scholarly journals Prediction of pork meat prices by selected methods as an element supporting the decision-making process

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Monika Zielińska-Sitkiewicz ◽  
Mariola Chrzanowska
Keyword(s):  
Essential Element ◽  
Graphical Analysis ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Trend Model ◽  
Efficient Management ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Data Portal ◽  
Pork Consumption

Forecasts of economic processes can be determined using various methods, and each of them has its own characteristics and is based on specific assumptions. In case of agriculture, forecasting is an essential element of efficient management of the entire farming process. The pork sector is one of the main agricultural sectors in the world. Pork consumption and supply are the highest among all types of meat, and Poland belongs to the group of large producers. The article analyses the price formation of class E pork, expressed in Euro per 100 kg of carcass, recorded from May 2004 to December 2019. The data comes from the Agri-food data portal. A creeping trend model with segments of linear trends of various lengths and the methodology of building ARIMA models are used to forecast these prices. The accuracy of forecasts is verified by forecasting ex post and ex ante errors, graphical analysis, and backcasting analysis. The study shows that both methods can be used in the prediction of pork prices.

Water Consumption Analysis System Based on Data Mining

2012 ◽  
Vol 241-244 ◽  
pp. 1093-1097
Author(s):  
Ya Yuan Wen ◽  
Wen Ming Huang ◽  
Jie Wu ◽  
Yue Chen ◽  
Ji Qing Song
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Knowledge Discovery In Databases ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Software Application ◽  
Efficient Management ◽  
Supply Industry ◽  
Consumption System ◽  
Analysis System

As knowledge discovery in databases, data mining means a process of extraction potentially useful information from data in databases, which can be applied to information management, query processing, decision making, process control etc. Those are urgently needed to improve efficient management in water supply industry, since water has been recognized by governments worldwide as a scarce resource. In response to such demand, this paper proposes a software application, which designed to accessing to database, operating the data mining, and output the results and charts. We analyzed the different prediction models and designed the water consumption system, which has two functions of analysis of possible correlations between the water consumption and nature of the industry and prediction on future water consumption. As the system built, the paper provides samples and produces the results and analysis.

scholarly journals Sustaining What Is Unsustainable: A Review of Urban Sprawl and Urban Socio-Environmental Policies in North America and Western Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4445 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Bueno-Suárez ◽  
Daniel Coq-Huelva
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Urban Sprawl ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Urban Governance ◽  
Essential Feature ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Way Of Life ◽  
Environmental Consequences ◽  
Ex Post

Urban sprawl and its economic, social, and environmental consequences are central issues for approaching more sustainable forms of life and production. This review provides a broad theoretical exploration of the main features of urban sprawl but also of sustainable urban policies in Western Europe and North America. Urban sprawl can be observed in both continents, as the search for higher standards of economic, social, and environmental sustainability is also an essential feature of urban governance in the last years. Urban sprawl has been slightly weaker in Western Europe, as its are cities generally more compact. Moreover, in Western Europe, urban sprawl has sometimes been confronted with ex-ante preventive policies. However, in North America, urban sprawl from the 1950s has been an essential element of the social ordering and, thus, of the American way of life. In both cases, urban sprawl has generated successive rounds of accumulation of built capital, which is currently managed in sustainable ways essentially through ex-post and palliative measures, that is, trying to “sustain what is unsustainable”. In other words, the idea is to make urban sprawl more sustainable but without altering its main morphological elements.

scholarly journals Contemporary Conditions of Information Security

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 289-295
Author(s):  
Andrzej Gałecki
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Security ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Virtual Space ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Information Manipulation ◽  
Increasing Demand ◽  
Software Information ◽  
State Of Affairs ◽  
The One

Abstract In the age of the information society, determined by the evolution of digital technology, information has become an essential element of the functioning of every human being. Its acquisition, processing and distribution serves to satisfy the key areas of society’s life and constitutes a necessary component of every decision-making process. These days became dominated by the increasing demand for information. The problem of its protection against unwanted obtaining (disclosure) has become a challenge for many scientific communities. This state of affairs has forced us to take a number of steps to ensure the security of useful information, characterized by accuracy, unambiguity, completeness and authenticity. The problem of information security is inseparably linked to the threats present in the cyberspace environment. They are commonly identified with the so-called computer crime, resulting in factors like: infiltration, obtaining passwords and other data used for logging in, identity theft, damage (blocking) of systems and their software. Information manipulation is a completely different and underestimated threat to rational decision-making process. Wherefore, useful information that is characterized by the expected properties, is exposed not only to destruction or unauthorized acquisition, but also to distortion. Rising anxiety about the credibility of the information received in the virtual space and the sources of its transmission forced the need to distinguish the real form from the one that was modified. The presented conditions prompted the author to propose solutions with regard to information security, determined by the difficulty of obtaining it and manipulating it.

