel ARDL Approach and a Dynamic Panel Threshold Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 8505 ◽  
Author(s):  
María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera ◽  
María A. Prats
Keyword(s):  
Threshold Model ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Panel Granger Causality ◽  
Potential Gdp ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time

We analyze the fiscal sustainability hypothesis for a panel of 20 European Union countries from 2000 to 2019. In particular, we employ new econometric methodologies that, to the best of our knowledge, are applied for the first time to the study of sovereign fiscal policy sustainability in these economies. Specifically, we estimate the panel ARDL technique, distinguishing between short- and long-run coefficients because the order of integration of our variables is not the same. Moreover, a panel threshold model with endogeneity is considered to investigate whether, departing from a particular threshold, there is different behavior between the government primary balance and public debt, both taken as a ratio of potential GDP. Finally, the panel Granger causality test is implemented to determine the direction of causality or the existence of bidirectional causality.

scholarly journals Testing Minsky’s Financial Fragility Hypothesis for Turkey’s Public Finances

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 497-514
Author(s):  
Cansin Kemal Can ◽  
Ismail Canöz
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
Financial Fragility ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Fragility Index ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
The Government

This paper gauges the degree of fiscal vulnerability in Turkey from a Minskian perspective. Succinctly speaking, Minsky’s financial stability hypothesis states that the government should apply hedge financing at least sporadically and pursue countercyclical fiscal policies to restore stability. We calculated two fiscal fragility indices based on Minsky’s hypothesis to examine the recent trends in Turkish public finances. According to our findings, Turkish fiscal balances are in a deteriorating trend and heading towards (ultra)Ponzi financing which is evidenced by the plummeting values of the fiscal fragility index. The results are suggestive that currently the fiscal performance in Turkey is waning gradually and current fiscal posture is not on a par with past years. Worsening fiscal balances emit a signal for a looming fiscal crisis and it is evident that this trend should promptly be reversed by the aid of appropriate expedients. Quitting the use of procyclical fiscal policies, building up public confidence by primary balance generation, implementing full-fledged tax reform, restructuring contingent liabilities, proper scrutiny of expenditures, reducing profligacy are among the policy options available for the government. Notwithstanding the abundance of alternative fiscal policies, the current Covid-19 pandemic is quite a hindrance to attaining intended outcomes regarding fiscal stability.

Tax revenue and economic growth in developing country: an autoregressive distribution lags approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (54) ◽  
pp. 205-217
Author(s):  
Mnaku Honest Maganya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
The Government

AbstractTanzania, like most other developing countries, faces numerous economic challenges in striving to achieve sustainable economic growth and development through taxation. In the literature, the debate on how effective taxes are as a tool for promoting economic growth and economic development remains inconclusive, as various research have reported mixed effects of tax on economic growth. This article investigates the effect of taxation on economic growth in Tanzania using the recently developed technique of autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bounds testing procedure for the period from 1996 to 2019. Various preliminary tests were conducted including stationary tests as well as the pair-wise Granger causality test. According to the results obtained, domestic goods and services (TGS) taxes are positively related to GDP growth and are statistically significant at 1% level. Income taxes, on the other hand, were found to be negatively related to GDP growth and to be statistically significant at 5% level. The pair-wise Granger causality results indicated that there is bidirectional Granger causality between TGS and GDP growth at 1 % significance level. The government should aim at growing, nurturing and sustaining tax base to positively drive economic growth even further.

GST - Sway On Small Scale Industries

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (10) ◽  
pp. 365-372
Author(s):  
Jayanti.G ◽  
Dr. V.Selvam
Keyword(s):  
State Government ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Tax System ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Single Tax ◽  
The People ◽  
Indirect Taxes ◽  
The Government

India being a democratic and republic country, has witnessed the biggest indirect tax reform after much exploration, GST bill roll out on 1 April 2017.  The concept of this reform is for a unified country-wide tax reform system.  Enterprises particularly SMEs are caught in a state of instability.  Several taxes such s excise, service tax etc., have been subsumed with a single tax structure. it is the responsibilities of both centre and state government to shoulder the important responsibility to cater the needs of the people and the nation as a whole.  The main basis of income to the government is through levy of taxes.  To meet the so called socio-economic needs and economic growth, taxes are considered as a main source of revenue for the government.  As per Wikipedia “A tax is a mandatory financial charge or some other type of levy imposed upon tax payer by the government in order to fund various public expenditure”   it is said that tax payment is mandatory, failure to pay such taxes will be punishable under the law.   The Indian tax system is classified as direct and indirect tax.   The indirect taxes are levied on purchase, sale, and manufacture of goods and provision of service.  The indirect tax on goods and services increases its price, this can lead to inflationary trend.  Contribution of indirect taxes to total tax revenue is more than 50% in India, therefore, indirect tax is considered as a major source of tax revenue for the government, which in turn is one of source for GDP growth.  Though indirect tax is a major source of revenue, it had lot of hassles.  To overcome the major issues of indirect tax system the government of India subsumed most of the indirect tax which in turn gave birth to the concept called Goods and Service Tax.

