The Impact of External Risks on Project Implementation in the Transport Sector

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 796-803
Author(s):  
S. A. Borodulina ◽  
G. A. Kostin ◽  
L. S. Trofimova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Transport Industry ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
External Risk ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
The Impact

Aim. The presented study aims to examine the elements of assessing projects for the development of the transport sector of the Russian economy in terms of external risk assessment.Tasks. The authors formulate the problem of the relevance of assessing external risks that have a significant impact on the development of the transport industry in the context of a pandemic and describe a risk assessment model through the example of transport infrastructure projects.Methods. The methods of accounting and assessment of risk factors are analyzed. The proposed model is developed based on the use of the fuzzy sets method.Results. The nature and scale of the pandemic’s impact on the major performance indicators of transport industry enterprises and the development of the transport business in 2020-2021 are determined. The impact of restrictive measures on the efficiency of transport companies has been identified and their development has been assessed as part of the implementation of industry-specific development projects. The risks of non-implementation of transport projects are discovered and described through the example of the infrastructure component. The authors focus on the assessment of environmental risks during the implementation of transport projects under unstable conditions. A model for assessing the risks of possible non-implementation of projects based on a variety of risk types and parameters is presented.Conclusions. The results of the study can be used in the justification and selection of transport projects, helping to reduce the share of non-implemented projects under complex dynamic external conditions.

scholarly journals The impact of globalization on transport investment

2021 ◽  
Vol 129 ◽  
pp. 11002
Author(s):  
Florin Dobre ◽  
Valentin Pauna ◽  
Alexandru Cristian Vasilescu ◽  
Ovidiu Andrei Cristian Buzoianu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Public Funding ◽  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
European Level ◽  
Gradual Development ◽  
The Impact

Research background: The economic impact of investing in new transport capacity or improving existing ones is complex and often indirect. Loans for infrastructure are often needed, but they cannot create sufficient conditions for economic growth. Investments in transport infrastructure require public funding. An assessment of their cost-effectiveness is needed to ensure a reasonable and acceptable allocation. Relevant economic, environmental and social effects must be taken into account. There is a growing concern in the transport sector about decisions on the development of the transport system and the effects of scale and externalities they produce. Planners and decision-makers need to know more about the wider economic impact of individual infrastructure projects and transport policies in general. Purpose of the article: This paper aims to present the most important theoretical and practical aspects of the importance of transport investment worldwide, at European level and Romania. Investments in transport infrastructure will not improve the economic vitality of a region unless it has sufficient economic capacity and employment, land use and economic development policies. Methods: This article starts from the hypothesis of the influence of globalization on the development of transport systems in general and applies as a case study on Romania. The paper was based on the analysis of transport legislation, as well as data sets for the period 2011-2019, to observe the gradual development of all types of transport. Findings & Value added: Following these researches, the link between globalization and investments in transport systems was found by emphasizing accessibility to new infrastructures, new horizons and development plans for the main types of transport, which is a key element in economic activity. The main results were disseminated throughout the article and it adds value through the analysis created at global and regional level (at European level) and the interpretation of statistical data related to transport investments.

Leveraging HCA Results in an Advanced Pipeline Risk Assessment Model

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Otto Huisman ◽  
Ricardo Almandoz ◽  
Thomas Schuster ◽  
Adriana Andrade Caballero ◽  
Leonardo Martinez Forero
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
American Petroleum Institute ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
South American ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Industry Standards ◽  
Management Approaches ◽  
American Society ◽  
The Impact

