scholarly journals Cointegration of Macroeconomics Variables and Dow Jones Industrial Average Index on the Composite Stock Price Index In 2015-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 178-191
Author(s):  
Frisca Novia Sukmawati ◽  
Nadia Asandimitra Haryono
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
Dow Jones Industrial Average ◽  
Cointegration Relationship ◽  
Average Index

This research examines the cointegration of macroeconomic variables and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index toward IHSG. The Sampling data used is non probability sampling techniques by using historical monthly data from January 2015 to December 2019. The method used in this study are Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test for stationarity test, Johansen Test for Cointegration, and Error Correction Model for short-term relationships with eviews 10. The findings showed that DJIA Index not cointegrated with IHSG because investors are more responsive to global market and domestic sentiment. Exchange rates not cointegrated with the IHSG because exchange rate and IHSG movements do not always had a negative relationship. Interest rates are not cointegrated with IHSG because most of the sectors in the IDX affected by external sentiment than interest rates. Meanwhile, inflation have a cointegration relationship but does not have a short-term relationship with IHSG because inflation is generally known as a continuous increase in the price of goods as a whole. Crude oil have a cointegration relationship but does not have a short-term relationship with IHDG, which implies that an increase or decrease in crude oil in the short term can not affect IHSG.

scholarly journals THE ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICS OF ETHEREUM IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Олег Кудрявцев ◽  
Oleg Kudryavtsev ◽  
Кирилл Мозолев ◽  
Kirill Mozolev ◽  
Артур Чивчян ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Composite Index ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Nasdaq Composite Index ◽  
Dow Jones Industrial Average ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
Index Changes ◽  
Gold Futures ◽  
Average Index

The article presents an econometric analysis of the effect of stock indicators, such as Comex Gold futures, Dow Jones Industrial Average index and NASDAQ Composite, on the Ethereum cryptocurrency dynamics in the 100-day period. As part of the study, an econometric model of the dynamics of e-currency was built. The survey results show that when the Comex gold futures price changes by 1% on average, the Ethereum price changes by 5.01% in the same direction, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average index changes by 1%, the Ethereum price is 10.897%, and when the NASDAQ Composite index changes, the Ethereum price will change in the opposite direction to 3.59%

scholarly journals PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM SYARIAH (STUDI KASUS DI INDONESIA DAN MALAYSIA)

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
DESY TRISHARDIYANTI ADININGTYAS
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model

Abstract. The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Sharia Stock Price Index (Case Study in Indonesia and Malaysia). The purpose of this research is to know the effect of macroeconomic variables (inflation, exchange rate, world crude oil price and world gold price) on sharia stock price index in Indonesia and Malaysia. By using Error Correction Model as the method, this research utilizes time series monthly data from March 2015 until February 2018. The finding shows that in long-term, inflation in Indonesia, exchange rate of rupiah, world crude oil price and world gold price had significant effect on Jakarta Islamic Index. In short-term, inflation in Indonesia, world crude oil price, world gold price had not significant effect on Jakarta Islamic Index and exchange rate of rupiah had significant effect on Jakarta Islamic Index. Meanwhile, inflation in Malaysia, world crude oil price, world gold price had not significant effect on FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index in long-term and short-term. And exchange rate of ringgit had significant effect on FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index in long-term and short-term.   Abstrak. Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Syariah (Studi Kasus di Indonesia dan Malaysia). Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh variabel makroekonomi (inflasi, kurs, harga minyak mentah dunia dan harga emas dunia) terhadap indeks harga saham syariah di Indonesia dan Malaysia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Error Correction Model, dengan data time series bulanan dari Maret 2015 sampai dengan Februari 2018. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa pada jangka panjang, inflasi Indonesia, kurs rupiah, harga minyak mentah dunia dan harga emas dunia berpengaruh terhadap Jakarta Islamic Index. Pada jangka pendek, inflasi Indonesia, harga minyak mentah dunia, harga emas dunia tidak berpengaruh terhadap Jakarta Islamic Index dan kurs rupiah berpengaruh terhadap Jakarta Islamic Index. Sementara itu, inflasi Malaysia, harga minyak mentah dunia, harga emas dunia tidak berpengaruh terhadap FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index pada jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Dan kurs ringgit berpengaruh terhadap FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index pada jangka panjang dan jangka pendek.

