scholarly journals A DYNAMIC RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING BASED ON FUZZY ANP FOR SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

Aviation ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 143-155
Author(s):  
Masoud Rezaei ◽  
Naimeh Borjalilu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Fuzzy Anp ◽  
New Model ◽  
The Impact

Risk assessment in large organizations with extensive operational domains has been a challenging issue. Employing an efficient method along with realistic pair comparisons, applying subjective inferences of organization experts, and purging the intrinsic ambiguity of inferences, are not reflected in current airlines' safety management. Traditional two-dimensional risk assessment for risk management of safety hazards, however, is no longer sufficient to comply with this complexity. A new model for risk management and a novel formula for risk index calculation, based on a fuzzy approach, are presented in this study. In this new model, unlike in the traditional approach, the latent aftermath of safety reports, especially those which affect the continuity of the business, is also taken into account. In this model, along with the definition of a new structure for risk management, risk analysis should be restructured. To that end, a two-dimensional classic risk formula was replaced with three-dimensional (nonlinear) exponential ones, considering “the impact on the business” as a source of risk and hazard. For measuring the safety risk using the Fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method, considering experts' opinions, three criteria in four different operational fields were developed. This method employs a Fuzzy ANP to help quantify judgments, make qualitative judgments in the traditional method, and weigh the priority of elements contributing to risk. Also, it provides a tool for top-level as well as expert level management to monitor safety more precisely, monitor the safety level within their departments or organizations, set quantitative safety goals and provide feedback for improvement as well as find the most critical areas with the least cost. In this study, an airline has been selected as a case study for the risk assessment of reports based on the new model.

scholarly journals Current and planned research for managing the fruit fly threat to New Zealand

2019 ◽  
Vol 72 ◽  
pp. 279
Author(s):  
David A.J. Teulon ◽  
John M. Kean ◽  
Karen F. Armstrong
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Fruit Fly ◽  
Fruit Flies ◽  
Bactrocera Tryoni ◽  
The World ◽  
Increasing Risk ◽  
Management Diagnostics ◽  
The Impact

Fruit flies (Family Tephritidae), in particular the Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni; QFF), areone of the biggest biosecurity risks for New Zealand horticulture. New Zealand has one of the bestscience-based biosecurity systems in the world, based on years of experience and sound research. Theintroduction of fruit flies to New Zealand is now well managed in commercial fruit imports, but the riskis rising from growing trade and travel and, in the case of QFF, climatic adaptation and spread to moresouthern localities. Smarter solutions are continually needed to manage this increasing risk, and to dealwith such pests when they arrive. We present a brief summary of current and anticipated research aimedat reducing the likelihood of entry into New Zealand and/or minimising the impact for the fruit flyspecies of greatest threat to New Zealand. Research spans risk assessment, pathway risk management,diagnostics, surveillance and eradication.

ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT: A PROPOSED SCHEME

1997 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 714
Author(s):  
H.B. Goff ◽  
R.K. Steedman
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Environmental Risk ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Environmental Risk Management ◽  
The Impact

Environmental risk assessment is becoming an increasingly important factor in the assessment process for new projects. The oil and gas industry is familiar with assessing and managing risks from a wide range of sources. In particular, risk assessment and management is fundamental to the evaluation and implementation of Safety cases. Risk assessment is essential in valuing exploration acreage. Various industry and government risk management standards and criteria have been developed for public and occupational health and safety.This paper examines the extension of these approaches to environmental risk management for the offshore oil and gas industry and proposes a conceptual management scheme.We regard risk as the probability of an event occurring and the consequences of that event. The risk is classified into four categories, namely:primary risk, which relates to the mechanical oilfield equipment;secondary risk, which relates to the natural transport processes. For example dispersion of oil in the water column and surrounding sea;the tertiary risk, which relates to the impact on some defined part of the physical, biological or social environment; andthe quaternary risk, which relates to the recovery of the environment from any impact.Generally the methods of quantitatively analysing primary and secondary risks are well known, while there remains considerable uncertainty surrounding the tertiary and quaternary risk and they are at best qualitative only. An example of the method is applied to coral reef and other sensitive areas which may be at risk from oil spills.This risk management scheme should assist both operators and regulators in considering complex environmental problems which have an inherent uncertainty. It also proves a systematic approach on which sound environmental decisions can be taken and further research and analysis based. Perceived risk is recognised, but the management of this particular issue is not dealt with.

