Quantifying Unknown Unknowns in an Oil and Gas Capital Project

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 29-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuri Raydugin

Projects continue to fail at a high rate despite the well-known risk benchmarks published decades ago. Risk assessment and contingency planning are needed in oil and gas (O&G) capital projects because of many ‘unknown unknowns.’ Uncertainty must be estimated for the project schedule as well as for investment costs. Quantitative estimates and diagramming tools can assist in understanding and communicating project risk levels. This paper outlines and applies a method for quantifying unknown unknowns in the O&G industry based on a case study. Four dimensions of unknown unknowns are discussed: novelty of a project, phase of project development, type of industry, and bias. Uncertainty is classified as unknown unknowns, bias, known unknowns, and corporate risks. Practical recommendations are made to quantify uncertainty using probabilistic risk models, and then to integrate these estimates into the budget and schedule.

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 210-221
Author(s):  
C.E. Alaneme ◽  
S.A. Al-Jeshi ◽  
S.B. Al-Otaibi

Compliance with new regulations in old plants remains a recurring challenge because of negative outcome of incidents. This challenge stems from uncertainties in the facilities’ integrity, owing to inadequacy of existing integrity-validating technologies. Process facilities deteriorate through cyclic operations, while encroachments from expanding population characteristically raise the risk-levels, leading to need for higher grade materials to meet operational expansions. Retroactive compliance becomes a nightmare with every new regulation without a robust cost-to-benefit assurance. This paper discusses two-phased qualitative and quantitative risk modelling approach through systematic field-data-gathering, hazards identification and analysis by a twelve-man risk management engineers. The methodology successfully computed a “health-check" of the facility’s compliance to new regulations, 17 high-risk-hazards were extracted from 42 potential hazards and successfully established varied individual risk levels ranging from 4.07E-06 to 1.64E-04/year. Also, risks ranged from 1.00E-04 to 5.00E-05/year of tolerable risks to the environment, society, and business were recorded across the facility while, 22 risk-mitigation actions were recommended.


2020 ◽  
Vol 312 ◽  
pp. 02006
Author(s):  
Ruveyda Komurlu ◽  
Akin Er

Billion-dollar investments are quite common in oil and gas industry and owners generally prefer engineering, procurement, construction (EPC) contracts since they would like to minimize their risks and guarantee the most consistent project cost and shortest timeline scheme. Considering the size of contracts, owners are unsurprisingly seeking an ideal tender awarding method to avoid deviation from project schedule or budget and get the maximum benefit for them. They may prefer to award the EPC contract directly (i), have a front-end engineering design (FEED) study done first and award the EPC contract afterwards (ii), or set up a convertible contract and convert it to EPC after an open book cost estimate (OBCE) process (iii). It is a question of concern which option for large-scale oil and gas projects is the most favourable. As a case study, outcomes of a project which was administrated with a conversion type of contract will be reviewed in detail, and a number of principles based on lessons learned will be listed. Thus, the authors aim to provide a verifying approach for the interpretation of EPC conversion type contract management based on analysis of the distinguishing features of large-scale oil and gas projects.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Sarmistha R. Majumdar

Fracking has helped to usher in an era of energy abundance in the United States. This advanced drilling procedure has helped the nation to attain the status of the largest producer of crude oil and natural gas in the world, but some of its negative externalities, such as human-induced seismicity, can no longer be ignored. The occurrence of earthquakes in communities located at proximity to disposal wells with no prior history of seismicity has shocked residents and have caused damages to properties. It has evoked individuals’ resentment against the practice of injection of fracking’s wastewater under pressure into underground disposal wells. Though the oil and gas companies have denied the existence of a link between such a practice and earthquakes and the local and state governments have delayed their responses to the unforeseen seismic events, the issue has gained in prominence among researchers, affected community residents, and the media. This case study has offered a glimpse into the varied responses of stakeholders to human-induced seismicity in a small city in the state of Texas. It is evident from this case study that although individuals’ complaints and protests from a small community may not be successful in bringing about statewide changes in regulatory policies on disposal of fracking’s wastewater, they can add to the public pressure on the state government to do something to address the problem in a state that supports fracking.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Miriam R. Aczel ◽  
Karen E. Makuch

