Hong Kong’s Economy Navigating Turbulent Times

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 59-71
Author(s):  
Chen LI
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Social Stability ◽  
China Trade ◽  
External Demand ◽  
Turbulent Times ◽  
The Us ◽  
Institutional Space ◽  
Annual Decline

Hong Kong’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2019 was estimated to register the first annual decline since 2009. The economic slowdown and recession in Hong Kong were driven by both weakening domestic and external demand, aggravated by local social unrest which had disrupted social stability, transportation and commerce. Hong Kong’s economic prospects hinge on how its sociopolitical situation and the US–China trade tensions will evolve. Despite short-term headwinds, Hong Kong’s competitiveness in the long term will likely remain strong if it maintains its unique institutional space and advantages in bridging mainland China and the rest of the global economy.

Long term US-China decoupling will hit US energy sales

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
The United States ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Project Costs ◽  
The Us ◽  
Alternative Markets

Subject Impact of the US-China tariffs on the energy market. Significance Global trade is slowing, and the US-China trade tariffs are exacerbating the slowdown. US oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters are finding alternative markets, but competitive pressures are likely to rise as both oil and LNG markets face oversupply. The tariffs on goods imported to the United States are also raising costs for the renewable and non-renewable sectors. Impacts US LNG producers could struggle to place cargoes as European gas storage approaches capacity. The large number of US offshore wind projects underway may be held back because the US-China tariffs are increasing project costs. Weak world trade and GDP growth is capping energy demand, offsetting supply worries and curbing oil price gains.

scholarly journals The United States-China Trade War: Empirical Assessment

2020 ◽  
pp. 35-45
Author(s):  
Victor Adjarho Ovuakporaye
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Economy ◽  
Trade Relation ◽  
Empirical Assessment ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to explore the US-China trade war by looking at various issues surrounding the US-China trade relation. The US-China trade war had been imminent since January 2018, meritoriously commenced on 6 July 2018, which is still ongoing. The US imposed sanctions on various Chinese goods, which was counter by the Chinese side also. Both side have felt the effect of the trade war though China felt the impact more than United States. Though, both nations have recently held positive trade talks which leads to the first phase of negotiation the trade war is still ongoing. If the partnership between the United states and China collapses, this will also end up harming the global economy severely since they are crucial cornerstones of the international economy.

scholarly journals China’s Rising Household Debt: A New Debt Trap?

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 567-578
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Household Borrowing

Household debt in China has risen rapidly in recent years, mostly driven by mortgages but also by ongoing financial deepening and liberalisation which facilitate economic rebalancing towards more consumption. Although the risks to financial stability do not seem large at the time of writing, the sharp rise in household debt has raised some concerns, as high household borrowing could increase macro-financial risks, particularly given the US-China trade tensions and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic that has resulted in weaker employment and export market. Rising household debt will add to medium- to long-term challenges for China’s domestic consumption and the financial sector. The authorities have so far implemented measures to lessen the risk of a sharp housing correction in the short-run.

Taiwan’s Economy in 2019: Reaping Benefits from the US–China Trade War

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 72-82
Author(s):  
Min-Hua CHIANG
Keyword(s):  
Ageing Population ◽  
External Trade ◽  
Business Operation ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The Us ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Trade War

Taiwan’s economy expanded moderately by 2.71% in 2019 despite the ongoing US–China trade war. The growing inward investment made by Taiwanese firms with overseas business operation had underpinned Taiwan’s economy despite falling exports. While mounting investment inflows to Taiwan would continue to buttress the economy, the rapid spread of coronavirus could threaten its growth prospects in 2020. In the long run, Taiwan’s lack of free trade agreements may further constrain its external trade development. Taiwan’s rapidly ageing population, one of key demographic trends, presents another challenge to its long-term economic prosperity.

Subcontractors’ Dilemma: the Expansion of Taiwanese Firms 2002–2015

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 199-229
Author(s):  
Thung-Hong Lin ◽  
Bowei Hu
Keyword(s):  
Global Market ◽  
Industrial Upgrading ◽  
Cheap Labour ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Conflicts ◽  
Capital Intensive ◽  
Minimal Effort ◽  
Unbalanced Panel Data

Since the 1970s development studies have conveyed an impression of Taiwanese firms as being active small and medium-sized enterprises (smes) with flexibility to successfully survive in a competitive global market. On the contrary, we use the unbalanced panel data of 2,969 top manufacturers during 2002–2015 to explore why and how Taiwanese firms expanded their scale and scope of operations in the new century. Our findings indicate that Taiwanese subcontractors are caught in a dilemma between the expansion of operational scale in China and industrial upgrading in Taiwan. Scale expansion can exploit the large cheap labour pool in China with minimal effort for most smes but significantly reduces the firms’ profit rates. Industrial upgrading is capital-intensive and profitable for a few Taiwanese firms but challenging for most smes to attract long-term investment in research and development. The ‘subcontractors’ dilemma’ explains Taiwanese firms’ struggles for survive in the US–China trade conflicts.

