Do Financial Investment Decisions Affect Economic Development?

2019 ◽  
pp. 168-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serhat Yüksel ◽  
Pınar Tuğçe Kavak
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Mortgage Loans ◽  
Financial Investment ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Analysis Process

The purpose of this chapter is to determine whether mortgage loans have an influence on economic growth in Turkey. In this context, as the variable of the mortgage, the ratio of the mortgage loans to the total loans is taken into consideration. Also, the increase ratio in GDP is used as an economic growth variable. In addition to this situation, quarterly data of these variables for the periods between 2005:1 and 2017:3 is examined. On the other hand, Engle-Granger cointegration analysis is considered in this study in order to reach this objective. In the analysis process, firstly, the variables are subjected to the ADF unit root test, and it is understood that both variables become stationary by taking first order differences. It is identified that there is a long-term relationship between mortgage loans and economic growth in Turkey. By considering these results, it is recommended to encourage mortgage loans in order to increase economic growth.

scholarly journals DAMPAK TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA KREDIT, INFLASI DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI TERHADAP JUMLAH KREDIT BANK UMUM SWASTA NASIONAL YANG DISALURKAN DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-44
Author(s):  
Muhammad Rizki Saputra ◽  
Ryan Juminta Anward ◽  
Rizali Rizali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Statistical Test ◽  
Economic Variable ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Private Banks ◽  
Econometric Technique

The objective of this research is to (1) analyse the influence of loan interest rate, inflation and economic growth to loans disbursed by national private banks in Indonesia. This research uses quarterly data for ten years from 2007 to 2016. The methodology used in this research is time series econometric technique which is the unit root test, statistical test and classical assumption test. The result of this research shows that loan interest rate and inflation variable have a negative correlation and statistically is not significant to loans that disbursed by national private banks in Indonesia. While Indonesian economic growth and global economic variable have a positive correlation and statistically is significant to loans that disbursed by national private banks in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Cointegration analysis between economic growth and the number of granted patents based on the example of the German economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (9) ◽  
pp. 87-99
Author(s):  
Janusz Myszczyszyn
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
German Economy ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The main purpose of the article was to use the Granger cointegration test to confirm the long-term relationship between the level of economic growth in Germany and the number of granted patents, including the so-called economically valuable patents. The empirical analysis was based on available statistical data on the level of economic growth (seven time series) and the number of patents received and valuable patents in the period 1872-1913. In addition to estimates of Pearson’s correlation coefficients, tests for checking the unit root: ADF and KPSS, were used. They indicated that all the analysed time series are integrated in the first stage I(1), which enabled the use of the Engle-Granger cointegration test. The obtained research results did not confirm the long-term correlation between the level of economic growth in Germany and the number of granted patents, including the so-called economically valuable patents.

scholarly journals Does Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from Albania

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Sam Hobbs ◽  
Dimitrios Paparas ◽  
Mostafa E. AboElsoud
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Series Data

Albania has experienced a rapid transition from a centrally planned economy to a mixed economy since the fall of communism in 1989. Policy changes, trade liberalization, and privatization have come about at a rapid pace, allowing foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade to become key components of Albania’s economy. Against this backdrop, this study investigates the relationships among FDI, trade, and economic growth in Albania. Annual time-series data were obtained from the World Bank. Then, the following econometric tests were performed on the variables representing FDI inflows, exports, and GDP as proxies for FDI, trade, and economic growth: the unit root test; the unit root test with a structural break; Johansen cointegration analysis; the error correction model; and the Granger causality test. The results revealed a long-term relationship between FDI, trade, and economic growth. The Granger causality tests found unidirectional causality. Economic growth brought about exports and FDI in the short term but not vice versa. In conclusion, policymakers need to design policies that promote technology-based, export-promoting FDI to meet the needs of the economy and develop specialized sectors that are competitive in the global market. Furthermore, the salient takeaway is that the penetration of export markets should be promoted as much as the furtherance of FDI.

scholarly journals VECM and Variance Decomposition: An Application to the Consumption-Wealth Ratio

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 188
Author(s):  
Francois De Paul Silatchom
Keyword(s):  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Decomposition Technique ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Contemporaneous Correlation ◽  
Tangible Assets ◽  
Permanent Shocks ◽  
Transitory Variance

This study uses a variance decomposition technique, which doesn’t rely on the underlying economic theory, in order to implement a permanent-transitory variance decomposition of the consumption-wealth ratio. We break down the wealth variable into financial assets, tangible assets, and human assets. Using quarterly data over the last six decades, we rely on cointegration analysis as the framework for the study, in order to assess the long-term interrelation between consumption shocks, and those from each of the above mentioned wealth components. Our results indicate that wealth components tend to exhibit permanent shocks, while consumption shocks appear to be transitory. Moreover, the results also indicate a low contemporaneous correlation between shocks in consumption and the ones from financial assets, and also between shocks in consumption and the ones from tangible assets. In addition, the variance decomposition of consumption shocks seems to indicate that, over the time a significantly increasing proportion of consumption shocks is explained by financial assets.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Tax Revenue and Economic Growth in Nepal: A Co-integration Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-36
Author(s):  
Gautam Maharjan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The main objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between tax revenue and economic growth in Nepal. The 43 years' annual time series data from 1974/75 to 2016/17 of GDP, tax revenue and nontax revenue have been used to test the causal relationship of the variables. A unit root test, Engle-Granger’s co-integration and Error Correction Model have been applied for the data analysis. The variables have been found stationary after first differencing I(1) when Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test is employed. From Engel-Granger test, it has been found that the variables are co-integrated. The short-term coefficients are not significant, however error correction term (ECT) is significant and contains a negative sign in the error correction model (ECM). It validates the ECM model. The ECT has shown that the annual speed of adjustment from disequilibrium to equilibrium is 34.3 percent. So far as the relationship is concerned, there is a long run relationship between tax revenue and economic growth in Nepal controlling the non-tax revenue. The impact of tax revenue on economic growth could be a good impetus for the policy maker and planner to increase the collection of revenue for the country.