This case study analyzes the potential impacts of weakening the National Park Service’s (NPS) “9B Regulations” enacted in 1978, which established a federal regulatory framework governing hydrocarbon rights and extraction to protect natural resources within the parks. We focus on potential risks to national parklands resulting from Executive Orders 13771—Reducing Regulation and Controlling Regulatory Costs [1]—and 13783—Promoting Energy Independence and Economic Growth [2]—and subsequent recent revisions and further deregulation. To establish context, we briefly overview the history of the United States NPS and other relevant federal agencies’ roles and responsibilities in protecting federal lands that have been set aside due to their value as areas of natural beauty or historical or cultural significance [3]. We present a case study of Theodore Roosevelt National Park (TRNP) situated within the Bakken Shale Formation—a lucrative region of oil and gas deposits—to examine potential impacts if areas of TRNP, particularly areas designated as “wilderness,” are opened to resource extraction, or if the development in other areas of the Bakken near or adjacent to the park’s boundaries expands [4]. We have chosen TRNP because of its biodiversity and rich environmental resources and location in the hydrocarbon-rich Bakken Shale. We discuss where federal agencies’ responsibility for the protection of these lands for future generations and their responsibility for oversight of mineral and petroleum resources development by private contractors have the potential for conflict.


2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 177
Author(s):  
Nur Huzeima Mohd Hussain ◽  
Hugh Byrd ◽  
Nur Azfahani Ahmad

Globalisation combined with resources of oil and gas has led to an industrial society in Malaysia.  For the past 30 years, rapid urban growth has shifted from 73% rural to 73% urban population. However, the peak oil crisis and economic issues are threatening the growth of urbanisation and influencing the trends of population mobility. This paper documents the beginnings of a reverse migration (urban-to-rural) in Malaysia.  The method adopted case study that involves questionnaires with the urban migrants to establish the desires, definite intentions and reasons for future migration. Based on this data, it predicts a trend and rate of reverse migration in Malaysia. 


2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
José G. Vargas- Hernández ◽  
Ángel Daniel Rodríguez Ortega

This study has aim to identify the main causes of a bad work environment with a high rate of turnover. The objective is to propose an intervention plan to increase the participation, commitment and employees proactivity. This job is performed with a case study with the quantitative paradigm, transversal and exploratory; the selected sample is from a PYME dedicated to automation power services. For it is based on the model of situational leadership Hersey and Blanchard, in addition to job satisfaction survey NTP213.


Author(s):  
Y. Anggoro

The Belida field is an offshore field located in Block B of Indonesia’s South Natuna Sea. This field was discovered in 1989. Both oil and gas bearing reservoirs are present in the Belida field in the Miocene Arang, Udang and Intra Barat Formations. Within the middle Arang Formation, there are three gas pay zones informally referred to as Beta, Gamma and Delta. These sand zones are thin pay zones which need to be carefully planned and economically exploited. Due to the nature of the reservoir, sand production is a challenge and requires downhole sand control. A key challenge for sand control equipment in this application is erosion resistance without inhibiting productivity as high gas rates and associated high flow velocity is expected from the zones, which is known to have caused sand control failure. To help achieve a cost-effective and easily planned deployment solution to produce hydrocarbons, a rigless deployment is the preferred method to deploy downhole sand control. PSD analysis from the reservoir zone suggested from ‘Industry Rules of Thumb’ a conventional gravel pack deployment as a means of downhole sand control. However, based on review of newer globally proven sand control technologies since adoption of these ‘Industry Rules of Thumb’, a cost-effective solution could be considered and implemented utilizing Ceramic Sand Screen technology. This paper will discuss the successful application at Block B, Natuna Sea using Ceramic Sand Screens as a rigless intervention solution addressing the erosion / hot spotting challenges in these high rate production zones. The erosion resistance of the Ceramic Sand Screen design allows a deployment methodology directly adjacent to the perforated interval to resist against premature loss of sand control. The robust ceramic screen design gave the flexibility required to develop a cost-effective lower completion deployment methodology both from a challenging make up in the well due to a restrictive lubricator length to the tractor conveyancing in the well to land out at the desired set depth covering the producing zone. The paper will overview the success of multi-service and product supply co-operation adopting technology enablers to challenge ‘Industry Rules of Thumb’ replaced by rigless reasoning as a standard well intervention downhole sand control solution where Medco E&P Natuna Ltd. (Medco E&P) faces sand control challenges in their high deviation, sidetracked well stock. The paper draws final attention to the hydrocarbon performance gain resulting due to the ability for choke free production to allow drawing down the well at higher rates than initially expected from this zone.


IEEE Access ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Amir Farmahini Farahani ◽  
Kaveh Khalili-Damghani ◽  
Hosein Didehkhani ◽  
Amir Homayoun Sarfaraz ◽  
Mehdi Hajirezaie

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