scholarly journals The Advantage of Being A Small Country on Economic Growth Spillovers: A Review on Spain and Portugal With ARDL Approach

2022 ◽  
Vol 19 ◽  
pp. 376-385
Author(s):  
Murat Emi̇könel ◽  
Daniel Meyer ◽  
Ayhan Orhan ◽  
Gualter Couto ◽  
Rui Alexandre Castanho
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Term Result ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates Spain's role in Portugal’s economic development and analyzes the assumption that Spain’s import from Portugal is the factor that increases Portugal’s per capita income the most. Apart from these reasons, there are several other motivations to focus on foreign trade between Spain and Portugal. The first is to examine the impact on Portugal of the increases in GDP, exports and imports of Spain, which is the major country and borders Portugal. Second, this study aims to test the growth spread. According to the test results, the economic growth of Spain positively affects the growth of Portugal in the long and short term. In addition, it was concluded that the share of imports has more positive effects than exports in the long run. It shows that the deviation in the variables according to the error correction term result converges to only 85 percent in the t period. The findings are also consistent with previous research supporting the economic integration arguments that emerged as a result of trade relations. In addition, in this direction, the economic and political meetings to be held between the two countries and the actions to be taken as a result of these meetings can create an environment where both countries can win.

Money Supply-Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from a Landlocked Country

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 106-115
Author(s):  
Tilak Singh Mahara
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Special Role ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Background: There is special role of money in the economy due to its astonishing importance as change in the amount of it can have a significant effect on the major macroeconomic variables. Money supply is generally considered as policy-determined phenomenon. Like in all the nations, macroeconomic stability of Nepal also depends on the variation in the quantity of money. Objective: The principle objective of the study is to examine the impact of money supply on the economic growth of Nepal. Methodology: This study applies the ARDL approach to cointegration. Bounds test (F-version) has been carried out to determine the existence of long-run relationship between variables. Results: The empirical results pointed out that there is positive and significant long-term relationship between money supply and real economic growth in Nepal. Causality result reveals that there is unidirectional causality from money supply (M2) to Real GDP. The error correction term is found negative and statistically significant suggesting a correction of short-run disequilibrium within two and a half years. Conclusions: The study concludes that increase in the money supply helps to increase the real economic growth in Nepal. So, money supply and real GDP are associated in the long-run.  Implications: The implication of the study is that, real economic growth in Nepal can be achieved if Nepal Rastra Bank emphasized on monetary policy instruments which help to increase the flow of money supply both in the short and long run.

scholarly journals The Impact of Industrialization, Trade Openness, Financial Development, and Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Indonesia

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Khalid Eltayeb Elfaki ◽  
Rossanto Dwi Handoyo ◽  
Kabiru Hannafi Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study aimed to scrutinize the impact of financial development, energy consumption, industrialization, and trade openness on economic growth in Indonesia over the period 1984–2018. To do so, the study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to estimate the long-run and short-run nexus among the variables. Furthermore, fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic least squares (DOLS), and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) were used for a more robust examination of the empirical findings. The result of cointegration confirms the presence of cointegration among the variables. Findings from the ARDL indicate that industrialization, energy consumption, and financial development (measured by domestic credit) positively influence economic growth in the long run. However, financial development (measured by money supply) and trade openness demonstrate a negative effect on economic growth. The positive nexus among industrialization, financial development, energy consumption, and economic growth explains that these variables were stimulating growth in Indonesia. The error correction term indicates a 68% annual adjustment from any deviation in the previous period’s long-run equilibrium economic growth. These findings provide a strong testimony that industrialization and financial development are key to sustained long-run economic growth in Indonesia.

SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ahmadi Murjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

 Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly. 