Mean reverting leverage policy in China: theory and evidence from industrial and sectorial level unit root analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 290-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajid ur Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Target Level ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Chinese Firms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Leverage Ratio ◽  
Stationary Behavior

Purpose This study aims to apply unit root test to investigate the behavior of Chinese firms toward their leverage policy. The study is based on two influential and competing theories of capital structure. Design/methodology/approach This study applies unit root test to investigate the behavior of Chinese firms toward their leverage policy. The study is based on two influential and competing theories of capital structure. Trade off theory advocates that firms have a target level of leverage ratio and that firms try to achieve that optimal leverage ratio, whereas pecking order theory argues that firms have no target level of leverage and that they follow a specific pattern of leverage. For this purpose, this study applies a Fisher type unit root test to 12,808 firm level observations. The data are unbalanced and cover a period from 1991 to 2014. Findings The results reveal the presence of a stationary behavior across short-term, long-term and total leverage policies. For short-term leverage policy, 21 per cent firms show stationary behavior, while for long-term, 20 per cent show a targeting behavior; for the total leverage policy 17 per cent of firms are found to follow a tradeoff model. To make the findings more interesting sample was further classified into profit and loss making firms. The study finds that loss making firms do not follow a target level of leverage in China. Furthermore, unit root is applied to all firms before and after crises-2008. It is revealed that stationary behavior is more prevalent before crises-2008. Originality/value This study is highly important from the point of view that it quantifies firms into distinct categories of following specific model of capital structure. To the best of the author’s knowledge, the findings of this study add to current research knowledge about Chinese firms with respect to adjustment behavior toward a target capital structure.

scholarly journals Portfolio management practices of investment practitioners active in the long-term insurance industry

2001 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 344-358
Author(s):  
J. H. Mostert ◽  
S. J. Steel ◽  
F. J. Mostert
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
General Information ◽  
Financial Investment ◽  
Decisionmaking Process ◽  
Term Insurance

In the long-term insurance industry, sound financial investment decisions depend largely on the portfolio management practices of the investment practitioners concerned. The ability of the investment practitioners to make well-informed decisions, as well as the strategies and policies underlying portfolio management practices, are the main issues of this research. Important correlations amongst various aspects of the financial investment decisionmaking process, as well as their association with the general information pertaining to the long-term insurers (which were disclosed during the empirical study), emerge in the closing section of this paper. The conclusions should be of prime interest to long-term insurers as well as investment practitioners who are working in that industry.

scholarly journals Causal Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1970-2013

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uwazie I. U. ◽  
Igwemma A. A. ◽  
Nnabu Bernard Eze
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run

Foreign direct investment is presumed to play immense role in economic growth in both developed and developing economies. This assumption has motivated the army of studies to actually determine the nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Nigeria. But these studies were not unified on the direction of the causation, hence the need for the study. To effectively analyze the result, the study employs vector error correction model method of causality to analyze the annual data for the periods of 1970 to 2013. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test show presence of unit root at level but stationary after first difference. The Johansen cointegration test confirms that the variables are cointegrated while the granger causality test affirms that foreign direct investment and economic growth reinforce each other in the short run in Nigeria. Also, it is reported that foreign direct investment granger cause economic growth both in the short and long run in Nigeria. Based on these findings, the study advocates the adoption of aggressive policy reforms to boost investors’ confidence and promotion of qualitative human capital development to lure FDI into the country. It also suggests the introduction of selective openness to allow only the inflow of FDI that have the capacity to spillover to the economy. These will attract FDI and boost economic growth in Nigeria.

Dynamic linkages among developed, emerging and frontier capital markets of Asia-Pacific region

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 332-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nisha Mary Thomas ◽  
Smita Kashiramka ◽  
Surendra S. Yadav
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Thin Body ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
Asia Pacific Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Global Investors

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between developed, emerging and frontier markets of the Asia-Pacific region during January 2000 to June 2016. Design/methodology/approach Zivot and Andrews’ unit root test is used to examine the existence of unit root in index series in the presence of a structural break. Gregory and Hansen’s test of cointegration is employed to examine the stable long-run relationship between the indices under study. Findings The results suggest that the emerging markets of China and Thailand and the frontier markets of Sri Lanka and Pakistan are fairly segmented from most of the markets in the Asia-Pacific region. Hence, these markets provide good diversification opportunities to global investors. Bidirectional cointegration analysis indicates that emerging and frontier markets influence developed markets. Hence, it can be inferred that the de facto position that only bigger markets influence small markets no longer holds true in the current environment. Practical implications The findings of this study will provide valuable inputs to global investors for creating an optimal investment portfolio. Originality/value This study does a comprehensive examination of market integration in the Asia-Pacific region. It also contributes to the thin body of work done on frontier markets. Unlike past studies, this paper analyzes the bidirectional cointegration relationship to examine if the notion that only bigger markets influence smaller markets holds true or not. Finally, this study employs advanced techniques of unit root test and cointegration test that consider structural breaks in the models.

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