Pipeline risk analysis is a common step carried out by operators in their overall Pipeline Integrity Management Process. There is a growing realization among operators of the need to adopt more proactive risk management approaches. This has brought about increased demand for more quantitative models to support risk reduction decision-making. Consequences of failure are a key component of these models where enhanced quantitative approaches can be deployed. Impacts to the environment and upon populations are key issues which both operators and regulatory bodies seek to minimize. Pipeline risk models and High Consequence Area (HCA) analyses play an increasingly important role in this context by allowing operators to identify a range of potential scenarios and the relative impact to receptors based upon the best available data sources. This paper presents the process and results of an HCA analysis project carried out by ROSEN for a major South American state-owned pipeline operator (hereafter referred to as ‘the Client’). This analysis was implemented using automated GIS processing methods and includes HCA analyses for approximately 2354 km of pipeline. The analysis was based on industry standards for both liquid and gas pipelines (i.e. American Petroleum Institute (API) and American Society of mechanical Engineers (ASME)), but customized for the specific needs of the Client and the South American geographical context. A key use for the results of this analysis is to serve as input for the pipeline risk assessment model jointly developed by ROSEN Integrity Solutions, MACAW Engineering and the Client. The methodology for development of this model is briefly discussed, and operational uses of HCA results are illustrated. The benefits of this project include, but are not limited to, identifying areas that could be severely impacted should a pipeline failure occur, being able to assess the risk profile of credible threats in HCAs, but also being able to prioritize preventative and mitigation measures at HCAs to either reduce the likelihood of failure or the impact of failure upon various receptors.

European transport industry deregulation

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 (9) ◽  
pp. 1095-1115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis Koliousis ◽  
Dongmei Cao ◽  
Panagiotis Koliousis
Keyword(s):  
Transport Sector ◽  
Operating Efficiency ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Managerial Efficiency ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Transport Industry ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact of deregulation on the European transport industry in the form of privatization, on the managerial efficiency of a panel of deregulated transport companies. Design/methodology/approach This research examines a data set of 25 deregulated transport companies from a sample of 12 EU nations from 1988 to 2015. Some studies have analyzed deregulation by using non-parametric models. However, only a limited number of studies focus on the impact of deregulation on the managerial efficiency. This study answers two questions: whether deregulation, in the form of privatization, in the transport sector has any effect on the managerial efficiency, on the profitability and on the investment decisions of the firm, and whether this premise is robust enough across the European transport industry. This study formulates a multivariate regression framework utilizing data from major privatized European transport companies. The final panel includes 25 companies, from 12 EU - Member States for the period 1988-2015, equaling 375 firm-year observations based on a rigorous selection methodology. Findings The study confirms that transport companies, post-privatization, are more efficient regarding operating efficiency and profitability. The authors find no evidence that deregulation improves investment efficiency. Social implications The study addresses the regulators’ dilemma, whether to deregulate, by focusing on analyzing the improvement of the managerial efficiency. Originality/value This study contributes to the transport industry management literature in three ways. First, the authors update the literature of the economic theory of regulation with an empirical examination which covers the latest years across the EU Member States. Second, the authors introduce a comparison of the effects of deregulation on different components of the managerial efficiency, namely, investment, profitability and operating efficiency of the incumbents in the EU transport industry. Third, they examine deregulation by using two approaches: a traditional one where deregulation is a dummy variable assessing the overall effect on incumbents’ efficiency performance; and a novel approach where the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s deregulation index is used to measure the regulation intensity, accounting also for industry-wide impact assessment. This two-sided approach increases the robustness of the results.

scholarly journals Urban Features in Rural Landscape: A Case Study of the Municipality of Skawina

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4638 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena Wilkosz-Mamcarczyk ◽  
Barbara Olczak ◽  
Barbara Prus
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Cultural Landscape ◽  
Central City ◽  
Spatial Development ◽  
Rural Landscape ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
The Status ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
Management Changes ◽  
The Impact

Events associated with growing suburbanisation and transport infrastructure lead to changes in the use of rural land reaching further and further from the central city. The present research focuses on the impact of the location of the municipality of Skawina and the functioning of its rural areas in the impact zone of Kraków. The first step to determine the transformations in the municipality of Skawina caused by the growth of Kraków and its suburban zone was to investigate the internal conditions in the municipality, such as its spatial development or functional structure, and external conditions such as its demographic transformations. Next, the development of the settlement structure in recent years and land management changes were investigated. The paper focuses on the introduction of typical urban features and functions into rural areas to identify the transformations and their dynamics. The status of the space was diagnosed by interpreting the map documentation for the administrative boundaries of the municipality of Skawina, regarding the presentation of the spatial development in 2006 and in 2014 to 2016, by verifying the existing planning documentation, and by visiting the site. The conclusions can be the basis for guidelines to protect the traditional rural and cultural landscape near Kraków.

