scholarly journals Infection spread simulation technology in a mixed state of multi variant viruses

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-25
Author(s):  
Makoto Koizumi ◽  
◽  
Motoaki Utamura ◽  
Seiichi Kirikami ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mixed State ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Infection Control Measure ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Spread Of Infection ◽  
Infection Spread

<abstract> <p>ATLM (Apparent Time Lag Model) was extended to simulate the spread of infection in a mixed state of the variant virus and original wild type. It is applied to the 4th wave of infection spread in Tokyo, and (1) the 4th wave bottoms out near the end of the state of emergency, and the number of infected people increases again. (2) The rate of increase will be mainly by d strain (L452R) virus, while the increase by a strain (N501Y) virus will be suppressed. (3) It is anticipated that the infection will spread during the Olympic Games. (4) When variant viruses compete, the infection of highly infectious virus rises sharply while the infection by weakly infectious ones has converged. (5) It is effective as an infection control measure to find an infected person early and shorten the period from infection to quarantine by PCR test or antigen test as a measure other than the vaccine.</p> </abstract>

scholarly journals Infection spread simulation technology in a mixed state of multi valiant viruses

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Makoto Koizumi ◽  
Motoaki Utamura ◽  
Seiichi Kirikami
Keyword(s):  
Mixed State ◽  
Infectious Virus ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Infection Control Measure ◽  
Mutant Virus ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Spread Of Infection ◽  
Infection Spread

ATLM was extended to simulate the spread of infection in a mixed state of mutant virus and conventional virus. It is applied to the 4th wave of infection spread in Tokyo, and (1) the 4th wave bottoms out near the end of the state of emergency, and the number of infected people increases again. (2) The rate of increase will be mainly by L452R virus, while the increase by N501Y virus will be suppressed. (3) It is anticipated that the infection will spread during the Olympic Games. (4) When mutant virus competes, the infection of highly infectious virus rises sharply while the infection by weakly infectious ones has converged. (5) It is effective as an infection control measure to find an infected person early and shorten the period from infection to quarantine by PCR test or antigen test as a measure other than vaccine.

scholarly journals Knowledge of final-year medical students at the University of the Free State of hand hygiene as a basic infection control measure

2018 ◽  
Vol 60 (3) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
M. Bouwer ◽  
S. Labuschagne ◽  
S. Spamer ◽  
C. Vermaak ◽  
L-M. Zietsman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Students ◽  
Hand Hygiene ◽  
Infection Control ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Infection Control Measure ◽  
Free State ◽  
Basic Knowledge ◽  
Average Score ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Spread Of Infection

Background: One of the main reasons for the spread of infection in the healthcare environment is inadequate hand hygiene. Poor knowledge of hand hygiene techniques leads to poor compliance. This study aimed to determine Free State University finalyear medical students’ knowledge of hand hygiene as a basic infection control measure. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study using self-administered anonymous questionnaires. The questions and memorandum were based on an extensive literature review with WHO documentation on the guidelines for hand hygiene in health care. Each participant received an envelope with an optical computer card, questionnaire and information document during a pre-arranged class. Participants recorded their answers on the card by shading in the squares corresponding to their responses.Results: The average score of the 107 participants was 46.8% (range 10.1–73.6%). Participants who felt that they had basic knowledge of hand hygiene (n = 32, 30.5%) had an average score of 47.9%. Participants with a self-reported knowledge level of more than basic but less than advanced (n = 56, 53.3%) had an average score of 44.9% while those who reported advanced knowledge (n = 17, 16.2%) had an average score of 50.8%. Three-quarters (n = 81, 77.1%) felt that their training was sufficient. Only 53.3% knew that the most important way to prevent the spread of infection is good hand hygiene. Only 10.5% of the students knew that hands should not be rinsed with water after using alcohol-based sanitisers.Conclusion: Medical students have a poor level of knowledge regarding hand hygiene as a basic measure of infection control.

