scholarly journals Valuation of Weather Manifested Rice Cultivation in Bangladesh: A Way Forward

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-64
Author(s):  
Afroza Chowdhury ◽  
Abdullah Al Mamun ◽  
Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Management Practice ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Crop Damage ◽  
Financial Benefit ◽  
Climatic Effects ◽  
Advisory Service ◽  
Good Management Practice ◽  
The Cost

Good crop yield entirely depends on good management practice and quality management of crops allied with authentic weather forecasting can reduce risk, crop damage, cost of production and increase the yield as well. Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) had aimed this study for quantifying the financial benefit of forecasting and validating micro climatological factors and their impacts on paddy production through experimentation and arranging for weather based agro meteorological advisory service delivery to the farmers applying the tools of ICT. A next-generation meso-scale numerical weather prediction system, WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model was used for generating atmospheric simulations based on real data (observations, analyses or idealized conditions). Field experiment was conducted in the areas of five different agro microclimatological conditions for Boro rice production, namely; Gazipur, Habiganj, Rajshahi, Barishal and Satkhira. Then the experimental fields were managed according to the weekly management advisory based on weather forecasts. Results obtained suggest that the application of weather predictability accrued a comparative rice yield benefit of 9-12% and a 3–5% reduction in the cost of cultivation. Countrywide application of agro-meteorological advisory service may pave the way for averting adverse climatic effects on agriculture.

Measuring the cost of environmental compliance for Waikato dairy farmers - a survey approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 77 ◽  
pp. 159-166
Author(s):  
T.O.R. Macdonald ◽  
J.S. Rowarth ◽  
F.G. Scrimgeour
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Data ◽  
Management Practice ◽  
Dairy Farm ◽  
Environmental Compliance ◽  
Dairy Farmers ◽  
The Past ◽  
Farm Systems ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Farm System ◽  
Survey Approach

The link between dairy farm systems and cost of environmental compliance is not always clear. A survey of Waikato dairy farmers was conducted to establish the real (non-modelled) cost of compliance with environmental regulation in the region. Quantitative and qualitative data were gathered to improve understanding of compliance costs and implementation issues for a range of Waikato farm systems. The average oneoff capital cost of compliance determined through a survey approach was $1.02 per kg milksolids, $1490 per hectare and $403 per cow. Costs experienced by Waikato farmers have exceeded average economic farm surplus for the region in the past 5 years. As regulation increases there are efficiencies to be gained through implementing farm infrastructure and farm management practice to best match farm system intensity. Keywords: Dairy, compliance, farm systems, nitrogen, Waikato

Pareto Set as a Model for Dispatching Resources in Emergency Centres (Preprint)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Guedes ◽  
Vasco Furtado ◽  
Tarcísio Pequeno ◽  
Joel Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Operational Research ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Pareto Set ◽  
Multi Objective Optimization ◽  
Pareto Dominance ◽  
Four Dimensions ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
The Best Approximation ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Cost

UNSTRUCTURED The article investigates policies for helping emergency-centre authorities for dispatching resources aimed at reducing goals such as response time, the number of unattended calls, the attending of priority calls, and the cost of displacement of vehicles. Pareto Set is shown to be the appropriated way to support the representation of policies of dispatch since it naturally fits the challenges of multi-objective optimization. By means of the concept of Pareto dominance a set with objectives may be ordered in a way that guides the dispatch of resources. Instead of manually trying to identify the best dispatching strategy, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm coupled with an Emergency Call Simulator uncovers automatically the best approximation of the optimal Pareto Set that would be the responsible for indicating the importance of each objective and consequently the order of attendance of the calls. The scenario of validation is a big metropolis in Brazil using one-year of real data from 911 calls. Comparisons with traditional policies proposed in the literature are done as well as other innovative policies inspired from different domains as computer science and operational research. The results show that strategy of ranking the calls from a Pareto Set discovered by the evolutionary method is a good option because it has the second best (lowest) waiting time, serves almost 100% of priority calls, is the second most economical, and is the second in attendance of calls. That is to say, it is a strategy in which the four dimensions are considered without major impairment to any of them.

