UNDER WHAT DEMOGRAPHIC SCENARIO/SCENARIOS CAN DEVELOPED WESTERN COUNTRIES AVOID POPULATION DECLINE BY THE END OF THE CENTURY?

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
pp. 178-190
Author(s):  
S. G. SHUL’GIN ◽  
◽  
Yu. V. ZIN’KINA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Birth Rate ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Demographic Dynamics ◽  
Migration Dynamics ◽  
Small Set ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
And Migration

The prospects for the dynamics of the number of developed countries, the possible extent of its decline, the ability to compensate for a part of the natural population decline due to the attraction of migration, and various risks associated with increasing migration flows are the subject of active discussion in the scientific community. However, most of the estimates in this discussion are based on the “average” population projections developed by the UN. However, this scenario is calculated based on a fixed and fairly small set of hypotheses and patterns. In the present work, forecast scenarios of the demographic dynamics of developed countries are calculated and analyzed in connection with the dynamics of the birth rate of these countries, as well as the dynamics of migration flows. The main goal of the work is to identify for each country which combination of fertility dynamics and migration dynamics allows it to avoid population decline (and possibly even achieve an increase in population), and which make population decline inevitable.

POPULATION AGING IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: SCENARIO PROJECTIONS OF POPULATION PRESSURE

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (7) ◽  
pp. 122-133
Author(s):  
S. G. SHUL’GIN ◽  
◽  
Yu. V. ZIN’KINA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Birth Rate ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
National Level ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Population Pressure ◽  
Small Set ◽  
The Subject ◽  
First World ◽  
Scenario Projections

The problem of “population aging” in the countries of the first world and its expected consequences are the subject of active discussion in the scientific community. However, estimates of such effects are generally calculated at the national level for a particular country. Estimates for all countries are calculated by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, but the most commonly used “average” scenario is calculated based on a fixed and fairly small set of hypotheses and patterns. In this work, forecast scenarios of the dynamics of the demographic burden of the elderly in developed countries are calculated and analyzed in connection with the dynamics of the birth rate of these countries, as well as the dynamics of migration flows. The main goal of the work is to identify for each country the scale of the forthcoming increase in the demographic burden by the elderly and to assess how much the increase in the birth rate and the growth of migration can reduce or slow down the growth of this burden.

scholarly journals Global dynamics of international migration systems across South–South, North–North, and North–South flows, 1990–2015

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego F. Leal ◽  
Nicolas L. Harder
Keyword(s):  
International Migration ◽  
Network Effects ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Core Set ◽  
Migration Dynamics ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Migration Systems

AbstractEvidence from 184 countries over the span of 25 years is gathered and analyzed to understand North–North, South–South, and North–South international migration flows. Conceptually, the analysis borrows from network theory and Migration Systems Theory (MST) to develop a model to characterize the structure and evolution of international migration flows. Methodologically, the Stochastic Actor-oriented Model of network dynamics is used to jointly model the three types of flows under analysis. Results show that endogenous network effects at the monadic, dyadic, and triadic levels of analysis are relevant to understand the emergence and evolution of migration flows. The findings also show that a core set of non-network covariates, suggested by MST as key drivers of migration flows, does not always explain migration dynamics in the systems under analysis in a consistent fashion; thus, suggesting the existence of important levels of heterogeneity inherent to these three types of flows. Finally, evidence related to the role of political instability and countries’ care deficits is also discussed as part of the analysis. Overall, the results highlight the importance of analyzing flows across the globe beyond typically studied migratory corridors (e.g., North–South flows) or regions (e.g., Europe).

Shrinkage of Rural Areas as a Result of Urbanization and Migration Processes in Mexico

2019 ◽  
pp. 956-974
Author(s):  
José G. Vargas-Hernández
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Developing Economy ◽  
Shrinking Cities ◽  
Shrinkage Process ◽  
Shrinking Process ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
And Migration

The study of tendencies in economic and environmental shrinkage is tied to the expressions of substantive changes in complexity of determinant contexts of internal and migration flows. This chapter answers the challenges posed by economic tendencies, using the theories and models and does not fall victim to simplistic projections and conjectures and theories based more in speculation than in fact. The method used is the critical analysis of economic, social, and political tendencies in relation to the situation of shrinking cities in Mexico. The results of this analysis led to the finding that the shrinkage process in Mexico, as a developing economy, does not follow the same patterns of well-developed countries, and an increase in shrinking cities has occurred since the middle of the 1950s and the use of incentives in some localities to attract economic growth have had modest success in turning around the shrinking process.

