Livestock's Near-Term Climate Impact and Mitigation Policy Implications

2022 ◽  
pp. 1027-1048
Author(s):  
Gerard Wedderburn-Bisshop ◽  
Lauren Rickards
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Human Consumption ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Responses ◽  
Methane Source ◽  
Near Term

Human consumption of livestock remains a marginal issue in climate change debates, partly due to the IPCC's arbitrary adoption of 100-year global warming potential framework to compare different emissions, blinding us to the significance of shorter-term emissions, namely methane. Together with the gas it reacts to form - tropospheric ozone - methane has been responsible for 37% of global warming since 1750, yet its atmospheric life is just 10 years. Neglecting its role means overlooking powerful mitigation opportunities. The chapter discusses the role of livestock, the largest anthropogenic methane source, and the need to include reduced meat consumption in climate change responses. Looking beyond the conventional focus on the consumer, we point to some underlying challenges in addressing the meat-climate relationship, including the climate science community's reluctance to adopt a short-term focus in its climate projections. Policy options are presented.

Livestock's Near-Term Climate Impact and Mitigation Policy Implications

2018 ◽  
pp. 37-57
Author(s):  
Gerard Wedderburn-Bisshop ◽  
Lauren Rickards
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Human Consumption ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Responses ◽  
Methane Source ◽  
Near Term

Human consumption of livestock remains a marginal issue in climate change debates, partly due to the IPCC's arbitrary adoption of 100-year global warming potential framework to compare different emissions, blinding us to the significance of shorter-term emissions, namely methane. Together with the gas it reacts to form - tropospheric ozone - methane has been responsible for 37% of global warming since 1750, yet its atmospheric life is just 10 years. Neglecting its role means overlooking powerful mitigation opportunities. The chapter discusses the role of livestock, the largest anthropogenic methane source, and the need to include reduced meat consumption in climate change responses. Looking beyond the conventional focus on the consumer, we point to some underlying challenges in addressing the meat-climate relationship, including the climate science community's reluctance to adopt a short-term focus in its climate projections. Policy options are presented.

scholarly journals Method-uncertainty is essential for reliable confidence statements of precipitation projections

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-45
Author(s):  
Peter Uhe ◽  
Dann Mitchell ◽  
Paul D. Bates ◽  
Myles R. Allen ◽  
Richard A. Betts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Present Climate ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Multi Method Approach ◽  
Precipitation Projections

AbstractPrecipitation events cause disruption around the world and will be altered by climate change. However, different climate modeling approaches can result in different future precipitation projections. The corresponding ‘method-uncertainty’ is rarely explicitly calculated in climate impact studies and major reports, but can substantially change estimated precipitation changes. A comparison across five commonly-used modeling activities shows that for changes in mean precipitation, less than half the regions analyzed had significant changes between the present climate and 1.5°C global warming for the majority of modeling activities. This increases to just over half the regions for changes between present climate and 2°C global warming. There is much higher confidence in changes in maximum 1-day precipitation than in mean precipitation, indicating the robust influence of thermodynamics in the climate change effect on extremes. We also find that none of the modeling activities capture the full range of estimates from the other methods in all regions. Our results serve as an uncertainty map to help interpret which regions require a multi-method approach. Our analysis highlights the risk of over-reliance on any single modeling activity and the need for confidence statements in major synthesis reports to reflect this ‘method-uncertainty’. Considering multiple sources of climate projections should reduce the risks of policymakers being unprepared for impacts of warmer climates compared to using single-method projections to make decisions.

What are we Doing about Climate Change?

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Helen M. Cox
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Environmental Problem ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Press ◽  
The World ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Future Climate Projections

Climate change is the most important contemporary environmental problem that the world faces, yet it is the subject of many misconceptions. Climate science has been used for political ends and distorted in the press, both intentionally and through ignorance. This article presents an overview of what is known about global warming and what is controversial, about future climate projections and their impacts, and about the emissions responsible for climate change and policies to limit them.

scholarly journals Ensemble Projections of Regional Climatic Changes over Ontario, Canada

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (18) ◽  
pp. 7327-7346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiuquan Wang ◽  
Guohe Huang ◽  
Jinliang Liu ◽  
Zhong Li ◽  
Shan Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Data Portal

