scholarly journals Modelling International Tourist Arrivals Volatility in Zimbabwe Using a GARCH Process

2021 ◽  
pp. 639-653
Author(s):  
Tendai Makoni ◽  
Delson Chikobvu
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Marketing Strategies ◽  
Prediction Intervals ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Slow Increase ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Garch Process

The aim of the paper was to develop bootstrap prediction intervals for international tourism demand and volatility in Zimbabwe after modelling with an ARMA-GARCH process. ARMA-GARCH models have better forecasting power and are capable of capturing and quantifying volatility. Bootstrap prediction intervals can account for future uncertainty that arises through parameter estimation. The monthly international tourism data obtained from the Zimbabwe Tourism Authority (ZTA) (January 2000 to June 2017) is neither seasonal nor stationary and is made stationery by taking a logarithm transformation. An ARMA(1,1) model fits well to the data; with forecasts indicating a slow increase in international tourist arrivals (outside of the Covid-19 period). The GARCH(1,1) process indicated that unexpected tourism shocks will significantly impact the Zimbabwe international tourist arrivals for longer durations. Volatility bootstrap prediction intervals indicated minimal future uncertainty in international tourist arrivals. For the Zimbabwe tourism industry to remain relevant, new tourism products and attraction centres need to be developed, as well as embarking on effective marketing strategies to lure even more tourists from abroad. This will go a long way in increasing the much-needed foreign currency earnings needed to revive the Zimbabwean economy.

scholarly journals Quantile Dependence in Tourism Demand Time Series: Evidence in the Southern Italy Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3243
Author(s):  
Giovanni De Luca ◽  
Monica Rosciano
Keyword(s):  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Campania Region ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
High Quantiles ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Hotel Accommodation

Travel and tourism is an important economic activity in most countries around the world. In 2018, international tourist arrivals grew 5% to reach the 1.4 billion mark and at the same time export earnings generated by tourism have grown to USD 1.7 trillion. The rapid growth of the tourism industry has globally attracted the interest of researchers for a long time. The literature has tried to model tourism demand to analyze the effects of different factors and predict the future behavior of the demand. Forecasting of tourism demand is crucial not only for academia but for tourism industries too, especially in line with the principles of sustainable tourism. The hospitality branch is an important part of the tourism industry and accurate passenger flow forecasting is a key link in the governance of the resources of a destination or in revenue management systems. In this context, the paper studies the interdependence of tourism demand in one of the main Italian tourist destinations, the Campania region, using a quantile-on-quantile approach between overall and specific tourism demand. Data are represented by monthly arrivals and nights spent by residents and non-residents in hotels and complementary accommodations from January 2008 to December 2018. The results of the analysis show that the hotel-accommodation component of the tourism demand appears to be more vulnerable than extra-hotel accommodation component to the fluctuations of the overall tourism demand and this feature is more evident for the arrivals than for nights spent. Moreover, the dependence on high quantiles suggests strategy of diversification or market segmentation to avoid overtourism phenomena and/or carrying capacity problems. Conversely, dependence on low quantiles suggests the use of push strategies to stimulate tourism demand. Finally, the results suggest that it could be very useful if the stakeholders of the tourism sector in Campania focused their attention on the collaboration theory.

scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting Regional Tourism Demand Using the Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressive (BGVAR) Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. George Assaf ◽  
Gang Li ◽  
Haiyan Song ◽  
Mike G. Tsionas
Keyword(s):  
Regional Integration ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Regional Tourism ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Tourist Flows ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Global Vector

Increasing levels of global and regional integration have led to tourist flows between countries becoming closely linked. These links should be considered when modeling and forecasting international tourism demand within a region. This study introduces a comprehensive and accurate systematic approach to tourism demand analysis, based on a Bayesian global vector autoregressive (BGVAR) model. An empirical study of international tourist flows in nine countries in Southeast Asia demonstrates the ability of the BGVAR model to capture the spillover effects of international tourism demand in this region. The study provides clear evidence that the BGVAR model consistently outperforms three other alternative VAR model versions throughout one- to four-quarters-ahead forecasting horizons. The potential of the BGVAR model in future applications is demonstrated by its superiority in both modeling and forecasting tourism demand.

Alpine Trekkers and Tours: economic condition and its impacts on tourism industry of Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Syed Shaan Abbas ◽  
Muhammad Akhtar
Keyword(s):  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Marketing Strategies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Academic Level ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Masses ◽  
Trained Manpower

Learning outcomes The paper has the following learning outcomes: to understand the historical and geographical aspect of Pakistan vis-à-vis other countries of South East Asia and the world; to be able to understand the different marketing strategies of the tourism company; to gather the knowledge of many unknown facts which remain out of sight and hardly surface; to boost economy if its facts and figures are given due weight age and followed with true letter and spirit; and to give a big boost to an industry which remains mostly dormant for many decades. The ratio analysis of service sector is explained. How finances can be arranged in shortest time and generates profitability for the company is also discussed. Case overview/synopsis The study provides an overview on the following topics: lack of interest by the Government in promotion; training of tour operators and guide; and managing the expected income from this industry. This study makes the masses aware that how much potential exist in the field of tourism in Pakistan. How the tour operators find huge potential in all segments of tourism and how the big force of trained manpower can be formed and creates employment. Service sector mostly run on equity finances because of lack of collateral, how efficiently they manage the finance for the business year. It gives details of extensive marketing strategy, the huge profit margin in foreign currency and cost volume profit systems of tourism companies. Complexity academic level BBA, MBA and MS. Supplementary materials Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email [email protected] to request teaching notes. Subject code CSS 1: Accounting and Finance.