Privatisation, Myopia and the Long-Run Provision of Economic Infrastructure in Australia

2008 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Public Economic ◽  
International Financial Crisis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Infrastructure Provision ◽  
Economic Infrastructure ◽  
The Impact

The privatisation of economic infrastructure in Australia that began in the 1980s has continued to be actively pursued by state and federal governments. Evaluations of the effects of the change of policy, ownership, control and regulatory arrangements that have accompanied privatisation and their impact on the longer-term stock of infrastructure and the growth of the economy have received less attention than the immediate privatisation decisions. This article reviews some of the studies that have been carried out to evaluate the impact of privatisation, focusing on long-term impacts on infrastructure provision. In particular, it discusses the myopia created by the emphasis on commercial transactions and managing markets that continues to shape the debate about the provision of infrastructure to meet Australia's economic, environmental and other objectives. Objectives have become even more difficult to achieve as an increasingly extensive and complex regulatory framework is required to manage privatised activities. This adds to costs and limits the potential for the introduction of new initiatives to address pressing problems. The issue is increasingly relevant, given the current perceived shortage of infrastructure and the flow-on effects of the current international financial crisis on Australia. The slow-down in economic growth accompanying the financial crisis is putting pressure on government budgets and threatening to perpetuate the existing policy bias towards short-term solutions, exacerbating the longer run problem of ensuring an adequate supply of public economic infrastructure.

On the Evolutionary Interplay Between Remittances, Financial Development, and Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
pp. 78-96
Author(s):  
Ramzi Fahrani ◽  
Azza Béjaoui
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Stable Economy ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Impact

In this chapter, the authors attempt to investigate the interaction between remittances and financial development and its impact on the economic growth over the period 1980-2016. In this respect, they apply the autoregressive distributed lag bound test (ARDL) approach on cross-country of data series from 1980 to 2016 to study the short- and long-run relationship of remittances and financial development with economic growth. The empirical results show that the direct effects of shipments on growth are significant. On the other hand, the impact of remittances on economic seems to be more significant by means of the financial development. It also shows that these shipments are more efficient in the case of a less developed informal sector, a politically stable economy, and a developed financial structure.

scholarly journals The Impact of FDI on the Economic Growth of Sri Lanka: An ARDL Approach to Co-integration

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha NPG ◽  
Liu Haiyun
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Greenfield Investments ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The impact of foreign direct investment(FDI) on host country economic growth is a debatable issue in the recent economic literature. The purpose of this study is to examine this issue for a country which practiced comparatively more liberal economic policies within the South Asian region over four decades. The ARDL approach to cointegration is applied to identify long-run relationship and short-run dynamics between selected variables for the period of 1978 to 2015 for Sri Lanka. The empirical result confirms the long run relationship between the variables. FDI is positively correlated with economic growth in the short run and long run, but it is not a significant factor for economic growth in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka will have to undertake policy reforms related to FDI in order to attract more greenfield investments to boost economic growth creating new job opportunities and expanding exports in the manufacturing sector. These findings would be an example for other small open economies with similar economic characteristics.

scholarly journals Analysis of Ziswaf, Production Index and Sharia Stock Index on Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-242
Author(s):  
Purbawati Setyaningsih ◽  
Roikhan Mochamad Aziz ◽  
Puji Hadiyati
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Term Model ◽  
Long Run

This study analyzes the influence ZISWAF, Gini ratio, the total export value, the index of industrial production, sharia stock index investment to GDP growth, in the short and long term. Qualitative data were taken from BPS, Baznas, ACT Global Waqf, the FSA from March 2006 until December 2017 using the methodology of The Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of this study indicate that the variable Gini Ratio, Ziswaf, Total exports, Production Index and Sharia Stock Index on GDP economic growth have significant and positive effects in the long term and the short term. Meaning that these variables have a relationship with GDP economic growth. If the variable decreases or slows down-then GDP economic growth also. While total exports have insignificant effects and negative effects on GDP economic growth. The R-square regression value of the long-term model produces a proportion of 96 percent, the short-term model produces a proportion of 97 percent. Both in the long-run and short-run models, the highest coefficient value is the value of the Gini ratio with 4.941522 and 0.348043. All positive coefficients, Gini ratio variables, ziswaf and production index have a significant effect on gdp, total exports and sharia stock indexes do not have a significant effect on gdp both in the long and short-term models. It implies in the future, fiscal economic policy makers to economic growth that opened a lot of employment, by encouraging resource based economic activities of Indonesia's largest export-oriented agriculture and mining. Good Corporate goverment should do so gini ratio of the areas surrounding the economy improved and people kesejahtaeraan increase.