Abstract In this study, high-resolution climate projections over Ontario, Canada, are developed through an ensemble modeling approach to provide reliable and ready-to-use climate scenarios for assessing plausible effects of future climatic changes at local scales. The Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional modeling system is adopted to conduct ensemble simulations in a continuous run from 1950 to 2099, driven by the boundary conditions from a HadCM3-based perturbed physics ensemble. Simulations of temperature and precipitation for the baseline period are first compared to the observed values to validate the performance of the ensemble in capturing the current climatology over Ontario. Future projections for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s are then analyzed to help understand plausible changes in its local climate in response to global warming. The analysis indicates that there is likely to be an obvious warming trend with time over the entire province. The increase in average temperature is likely to be varying within [2.6, 2.7]°C in the 2030s, [4.0, 4.7]°C in the 2050s, and [5.9, 7.4]°C in the 2080s. Likewise, the annual total precipitation is projected to increase by [4.5, 7.1]% in the 2030s, [4.6, 10.2]% in the 2050s, and [3.2, 17.5]% in the 2080s. Furthermore, projections of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are developed to help understand the effects of global warming on extreme precipitation events. The results suggest that there is likely to be an overall increase in the intensity of rainfall storms. Finally, a data portal named Ontario Climate Change Data Portal (CCDP) is developed to ensure decision-makers and impact researchers have easy and intuitive access to the refined regional climate change scenarios.

Operational Water Service for Copernicus Climate Change Service: development at European scale

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christiana Photiadou ◽  
Peter Berg ◽  
Denica Bozhinova ◽  
Anna Eronn ◽  
Fulco Ludwig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Web Application ◽  
Graphical Representation ◽  
Ecological Status ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Service Development ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Management Service ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Water Service

<p>The Operational Water Service of C3S (developed by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)) aims to help a broad range of water managers with water allocation, flood management, ecological status and industrial water use, to adapt their strategies in order to adapt to climate variability and change. The aim is to speed up the workflow in climate-change adaptation by using seasonal hydrological forecasts and climate-impact indicators. This is done by offering an interactive web application with refined data, guidance and practical showcases to water managers across Europe. Policy makers will find a comprehensive overview for Europe with key messages and consultants can use the service for developing climate impact assessments and adaptation strategies.</p><p>The development of the current operational climate service for water management is based on the experience from two previous proof-of-concepts and will also be aligned with the hydrological model system of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS).  The service is uses data from the Climate Data Store and the operational hydrological seasonal forecasting system runs entirely in the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) technical environment, although developed by SMHI.</p><p>The operational Water Service of C3S will be launched during the spring of 2021, and a series of activities and user interactions will be organised to ensure that the applications developed for the service fulfil the users’ needs. Here, we present the development process of the operational service and key outcomes from co-design interactions and resulting applications. The key issues identified by the user community were: i) clear visualisation and graphical representation of skill in seasonal forecasts and confidence in climate projections, ii) need of detailed documentation and process transparency in hydrological models and production of data, iii) user guidance and tutorials are needed for better understanding of the applications, and iv) workflows and scripts for indicator production in new applications for developers of information systems.</p>

scholarly journals Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Parkes ◽  
Dimitri Defrance ◽  
Benjamin Sultan ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Xuhui Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Rainwater Harvesting ◽  
High Temperature Stress ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Maize Crop ◽  
Crop Models ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Near Term

Abstract. The ability of a country or region to feed itself in the upcoming decades is a question of importance. The population in West Africa is expected to increase significantly in the next 30 years. The responses of food crops to short term climate change is therefore critical to the population at large and the decision makers tasked with providing food for their people. An ensemble of near term climate projections are used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the recent historic and near term future. The mean yields are not expected to alter significantly, while there is an increase in inter annual variability. This increase in variability increases the likelihood of crop failures, which are defined as yield negative anomalies beyond one standard deviation during a period of 20 years. The increasing variability increases the frequency and intensity of crop failures across West Africa. The mean return frequency between mild maize crop failures from process based crop models increases from once every 6.8 years to once every 4.5 years. The mean return time frequency for severe crop failures (beyond 1.5 standard deviations) also almost doubles from once every 16.5 years to once every 8.5 years. Two adaptation responses to climate change, the adoption of heat-resistant cultivars and the use of captured rainwater have been investigated using one crop model in an idealised sensitivity test. The generalised adoption of a cultivar resistant to high temperature stress during flowering is shown to be more beneficial than using rainwater harvesting by both increasing yields and the return frequency of crop failures.

Mass Media and the Social Amplification of Climate Change Risks

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allan Mazur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New York ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
News Media ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
Forthcoming Article ◽  
Public Concerns