scholarly journals Global Development of International Tourism and Impact on the Economy of Ukraine

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 108
Author(s):  
Olena Moskvichova ◽  
Iryna Hryhoruk ◽  
Yuliia Marchenko ◽  
Yuliia Veretilnyk
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Structure ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Innovation Activity ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Tourist Flows ◽  
Tourist Flow

The article highlights the geopolitical aspects of the international tourism development in Ukraine as a global phenomenon that carries out economic, social and international and political action. In today's world, tourism has become a powerful industry, a huge complex in which the economic and social spheres are connected. The importance of tourism in international economic activity is constantly growing, and the market itself is acquiring new trends and features, affecting trade, transport and communications, agriculture and construction. The processes of globalization in the tourism market are characterized by changes in technology, modernization of transport infrastructure, internationalization of business activity and the creation of a regulatory mechanism. The potential of world tourist flows as factors of geopolitical influence is revealed, the structure of which reflects and influences the tendencies of international interaction. The main geopolitical factors influencing the dynamics and spatial organization of international tourist flows are structured. The world market of tourist services has a clear segmentation character. The main criteria for segmentation are motivational, age and regional ones. The general tendencies of development of the international tourism, a role and a place of Ukraine in the international tourist market are characterized. It is predicted that China will become the most popular tourist country in the near future. It is determined that due to the growth of intercontinental ties, which is based on the rapid development of vehicles and, above all, jet aircraft, as well as the desire of a significant number of people to visit the most remote and exotic corners of the Earth, tourism exchange between regions will develop more intensively than within regions. However, there is a growing tendency to increase the exchange of tourists between neighboring countries under conditions of normal relations between them and between countries with related languages. The main world events that have affected tourist flows in recent years are listed: Brexit, COVID-19, military actions in Eastern Ukraine and others. The analysis of international tourist flows in Ukraine was done, in particular their dynamics and spatial structure during 2010-2019 in the context of military-political aggression by Russia and the aggravation of Ukrainian-Russian interstate relations. It is established that the current dynamics of the international tourist flow in Ukraine is characterized by a sharp decrease in international visitors, slowing down the development of tourism and reformatting the spatial structure of the incoming and outgoing tourist flow. It is also noted that among the main factors hindering the development of the Ukrainian tourism industry are the unsatisfactory state of development of infrastructure and logistics of tourism, high prices, environmental and criminal risks, low innovation activity of tourism enterprises. It is concluded that international tourism is not only a passive participant in international relations, but also an active political actor who is able to act as a channel for establishing international trust and cooperation, a factor in maintaining political stability.

Dynamic Dependence between U.S. Inbound Visits and Exchange Rate

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 (6) ◽  
pp. 1035-1046
Author(s):  
Kuang-Liang Chang ◽  
Jui-Chuan Della Chang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Positive Dependence ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This article revisits the dynamic dependence between the U.S. international tourism demand and the exchange rate using a copula-based specification that features a time-varying and state-switching comovement structure. The empirical results find a state of high-volatile dependence during the oil price upsurge (2005M11-2006M09) and economic/financial crisis (2008M06-2011M06) and a state of low-volatile dependence during the remaining periods. During the former periods, a positive dependence between U.S. inbound visits and currency depreciation is indicated most often, and the magnitude of positive dependence varies dramatically. During the remaining periods, the positive and negative dependences coexist and interchange at a smooth pace. This finding implies that the exchange rate policy affects the tourism industry in the high-volatile dependence state but not in the low-volatile dependence state. The moderating role of crude oil price on the relationship between the international tourism demand and the exchange rate is also verified.

scholarly journals Tourism Demand Analysis Using Probabilistic Travel Model: A Study In Pokhara

Pravaha ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-63
Author(s):  
Dila Ram Bhandari
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Demand Analysis ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Foreign Earnings ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
The World

Tourism is now one of the largest industries in the world that has developed alongside the fascinating concept of eco-tourism. Nepal Tourism Policy 2009 identifies tourism sector as an important vehicle for economic and social development. Revenue from tourism sector is observed from foreign currency exchange made by tourists and tourism industries as proxy of income. According to Tourism Towards 2030, the number of international tourist arrivals worldwide is expected to increase by an average of 3.3% a year over the period 2010 to 2030. At the projected rate of growth, international tourist arrivals worldwide are expected to reach 1.4 billion by 2020, and 1.8 billion by the year 2030. Nepal aims to transform its tourism sector into one of the largest foreign exchange earners in 2016 by attracting 2.5 million high spending tourists. Tourism was ranked as the fifth largest source of foreign exchange earnings in 2012 and third largest in 2013 contributing 5.2 percent to total foreign earnings of the country. This study shows the tourism infrastructure as well as seasonal arrival of tourists in Nepal and to develop the probabilistic travel model on the basis of tourist perception which will help the tourism department for the further economic development of the area. R-Studio based on data from the sample period from 2008 to 2016. The formula presented in this study can be used by policy makers to calculate future foreign exchange earnings, employment, arrivals and prices related to tourism in Nepal. Pravaha Vol. 24, No. 1, 2018, Page: 58-63

scholarly journals PRACTICAL ASPECTS OF STUDYING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ON MATERIALS OF FOREIGN EDUCATIONAL PRACTICES IN GERMANY