A Validated Risk Model for Prediction of Early Readmission in Patients with Hepatic Encephalopathy

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 0-10
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Kruger ◽  
Fasika Aberra ◽  
Sylvester M. Black ◽  
Alice Hinton ◽  
James Hanje ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Hepatic Encephalopathy ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Early Readmission ◽  
The Impact

Introduction and aim. Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a common complication in cirrhotics and is associated with an increased healthcare burden. Our aim was to study independent predictors of 30-day readmission and develop a readmission risk model in patients with HE. Secondary aims included studying readmission rates, cost, and the impact of readmission on mortality. Material and methods. We utilized the 2013 Nationwide Readmission Database (NRD) for hospitalized patients with HE. A risk assessment model based on index hospitalization variables for predicting 30-day readmission was developed using multivariate logistic regression and validated with the 2014 NRD. Patients were stratified into Low Risk and High Risk groups. Cox regression models were fit to identify predictors of calendar-year mortality. Results. Of 24,473 cirrhosis patients hospitalized with HE, 32.4% were readmitted within 30-days. Predictors of readmission included presence of ascites (OR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.06-1.33), receiving paracentesis (OR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.26-1.62) and acute kidney injury (OR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.00-1.22). Our validated model stratified patients into Low Risk and High Risk of 30-day readmissions (29% and 40%, respectively). The cost of the first readmission was higher than index admission in the 30-day readmission cohort ($14,198 vs. $10,386; p-value < 0.001). Thirty-day readmission was the strongest predictor of calendar-year mortality (HR: 4.03; 95% CI: 3.49-4.65). Conclusions. Nearly one-third of patients with HE were readmitted within 30-days, and early readmission adversely impacted healthcare utilization and calendar-year mortality. With our proposed simple risk assessment model, patients at high risk for early readmissions can be identified to potentially avert poor outcomes.

Prevalence of Risk Factors for VTE In Hospitalized Medical and Surgical Patients. Data From the Comparison of Methods for Thromboembolic Risk Assessment with Clinical Perceptions and AwareneSS In Real Life Surgical and Medical Patients (COMPASS) Study

