Regional Forecasts

2019 ◽  
pp. 67-115
Author(s):  
Barry M. Blechman
Keyword(s):  
Regional Forecasts

scholarly journals FACTOR ANALYSIS OF THE CENTRAL BLACK EARTH MACROREGION AREAS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 168-187
Author(s):  
Irina N. Titova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Growth Factors ◽  
Human Potential ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Production Potential ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Innovation Potential ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Regional Forecasts

Effective implementation of regional policy is impossible without assessing the current environment of the region’s functioning, which is formed under the influence of internal factors. Among the many factors that determine the socio-economic development of the region, we have identified: human potential, innovation potential, investment potential, digitalization of the economy, production potential, quality of life and infrastructure development. Each of the selected factors can be characterized by using a system of statistical indicators. In regional forecasts, internal factors act as control parameters, changing them it is possible to find an opportunity to change the course and direction of socio-economic processes in the region. This explains the necessity and relevance of the study. The purpose of this article is to form a set of indicators to assess the factor load on the socio-economic development of the region and determine its vector. The method of factor analysis on an indicative basis was used for achieving this goal. The importance of factorial analysis lies, first of all, in the fact that its results will make it possible to assess the share of influence of each factor on the “level of socio-economic development of the region” and to develop appropriate tools for managing growth factors. Taking into account the formed system of indicators, an analysis of the Central Black Earth macroregion areas economic development was carried out. The greatest factor load on the socio-economic development of the region is exerted by the innovation potential, production potential and human potential of the region. As a result of the study, a matrix of the regions distribution by the level of socio-economic development was built, reflecting the position of the region in dynamics. During the study period, the Voronezh region occupies a leading position, and the Tambov region is an outsider region. In addition, for each region, growth factors and restrictions on the development of the region were identified, which must be taken into account when building regional forecasts.

Impacts of a Large-scale Adaptive Blending Scheme for CMA-MESO on Regional Forecasts-A Case Study of Typhoon Haima

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 330-345
Author(s):  
FENG Jia-li ◽  
GAO Yan ◽  
XIA Xin ◽  
MA Yu-long ◽  
SUN Jian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Forecasts

scholarly journals Comparison of Simulated Precipitation over East Asia in Two Regional Models with Hydrostatic and Nonhydrostatic Dynamical Cores

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (10) ◽  
pp. 3579-3590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jihyeon Jang ◽  
Song-You Hong
Keyword(s):  
Wrf Model ◽  
Local Maximum ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Model Program ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Dynamical Core ◽  
Simulated Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Area ◽  
Hydrostatic Limit ◽  
Regional Forecasts

This study examines the characteristics of a nonhydrostatic dynamical core compared to a corresponding hydrostatic dynamical core in the Regional Model Program (RMP) of the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs), a spectral model for regional forecasts, focusing on simulated precipitation over Korea. This kind of comparison is also executed in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) finite-difference model with the same physics package used in the RMP. Overall, it is found that the nonhydrostatic dynamical core experiment accurately reproduces the heavy rainfall near Seoul, South Korea, on a 3-km grid, relative to the results from the hydrostatic dynamical core in both models. However, the characteristics of nonhydrostatic effects on the simulated precipitation differ between the RMP and WRF Model. The RMP with the nonhydrostatic dynamical core improves the local maximum, which is exaggerated in the hydrostatic simulation. The hydrostatic simulation of the WRF Model displaces the major precipitation area toward the mountainous region along the east coast of the peninsula, which is shifted into the observed area in the nonhydrostatic simulation. In the simulation of a summer monsoonal rainfall, these nonhydrostatic effects are negligible in the RMP, but the simulated monsoonal rainfall is still influenced by the dynamical core in the WRF Model even at a 27-km grid spacing. One of the reasons for the smaller dynamical core effect in the RMP seems to be the relatively strong horizontal diffusion, resulting in a smaller grid size of the hydrostatic limit.

