scholarly journals Modelling procedures for assessing the effectiveness of innovative projects under the conditions of risk and uncertainty

Author(s):  
Yaroslav Paraniuk

While considering the current state of innovative projects, it is expedient to take into account the risk factor which makes it possible to adapt to the market environment. Due to high risks ways should be sought to minimize them. The research paper presents such methods of minimizing risks, namely: risk-sharing between project participants; carrying out insurance of projects; reserving funds for contingent expenses. With regard to characteristics of particular industry, the scheme for classification of innovative risks is proposed. It is pointed out that the distinguishing feature of innovation risks is that they are determined for each stage of the product innovation life cycle from the perspective of scientific, technological and commercial success. And then, the integral or, in other words, overall risk is determined. It is noted that in order to adequately assess the effectiveness of the project, it is necessary to have sufficient information to form a reasonable hypotheses about the probable distribution of the key parameters of the project. In such cases, the missing data is replaced by the values obtained in the process of determining the integral risk. The identification of integral risks is especially effective in cases where the processes under consideration are too complex, have a random (stochastic) nature or cannot be studied under real conditions. The simplest integral models are often used to generate source data that has some permissible properties. It is argued that in order to obtain the most accurate results it is expedient to use the method of problem-thematic (innovative) forecasting, since it will make it possible to take full account of all interconnections between the initial indicators of the project. The proposed procedures for assessing the effectiveness and risk management can be used by industrial enterprises that carry out risk management in order to avoid a crisis in an uncertain market environment. It is proved that in order to perform the procedures for assessing the effectiveness of innovative projects, it is necessary to follow five stages: to establish the relationships between initial and base indicators in the form of a mathematical equation or inequality; to set laws of probability distribution for key parameters of the model; to carry out computer simulation of knowledge of the key parameters of the model; to calculate the basic characteristics of probability distribution of initial and output indicators; to analyze the results and make decisions.

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1366
Author(s):  
Stefan Greiving ◽  
Leonie Schödl ◽  
Karl-Heinz Gaudry ◽  
Iris Katherine Quintana Miralles ◽  
Benjamín Prado Larraín ◽  
...  

In Chile and Ecuador, multiple hazards and dynamic processes in vulnerability pose a high risk. Spatial planning and emergency management can contribute to disaster risk management but they follow different goals. However, global goals, such as from UN-ISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction) and UN SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals) can potentially support cities and regions in defining concerted action. This paper aims at measuring the performance of Chile and Ecuador in regard to the aforementioned policy goals. Although both countries show considerable progresses in the implementation of the UN strategies, it is doubtful that the existing global monitoring approach is appropriately designed for measuring the real situation on the ground. Our paper is based on a desktop research combined with stakeholder workshops and expert interviews. Overall, both countries made considerable progress in regard to disaster preparedness and monitoring. However, multi-risks are rarely considered and there is still increasing vulnerability due to the expansion of informal settlements. The risk management is characterized by an imbalanced distribution of financial resources and institutional capacities between the metropolitan regions and smaller municipalities, and by low public participation and hardly community-based approaches. The paper underlines the importance for more qualitative, in-depth studies on the root causes of disaster risk which could complement the global monitoring which is very much focused on quantitative data and shows inconsistency between input and output indicators.


2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 86-95
Author(s):  
R. M. Kachalov ◽  
Yu. A. Sleptsova

The article considers the manifestations of the phenomenon of economic risk in the socioeconomic ecosystems of industrial enterprises, examines and differentiates the pragmatic and cultural aspects of the concept of "economic risk management". In terms of methodology, the study is based on the operational theory of risk management, and also uses tools to describe the organizational culture of risk management. Pragmatic and cultural differences in the characteristics of economic risk are identified at the level of stable forms of management activity with the involvement of the main provisions of the operational theory of risk management. The phenomenon of risk is considered in the ontological space as an artificial category of activity of industrial enterprises and other economic agents that form a socio-economic ecosystem. This phenomenon is studied as a specific form of social communication associated with the desire to assess the uncertain future in the present time, mainly from the point of view of analysis and management of the level of economic risk in the enterprise.


