scholarly journals Sectoral Output Gaps – Estimates for Bulgaria

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-26
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Sectoral Output ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Hp Filter ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Output Gaps ◽  
The Impact

The paper reveals the impact of the output gap of the various sectors on the total output gap in the Bulgarian economy. The HP filter procedure has been applied in order to evaluate the potential output of each sector. The results show different cyclical dynamics between sectors which assumes that the structural change of production is driven not only by cyclical factors but rather by fundamental. As some of the sectoral output gaps appear to be much more volatile than others a shock in one sector can have an impact on the rest of the economy through the cross-sectoral dependencies. The last part of the paper reveals the contribution of the individual sector output gap to the overall economy output gap. Based on that, the sectors determining the cyclical state of the economy over the period 2000-2019 have been identified.

scholarly journals Estimating the Potential Output and Output Gap of Ghana

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
Joseph Atta-Mensah ◽  
Sawuya Nakijoba
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Time Trends ◽  
Linear Time ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Conceptual Tool ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Economic Information ◽  
Hp Filter ◽  
Output Gaps

This paper focuses on the estimation of the potential output of Ghana. Potential output or its derivative the output gap are not observable. However, “potential output” is a powerful conceptual tool that guides analysts and policymakers in gauging whether the current observed economic activity is sustainable and how much of it is greater than or less than potential. Based on Ghanaian GDP annual data from 1960 – 2017, the paper estimates potential output and output gaps using the following methodology: linear time trends, Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter trends, multivariate HP filter trends, and a production function model. The results show that estimates of the potential output and output gaps are model-dependent as estimates vary from one methodology to the other. The paper recommends that policymakers should not mechanically choose a model to estimate output gap. For the avoidance of costly policy mistakes, the choice of the model should be complemented with sound judgement based on a set of pertinent economic information.

DAMPAK VOLATILITAS HARGA MINYAK DI INDONESIA TERHADAP PENYESUAIAN KESEIMBANGAN FISKAL

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-52
Author(s):  
Mahpud Sujai
Keyword(s):  
Linear Trend ◽  
The State ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Budget Cycle ◽  
Actual Output ◽  
The Impact

This paper is intended to analyze the effect of oil price changes on potential output and actual output in the state budget cycle and identifies the output gap which is the difference between potential output and actual output. The research methodology uses a quantitative approach to analyze problems that occur related to the impact of oil price changes to the state budget cycle. Data analysis was carried out through the approach cyclically adjusted fiscal balance with a simplified approach. This research identified that the potential output is likely to continue increasing in line with Indonesia's oil price trends which is continue to rise following the world oil price movements. In calculating the output gap using a linear trend and HP filter, the result is fuctuating depend on the percentage changes in both potential output and actual output. This paper concludes that Indonesian oil price (ICP) has a significant impact on changes in the state budget cycle. If oil prices rise, the output gap between potential output and actual output is greater, and vice versa. This will make the budget vulnerable to shock that occurs as an external infuence.

scholarly journals Estimating the Output Gap for Saudi Arabia

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryadh M. Alkhareif ◽  
William A. Barnett ◽  
Nayef A. Alsadoun
Keyword(s):  
Output Growth ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Production Function Approach ◽  
Potential Gdp ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Potential Output Growth

The objective of this paper is to estimate annual potential output growth and the output gap for the Saudi economy over the period 1980 to 2015, looking at both total output and non-oil output. The focus on the latter is so that the progress in diversifying the economy might be examined and the possible impact of diversification on potential output might be measured. We use three methods for estimating potential output proposed in the macroeconomic literature. The methodologies include the Hodrick-Prescott filter, Kalman filter, and the production function approach. We compare the three over the entire sample and the last five years. Our findings suggest that the output gap (the difference between actual and potential output, as measured by real GDP) is positive on average over the entire period (i.e., actual output has on average exceeded potential); however, the gap has turned negative and has shrunk in recent years, as fiscal expenditures, particularly in infrastructure, have acted to better align actual and potential. Our analysis also indicated that growth in both potential GDP and total factor productivity have accelerated in the 2011-2015 period. In contrast, growth in these factors has slowed in many other countries, particularly the advanced economies. This better performance of the Saudi economy is possibly due to the development of a resilient financial sector in the Saudi economy.

2015 Spillover Report

Policy Papers ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 (43) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Potential Output Growth ◽  
Output Gaps ◽  
The Impact

Many countries around the globe, particularly the systemic advanced economies, face the challenge of closing output gaps and raising potential output growth. Addressing these challenges requires a package of macroeconomic, financial and structural policies that will boost both aggregate demand and aggregate supply, while closing the shortfall between demand and supply. Each element of this package is important and one cannot substitute for the other: easy monetary policy will not raise potential output just as structural reforms will not close the output gap. This report studies the impact on emerging markets and nonsystemic advanced economies from monetary policy actions in systemic advanced economies, with a look also at knock-on effects from the decline in world oil prices.

scholarly journals A Study on the Asymmetry in the Role of Monetary Policy by Using STR model

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 236-243
Author(s):  
Guihuan Zheng ◽  
Yan Shang ◽  
Ying Wu ◽  
Jue Wang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Filter Method ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Steady Growth ◽  
Monetary Shock ◽  
The Asymmetry ◽  
Hp Filter ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe effects of monetary policy on the economy show different with respect to its direction, power and the different economic cycle. That is to say, there exists asymmetry in the role of monetary policy. It’s important to research this asymmetry for monetary policy making and keeping economy’s steady growth In this paper, we aim to study the asymmetry in the role of monetary policy with respect to the different economic cycle. First, monetary shock is estimated by using monetary gap and output gap is calculated via HP filter method. Second, based on the monetary gap and output gap, the asymmetric impacts of monetary gap are measured by STR model. The results show that the impacts of monetary shock on economy are asymmetrical significantly. The impact of monetary policy on economy in upturn stage is larger than its impact in downturn stage.

