The Paradoxical Effect of International Funds in Turkey: Dutch Disease
International funds flow freely across the countries both quantitatively and legally as a result of financial liberalization carried out by globalization process and huge amount of money flows into the countries in liberal system. Particularly for developing countries, these fund flows refer as hot money are mentioned frequently with respect of positive and negative signs. High export performance of the Netherlands as a result of discovering large natural gas reserve leads to increase rapidly its own currency. In 1959 when economic indicators getting worse, the reason of crisis appears as decreasing export in consequence of over-valued currency leads to decrease the industrial production. This paradoxical situation is named as “Dutch Disease” in economics literature. The purpose of this study is examining the effect of hot money inflow on the manufacturing sector of Turkey and testing Dutch disease for Turkish economy. In this paper, the monthly data 2006:01-2013:12 from Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is used. Test results of causality tests that Toda-Yamamoto method (1995) and Hacker-Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap method approve that there is no causality between portfolio investment and manufacturing industrial production index and also export. The results confirm that portfolio investments do not lead to Dutch disease for Turkey.