Author(s):  
I. V. Bukhtiyarov

The article presents the results of the analysis of health, working conditions and prevalence of adverse production factors, the structure of the detected occupational pathology in the working population of the Russian Federation. The article presents Statistical data on the dynamics of the share of workplaces of industrial enterprises that do not meet hygienic standards, occupational morbidity in 2015-2018 for the main groups of adverse factors of the production environment and the labor process. The indicators of occupational morbidity over the past 6 years in the context of the main types of economic activity, individual subjects of the Russian Federation, classes of working conditions, levels of specialized occupational health care. The role of the research Institute of occupational pathology and occupational pathology centers in solving organizational, methodological and practical tasks for the detection, treatment, rehabilitation and prevention of occupational diseases is shown. The basic directions of activity in the field of preservation and strengthening of health of workers, and also safety at a workplace are defined.


Author(s):  
V. F. Bezjazychnyi ◽  
E. V. Kiselev ◽  
V. A. Troshkin

Improvement of modern management systems for industrial enterprises involves the active use of risk management methods that are accompanied by their activities. Issues of production risks and their place in the General enterprise management system are discussed in the article. There is a classification of the main production risks and possible risk management methods applicable in the activities of an industrial enterprise.


Author(s):  
Olena Shyshkina

The article explores the terminological apparatus of such categories as "law" and "regularity" and establishes links between them. It has been proved that it is impossible to disclose the content of the methodology of financial risk management of industrial enterprises without applying the laws of different levels of knowledge (universal, general, and partial). In this connection, it has been disclosed the substantive essence of universal, general, and partial laws, the laws that are descriptive and explanatory, the laws that are statistical and dynamic, the laws that are fundamental and applied, the laws that are phenomenological and essential, and the laws of systems formation, functioning and development. The role and place of management laws in the system of laws have been determined and the role of financial risk management laws has been formulated. The basic methods of the research of problems of financial risk management of industrial enterprises have been summarized and the content of the basic laws and regularities of financial risk management of industrial enterprises has been formulated.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matej Masár ◽  
Mária Hudáková

Current trends show that education in the field of project risk management is a very actual topic. Long - term projects, which was realized in 2018, was mainly focused on R&D across the world. Short - term projects, was focused on innovation and improve manufacturing processes. Many projects failed because project managers did not manage project risks. Project managers have less knowledge and skills on how to effectively manage project risks, especially risks in the planning phase of projects. The main aim of this article is to analyze the current state of usage project risk assessment across the world, based on own empirical research, which was provided, by authors in 2018 and 2019 (mainly level of usage project risk management methods, experience and level of education). The research focused on analyzing the current state of project risk assessment among continents. The authors focused on the average level of use qualitative and quantitative project risk analysis by project managers, level of project risk management experience by project managers and complexity of learning in using of qualitative and quantitative project risk management methods and tools.  Some recommendation were established to educate project managers in the field of project risk management.


2020 ◽  
pp. 11-15
Author(s):  
Amanulla Kadyrov ◽  
◽  
Aziza Kadyrova ◽  

Creating an industrial safety management system for enterprises requires the development and application of a set of mechanisms that ensure the prevention of accidents and incidents. Risk management systems are one of the most effective mechanisms for industrial safety. However, very little attention has been paid to automation of risk management. This article is devoted to the formation of the conceptual framework for creating automated risk management systems for industrial enterprises with hazardous production facilities. The paper analyzes the structural and logical scheme of risk management. It is shown that one of the most “risk-bearing” components of hazardous production facilities are technical devices. At the same time, the maximum level of automation is possible for technical devices in relation to their maintenance, repair, and risk management tasks. Analysis of the tasks related to risk management shows their complexity and diversity. The solution of these problems is possible through the use of modern information technologies. At the same time, it is necessary to create a unified database of hazardous production facilities, a comprehensive database of regulatory, technical and legal information, automation of risk modeling and analysis of control processes, and decision-making and implementation of processes that minimize risks. At the same time, the maximum level of automation is possible for technical devices in relation to their maintenance, repair, and risk management tasks.