Blood ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 116 (21) ◽  
pp. 3337-3337
Author(s):  
Grigoris T Gerotziafas ◽  
Miltos Chrysanthidis ◽  
Reda Isaad ◽  
Hela Baccouche ◽  
Chrysoula Papageorgiou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Gastrointestinal Disease ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Bleeding Risk ◽  
Hospitalized Patients ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Surgical Patients ◽  
Medical Patients ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Abstract 3337 Introduction: Risk assessment models (RAM) are helpful tools for the screening VTE risk in hospitalized patients. Most of the available RAMs have been constructed on a disease-based or surgery-based approach and include some of the most relevant risk factors for VTE. There is limited information on the impact and importance of individual and comorbidity related risk factors for VTE present during hospitalization on the global VTE risk. Incorporation of the most frequent VTE risk and bleeding risk factors related to comorbidities might improve the ability of RAM to detect real-life patients at risk VTE and to evaluate drawbacks for the application of thromboprophylaxis. Aim of the study: The primary aim of the COMPASS programme was to evaluate the prevalence of the all known VTE and bleeding risk factors reported in the literature in real-life surgical and medical hospitalized patients. Methods: A prospective multicenter cross-sectional observational study was conducted in 6 hospitals in Greece and 1 in France. All inpatients aged >40 years hospitalised for medical diseases and inpatients aged >18 years admitted due to a surgical procedure and hospitalisation for a period exceeding three days were included. Patients and their treating physicians were interviewed with standardised questionnaire including all VTE and bleeding risk factors described in literature (130 items) on the third day of hospitalisation. Patients not giving informed consent, or receiving anticoagulant treatment for any reason or hospitalised in order to undergo diagnostic investigation without any further therapeutic intervention were excluded. Results: A total of 806 patients were enrolled in the study (414 medical and 392 surgical). Most frequent causes of hospitalisation in medical patients were infection (42%), ischemic stroke (14%), cancer (13%), gastrointestinal disease (9%), pulmonary disease (4%), renal disease (3%) and rheumatologic disease (1,4%). Surgical patients were hospitalised for vascular disease (22%) cancer (19,4%) gastrointestinal disease (12,5%), infection (8%), orthopaedic surgery and trauma (14%) or minor surgery (7%). Analysis of the frequency of risk factors for VTE showed that active cancer, recent hospitalisation, venous insufficiency and total bed rest without bathroom privileges were frequent in both groups. Medical patients had significantly more frequently than surgical patients several important predisposing risk factors for VTE. Moreover, medical patient had more frequently than surgical ones bleeding risk factors. The data for the most frequent risk factors are summarised in Table 1. Conclusion: COMPASS is the first registry that provides key data on the prevalence of all known VTE and bleeding risk factors in real life medical and surgical patients hospitalised in two countries of European Union. The analysis of the data shows that in addition to risk stemin from the disease or surgical act both medical and surgical patients share common VTE risk factors. The careful analysis of the most frequent and relevant VTE risk factors will allow the derivation of a practical VTE and bleeding risk assessment model taken into account these factors. Disclosures: Chrysanthidis: Sanofi-Aventis: Employment.

scholarly journals To The Covid-19 Pandemic Experience: A View from Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (SPE3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maksim Maksimov ◽  
Natalia Prodanova ◽  
Anatoliy Kolesnikov ◽  
Aleksandr Melnikov ◽  
Ona Grazyna Rakauskiene ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Health Care Organization ◽  
Care Organization ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Made In

In the presented work, an attempt to assess the correlation between the performance indicators of several sectors of the Russian economy and a set of restrictive measures taken by the Government of our country against the backdrop of the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic is made. In addition, a comparative analysis of the impact of this pandemic on the neighboring countries of Russia, which, in the recent past, were part of the USSR and, therefore, have similar health care organization structures, is carried out.

scholarly journals Toolset for financial risk strategic assessment in corporations based on stochastic modeling

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (28) ◽  
pp. 451-464
Author(s):  
Viktoriya Manuylenko ◽  
Denis Ryzin ◽  
Natalia Gryzunova ◽  
Olga Bigday ◽  
Olga Mandrytsa
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Financial Leverage ◽  
Financial Risk Management ◽  
Environment Factors ◽  
Target Values ◽  
The Impact

The study substantiates the need to develop and test a model for assessment of strategic financial risk level in corporations. It implies modeling for two indicators: relative (financial leverage) and absolute (external capital of indicators). The model should also take into account influence of emergent environment factors and most stakeholder groups’ interests when building scenarios for their behaviors in the financial markets –Implementation of the model allows establishing financial risk target values considering deviation calculations between the indicators’ modeled and actual values simultaneously determining both tactical and strategic guidelines for Financial Risk Management Policy in corporations, which should involve stakeholders into financial risk-taking process. The model implementation also should be the basis for development and improvement of risk-based forecasting tools, business planning and stress testing. The toolkit for assessing level of current and strategic financial risks in corporations based on simulation modeling was developed and implemented with attraction of general scientific and special methods. Direct results of the study are as follows: in theoretical block of the research – essentially, main attributes of financial risks classification for corporations are identified; they are recognized by time as retrospective, current and strategic financial risks, and correct classification of the latter allows their identification, evaluation and regulation; in practical block of the research – evaluation of financial risk in corporations reveals that the risk apart from other internal factors is highly affected by the level of financial leverage, where its high value increases financial risk; still, corporations do not take into account the influence of environmental factors on its level; the role of tax risk as a part of financial risk is not significant, still it is unfortunate that the Russian legislation system allows double taxation on income tax in the form of dividends, and dividend policy of Russian corporations is unstable; in methodological block of the research –financial risk assessment model for corporations was developed and tested on a platform of a special new software product that determines the target level of financial risk; the model differs from standard approaches to financial risk assessment as it carries strategic forecasting nature and takes into account the impact of emergent environment factors; thus it promotes new areas in strategic financial risk management.