Transnational Migration and Border-Making

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Transnational Migration ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
Nation States ◽  
Political Implications ◽  
Migration Dynamics ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Unpublished Research ◽  
The Eu

Examining the ongoing processes of migration in Europe and beyond, this book deals with the ongoing processes of migration and boundary-(re)making in the world. It takes stock of recent and hitherto unpublished research on the refugee crisis in Europe, migration dynamics in the Middle East and migration flows in Africa and Latin America, specifically in relation to their political, social and cultural framing. In particular, chapters in this collection focus on newer cases of transnational migration, their socio-political implications that in turn affect identity-making. Alongside the refugee and migrant crisis in Europe, which can be viewed as one of the most divisive political issues in recent European history, new patterns of migration and re-bordering can also be seen across Europe, the Middle East and beyond. These include both the rise of anti-immigration populism within the nation-states as well as different attempts to control and regulate tangible and intangible borders of the nation state to discourage migration at the regional level such as the EU.

scholarly journals LABOR FORCE REPRODUCTION IN THE POST-SOVIET RUSSIAN ECONOMY: PROBLEMS OF EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT AND MIGRATION

2020 ◽  
pp. 67-75
Author(s):  
V.I. Krishka ◽  
E.A. An ◽  
A.S. Zorin ◽  
Yu.A. Perekarenkova
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Migration ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Soviet Period ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations ◽  
Federal Districts ◽  
Migration Dynamics ◽  
Hired Labor ◽  
And Migration

This article deals with the actual problems of labor force reproduction in the post-Soviet period of the Russian market economy development. In particular, the classification of employment types of hired labor in the form of corresponding “aggregates” is proposed. The basis of these aggregates is the full cycle figure of the labor commodity form, including the “external labor market”, “internal labor market” and “dynamic labor market” associated with the employment, unemployment and labor migration. The analysis of the employment, unemployment, and labor migration dynamics made it possible, including the Federal districts territories, to identify their direct relationship with macroeconomic trends and cyclical fluctuations in the production and sale of the country’s gross domestic product. The study of the mechanical movement features of the population’s labor force allowed us to determine the main direction of migration flows to the Central, North-Western and Southern Federal districts. Against the background of natural population decline, the continuing migration outflow in other territories makes it impossible for them to ensure not only normal, but also expanded reproduction of the labor force.

scholarly journals RURAL MIGRATION PROCESSES IN MEXICAN COUNTRYSIDE

2018 ◽  
pp. 58-73
Author(s):  
José Vargas-Hernández
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Shrinking Cities ◽  
Theoretical Approaches ◽  
Shrinkage Process ◽  
Shrinking Process ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
And Migration

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the empirical-theoretical approaches to shrinking cities in Mexico. The study of tendencies in economic and environmental shrinkage is tied to the expressions of substantive changes in the complexity of determinant contexts of internal and migration flows. The analysis intents to answer the challenges posed by current economic and demographic tendencies, using theories and models and trying not to fall down victim of simplistic projections and conjectures and theories based more in speculations rather than on facts. The method used is the critical analysis of economic, social and political tendencies around the phenomenon of shrinking cities in México. The results of this analysis lead us to the conclusion that the shrinkage process in México, as a developing and emerging economy does not follow the same patterns as in well developed countries, where an increase in shrinking cities has been observed since the middle of the 1950s and the use of incentives in some localities to attract economic growth have had rather modest success in turning around the shrinking process. Further research on shrinking cities should be done in México. Finally, this paper analyzes some of the problems which are important for setting the agenda for future research in Mexico.