scholarly journals Investigation of Co-Integration between Standard and Poor Index and Dow Jones Index in the New York Financial Market

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 197
Author(s):  
Ateyah Alawneh
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Global Market ◽  
International Financial Markets ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Jones Index ◽  
Integration Test

The study investigates the co-integration between (the S&P 500 index)and (Dow Jones index) the DJIA by busing the method Engle-granger co-integration Test. The study use annual data from 1990 to 2016.The study examines the stability of the index of S&P 500 and DJIA using the E-views program through a unit root test. The study found that the indicators are unstable, but they become stable when taking the first difference. This condition integrates (the S&P 500 index) and (the DJIA index) during the long-term co-integration test. The analysis shows that there is a negative co-integration between the two variables. It should be emphasized that the short-term dynamic analysis showed a positive co-integration between both indexes. The study concluded that there is an urgent need to take into account the long-term negative co-integration between (the S&P 500 index) and (the DJIA index) by investors in the New York market. Also, the study considers short-term positive integration between (the S&P 500 index) and (DJIA index), which turns into a negative relationship in the long term when  taking into account the markets linked with the New York market as a major global market and other international financial markets when making any financial investment. The result of this study could help users of major international financial markets in investment diversification to reduce risk.

scholarly journals The asymmetric responses of stock prices in US market

2021 ◽  
Vol 36 ◽  
pp. 01013
Author(s):  
Woan Lin Beh ◽  
Wen Khang Yew
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
The United States ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Dow Jones Industrial Average ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Average Index

Machine learning and data analytics are so popular in making trading much more efficient by helping the investors to identify opportunities and reduce trading costs. Before applying suitable predictive modelling algorithms, it is crucial for investors or policymaker to understand the nature of the stock data properly. This paper investigates the dependency of macroeconomic factors against the stock markets in the United States using the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. The analysis considered the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, NASDAQ Composite Index, and S&P 500 Index. Macroeconomic factors in this country such as consumer price index, export, interest rates, money supply, real effective exchange rates, total reserves, and gold price are considered in this study. In the findings, the NARDL approach shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index and S&P500 Index are having bi-directional positive asymmetric effects to each other in the short run. In short-run, increasing the consumer price index is found to have a negative effect on Dow Jones Industrial Average Index but with a positive effect on S&P500 Index. In conclusion, this study aids investors and other market participants in making a more efficient investment decision.

Forward start options under Heston affine jump-diffusions and stochastic interest rate

2021 ◽  
Vol 08 (01) ◽  
pp. 2150005
Author(s):  
Rehez Ahlip ◽  
Laurence A. F. Park ◽  
Ante Prodan ◽  
Stephen Weissenhofer
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Analytical Formula ◽  
Heston Model ◽  
Computational Finance ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Jump Diffusions ◽  
Price Process

This paper presents a generalization of forward start options under jump diffusion framework of Duffie et al. [Duffie, D, J Pan and K Singleton (2000). Transform analysis and asset pricing for affine jump-diffusions, Econometrica 68, 1343–1376.]. We assume, in addition, the short-term rate is governed by the CIR dynamics introduced in Cox et al. [Cox, JC, JE Ingersoll and SA Ross (1985). A theory of term structure of interest rates, Econometrica 53, 385–408.]. The instantaneous volatilities are correlated with the dynamics of the stock price process, whereas the short-term rate is assumed to be independent of the dynamics of the price process and its volatility. The main result furnishes a semi-analytical formula for the price of the Forward Start European call option. It is derived using probabilistic approach combined with the Fourier inversion technique, as developed in Ahlip and Rutkowski [Ahlip, R and M Rutkowski (2014). Forward start foreign exchange options under Heston’s volatility and CIR interest rates, Inspired By Finance Springer, pp. 1–27], Carr and Madan [Carr, P and D Madan (1999). Option valuation using the fast Fourier transform, Journal of Computational Finance 2, 61–73, Carr, P and D Madan (2009). Saddle point methods for option pricing, Journal of Computational Finance 13, 49–61] as well as Levendorskiĩ [Levendorskiĩ, S (2012). Efficient pricing and reliable calibration in the Heston model, International Journal of Applied Finance 15, 1250050].