A distributed vaporization time-lag model for gas turbine combustor dynamics

1992 ◽  
Author(s):  
JAYESH MEHTA ◽  
P. MUNGUR ◽  
W. DODDS ◽  
L. DODGE
Keyword(s):  
Gas Turbine ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Gas Turbine Combustor ◽  
Lag Model

Japanese-language videos on YouTube as a source of public health information for COVID-19 (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takeo Yasu
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Information ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
The State ◽  
Video Content ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Public Health Information ◽  
Youtube Videos ◽  
Spread Of Infection

BACKGROUND Serious public health problems, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can cause an infodemic. Sources of information that may cause an infodemic include social networking services; YouTube, which consists of content created and uploaded by individuals, is one such source. OBJECTIVE To survey the content and changes in YouTube videos that present public health information about COVID-19 in Japan. METHODS We surveyed YouTube content regarding public health information pertaining to COVID-19 in Japan. YouTube searches were performed on March 6, 2020 (before the state of emergency), April 14 (during the state of emergency), and May 27 (after the state of emergency was lifted), with 136, 113, and 140 sample videos evaluated, respectively. The main outcome measures were: (1) The total number of views for each video, (2) video content, and (3) the usefulness of the video. RESULTS In the 100 most viewed YouTube videos during the three periods, the number of videos on public health information in March was significantly higher than in May (p = .02). Of the 331 unique videos, 9.1% (n = 30) were released by healthcare professionals. Useful videos providing public health information about the prevention of the spread of infection comprised only 13.0% of the sample but were viewed significantly more often than not useful videos (p = .006). CONCLUSIONS Individuals need to take care when obtaining information from YouTube before or early in a pandemic, during which time scientific evidence is scarce.

scholarly journals INFECTION CONTROL PRACTICES

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (12) ◽  
pp. 1933-1936
Author(s):  
Imran Samejo ◽  
Gotam Das ◽  
Muhammad Haseeb Rana ◽  
Muhammad Waqar Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Infection Control ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Financial Burden ◽  
Infection Control Measure ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Laboratory Work ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Social ◽  
B Virus ◽  
Study Setting

Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the knowledge and infection control practices among private dental laboratories in Karachi. Study Design: Cross sectional study. Setting: Private Dental Laboratories of Karachi. Period: 01st September 2017 to 01st February 2018. Materials and Methods: A pre structured questionnaire comprised of 09 questions regarding infection control was used to collect the data. A total 35 questionnaires were given to dental technicians. 29 questionnaires were obtained out of 35 distributed (response rate: 83%). Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 17.0 was used for data analysis. Results: Gloves were not worn by 76% of respondents while receiving the clinical items. Protective eyeglasses and protective face shield were not worn by 38% and 13% of respondents respectively during laboratory work. Few 13% of respondents were vaccinated against the hepatitis b virus. Clinical items were disinfected by 17% of respondents if not disinfected by dental clinic. Laboratory work was not disinfected by 90% of respondents before sending to clinic. Pumice slurry and water of pressure pot were changed by 6% and 6% respectively. Regarding infection control measure impose financial burden, 83% of respondents were agreed. Conclusion: The knowledge and practices of infection control were poor and below acceptable standards in private dental laboratories.

scholarly journals The New Normal and Covid-19 in Serbia from February to May 2020.

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bojan Žikić ◽  
Mladen Stajić ◽  
Marko Pišev
Keyword(s):  
Everyday Life ◽  
The State ◽  
Critical Event ◽  
Way Of Life ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
New Normal ◽  
Ordinary Life ◽  
Spread Of Infection ◽  
Cultural Reality ◽  
The Given