scholarly journals ALPINE: Active Link Prediction Using Network Embedding

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 5043
Author(s):  
Xi Chen ◽  
Bo Kang ◽  
Jefrey Lijffijt ◽  
Tijl De Bie
Keyword(s):  
Active Learning ◽  
Protein Interactions ◽  
Link Prediction ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Network Embedding ◽  
Protein Protein Interactions ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Active Link

Many real-world problems can be formalized as predicting links in a partially observed network. Examples include Facebook friendship suggestions, the prediction of protein–protein interactions, and the identification of hidden relationships in a crime network. Several link prediction algorithms, notably those recently introduced using network embedding, are capable of doing this by just relying on the observed part of the network. Often, whether two nodes are linked can be queried, albeit at a substantial cost (e.g., by questionnaires, wet lab experiments, or undercover work). Such additional information can improve the link prediction accuracy, but owing to the cost, the queries must be made with due consideration. Thus, we argue that an active learning approach is of great potential interest and developed ALPINE (Active Link Prediction usIng Network Embedding), a framework that identifies the most useful link status by estimating the improvement in link prediction accuracy to be gained by querying it. We proposed several query strategies for use in combination with ALPINE, inspired by the optimal experimental design and active learning literature. Experimental results on real data not only showed that ALPINE was scalable and boosted link prediction accuracy with far fewer queries, but also shed light on the relative merits of the strategies, providing actionable guidance for practitioners.

scholarly journals Fengyun Meteorological Satellite Products for Earth System Science Applications

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Xian ◽  
Peng Zhang ◽  
Ling Gao ◽  
Ruijing Sun ◽  
Haizhen Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Sharing ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Vegetation Indices ◽  
Open Data ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Inversion Algorithm

AbstractFollowing the progress of satellite data assimilation in the 1990s, the combination of meteorological satellites and numerical models has changed the way scientists understand the earth. With the evolution of numerical weather prediction models and earth system models, meteorological satellites will play a more important role in earth sciences in the future. As part of the space-based infrastructure, the Fengyun (FY) meteorological satellites have contributed to earth science sustainability studies through an open data policy and stable data quality since the first launch of the FY-1A satellite in 1988. The capability of earth system monitoring was greatly enhanced after the second-generation polar orbiting FY-3 satellites and geostationary orbiting FY-4 satellites were developed. Meanwhile, the quality of the products generated from the FY-3 and FY-4 satellites is comparable to the well-known MODIS products. FY satellite data has been utilized broadly in weather forecasting, climate and climate change investigations, environmental disaster monitoring, etc. This article reviews the instruments mounted on the FY satellites. Sensor-dependent level 1 products (radiance data) and inversion algorithm-dependent level 2 products (geophysical parameters) are introduced. As an example, some typical geophysical parameters, such as wildfires, lightning, vegetation indices, aerosol products, soil moisture, and precipitation estimation have been demonstrated and validated by in-situ observations and other well-known satellite products. To help users access the FY products, a set of data sharing systems has been developed and operated. The newly developed data sharing system based on cloud technology has been illustrated to improve the efficiency of data delivery.

scholarly journals Potato Late Blight in the Columbia Basin: An Economic Analysis of the 1995 Epidemic

Plant Disease ◽  
1997 ◽  
Vol 81 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Johnson ◽  
T. F. Cummings ◽  
P. B. Hamm ◽  
R. C. Rowe ◽  
J. S. Miller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Late Blight ◽  
Management Practice ◽  
Columbia Basin ◽  
Copper Hydroxide ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
Late Season ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Mean Cost ◽  
First Time