scholarly journals Finding a rIsk assessmeNt moDel for thromboembolic events in hospItalized Cancer pATiEnts: the INDICATE study running title: thromboembolism in hospitalized cancer patients

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Nichetti ◽  
Francesca Ligorio ◽  
Giulia Montelatici ◽  
Luca Porcu ◽  
Emma Zattarin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Primary Study ◽  
Low Grade ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Thromboembolic Events ◽  
Study Objective ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: Hospitalized cancer patients are at increased risk for Thromboembolic Events (TEs). As untailored thromboprophylaxis is associated with hemorrhagic complications, the definition of a risk-assessment model (RAM) in this population is needed. Objectives: INDICATE was an observational study enrolling hospitalized cancer patients, with the primary objective of assessing the Negative Predictive Value (NPV) for TEs during hospitalization and within 45 days from discharge of low-grade Khorana Score (KS=0). Secondary objectives were to assess KS Positive Predictive Value (PPV), the impact of TEs on survival and the development of a new RAM. Materials and Methods: Assuming 7% of TEs in KS=0 patients as unsatisfactory percentage and 3% of as satisfactory, 149 patients were needed to detect the favorable NPV with one-sided a= 0.10 and power=0.80. Stepwise logistic regression was adopted to identify variables included in a new RAM.Results: Among 535 enrolled patients, 153 (28.6%) had a KS=0. The primary study objective was met: 29 (5.4%) TEs were diagnosed, with 7 (4.6%) cases in the KS=0 group (NPV=95.4%, 95%CI: 90.8-98.1%; one-sided p=0.084). However, the PPV was low (5.7%, 95%CI: 1.9-12.8%); a new RAM based on albumin (OR 0.34, p=0.003), log(LDH) (OR 1.89, p=0.023) and presence of vascular compression (OR 5.32, p<.001) was developed and internally validated. Also, TEs were associated with poorer OS (median, 5.7 vs 24.8 months, p <.001).Conclusion: INDICATE showed that the KS has a good NPV but poor PPV for TEs in hospitalized cancer patients. A new RAM was developed, and deserves further assessment in external cohorts.

Research into behavioral traits of the susceptibility to the risk of significant financial misstatements

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 262-275
Author(s):  
S.V. Arzhenovskii ◽  
T.G. Sinyavskaya ◽  
A.V. Bakhteev
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Expert Survey ◽  
Personal Traits ◽  
Behavioral Traits ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The article identifies behavioral signs of the susceptibility to the risk of material misstatements through the expert survey of professional auditors. Objectives. We do empirical research into the impact five behavioral traits have, which we discovered through the two parameter risk assessment model, i.e. tolerance to violation of laws, money pathology, susceptibility to high risk, aspiration of impunity and legislative illiteracy in finance. Method.s We performed the expert survey of professional auditors to discover what determines the susceptibility to fraud among those charged with financial reporting. The expert group was made on the basis of an unbiased approach and documentation. We applied the Rasch model to rank personal traits. The collected data were processed with methods of descriptive statistics and multivariate statistical analysis. Results. Carrying out the statistical analysis of experts’ opinions, we found that their significantly correlated. Personal traits were sorted by their impact on risk assessment. Money pathology, susceptibility to high risk, aspiration of impunity and legislative illiteracy in finance were acknowledged as the most influential factors in terms of the susceptibility to misstatements of financial reporting. Conclusions and Relevance. We empirically proved the importance of factors influencing the propensity to risk of misstating financial reports. We used our own theoretical concept. The findings can be useful to auditing forms to detect the customers’ propensity to the risk of manipulating financial reporting.

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