Extension of 3DVAR to 4DVAR: Implementation of 4DVAR at the Meteorological Service of Canada

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (6) ◽  
pp. 2339-2354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Gauthier ◽  
Monique Tanguay ◽  
Stéphane Laroche ◽  
Simon Pellerin ◽  
Josée Morneau
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Variational Data Assimilation ◽  
Simultaneous Occurrence ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Surface Drag ◽  
Vertical Diffusion ◽  
Regional Forecasts ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Lagrangian Scheme

Abstract On 15 March 2005, the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) proceeded to the implementation of a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) system, which led to significant improvements in the quality of global forecasts. This paper describes the different elements of MSC’s 4DVAR assimilation system, discusses some issues encountered during the development, and reports on the overall results from the 4DVAR implementation tests. The 4DVAR system adopted an incremental approach with two outer iterations. The simplified model used in the minimization has a horizontal resolution of 170 km and its simplified physics includes vertical diffusion, surface drag, orographic blocking, stratiform condensation, and convection. One important element of the design is its modularity, which has permitted continued progress on the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) component (e.g., addition of new observation types) and the model (e.g., computational and numerical changes). This paper discusses some numerical problems that occur in the vicinity of the Poles where the semi-Lagrangian scheme becomes unstable when there is a simultaneous occurrence of converging meridians and strong wind gradients. These could be removed by filtering the winds in the zonal direction before they are used to estimate the upstream position in the semi-Lagrangian scheme. The results show improvements in all aspects of the forecasts over all regions. The impact is particularly significant in the Southern Hemisphere where 4DVAR is able to extract more information from satellite data. In the Northern Hemisphere, 4DVAR accepts more asynoptic data, in particular coming from profilers and aircrafts. The impact noted is also positive and the short-term forecasts are particularly improved over the west coast of North America. Finally, the dynamical consistency of the 4DVAR global analyses leads to a significant impact on regional forecasts. Experimentation has shown that regional forecasts initiated directly from a 4DVAR global analysis are improved with respect to the regional forecasts resulting from the regional 3DVAR analysis.

scholarly journals METHODOLOGIC ELEMENTS NECESSARY IN MAKING FORECASTS FOR REGIONAL

2008 ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Dumitru Timerman ◽  
Mihai Deju
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Maximum Efficiency ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Structural Funds ◽  
Potential Development ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Regional Economic Disparities ◽  
Regional Forecasts ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Global Data

Regional picture appear two Romanians: a richer, which includes the Bucharest-Ilfov, West and Center and a poor, other regions. Among the most competitive districts are Ilfov (8. 553 euro per capita), Timiş (7. 931 euro per capita), Braşov (7. 108 euro per capita), Arad (6. 675 euro per capita), Cluj (6. 561 euro per capita), Constanta (6. 368 euro per capita), and among the poorest - Botosani (2. 745 euro per capita) and Vaslui (2. 930 euro per capita). According to a report by the National Prognosis Commission (CNP), while Bucharest-Ilfov region will have a GDP per capita of 11. 694 euros next year, the Northeast will remain poverty pole, 3. 826 euro per capita. Economists argue that, if not reduce disparities, mainly through public investment, we could assist in disruption of important social and economic environment. Lowering differences would include the maintenance of close growth rates of GDP / capita, and these important gaps. Economic analysts draw attention to the dangers which may arise due to different levels of development. Develop forecasts in territorial - at regional or county-is a necessary and useful approach in the perspective of Romania in the European Union. From this point of the assessment of regional economic disparities and the potential development of each area provides an important support kinesiology orientation and use with maximum efficiency of the structural funds and cohesion funds that Romania will benefit by integrating. Regional forecasts provide information on possible future development, with employment in the global data of the national economy as a whole.

scholarly journals Predicting the Net Basin Supply to the Great Lakes with a Hydrometeorological Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1739-1759 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Deacu ◽  
Vincent Fortin ◽  
Erika Klyszejko ◽  
Christopher Spence ◽  
Peter D. Blanken
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Lake Superior ◽  
Multiscale Model ◽  
Turbulent Fluxes ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Model ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Flux Parameterization ◽  
Lake Evaporation ◽  
Regional Forecasts