The cost of managing late blight in potatoes during a severe epidemic caused by new, aggressive strains of Phytophthora infestans in the Columbia Basin of Washington and Oregon in 1995 was documented. The mean number of fungicide applications per field varied from 5.1 to 6.3 for early- and midseason potatoes, and from 8.2 to 12.3 for late-season potatoes in the northern and southern Columbia Basin, respectively. In 1994, a year when late blight was not severe, the mean number of fungicide applications per field made to early- and midseason potatoes was 2.0; whereas late-season potatoes received a mean of 2.5 applications. The mean per acre cost of individual fungicides applied varied from $4.90 for copper hydroxide to $36.00 for propamocarb + chlorothalonil. Total per acre expenses (application costs plus fungicide material) for protecting the crop from late blight during 1995 ranged from $106.77 to $110.08 for early and midseason potatoes in different regions of the Columbia Basin and from $149.30 to $226.75 for lateseason potatoes in the northern and southern Columbia Basin, respectively. Approximately 28% of the crop was chemically desiccated before harvest as a disease management practice for the first time in 1995, resulting in an additional mean cost of $34.48/acre or $1.3 million for the region. Harvested yields were 4 to 6% less than in 1994. The total cost of managing late blight in the Columbia Basin in 1995 is estimated to have approached $30 million.

Urban Finescale Forecasting Reveals Weather Conditions with Unprecedented Detail

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (12) ◽  
pp. 2675-2688 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Ronda ◽  
G. J. Steeneveld ◽  
B. G. Heusinkveld ◽  
J. J. Attema ◽  
A. A. M. Holtslag
Keyword(s):  
Local Governments ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Morphological Characteristics ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Human Thermal Comfort ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Urban Weather ◽  
Neighborhood Level

Abstract Urban landscapes impact the lives of urban dwellers by influencing local weather conditions. However, weather forecasting down to the street and neighborhood scale has been beyond the capabilities of numerical weather prediction (NWP) despite the fact that observational systems are now able to monitor urban climate at these scales. In this study, weather forecasts at intra-urban scales were achieved by exploiting recent advances in topographic element mapping and aerial photography as well as looking at detailed mappings of soil characteristics and urban morphological properties, which were subsequently incorporated into a specifically adapted Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The urban weather forecasting system (UFS) was applied to the Amsterdam, Netherlands, metropolitan area during the summer of 2015, where it produced forecasts for the city down to the neighborhood level (a few hundred meters). Comparing these forecasts to the dense network of urban weather station observations within the Amsterdam metropolitan region showed that the forecasting system successfully determined the impact of urban morphological characteristics and urban spatial structure on local temperatures, including the cooling effect of large water bodies on local urban temperatures. The forecasting system has important practical applications for end users such as public health agencies, local governments, and energy companies. It appears that the forecasting system enables forecasts of events on a neighborhood level where human thermal comfort indices exceeded risk thresholds during warm weather episodes. These results prove that worldwide urban weather forecasting is within reach of NWP, provided that appropriate data and computing resources become available to ensure timely and efficient forecasts.

scholarly journals Community Global Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) Package (CGOP): Assessment and Validation of the OSSE System Using an OSSE–OSE Intercomparison of Summary Assessment Metrics

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (10) ◽  
pp. 2061-2078 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sid-Ahmed Boukabara ◽  
Kayo Ide ◽  
Yan Zhou ◽  
Narges Shahroudi ◽  
Ross N. Hoffman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Simulation ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Real Data ◽  
New Techniques ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Individual System ◽  
Assessment Metrics ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment

AbstractObserving system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are used to simulate and assess the impacts of new observing systems planned for the future or the impacts of adopting new techniques for exploiting data or for forecasting. This study focuses on the impacts of satellite data on global numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Since OSSEs are based on simulations of nature and observations, reliable results require that the OSSE system be validated. This validation involves cycles of assessment and calibration of the individual system components, as well as the complete system, with the end goal of reproducing the behavior of real-data observing system experiments (OSEs). This study investigates the accuracy of the calibration of an OSSE system—here, the Community Global OSSE Package (CGOP) system—before any explicit tuning has been performed by performing an intercomparison of the OSSE summary assessment metrics (SAMs) with those obtained from parallel real-data OSEs. The main conclusion reached in this study is that, based on the SAMs, the CGOP is able to reproduce aspects of the analysis and forecast performance of parallel OSEs despite the simplifications employed in the OSSEs. This conclusion holds even when the SAMs are stratified by various subsets (the tropics only, temperature only, etc.).