Vestnik MGSU ◽  
2018 ◽  
pp. 1482-1490
Author(s):  
Reza Barkhi ◽  
Victoria G. Borkovskaya

Introduction. Consider the system of organization and implementation of risk management in the building enterprise. The introduction and management of risks in an industrial enterprise is an actual problem due to the occurrence of the following list of factors: incomplete information, elements of randomness, unpredictability of actions of a partner or competitor, among others. Risk management is a process that must begin at the development stage of a industrial company’s strategy, and necessarily with the participation of its owners, since it is the owners who, when developing a strategy, should determine the maximum level of total risk that the industry company will be ready to accept in the course of its activities. Risk management in industrial enterprises should be implemented within the framework of the system and process approaches, taking into account the specifics of the industry using modern effective management methods and production organizations, as well as using risk management tools. Materials and methods. The methodology of the continuous risk management process was used to study the industry organization and implementation of risk management, and systems analysis, modeling and synthesis methods were used. Results. It was determined that the creation of a risk management department is appropriate for effective risk management at the industry enterprise. The main responsibilities of this unit, including for staff and other users (including employees, consultants and contractors), in order to successfully implement the management strategy, require unconditional implementation to minimize risks and eliminate costs in implementing risk management. It was revealed that as a result of introducing risk management in industry enterprises of various industries, a set of measures should be developed to evaluate the operational risks of an enterprise, integral risk, quantitative assessment of which is based on a comprehensive analysis of financial and accounting reports, and conducting an integrated risk assessment based on all levels of responsibility within the industrial enterprise. Conclusions. Risk management at industrial enterprises should be carried out within the framework of the system and process approaches, taking into account the specifics of the industry using modern effective management methods and production industrial organizations, as well as using risk management tools.


2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (19) ◽  
pp. 11-24
Author(s):  
Nurul Ashikin Mabahwi ◽  
Hitoshi Nakamura ◽  
Yasmin Bhattacharya

Flood risk management in Malaysia is a top-down government approach that requires shared responsibility in between government agencies. However, the issues and challenges faced by the relevant agencies is a neglected area of research. This paper aimed to identify the real issues and challenges of flood-related agencies in Malaysia. This paper used a qualitative approach to analyse the findings and found that limited authority, lack of enforcement power, lack of cooperation and collaborative risk-sharing, insufficient funding, lack of assets and manpower and communication issues are the issues faced by flood-related government agencies. Keywords:: flood-related agencies; flood risk management; flood law and policy; Malaysia eISSN 2398-4295 ©2020. The Authors. Published for AMER ABRA cE-Bs by e-International Publishing House, Ltd., UK. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer–review under responsibility of Association of Malaysian Environment-Behaviour Researchers (AMER); Association of  Behavioural Researchers on Asians / Africans / Arabians (ABRA); Centre for Environment-Behaviour Studies (cE-Bs), Faculty of Architecture, Planning & Surveying, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Malaysia DOI: https://doi.org/10.21834/ajbes.v5i19.190


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Felicitas Hoppe ◽  
Nadine Gatzert ◽  
Petra Gruner

PurposeThis article aims to gain insights on the current state of small- and medium-sized enterprises’ (SMEs’) cyber risk management process and to derive future research directions.Design/methodology/approachThis is done by collecting market insights from 37 recent industry surveys and structuring them based on the steps of the risk management process. From this analysis, major challenges are derived and future fields of research identified.FindingsThe results indicate that deficiencies in risk culture as well as the strained market for IT experts are the major obstacles with respect to the implementation of cyber risk management in SMEs, and that these challenges are similar across countries. The findings suggest that especially the relationship between cyber security culture and cyber risk management should be investigated further, and that a stronger link between the research streams on enterprise risk management and cyber risk management would be desirable.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the literature by providing a systematic overview on the current state of SMEs' cyber risk management from a market perspective. The findings provide support for the existing academic literature by emphasizing the central role of cyber security culture (perception, knowledge, attitude) for a successful cyber risk management, which however should be addressed in more depth in future (empirical) research.


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