scholarly journals Applying Concepts and Tools in Demography for Estimating, Analyzing, and Forecasting Forced Migration

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 182-196
Author(s):  
Raya Muttarak
Keyword(s):  
Volatile Component ◽  
Forced Migration ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Policy Planning ◽  
Migration Patterns ◽  
Migration Data ◽  
Demographic Methods ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
And Migration

Among demographic events (birth, death, and migration), migration is notably the most volatile component to forecast accurately. Accounting for forced migration is even more challenging given the difficulty in collecting forced migration data. Knowledge of trends and patterns of forced migration and its future trajectory is, however, highly relevant for policy planning for migrant sending and receiving areas. This paper aims to review existing methodological tools to estimate and forecast migration in demography and explore how they can be applied to the study of forced migration. It presents steps towards estimation of forced migration and future assessments, which comprise: (1) migration flows estimation methods using both traditional and nontraditional data; (2) empirical analysis of drivers of migration and migration patterns; and (3) forecasting migration based on multidimensional population projections and scenarios approach. The paper then discusses how these demographic methods and tools can be applied to estimate and forecast forced migration.

Shrinkage of Rural Areas as a Result of Urbanization and Migration Processes in Mexico

2015 ◽  
pp. 224-241
Author(s):  
José G. Vargas-Hernández
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Developing Economy ◽  
Shrinking Cities ◽  
Shrinkage Process ◽  
Shrinking Process ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
And Migration

The study of tendencies in economic and environmental shrinkage is tied to the expressions of substantive changes in complexity of determinant contexts of internal and migration flows. This chapter answers the challenges posed by economic tendencies, using the theories and models and does not fall victim to simplistic projections and conjectures and theories based more in speculation than in fact. The method used is the critical analysis of economic, social, and political tendencies in relation to the situation of shrinking cities in Mexico. The results of this analysis led to the finding that the shrinkage process in Mexico, as a developing economy, does not follow the same patterns of well-developed countries, and an increase in shrinking cities has occurred since the middle of the 1950s and the use of incentives in some localities to attract economic growth have had modest success in turning around the shrinking process.

Migration Flows and Migration Crisis in Southern Europe

2018 ◽  
pp. 602-618
Author(s):  
Domenico Maddaloni ◽  
Grazia Moffa
Keyword(s):  
Asylum Seekers ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
Neoliberal Globalization ◽  
Political Debates ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
Migration Crisis ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Refugees And Asylum Seekers ◽  
Southern European Countries

This chapter examines the main migration flows concerning the countries of southern Europe; those are a) the immigration from developed countries b) the so-called ‘new emigration’, and c) the persistent flow of migrants, refugees, and asylum seekers. They receive a very different treatment in local political debates, which are dominated by the concern for ‘the crisis,’ (i. e., the whole range of economic, social, and political changes arising from neoliberal globalization). While discussing the current literature on these topics, the chapter shows how these flows are politically constructed for the purposes of the establishment. At the same time, the chapter highlights the relationships between these trends and the general changes affecting southern European countries.

scholarly journals Poverty and Migration in Western Balkan Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Emi Malaj ◽  
Visar Malaj
Keyword(s):  
Econometric Model ◽  
Home Country ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Least Developed Countries ◽  
The Past ◽  
Economic Recessions ◽  
Balkan Countries ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Specific Country

According to Lee (1966), the number of immigrants in a specific country is positively related with the level of the corresponding diversity of areas and people. Negative economic conditions in origin countries lead to the increase of migration flows; as a consequence, we find high immigrant volumes in wealthier countries and a significant level of mobility in least developed countries. Every stream provokes a counterstream: a relevant part of immigrants return to their home country, due to possible future economic recessions or to the learning or developing particular skills. Dissimilarity between countries and strong immigration barriers reinforce the counterstream effect. We analyze in this paper the link between poverty and migration in Western Balkan countries, and the respective implications for reforms and policies. The number of Western Balkan citizens who emigrate to developed European countries has dramatically increased over the past years. This is a consequence of increasing unemployment, poverty and social inequality. We also estimate a particular econometric model, including different experimental variables, related with migration and poverty.

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