Abstract The paper presents the incremental improvement of the prediction of the Great Lakes net basin supply (NBS) with the hydrometeorological model Modélisation Environmentale–Surface et Hydrologie (MESH) by increasing the accuracy of the simulated NBS components (overlake precipitation, lake evaporation, and runoff into the lake). This was achieved through a series of experiments with MESH and its parent numerical weather prediction model [the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale model in its regional configuration (GEM Regional)]. With forcing extracted from operational GEM Regional forecasts, MESH underestimated the NBS in fall and winter. The underestimation increased when the GEM precipitation was replaced with its corrected version provided by the Canadian Precipitation Analysis. This pointed to overestimated lake evaporation and prompted the revision of the parameterization of the surface turbulent fluxes over water used both in MESH and GEM. The revised parameterization was validated against turbulent fluxes measured at a point on Lake Superior. Its use in MESH reduced the lake evaporation and largely corrected the NBS underestimation. However, the Lake Superior NBS became overestimated, signaling an inconsistency between the reduced lake evaporation and the prescribed precipitation. To remove the inconsistency, a new forcing dataset (including precipitation) was generated with the GEM model using the revised flux parameterization. A major NBS simulation improvement was obtained with the new atmospheric forcing reflecting the atmospheric response to the modified surface fluxes over the lakes. Additional improvements resulted by correcting the runoff with a modified snowmelt rate and by insertion of observed streamflows. The study shows that accurate lake evaporation simulation is crucial for accurate NBS prediction.

scholarly journals From Field Experiments to Regional Forecasts: Upscaling Wheat Grain and Forage Yield Response to Acidic Soils

2019 ◽  
Vol 111 (1) ◽  
pp. 287-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romulo P. Lollato ◽  
Tyson E. Ochsner ◽  
Daryl B. Arnall ◽  
Terry W. Griffin ◽  
Jeffrey T. Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Field Experiments ◽  
Forage Yield ◽  
Yield Response ◽  
Wheat Grain ◽  
Acidic Soils ◽  
Regional Forecasts

NCEP - ECPC monthly to seasonal US fire danger forecasts

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 399 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Roads ◽  
P. Tripp ◽  
H. Juang ◽  
J. Wang ◽  
F. Fujioka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Meteorological Variables ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Burning Index ◽  
Fire Characteristics ◽  
Regional Forecasts

Five National Fire Danger Rating System indices (including the Ignition Component, Energy Release Component, Burning Index, Spread Component, and the Keetch–Byram Drought Index) and the Fosberg Fire Weather Index are used to characterise US fire danger. These fire danger indices and input meteorological variables, including temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, cloud cover and wind speed, can be skilfully predicted at weekly to seasonal time scales by a global to regional dynamical prediction system modified from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Coupled Forecast System. The System generates global and regional spectral model ensemble forecasts, which in turn provide required input meteorological variables for fire danger. Seven-month US regional forecasts were generated every month from 1982 to 2007. This study shows that coarse-scale global predictions were more skilful than persistence, and fine-scale regional model predictions were more skilful than global predictions. The fire indices were better related to fire counts and area burned than meteorological variables, although relative humidity and temperature were useful predictors of fire characteristics.

Forecasting the Local Economy, Using Time-Series and Shift—Share Techniques

1989 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 753-770 ◽  
Author(s):  
J A Kurre ◽  
B R Weller
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Few Data ◽  
Regional Forecasts ◽  
Typical Method

Although shift – share is an inexpensive and easy means of making regional forecasts, its accuracy depends on the method used in forecasting the competitive component of the region. As theory is unclear as to the sign, let alone the magnitude, of the competitive component of the next period, it would be appropriate to use time-series techniques to forecast it. Unfortunately the typical method of application of shift–share results in too few data points for the application of time-series analysis. In this paper an alternative method of calculating the competitive component that resolves that problem is presented. In an empirical test of the technique, time-series methods are used to forecast the competitive series for a metropolitan region. The results are found to compare favorably with the forecasts of other techniques.

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