Cultivation of Purple Potato, A Rentable Activity in Vegatable Practice

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-23
Author(s):  
Morarita Sinziana Venera
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Correct Diagnosis ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Financial Activity ◽  
Efficient Management ◽  
Preparatory Phase ◽  
One Year

Abstract The achievement of an efficient management in agriculture, as in any branch of the national economy, is possible only by knowing perfectly the evolution of various economic and financial phenomena during one year of activity, their variation from provisions and in dynamics, as well as the correct diagnosis of the period. On the basis of these data, it is possible to establish the measures for correction of the negative aspects observed and the expansion of the positive ones, for the higher profitability of the entire economic and financial activity of the agricultural holdings at the level of competitiveness imposed by the requirements and exigencies of the economy. The management of any agricultural holding (irrespective of its form of ownership) involves an essential component the economic and financial analysis by which it is supervised and evaluated its function in the system. The economic and financial analysis can be used without restriction in the management of the agricultural holding, respectively in solving any current and prospective problem that ultimately affects the level of economic efficiency itself. In this context, the economic and financial analysis finds a well-defined place and role both in the preparatory phase and in the final stage of the decision-making process.

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) in the context of risk management in new product development

2008 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 899-912 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Segismundo ◽  
Paulo Augusto Cauchick Miguel
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Product Development ◽  
New Product Development ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
New Product ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Content Type

PurposeEffectively managing risk is an essential element of successful project management. In this sense, the present study seeks to propose a systematisation of technical risk management through the use of FMEA to optimise the decision making process in new product development (NPD).Design/methodology/approachThe methodological approach adopted in this paper is a case study at an automaker in Brazil. Data were gathered from various sources, mostly participant observation and document analysis of two important NPD programmes. The risk management system was described and its influence on programs development analysed.FindingsResults included a reduction in the number of project and test planning loopings as well as a reduced number of prototypes needed to approve product components. In addition, there was a positive influence on the product development decision‐making process, evidenced by better allocation of resources among projects at the programme.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is limited to a single case study which considers two major NPD programmes. Replications among other units of analysis are needed to further validate current findings.Originality/valueThis paper is one of the few published studies that report and discuss the FMEA within a broad context of risk analysis.

scholarly journals Advances and Gaps in Natech Quantitative Risk Analysis

Processes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Adriana Mesa-Gómez ◽  
Joaquim Casal ◽  
Mauricio Sánchez-Silva ◽  
Felipe Muñoz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Process Safety ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Critical Gap ◽  
Technological Disasters ◽  
Analysis Process

The occurrence of Natech (natural hazard triggering technological disasters) accidents has generated a reflection about the need to manage adequately the risk to people, to the environment, and to the infrastructures subjected to natural events. For this reason, academia and industry have increased research in the process safety area in the last decade, strengthening quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methodologies for Natech events. However, these methodologies have some gaps that must be closed for a better decision-making process. In this communication a comparative analysis of the existing Natech QRA approaches is done, to highlight features and differences and to identify main gaps that should be addressed in future research. It can be mentioned that all the analyzed methodologies, which have been applied to floods, earthquakes, and lightning, are based on an initial one developed in 2007. The critical gap is that in all these methodologies, the final step is the risk calculation based on fatalities, and they do not consider the area-wide as an essential element in the risk analysis process.

scholarly journals The Optimal Multistage Effort and Contract of VC’s Joint Investment

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Meng Wu
Keyword(s):  
Capital Investment ◽  
Stackelberg Game ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Game Model ◽  
Venture Capitalists ◽  
Optimal Contract ◽  
Venture Capital Investment ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante

If the venture project has a great demand of investment, venture entrepreneurs will seek multiple venture capitalists to ensure necessary funding. This paper discusses the decision-making process in the case that multiple venture capitalists invest in a single project. From the beginning of the project till the withdrawal of the investment, the efforts of both parties are long term and dynamic. We consider the Stackelberg game model for venture capital investment in multiple periods. Given the optimal efforts by the entrepreneurs, our results clearly show that as time goes, in every single period entrepreneurs will expect their share of revenue paid to shrink. In other words, they expect a higher ex ante payment and a lower ex post payment. But, in contrast, venture capitalists are expecting exactly the opposite. With a further analysis, we also design an optimal contract in multiple periods. Last but not the least, several issues to be further investigated are proposed as well.

scholarly journals Dengue Cases Prediction in Kupang

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Titik Respati ◽  
Wanti Wanti ◽  
Ricvan Dana Nindrea
Keyword(s):  
Linear Trend ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Breeding Sites ◽  
Trend Model ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Clean Environment ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Program Version