Limits to natural disasters management: the influence of human behavior

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeroen Aerts
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Human Behavior ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Behavioral Adaptation ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
The Impact

<p>Despite billions of dollars of investments in disaster risk reduction (DRR), data over the period 1994- 2013 show natural disasters caused 1.35 million lives. Science respond with more timely and accurate information on the dynamics of risk and vulnerability of natural hazards, such as floods. This information is essential for designing and implementing effective climate change adaptation and DRR policies. However, how much do we really know about how the main agents in DRR (individuals, businesses, government, NGO) use this data? How do agents behave before, during, and after a disaster, since this can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. Since existing risk assessment methods rarely include this critical ‘behavioral adaptation’ factor, significant progress has been made in the scientific community to address human adaptation activities (development of flood protection, reservoir operations, land management practices) in physically based risk models.</p><p>This presentation gives an historic overview of the most important developments in DRR science for flood risk. Traditional risk methods integrate vulnerability and adaptation using a ‘top- down’ scenario approach, where climate change, socio economic trends and adaptation are treated as external forcing to a physically based risk model (e.g. hydrological or storm surge model). Vulnerability research has made significant steps in identifying the relevant vulnerability indicators, but has not yet provided the necessary tools to dynamically integrate vulnerability in flood risk models.</p><p>However, recent research show novel methods to integrate human adaptive behavior with flood risk models. By integrating behavioral adaptation dynamics in Agent Based Risk Models, may lead to a more realistic characterization of the risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk management strategies and investments. With these improved methods, it is also shown that in the coming decades, human behavior is an important driver to flood risk projections as compared to other drivers, such as climate change. This presentation shows how these recent innovations for flood risk assessment provides novel insight for flood risk management policies.</p>

scholarly journals Risk Management of Credit Card Payment Gateway using Octave Allegro Methodology At Electronic Payment Provider Institution

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 11831-11838
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Credit Card ◽  
Group Discussion ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Internet Technology ◽  
Card Payment ◽  
Financial Transactions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Payment Gateway

The use of internet technology is growing very fast which is driving the development of businesses in Indonesia, one of which is in the eCommerce sector. To support payment transactions conducted by e-commerce, in conducting this business, it is necessary to collaborate with business partner engaged in the payment gateways sector. Company partner engaged in the payment gateways sector to provide solutions to electronic financial transactions where one product is a credit card payment gateways. The purpose of this research is to make a risk assessment and risk management for audit certification credit card payment gateway Company. Risk assessment can help to know what are the risks that may occur, how big the impact of these risks, as well as recommendations related control measures must be carried out if the impact of these risks occur. This research using OCTAVE Allegro methodology to identify and evaluate information security risks credit card payment gateway. This research is qualitative research consisting of observation, conducting group discussion with the respondents. The respondend of this research are VP Development and Service Provisioning, VP Operation and Infrastructure, Manager Front End 1, Manager Back End 2, and Senior Programmer. Results of this research are 9 critical information assets in credit card payment gateway in COMPANY, such as : Card Holder Data & Customer Credential, Data Center, Physical Devices, Logical Storage, Logical Network, Supporting Software, Core Application, Encryption Key, and Human Resources. There are 21 risks that may occur during in credit card payment gateway. From 21 risks that were identified, obtained 15 risks are defer, 3 risks to be acceptable, and 3 risks should be mitigate.

scholarly journals Toolset for financial risk strategic assessment in corporations based on stochastic modeling