2018 ◽  
pp. 163-172
Author(s):  
Vasyl Stetskyi
Keyword(s):  
Information Technologies ◽  
Numerical Data ◽  
Educational Practice ◽  
Practical Experience ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Educational Practices ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Methodological Guidelines

Aim: To bring attention to and highlight the significant role of foreign-language training for students in the areas of geography and tourism training. I would also like to demonstrate the positive side of the "Studienreise in Duetschland" training program of the German Academic Student Exchange Service, including the development of practical skills in international tourism. Method: The study is to analyze and systematize information on the development of international tourism in Germany derived directly from residents of the country's tourism business. The subject of research is the applied aspects of international tourism in Germany as well as the experience of organizing and operating the international tourism. Result: The article deals with the applied principles of training students and specialists in the tourism industry in Germany and analysis of the causal aspects of the development and functioning of international tourism in keeping with modern information technologies and mobility of population. The acquired knowledge and practical experience of tourists studies in the future, can be applied in the international segment of tourist services as well. Scientific news: A number of tourists and methodologists in general, considered and proposed methodological guidelines and recommendations for the conduct of educational practices at the international level. Definitely the world tourist market has a powerful resource potential and has invaluable experience in organizing and providing services based on the use of numerical data for students in leading tourist centers of Germany as well as meetings with scientists and specialists The author of the study highlights and analyzes the main organizational and teaching-methods and types that will work during international tourist training programs. Practical significance: The issue of international tourist training practices has not been adequately addressed in literature. Materials of the proposed study, the specifics of this type of tourism was paid little attention. The study provides a better understanding of the beginnings of leisure tourism. Key words: international tourism, practical aspects of international tourism development, international educational practice, German hospitality.

scholarly journals TOURISM – ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS. THE CASE OF ROMANIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 867-884
Author(s):  
Alina Badulescu ◽  
Daniel Badulescu ◽  
Ramona Simut ◽  
Simona Dzitac
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Long Run ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Academic Debate

The development of tourism is usually associated, in positive terms, with economic development, foreign currency inflows, employment opportunities, infrastructure improvements, sustainable development and poverty alleviation. However, the nature of the tourism-growth relationship is still a matter of academic debate, and, perhaps, an expression of the inconsistencies and contradictions of public policies designed to support this industry. Researchers and practitioners have not yet come to an agreement on a number of fundamental questions: does tourism stimulate economic growth or the converse, and whether the causality, if it does exist, is uni or bidirectional, is constant or can change its direction in the medium - or long run. The present paper investigates the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and international tourism in Romania, over the 1995–2016 period. Our results show that the causal effect of the GDP on the international tourist arrivals and on the international tourism receipts is significant in the long run in Romania. In the short-run, we find a unidirectional causal relationship from the international tourism receipts to GDP, and a bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and the number of international tourist arrivals.

International tourism demand forecasting with machine learning models: The power of the number of lagged inputs

2020 ◽  
pp. 135481662097695
Author(s):  
Jian-Wu Bi ◽  
Tian-Yu Han ◽  
Hui Li
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Optimal Number ◽  
Cutoff Point ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Machine Learning Models

This study explores how to select the optimal number of lagged inputs (NLIs) in international tourism demand forecasting. With international tourist arrivals at 10 European countries, the performances of eight machine learning models are evaluated using different NLIs. The results show that: (1) as NLIs increases, the error of most machine learning models first decreases rapidly and then tends to be stable (or fluctuates around a certain value) when NLIs reaches a certain cutoff point. The cutoff point is related to 12 and its multiples. This trend is not affected by the size of the test set; (2) for nonlinear and ensemble models, it is better to select one cycle of the data as the NLIs, while for linear models, multiple cycles are a better choice; (3) significantly different prediction results are obtained by different categories of models when the optimal NLIs are used.

Use of Intervention Models to Assess the Effects of the EU Presidency on Revenues from International Tourism

2000 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Smeral ◽  
M. Wüger
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Analytical Problem ◽  
Heuristic Approaches ◽  
Intervention Models ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
The Eu

A key factor in evaluating the economic benefits generated by an EU presidency is the revenue obtained from international tourism. The analytical problem can be solved by the application of heuristic approaches, which relate revenues from international tourist travel during the six-month presidency to an adequately chosen average or trend; or by using intervention models which are able to deal with the complex problem. The present study concentrates mainly on the second approach, using Austria as a case in point. The estimates found that the EU presidency had raised foreign currency revenues in Austria by about 3½% in the second half of 1998.

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