Economic Impacts of the US–China Trade War on the Asian Economy: An Applied Analysis of IDE-GSM

2021 ◽  
pp. 263168462110322
Author(s):  
Satoru Kumagai ◽  
Toshitaka Gokan ◽  
Kenmei Tsubota ◽  
Ikumo Isono ◽  
Kazunobu Hayakawa
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
The United States ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Computational General Equilibrium ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Asian Economy

In this article, we attempt to estimate the economic impacts of the US–China trade war that began in 2018. We used IDE-GSM, a computational general equilibrium simulation model, to estimate the economic impacts of a ‘full-confrontation’ scenario wherein both countries impose 25% additional tariffs on all goods imported from each other for 3 years 2019 onwards. In our calculation, the economic impact for the United States is −0.4% and −0.5% for China. Some Asian countries benefit from the trade war. As far as it remains bilateral, the trade war is only an issue for the concerned parties. We also ran the US–world trade war scenario, wherein the United States and all other countries impose a 25% additional tariff on all goods. The negative impact on the global economy is –0.8%, much more significant than the 0.1% impact from the US–China trade war. Thus, it is clear that the world cannot afford to engage in a multilateral trade war. JEL Codes: C68, F13

scholarly journals US–China Trade Disputes: Studying Long-Term Trade Patterns

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
K.V. Bhanu Murthy ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Trade Patterns ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War

US–China economic ties have expanded substantially since China began reforming its economy and liberalizing its trade regime in the late 1970s. Total US–China merchandise trade rose from $2 billion in 1979 (when China’s economic reforms began) to $636 billion in 2017. China is currently the United States’ largest merchandise trading partner, its third-largest export market, and its biggest source of imports. There are multiple areas of disagreement that preceded the trade war. One ground is that China is buying off American assets. It is also alleged that China violates US patent rights. It is also stated by United States that China has restrictions on US companies entering certain areas in production in China. The scale at which US–China trade patterns are changing and ownership patterns of both countries’ MNCs are changing results in a mystification of trade data due to intra-firm trade imports and exports. This may be a major reason why apparent trade patterns do not clearly serve as a guide for commenting on policy wars. This study examines the patterns in the US–China exports, mutual imports, and current account balances over a nearly 25-year period, to form a view about whether the trade war is justified. The general methodology in this paper has been to use a set of semi-log growth equations that enable comparison of various trade-related variables between the United States and China. The method focuses on the long-term patterns before and after global financial crisis (GFC), in the two countries, with the help of a standard dummy variable model. In conclusion, the US claims seem to be unfounded when studied through the lens of long-term trade patterns between the two countries. China’s export performance is much better. The United States’ dependence on imports from China has fallen drastically. Finally, the current balance of payments (BoP) of the United States continues to remain highly negative; whereas, in spite of the setback due to the GFC, China’s BoP position all along continues to be positive.

scholarly journals A Legal and Economic Critique of President Trump's China Trade Policies

2018 ◽  
Vol 79 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel C.K. Chow ◽  
William McGuire ◽  
Ian Sheldon
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Legal Analysis ◽  
Legal Regime ◽  
Currency Devaluation ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Legal Perspective ◽  
Trade Sanctions ◽  
The U.S

The administration of President Donald J. Trump has warned that it supports an aggressive across the board tariff of 45% on all imports from China to neutralize the effects of China’s currency manipulation. However, such a tariff cannot withstand an economic and legal analysis. Fundamental economic principles indicate that China’s alleged currency devaluation cannot create a real long-term trade advantage and that the effects of currency devaluation have no real effect on the U.S.-China trade balance. Not only is currency manipulation not a cause of the U.S. trade deficit with China but the proposed remedy of a draconian 45% tariff will only create a grievous self-inflicted wound on the U.S. and global economy. From a legal perspective, a 45% tariff cannot be justified under the legal regime of the World Trade Organization as such a tariff runs afoul of the tightly regulated regime of authorized trade sanctions. As the proposed tariff cannot be justified from a legal or economic perspective it is not an advisable or appropriate response to China’s trade practices.

The Chinese Communist Party and Politics 2019/2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (02) ◽  
pp. 5-14
Author(s):  
Gang CHEN
Keyword(s):  
Communist Party ◽  
Chinese Communist Party ◽  
Social Stability ◽  
Testing Time ◽  
Gear Up ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Chinese Communist Party ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

In September 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to gear up in countering imminent “struggles” and in achieving the ambitious “two centennial” targets amid the US–China trade war, Hong Kong unrest and a slowing economy. A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak that erupted in Wuhan in October 2019 had scuppered China’s timeline to achieve its targets. While China successfully curbed the spread of COVID-19 within its border, enormous challenges lie ahead for China to maintain its economic growth and social stability. The daunting combat against the COVID-19 pandemic marks the beginning of the testing time.

scholarly journals THE US-CHINA TRADE WAR AND ITS IMPACT ON THAILAND’S ECONOMY

2020 ◽  
pp. 17-32
Author(s):  
Irina Onyusheva ◽  
Rungnapa Khamboocha ◽  
Nipaporn Muangmutcha
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Trade Wars ◽  
The Relationship

This paper analyzes the economic consequences of the trade war ongoing between the USA and China as applied to Thailand. The paper mainly focuses on the relationship between the global tariffs’ imposition during this US-China trade war as they directly hit several Thai export products as well as the US-China trade war impact on Thai business via dumping goods into Thailand and Thai products intermediately affected by the tariffs imposed on Chinese or US goods. Recently, it has been illustrated by many researchers and economists that trade wars, especially between those waged between such large economies have adverse economic effects on the global economy and international trade. This paper utilizes PESTEL and also causes and consequences analysis to explain the trends of the US or China exports of goods and services to Thailand, Thai intermediate inputs indirectly affected by the tariffs imposed on Chinese or US goods and dumping goods into Thailand as the latter could intensify domestic competition.

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