The situation caused by the appearance of Covid-19 can be viewed as a critical event: typologically, it is an unprecedented event, which requires and shapes new forms of historical action hitherto unknown in the given context. Critical events serve as strong value and emotional landmarks in the cultural cognition of each social environment, and form the basis for a meaningful determination towards other events. Using material collected primarily from the online versions of electronic and printed media, we consider how the reality they presented is shaped through the news through the statements of politicians and medical doctors in Serbia. We trace how the narrative transformation of socio-cultural reality took place from the time before the of Covid-19 outbreak in our country to the time immediately after the lifting of the state of emergency declared due to that infection. The premise of all that is being done to tackle the infection is not a purpose in itself, but aims to enable a return to the life we were accustomed to before the outbreak of the epidemic. Covid-19 destabilizes our everyday life – a life that consists of work or study, use of free time, socializing etc. Such everyday life is a reference point of "normalcy". Socio-cultural normalcy refers to all that is understood as a normal and undisturbed course of everyday life. The appearance of Covid-19 gave rise to the notion of the "new normal", that is, a course of everyday life that is similar to normal, ordinary life, but with adherence to measures aimed at preventing the spread of infection by the authorities. In the paper we deal with the period that begins just before the outbreak of Covid-19 in our country, and ends with the period after the lifting of the state of emergency, to show the discursively produced picture of social reality in which the concept of the "new normal" serves as a cultural cognitive tool for understanding a situation in which one has to live with Covid-19 in order to one day be able to return to the way of life that existed before it.

scholarly journals An SEIR Model for Assessment of Current COVID-19 Pandemic Situation in the UK

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peiliang Sun ◽  
Kang Li
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Lag Effect ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Specific Symptoms ◽  
Limited Testing

AbstractThe ongoing COVID-19 pandemic spread to the UK in early 2020 with the first few cases being identified in late January. A rapid increase in confirmed cases started in March, and the number of infected people is however unknown, largely due to the rather limited testing scale. A number of reports published so far reveal that the COVID-19 has long incubation period, high fatality ratio and non-specific symptoms, making this novel coronavirus far different from common seasonal influenza. In this note, we present a modified SEIR model which takes into account the time lag effect and probability distribution of model states. Based on the proposed model, it is estimated that the actual total number of infected people by 1 April in the UK might have already exceeded 610,000. Average fatality rates under different assumptions at the beginning of April 2020 are also estimated. Our model also reveals that the R0 value is between 7.5–9 which is much larger than most of the previously reported values. The proposed model has a potential to be used for assessing future epidemic situations under different intervention strategies.

scholarly journals Climate-sensitive radial increment model of Norway spruce in Tyrol based on a distributed lag model with penalized splines for year-ring time series

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (8) ◽  
pp. 930-941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arne Nothdurft ◽  
Sonja Vospernik
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Norway Spruce ◽  
High Temperatures ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Penalized Regression ◽  
Penalized Splines ◽  
Radial Increment ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Lag Model

A novel methodological framework is presented for climate-sensitive modeling of annual radial stem increment using year-ring width time series. The approach is based on a generalized additive model with penalized regression splines together with a distributed time lag model taking into account smooth nonlinear effects of a series of monthly temperature and precipitation values, as well as their interactions. Climate effects are also assumed to vary smoothly with time lag. The model framework enables both the detrending of the individual time series and the regression modeling to be performed simultaneously in a single model step. The approach is applied to year-ring width time series of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) trees in Tyrol, Austria. The marginal response curves show that tree growth is mainly promoted by high temperatures in late spring and early summer and by precipitation in fall and winter. Summer drought does not have a negative influence on the current year’s radial increment; however, when it is associated with high temperatures, it lowers the increment in the subsequent growth period. Higher winter precipitation in conjunction with lower temperatures has a positive effect. A significant non-climate related long-term growth trend is demonstrated, probably reflecting NOx and SO2 emission trends in Austria.

A Lag Effect of IT Investment on Firm Performance

2011 ◽  
pp. 246-273
Author(s):  
Sangho Lee ◽  
Soung Hie Kim
Keyword(s):  
Firm Performance ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
It Investment ◽  
Performance Factors ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Lag Effect ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Information Intensity ◽  
High Information

This chapter discusses the positive effects of IT investment on firm financial performance when a distinct range of characteristics is examined. The relationship between IT investment and firm performance considering the information intensity of the industry is explored using a distributed lag model. Findings indicate both a positive effect and a positive lag effect of IT investment. The effects of IT investment in the high information-intensive industry are significantly larger than in the low information-intensive industry. Furthermore, a lagged effect of IT investment is larger than an immediate effect, regardless of the information intensity of the industry. We conclude that firms in the high information-intensive industry need to be more cognizant of performance factors when investing in IT investment than in the low information-intensive industry. Moreover, it is necessary to consider the time lag between IT investment and firm performance.

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