Is tracking and modeling Covid-19 infection dynamics for Bangladesh using daily data feasible? (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karar Zunaid Ahsan ◽  
Rashida Ijdi ◽  
Peter Kim Streatfield
Keyword(s):  
Test Results ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Models ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Daily Number ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Daily Change ◽  
Testing Coverage

UNSTRUCTURED Given the low Covid-19 testing coverage in the country, this study tested whether the daily change in the number of new Covid-19 cases is due to increase (or decrease) in the number of tests done daily. We performed Granger causality test based on vector autoregressive models on Bangladesh case and test numbers between 8 March and 5 June 2020, using publicly available data. The test results show that the daily number of tests Granger-cause the number of new cases (p <0.001), meaning the daily number of new cases is perhaps due to an increase in test capacity rather than a change in the infection rates. From the results of this test we can infer that if the number of daily tests does not increase substantially, data on new infections will not give much information for understanding covid-19 infection dynamics in Bangladesh.

scholarly journals The drivers of economic growth in China and India: globalization or financial development?

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magda Kandil ◽  
Muhammad Shahbaz ◽  
Mantu Kumar Mahalik ◽  
Duc Khuong Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China And India ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Using annual data from 1970 to 2013 for China and India, this paper aims to examine the impact of globalization and financial development on economic growth by endogenizing capital and inflation and drawing comparisons between the two fastest growing emerging market economies. Design/methodology/approach In the long run, co-integration test results indicate that financial development increases economic growth in China and India. Findings The results also reveal that globalization accelerates economic growth in India but, surprisingly, impairs economic growth in China, as it increases competition for exports. The results furthermore disclose that acceleration in capitalization and inflation, as a proxy for aggregate demand, are positively linked to economic growth in China and India. Originality/value Causality test results indicate that both financial development and economic growth are interdependent. In contrast, causality runs from higher economic growth to increased globalization in India, while the results do not support long-term causality between globalization and economic growth in China.

scholarly journals Can successful fiscal adjustments only be achieved by spending cuts?

2018 ◽  
Vol 54 ◽  
pp. 145-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasmus Wiese ◽  
Richard Jong-A-Pin ◽  
Jakob de Haan
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Adjustments ◽  
Spending Cuts

scholarly journals The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth: An application to Turkey

2010 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 447-469
Author(s):  
Senay Acikgoz ◽  
Merter Mert
Keyword(s):  
Capital Stock ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
Production Factors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Turkish Economy

The purpose of this paper is to examine the sensitivity of the Turkish economy?s natural rate of growth to the actual rate of growth, covering the period 1980-2008. To determine the reason why the natural rate of growth is endogenous, the long-run and the causality relationships between real gross domestic product and each of the production factors (labour force and physical capital stock) are investigated with the bounds test. The natural rate of growth for the Turkish economy is found to be at 4.97 percent and it increases approximately 35.6 percent in the boom periods; indicating endogeneity. However, according to the causality test results, the endogeneity of the natural rate of growth may be attributed to the total factor productivity rather than the labour force and physical capital stock. This result is important and the debate on this subject may lead to further studies.

scholarly journals Metode Tutor Sebaya Berbantuan Whatsapp untuk Meningkatkan Hasil Uji Coba Ujian Nasional di SMK Negeri 1 Tanjungpandan

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 691-703
Author(s):  
Yuli Yulianti
Keyword(s):  
Peer Tutoring ◽  
Average Score ◽  
Learning Method ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Peer Tutors ◽  
National Examination ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Government ◽  
Academic Year

National Examination is one of the learning results assessment set by the Government, and is ruled at Minister of Education and Culture regulation Number 4 year 2018. The problem discussed in this study is the low percentage of students achieving Graduare Competence Standard/SKL 55 in the nationale examination tryout for mathematics. One of the alternatives to solve this problem is the Peer Tutoring learning method using Whatsapp Messenger application asisstance, in which the subject is grade 12 AP students of SMK Negeri 1 Tanjungpandan academic year of 2018/2019. The research method implemented is the classroom action research. The peer tutoring learning method using Whatsapp Messenger application asisstance was carried out both inside and outside the classroom by providing a smaller member whatsapp group and a  classroom whatsapp group. Each small group consists of 6 people in which there were 1-2 peer tutors. Based on the results of data analysis and discussion, there was an increase at the results of the tryout of mathematics national exam tryout for grade 12 AP students after peer tutoring learning method using whatsapp messenger application asisstance was applied, with the total increase up to 50%. This fact can be inferred from the difference of the test results percentage for the first tryout and the third tryout which is from 10% to 60%, while the average score is increased from 34.96 to 60.22 by 25.26 points.

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