scholarly journals The impacts of public investment on private investment and economic growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Canh Thi Nguyen ◽  
Lua Thi Trinh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Sector ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess both short and long-term influences of public investment on economic growth and test the hypothesis that whether public investment promotes or demotes private investment in Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the approach of autoregressive distributed lag model and Vietnam’s macro data in the period of 1990-2016, to evaluate the short and long-term effects of public investment on economic growth and private investment. The model evaluates the impact of public investment on economic growth and private investment based on the neoclassical theories. The public investment which strongly affects economic growth is also reflected by aggregate supply and demand. Public investment directly impacts aggregate demand as a government expenditure and aggregate supply as a production function (capital factor). Findings The results from this research indicate that public investment in Vietnam in the past period does affect economic growth in the pattern of an inverted-U shape as of Barro (1990), with positive effects mostly occurring from the second year and negative effects of constraining long-term growth. Meanwhile, investment from the private sector, state-owned enterprises, and FDI has positive effects on short-term economic growth and state-owned capital stock has positive impacts on economic growth in both the short and long run. The estimated influence of public investment on private investment also shows a similar inverted-U shape in which public investment have crowding-in private investment short-term but crowding-out in the long run. Practical implications The empirical findings in this study can be used for conducting a more efficient policy in restructuring the state sector investment in Vietnam. Originality/value The main contributions in this study are: to evaluate the impacts of public investment on economic growth and private investment, the authors extracted public investment in infrastructure from aggregate investment of state sector (as previous studies used); the authors also uses state-owned capital stock variable including cumulative public investment and state-owned enterprises investment suggesting that this could control for the different orders of integration between the stock and flow variable and improve the experimental characteristics of the equation to a higher degree.

scholarly journals Liquidity commonality-economic cycle nexus in emerging Asian economies: An ARDL approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 26-39
Author(s):  
Syeda Hina Zaidi ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of liquidity commonality on the economic cycle for 7 emerging Asian economies over a period of 1997-2018, using Autoregressive Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to Cointegration. Gross domestic investment, total consumption expenditure, net trade, and unemployment rate are studied as macro variables in the analysis. The nexus has been discussed both in the short-run and long-run. A significant relationship between economic growth and stock market liquidity commonality is found for large economies including China, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia; however, we found mixed evidence regarding the direction of the relationship for different economies. The aggregate analysis revealed that liquidity commonality has a positive impact on economic growth in the short-run and a negative association in the long-run. As a non-diversifiable risk factor, liquidity co-movement shocks spread the market wide and disrupt the overall functioning of financial markets and eventually affect the economy. For regulators and policymakers and particularly for those in emerging economies, understanding the factors affecting economic cycles and recognizing their dynamics and magnitude is important for policy coordination and market development. Further, the firms in Asian markets operate in legal and regulatory environments distinct from those of firms analyzed in the previous literature. A major knowledge gap pertaining to Asian emerging markets serves as the primary motivation for this study.

scholarly journals Influence of External Parameters on the Dynamic Behavior of Resource-economic-pollution System

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Jiuli Yin ◽  
Jing Huang ◽  
Xinghua Fan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Dynamic Behavior ◽  
Large Population ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Actual System ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Green Lifestyle

This paper discusses a new type of selective-constrained resource-economic-pollution (REP) system. Based on the nonlinear dynamics theory, the dynamic behavior of the new system is discussed. The genetic algorithm is used to identify the quantitative coefficients of the actual system.This paper further analyses the impact of state regulation, economic marketization management and green lifestyle on economic growth. Taking the actual situation into consideration in China, the empirical research is carried out by adjusting the parameters of the actual system. The dynamic evolution of real economic growth is observed which predicts future trends more realistically. The research shows that the introduction of state regulation into the REP system can promote economic growth quickly at a small rate in the short term. However, state regulation has little effect on economic growth in the long run. The impact of economic marketization management on the economy is moderate. A short-term, small-scale green lifestyle has little impact on system and economic growth because of China’s large population base.

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