scholarly journals Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Structural Factors on Economic Activities of Agricultural Enterprises

2017 ◽  
pp. 27-33
Author(s):  
Т. V. Kobylynska
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Performance Indicator ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Legal Form ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Agricultural Enterprises ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

Agricultural enterprises have a critical role in the agrarian market of Ukraine, as they account for nearly 60% of the plant-growing output. Studies of the dynamics and structure of production processes at agricultural enterprises are obviously important and expedient due to the need for operative and sound data on their economic performance, required by a wide range of users. Besides that, whatever is produced in the market environment needs to be demanded by the market and be sold with profit, with due consideration for the requirements on rational land use, to maintain the fertility of lands and prevent from their destruction. The objective of the study is to conduct statistical analysis of the structure and structural change of the agricultural output produced by agricultural enterprises in Ukraine. Negative and positive tendencies in the structural change of operation at agricultural enterprises by organizational and legal form of proprietorship are analyzed. The indicator of production output in constant prices is used to characterize the dynamics of the total output. It is stressed that it is a key performance indicator in agricultural sector, used for both agricultural enterprises and households. The agricultural output is computed by valuating all the categories of products irrespective of the production location and conditions, by the same price This algorithm avoids the impact of variations in regional prices for categories of agricultural products and enables for comparative analysis at national and regional level by main agricultural activity (plant-growing, animal husbandry) and category of agricultural producers. The structure and structural change in the agricultural output by product category and form of proprietorship is analyzed, ft is shown that while in 2012-2013 agricultural enterprises accounted for average 52.4% of the gross agricultural output, in 2014-2016 their average contribution in the output grew by 3.4 percentage points and reached 55.8%.

scholarly journals The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (48) ◽  
pp. 4-15
Author(s):  
Manuel García-Ramos
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Econometric Modeling ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Varying Coefficients ◽  
Time Varying Coefficients ◽  
The Impact

Using quarterly data for Mexico from 1987Q1 to 2018Q4, we measure the impact of output gap on the unemployment rate based on a State-Space model with time-varying coefficients. From an econometric modeling point of view, this model allows asymmetrical interactions between the output gap and unemployment rate. Our principal conclusions are: 1) The long-term equilibrium unemployment rate is equal to 3.06; 2) the unemployment rate does not exhibit hysteresis; 3) when GDP is lower than potential output, the impact of its growth on the unemployment rate is -0.43 percent points; and 4) when GDP is higher than potential output, the impact of its growth on the unemployment rate is close to zero. It implies that the reaction of the unemployment rate to output gap is different when the output gap is increasing from that when the output gap is decreasing; i.e., the output gap does not have the same effect on the unemployment rate over time.

Accent Policy and Accent Modification Enterprises as Potential Indicators of Intercultural Power Relations: A Call for an Updated Research Agenda

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brynne D. Ovalle ◽  
Rahul Chakraborty
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Identity Construction ◽  
Social Theory ◽  
Power Relations ◽  
Linguistic Diversity ◽  
Cultural Organization ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This article has two purposes: (a) to examine the relationship between intercultural power relations and the widespread practice of accent discrimination and (b) to underscore the ramifications of accent discrimination both for the individual and for global society as a whole. First, authors review social theory regarding language and group identity construction, and then go on to integrate more current studies linking accent bias to sociocultural variables. Authors discuss three examples of intercultural accent discrimination in order to illustrate how this link manifests itself in the broader context of international relations (i.e., how accent discrimination is generated in situations of unequal power) and, using a review of current research, assess the consequences of accent discrimination for the individual. Finally, the article highlights the impact that linguistic discrimination is having on linguistic diversity globally, partially using data from the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and partially by offering a potential context for interpreting the emergence of practices that seek to reduce or modify speaker accents.

Investigating the Relationship Between Self-Esteem and Stigma Among Young Adults With History of Suicide Attempts

Crisis ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 265-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meshan Lehmann ◽  
Matthew R. Hilimire ◽  
Lawrence H. Yang ◽  
Bruce G. Link ◽  
Jordan E. DeVylder
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Suicide Attempts ◽  
Self Esteem ◽  
High Risk Population ◽  
High Functioning ◽  
People With Mental Illness ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. Background: Self-esteem is a major contributor to risk for repeated suicide attempts. Prior research has shown that awareness of stigma is associated with reduced self-esteem among people with mental illness. No prior studies have examined the association between self-esteem and stereotype awareness among individuals with past suicide attempts. Aims: To understand the relationship between stereotype awareness and self-esteem among young adults who have and have not attempted suicide. Method: Computerized surveys were administered to college students (N = 637). Linear regression analyses were used to test associations between self-esteem and stereotype awareness, attempt history, and their interaction. Results: There was a significant stereotype awareness by attempt interaction (β = –.74, p = .006) in the regression analysis. The interaction was explained by a stronger negative association between stereotype awareness and self-esteem among individuals with past suicide attempts (β = –.50, p = .013) compared with those without attempts (β = –.09, p = .037). Conclusion: Stigma is associated with lower self-esteem within this high-functioning sample of young adults with histories of suicide attempts. Alleviating the impact of stigma at the individual (clinical) or community (public health) levels may improve self-esteem among this high-risk population, which could potentially influence subsequent suicide risk.

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