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (28) ◽  
pp. 451-464
Author(s):  
Viktoriya Manuylenko ◽  
Denis Ryzin ◽  
Natalia Gryzunova ◽  
Olga Bigday ◽  
Olga Mandrytsa
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Financial Leverage ◽  
Financial Risk Management ◽  
Environment Factors ◽  
Target Values ◽  
The Impact

The study substantiates the need to develop and test a model for assessment of strategic financial risk level in corporations. It implies modeling for two indicators: relative (financial leverage) and absolute (external capital of indicators). The model should also take into account influence of emergent environment factors and most stakeholder groups’ interests when building scenarios for their behaviors in the financial markets –Implementation of the model allows establishing financial risk target values considering deviation calculations between the indicators’ modeled and actual values simultaneously determining both tactical and strategic guidelines for Financial Risk Management Policy in corporations, which should involve stakeholders into financial risk-taking process. The model implementation also should be the basis for development and improvement of risk-based forecasting tools, business planning and stress testing. The toolkit for assessing level of current and strategic financial risks in corporations based on simulation modeling was developed and implemented with attraction of general scientific and special methods. Direct results of the study are as follows: in theoretical block of the research – essentially, main attributes of financial risks classification for corporations are identified; they are recognized by time as retrospective, current and strategic financial risks, and correct classification of the latter allows their identification, evaluation and regulation; in practical block of the research – evaluation of financial risk in corporations reveals that the risk apart from other internal factors is highly affected by the level of financial leverage, where its high value increases financial risk; still, corporations do not take into account the influence of environmental factors on its level; the role of tax risk as a part of financial risk is not significant, still it is unfortunate that the Russian legislation system allows double taxation on income tax in the form of dividends, and dividend policy of Russian corporations is unstable; in methodological block of the research –financial risk assessment model for corporations was developed and tested on a platform of a special new software product that determines the target level of financial risk; the model differs from standard approaches to financial risk assessment as it carries strategic forecasting nature and takes into account the impact of emergent environment factors; thus it promotes new areas in strategic financial risk management.

scholarly journals An integrated risk index accounting for epistemic uncertainty in probability risk assessment

2020 ◽  
pp. 1748006X2096895
Author(s):  
Zhiguo Zeng ◽  
Tasneem Bani-Mustafa ◽  
Roger Flage ◽  
Enrico Zio
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Maturity Model ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Building Process ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we present an integrated framework for quantifying epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment. Three types of epistemic uncertainty, that is, completeness, structural and parametric uncertainties, are considered. A maturity model is developed to evaluate the management of these epistemic uncertainties in the model building process. The impact of epistemic uncertainty on the result of the risk assessment is, then, estimated based on the developed maturity model. Then, an integrated risk index is defined to reflect the epistemic uncertainty in the risk assessment results. An indifference method is developed to evaluate the index based on the maturity of epistemic uncertainty management. A case study concerning a nuclear power plant is shown to demonstrate the applicability of the overall modelling framework.

Safety management of tourist services based on insurance risk assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 90 ◽  
pp. 102-115
Author(s):  
S. Yu. Butuzov ◽  
◽  
A. V. Kryuchkov ◽  
E. B. Tyutikova ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Weighted Graph ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Discrete Mathematics ◽  
Insurance Risk ◽  
Difficult Situation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insured Event

Introduction. Employees of Emercom of Russia often participate in extreme tourism during their vacations, which helps to maintain their professional physical fitness. They are also attracted to help tourist groups that find themselves in a difficult situation in nature in a particular destination. Participation in extreme tourism is associated with the risk of injury. A general approach to the assessment of the impact of the management of the safety of tourist services in the instances associated with extreme tourism on insurance risks is presented. The purpose of the article is to create models for assessing the risks of extreme recreation. To do this, it is necessary to analyze the routes of extreme recreation in destinations from a mathematical point of view, and, based on this, to propose a number of management measures related, among other things, to insurance. Research methods are based on the use of the theory of discrete mathematics in the construction of a weighted graph describing the risks on the routes of tourists. The model allows us to quantify the risks on individual routes and, therefore, to build a target criterion for supporting the management of the safety of services in extreme tourism in a particular destination. Results and discussion. Building a graph of the route of a tourist group allows you to identify the least dangerous routes of tourist groups. This approach allows insurance companies to solve the problem of calculating the optimal and adequate amount of payments in the event of an insured event, as well as to reduce uncertainty in the actions of rescue units of Emercom of Russia. Conclusions. The methods of managing the safety of providing tourist services presented in the article reduce the probability of an insured event. Key words: insurance risk assessment, management of tourist services, tourist safety, security methods.