This is an advance summary of a forthcoming article in the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. Please check back later for the full article. Global warming was not on public or media agendas prior to 1998. In summer of that year, during an unusual heat wave, The New York Times and other major U.S. news organizations saliently reported warnings by NASA scientist James Hansen that the earth is warming. This alarm quickly spread to secondary media and to the news media of other nations. According to the “Quantity of Coverage Theory,” public concerns and governmental actions about a problem rise and fall with the extent of media coverage of that problem, a generalization that is applicable here. Over the next few years, global warming became part of a suite of worldwide issues (particularly the ozone hole, biodiversity, and destruction of rain forests) conceptualized as the “endangered earth,” more or less climaxing on Earth Day 1990. Media coverage and public concerns waned after 1990, thereafter following an erratic course until 2006, when they reached unprecedented heights internationally, largely but not entirely associated with former Vice President Al Gore’s promotion of human-caused climate change as “an inconvenient truth.” By this time, the issue had become highly polarized, with denial or discounting of the risk a hallmark of the political right, especially among American Republicans. International media coverage and public concern fell after 2010, but at this writing in 2015, these are again on the rise. The ups and downs of media attention and public concern are unrelated to real changes in the temperature of the atmosphere.

scholarly journals Global Warming: The Balance of Evidence and Its Policy Implications

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 357-411 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Keller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Societal Implications ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Controversial Issues ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
New Information ◽  
Third Assessment Report ◽  
Made In

Global warming and attendant climate change have been controversial for at least a decade. This is largely because of its societal implications. With the recent publication of the Third Assessment Report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change there has been renewed interest and controversy about how certain the scientific community is of its conclusions: that humans are influencing the climate and that global temperatures will continue to rise rapidly in this century. This review attempts to update what is known and in particular what advances have been made in the past 5 years or so. It does not attempt to be comprehensive. Rather it focuses on the most controversial issues, which are actually few in number. They are: 1-Is the surface temperature record accurate or is it biased by heat from cities, etc.? 2-Is that record significantly different from past warmings such as the Medieval Warming Period? 3-Is not the sun’s increasing activity the cause of most of the warming? 4-Can we model climate and predict its future, or is it just too complex and chaotic? 5-Are there any other changes in climate other than warming, and can they be attributed to the warming?Despite continued uncertainties, the review finds affirmative answers to these questions. Of particular interest are advances that seem to explain why satellites do not see as much warming as surface instruments, how we are getting a good idea of recent paleoclimates, and why the 20thcentury temperature record was so complex. It makes the point that in each area new information could come to light that would change our thinking on the quantitative magnitude and timing of anthropogenic warming, but it is unlikely to alter the basic conclusions.Finally, there is a very brief discussion of the societal policy response to the scientific message, and the author comments on his 2-year email discussions with many of the world’s most outspoken critics of the anthropogenic warming hypothesis.

scholarly journals Overcoming gender inequality for climate resilient development

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Andrijevic ◽  
Jesus Crespo Cuaresma ◽  
Tabea Lissner ◽  
Adelle Thomas ◽  
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Gender Inequality ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Gender Inequalities ◽  
Growing Up ◽  
Inequality Index ◽  
Differential Vulnerability ◽  
Near Term

AbstractGender inequalities are reflected in differential vulnerability, and exposure to the hazards posed by climate change and addressing them is key to increase the adaptive capacities of societies. We provide trajectories of the Gender Inequality Index (GII) alongside the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a scenario framework widely used in climate science. Here we find that rapid improvements in gender inequality are possible under a sustainable development scenario already in the near-term. The share of girls growing up in countries with the highest gender inequality could be reduced to about 24% in 2030 compared to about 70% today. Largely overcoming gender inequality as assessed in the GII would be within reach by mid-century. Under less optimistic scenarios, gender inequality may persist throughout the 21st century. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating gender in scenarios assessing future climate impacts and underscore the relevance of addressing gender inequalities in policies aiming to foster climate resilient development.

scholarly journals Decision-making through the grapevine: Winegrowers' perceptions on climate change and the barriers to adaptation planning in New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Alyssa Ryan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Wine Industry ◽  
Adaptation Planning ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Wine Production ◽  
Climate Change Research

<p>New Zealand wine is cultivated in cool climates that produce distinctive flavours and wine-styles, which are representative of the terroir of the region. The effects of climate change can impact the quality and quantity of winegrapes, and the production of premium wine. The aim of this research was to investigate adaptation planning in the New Zealand wine industry by evaluating winegrowers’ decision-making and perceptions of climate change. Research was conducted using primary survey data from New Zealand winegrowers and semi-structured interviews with winegrowers from three case study regions of Marlborough, Central Otago, and Hawke’s Bay. The study was designed to assess how climate change is understood throughout the industry, whether adaptation plans are being developed or employed and the barriers hindering winegrowers’ implementation of adaptation strategies. The results show that winegrowers are somewhat informed about climate change with some adaptation planning occurring. However, the majority of winegrowers have no plans to adapt to climate change. The uncertainty in the climate science and the availability of information were indicated as a barrier to adaptation planning. Winegrowers convey the need for regional information with a focus on reliable forecasting and climate projections for the next few years. The New Zealand wine industry is in a positive position to undertake adaptation with the opportunity to exploit the benefits of climate change for wine production.</p>

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