Growth worries and politics will let Turkish lira fall

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Monetary Policy Committee ◽  
Global Liquidity ◽  
Turkish Lira

Subject Turkey's economic and monetary policy. Significance After the Central Bank (TCMB) left policy interest rates unchanged at the December 20 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the lira drifted above the 3.50/dollar mark. The currency has depreciated sharply since September, thanks to a combination of global market conditions, concerns about domestic political trends and Turkey’s international relations. As the United States prepares to tighten monetary policy further, the Turkish administration seems to have no strategy for dealing with lower global liquidity. Impacts Lira volatility will create short-term buying and selling opportunities for financial investors. Bank lenders may select their Turkish customers more carefully and demand higher returns. Demand from Turkey for most products other than essential commodities could be limited in 2017. The administration will go on blaming international factors for the problems of the economy while seeking to direct attention elsewhere.

scholarly journals STOCK PRICE INDEX (CSPI)IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE (IDX) PERIOD 2014-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-53
Author(s):  
Said Djamaluddin ◽  
Riki Ardoni ◽  
Aty Herawati
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Jones Index ◽  
Stock Price Index

This study aims to determine the effect of the BI rate, the dollar exchange rate, the yuan exchange rate, the Dow Jones index, the Shanghai index and world oil prices on the composite stock price index (CSPI). The data used is the period from January 2014 to December 2018 with the multiple regression analysis method. The results showed that the BI rate, Dollar Exchange, Yuan Exchange, Dow Jones, SSE Composite Index and WTI were able to explain the 91.8% effect on CSPI and the remaining 8.2% explained by other variables not examined. T test results show that partially BI interest rates, the yuan and Shanghai exchange rates do not have a significant effect on CSPI. While the dollar exchange rate, Dow Jones Index and world crude oil prices have a significant influence on the composite stock price index (CSPI) with coefficients respectively - 0.41705, +0.21245 and -7.86373. The independent variable that has the most dominant influence on CSPI is Crude Oil (WTI).

Perspectives on inflation Targeting Regime in Russia

2014 ◽  
pp. 107-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Andryushin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indirect Control ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Private And Public

The paper analyzes monetary policy of the Bank of Russia from 2008 to 2014. It presents the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators testifying to inability of the Bank of Russia to transit to inflation targeting regime. It is shown that the presence of short-term interest rates in the top borders of the percentage corridor does not allow to consider the key rate as a basic tool of monetary policy. The article justifies that stability of domestic prices is impossible with-out exchange rate stability. It is proved that to decrease excessive volatility on national consumer and financial markets it is reasonable to apply a policy of managing financial account, actively using for this purpose direct and indirect control tools for the cross-border flows of the private and public capital.

Using Machine Learning Algorithms on Prediction of Stock Price

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 84-99
Author(s):  
Li-Pang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Historical Database ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

In this paper, we investigate analysis and prediction of the time-dependent data. We focus our attention on four different stocks are selected from Yahoo Finance historical database. To build up models and predict the future stock price, we consider three different machine learning techniques including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). By treating close price, open price, daily low, daily high, adjusted close price, and volume of trades as predictors in machine learning methods, it can be shown that the prediction accuracy is improved.

Economic Turmoil in Islamic Banking Investment

ETIKONOMI ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Budiandru Budiandru ◽  
Sari Yuniarti
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Investment Financing ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Operational Activities

Investment financing is one of the operational activities of Islamic banking to encourage the real sector. This study aims to analyze the effect of economic turmoil on investment financing, analyze the response to investment financing, and analyze each variable's contribution in explaining the diversity of investment financing. This study uses monthly time series data from 2009 to 2020 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis. The results show that the exchange rate, inflation, and interest rates significantly affect Islamic banking investment financing in the long term. The response to investment financing is the fastest to achieve stability when it responds to shocks to the composite stock price index. Inflation is the most significant contribution in explaining diversity in investment financing. Islamic banking should increase the proportion of funding for investment. Customers can have a larger business scale to encourage economic growth, with investment financing increasing.JEL Classification: E22, G11, G24How to Cite:Budiandru., & Yuniarti, S. (2020). Economic Turmoil in Islamic Banking Investment. Etikonomi: Jurnal Ekonomi, 19(2), xx – xx. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v19i2.17206.

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