scholarly journals Model error in weather forecasting

2001 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 357-371 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Orrell ◽  
L. Smith ◽  
J. Barkmeijer ◽  
T. N. Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Model Error ◽  
Local Model ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Rapid Divergence ◽  
Dependent Model

Abstract. Operational forecasting is hampered both by the rapid divergence of nearby initial conditions and by error in the underlying model. Interest in chaos has fuelled much work on the first of these two issues; this paper focuses on the second. A new approach to quantifying state-dependent model error, the local model drift, is derived and deployed both in examples and in operational numerical weather prediction models. A simple law is derived to relate model error to likely shadowing performance (how long the model can stay close to the observations). Imperfect model experiments are used to contrast the performance of truncated models relative to a high resolution run, and the operational model relative to the analysis. In both cases the component of forecast error due to state-dependent model error tends to grow as the square-root of forecast time, and provides a major source of error out to three days. These initial results suggest that model error plays a major role and calls for further research in quantifying both the local model drift and expected shadowing times.

scholarly journals Data driven global weather predictions at high resolutions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Taylor ◽  
Pablo Larraonndo ◽  
Bronis de Supinski
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Graphics Processing Units ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Atmospheric Science ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Research And Innovation ◽  
Future State ◽  
Graphics Processing ◽  
Quantities Of Interest

Abstract Society has benefited enormously from the continuous advancement in numerical weather prediction that has occurred over many decades driven by a combination of outstanding scientific, computational and technological breakthroughs. Here we demonstrate that data driven methods are now positioned to contribute to the next wave of major advances in atmospheric science. We show that data driven models can predict important meteorological quantities of interest to society such as global high resolution precipitation fields (0.25 degrees) and can deliver accurate forecasts of the future state of the atmosphere without prior knowledge of the laws of physics and chemistry. We also show how these data driven methods can be scaled to run on super-computers with up to 1024 modern graphics processing units (GPU) and beyond resulting in rapid training of data driven models, thus supporting a cycle of rapid research and innovation. Taken together, these two results illustrate the significant potential of data driven methods to advance atmospheric science and operational weather forecasting.

scholarly journals Cloud Brokering with Bundles: Multi-objective Optimization of Services Selection

2019 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 407-426
Author(s):  
Jedrzej Musial ◽  
Emmanuel Kieffer ◽  
Mateusz Guzek ◽  
Gregoire Danoy ◽  
Shyam S. Wagle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Optimization Problem ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Cloud Service ◽  
Optimal Choice ◽  
Cloud Services ◽  
Multi Objective Optimization ◽  
Problem Instances ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Special Case ◽  
Single Objective

Abstract Cloud computing has become one of the major computing paradigms. Not only the number of offered cloud services has grown exponentially but also many different providers compete and propose very similar services. This situation should eventually be beneficial for the customers, but considering that these services slightly differ functionally and non-functionally -wise (e.g., performance, reliability, security), consumers may be confused and unable to make an optimal choice. The emergence of cloud service brokers addresses these issues. A broker gathers information about services from providers and about the needs and requirements of the customers, with the final goal of finding the best match. In this paper, we formalize and study a novel problem that arises in the area of cloud brokering. In its simplest form, brokering is a trivial assignment problem, but in more complex and realistic cases this does not longer hold. The novelty of the presented problem lies in considering services which can be sold in bundles. Bundling is a common business practice, in which a set of services is sold together for the lower price than the sum of services’ prices that are included in it. This work introduces a multi-criteria optimization problem which could help customers to determine the best IT solutions according to several criteria. The Cloud Brokering with Bundles (CBB) models the different IT packages (or bundles) found on the market while minimizing (maximizing) different criteria. A proof of complexity is given for the single-objective case and experiments have been conducted with a special case of two criteria: the first one being the cost and the second is artificially generated. We also designed and developed a benchmark generator, which is based on real data gathered from 19 cloud providers. The problem is solved using an exact optimizer relying on a dichotomic search method. The results show that the dichotomic search can be successfully applied for small instances corresponding to typical cloud-brokering use cases and returns results in terms of seconds. For larger problem instances, solving times are not prohibitive, and solutions could be obtained for large, corporate clients in terms of minutes.

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