The Shutdown PSA Model of the TQNPP CANDU Reactor and the Outage Risk Management

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaochun Peng ◽  
Qiang Fu ◽  
Yu Han ◽  
Yong Cao
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Low Power ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Nuclear Safety ◽  
Management Guideline ◽  
Working Plan ◽  
Assessment Result

This paper presents the characteristic of Outage Nuclear Safety Management Guideline (ONSMG) for Qinshan CANDU plant and the introduction of shutdown and low-power PSA (SPSA) of TQNPP. The SPSA model is used to assess the outage configuration risk of OT109. The result and its risk insight are discussed about the two different outage working plan. In conclusion, the risk of nuclear safety and the economic are discussed based on the risk assessment result.

Applying Fuzzy Set in Elevator Safety Management Evaluation Method

2013 ◽  
Vol 710 ◽  
pp. 712-715
Author(s):  
Bai Lin Liu ◽  
Hui Yun Zou ◽  
Xi Chen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
System Management ◽  
Assessment And Evaluation ◽  
Management Evaluation ◽  
Corrective Measures ◽  
Human Effects

In order to solve low accuracy, human effects and complexity in elevator safety management evaluation, a method based on machine learning was proposed. The method adopts safety checklist to collect data of elevator safety related conditions, comprehensively considering the importance and influence of every factor, which influences the safety on the basis of the safety checklist analysis and fuzzy set. To complete the process of the risk assessment and evaluation, we use machine learning combined with maintenance knowledge of evaluation, which provide users with comprehensive and effective corrective measures and suggestions. Applications show that the method can find potential leak of elevator system management.

scholarly journals Features of Investment Risk Analysis and Assessment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nargiza Shaislamova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Risk Management Methodology ◽  
Break Even Point

The article examines the essence of the analysis and assessment of the risks of investment projects in the innovative development of the country's economy. One of the most important tasks for investors in the context of the coronavirus crisis is the analysis, assessment and effective management of risks that can affect investment projects before investing. And also, the investor must identify the factors that negatively affect the project and develop measures to reduce their negative impact. Based on the above, it can be said that improving the risk management methodology and evaluating investment projects based on modern and best practices has become one of the urgent tasks. In this article, the author explains the essence of risk management and presents the main stages of risk management developed by foreign and domestic economists, and also expresses her own opinion about the stages of risk management of investment projects in the form of a scheme. The article also presents the content of the methods of risk analysis that are frequently used in practice. In particular, the author shows the essence of methods for assessing investment risks, such as Break-even point, the sensitivity analysis of the project, the method of Scenarios, the method for assessing the sustainability of the project, Expert evaluation method, Analogy method, and others. We can identify two aims of research: 1) to study the stages of investment risk management, developed by foreign and domestic scientists, and, on their basis, to propose the stages of risk management, developed by the author; 2) to study various methods of risk assessment, which are a key part of investment risk management, and develop proposals for their application in Uzbekistan. To achieve the objectives of the study, the following tasks were identified:  explain the content of the economic categories “risk” and “investment risk”;  explain the content of investment risk management;  study of the process (stages) of investment risk management, developed by foreign and domestic economists;  development by the author of the stages of the investment risk management process;  study and outline methods for assessing the risks of investment projects;  development of recommendations on the application of risk assessment methods in Uzbekistan. Subject of research: methods for assessing the risks of investment projects. Information sources for writing the research was books and articles by foreign and domestic economists.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document