The pandemic of coronavirus (COVID-19) causes another infectious disease such as dengue is neglected in Indonesia. Since the majority of resources, both human and capital, are focusing more on COVID-19, it is still essential to also manage dengue as it is still becoming a threat to the community. This study aims to predict the number of cases of dengue in Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. This study area is in Kupang city, East Nusa Tenggara province, Indonesia. Data regarding monthly dengue reported cases by months from January 2010–December 2019 in Kupang city was collected to describe the temporal patterns of dengue cases. The Box-Jenkins approach is used to fit the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. This model will predict monthly dengue cases for the year 2020 (12 months). Data analyzed using the Minitab program version 18.0. This study shows that seasonality was an essential component for Kupang city, which performed an exploratory analysis of dengue incidence (ln data) for 2010–2019. The linear trend model shows the prediction of dengue cases in 2020 was Yt=36.9−0.131 × t. The forecast tells that dengue will remain high for the whole year. Maintaining a clean environment, reduction of breeding sites, and other protective measurements against dengue transmission are significant to perform. PREDIKSI KASUS DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE DI KUPANGPandemi virus corona (COVID-19) mengakibatkan penyakit menular lain seperti dengue terbengkalai di Indonesia karena mayoritas sumber daya, baik manusia maupun permodalan, lebih berfokus pada COVID-19, sedangkan penanggulangan demam berdarah dengue (DBD) masih menjadi hal yang penting karena masih menjadi ancaman bagi masyarakat. Penelitian ini bertujuan memprediksi jumlah kasus DBD di Kupang, Nusa Tenggara Timur, Indonesia. Wilayah studi ini berada di Kota Kupang, Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur, Indonesia. Data bulanan kasus DBD yang dilaporkan per bulan dari Januari 2010–Desember 2019 di Kota Kupang dikumpulkan untuk menggambarkan pola temporal kasus DBD. Pendekatan Box-Jenkins digunakan untuk menyesuaikan model auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). Model ini akan memprediksi kasus DBD bulanan untuk tahun 2020 (12 bulan). Data dianalisis menggunakan program Minitab versi 18.0. Studi ini menunjukkan bahwa musim merupakan komponen penting bagi Kota Kupang yang melakukan analisis eksplorasi kejadian DBD (dalam data) untuk tahun 2010–2019. Model tren linier menunjukkan prediksi kasus DBD tahun 2020 adalah Yt=36.9−0.131 × t yang memperkirakan DBD akan tetap tinggi sepanjang tahun. Menjaga kebersihan lingkungan, mengurangi tempat berkembang biak, dan tindakan perlindungan lainnya terhadap penularan DBD penting dilakukan.

scholarly journals Structure and use of the medium term projection model in the National Bank of Serbia

2011 ◽  
Vol 56 (188) ◽  
pp. 32-61
Author(s):  
Mirko Djukic ◽  
Jelena Momcilovic ◽  
Ljubica Trajcev
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Projection Model ◽  
Current Form ◽  
The Past ◽  
National Bank

Medium-term projections are an important element of the decision making process in the inflation-targeting regime that the National Bank of Serbia has been implementing for the past several years. The main goal of medium-term projections is to project the policy rate path that will ensure that inflation in the coming period moves close to the targeted inflation rate. The most important tool for medium term projections is a new Keynesian macroeconomic model, which is a set of equations aiming to describe the price formation mechanism in Serbia and the transmission channel of monetary policy to prices. The model is comprised of four main behavioral equations for inflation, exchange rate, output gap, and policy rate, and of a number of side behavioral equations and identities. The model in the current form has been used since the end of 2008 and is subject to regular adjustments and improvements.

scholarly journals Price Parities for Vegetables in Serbia - Analysis and Forecasting

2019 ◽  
Vol 68 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 51-59
Author(s):  
Nebojša Novković ◽  
Ljiljana Drinić ◽  
Šumadinka Mihajlović ◽  
Nataša Vukelić ◽  
Dragan Ivanišević
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Vegetable Crops ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Research Results ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Point Of Reference

Summary The paper analyzes price parities of important vegetable crops in Serbia in relation to wheat, which has always been a point of reference in price formation of other agricultural products. The analysis was carried out by means of descriptive statistics for the period 1994-2017 for the following vegetable crops: potato, bean, tomato, pepper, onion and cabbage. The method used for forecasting of the price parities for the period 2018-2022 is time series analysis, i.e. ARIMA models. The research results showed that the price parities of bean, tomato and pepper will increase: from 9.1 to 12.3 for bean, from 1.9 to 3.5 for tomato and from 2.3 to 3 for pepper. The price parities for potato (1.4) and cabbage (1.4) will remain practically unchanged, while the price parity of onion will decrease to 1.5.

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