scholarly journals E-Fraud and Bank Performance: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 06 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
TYONA Timothy ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Internal Control ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bank Performance ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Online Fraud ◽  
Adf Test

This study examines e-fraud and bank performance: empirical evidence from Nigeria. Expo facto research design was used while time series data for the period of ten (10) years sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical Bulletin. Unit root test and correlation matrix was used as a diagnostic tests. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test is used to test for stationarity. The results of the stationarity or unit root test show that all the variables, return on equity (ROE), Automated Teller Machine Fraud (ATF) and Online Fraud (OLF) have unit roots and are only stationary at first difference and integrated of order one I (1). The fully modified least squares regression (FMOLS) is used for the analysis. The result of the study indicates that both variables, online fraud, (OLF) and ATM fraud (ATF) show negative effect on bank performance proxied in Nigeria in line with a priori expectation. In order words, fraud and fraudulent activities impede on the profitability of the banks. Based on the results obtained from the regression and the analysis conducted, the study recommends among others that bank managers should strengthen their internal control systems at all times. The regulatory authorities should be up and doing concerning their supervisory functions. Appropriate disciplinary measures should be taken against culprits of e-frauds so as deter others with such intentions. Also, banks should hold regular trainings for their Information Technology staff to counter the activities of fraudsters that use electronic means to commit fraud.

scholarly journals The Effects of External Debts on Economic Growth of Kyrgyzstan

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tolkun Zhumakunova ◽  
Zhainagul Kydyralieva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Adf Test

In developing countries, insufficient internal sources cause the increase of need on external sources. These countries in order to maintain their economic growth apply for external debt to cover the gap of foreign currency and savings. After the collapse of Soviet Union, Kyrgyzstan began to use external funds. It is very important to use these sources in accurate areas and efficiently. Most empirical studies indicate a negative correlation between foreign debt and economic growth, especially in those countries whose foreign debts are relatively high. This work examines the correlation between foreign debt and economic growth in Kyrgyz economy. Toward this objective, it uses the economic indicators of Kyrgyzstan between 1993 and 2015. The stationarity of time series data used in this study was tested by the ADF test. Than a least-squares regression analysis is performed. According to the findings of study, foreign debt in Kyrgyzstan have a negative impact on economic growth. According to results foreign debt should be reduced in order to increase the level of economic growth in Kyrgyzstan.

scholarly journals Economic Transformation in Bangladesh and the Income Velocity of Broad Money: An Econometric Analysis

2019 ◽  
pp. 408-417
Author(s):  
Ms. Sharmina Khanom
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Velocity Of Money

This study has undertaken an econometric analysis of economic transformation and income velocity of broad money. To find out the relevant determinants of income velocity of money this paper used time series data on year basis. This paper focus to discover the key determinants of the velocity of money in Bangladesh using the Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) unit root test to inspect the stationary, Engle-Granger residual-based cointegration approach to demonstrate the co-integrating association among variables. The main conclusions of this paper are: (i) relationship exists between the velocity of money and financial development. Other important variables that determine GDP growth show a negative relationship with the velocity of money but maintain a positive relationship with the deposit interest rate. Finally, this study concludes by giving some policy recommends for Bangladesh with respect to the velocity of broad money and the monetary policy.

scholarly journals Economic Growth, Inflation and Monetary Policy in Pakistan: Preliminary Empirical Estimates

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 321-333
Author(s):  
Hina Ali ◽  
Malka Liaquat ◽  
Noreen Safdar ◽  
Saeed ur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Empirical Estimates

In economic policy, construction Inflation is a core variable to be considered that determines the economic activity. To make a suitable monetary policy, it is very essential to check the price level and later on, many other variables are considered to achieve the goal. This study aims to reveal the affiliation of inflation on the growth of economic activities in Pakistan. Time series data set for the period 1989-2020 was used to have the empirical estimates.  Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test is employed to check the unit root of the time series and Auto Regressive Distributive Lag techniques are used for empirical estimates. The present research uses Inflation as a dependent variable and Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Money Supply, and Exchange Rate as the explanatory variables of the study. The findings of this analysis reveal that there's an antagonistic relation between Inflation and GDP.

Into the Civic life: The Nexus of Urbanization, Education and Women’s Empowerment in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 212-222
Author(s):  
Muhammad Abdullah ◽  
Ayza Shoukat ◽  
Muhammad Gulzaib Chaudhary
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Women's Empowerment ◽  
Women’S Empowerment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Depth Analysis

Women comprise nearly 50 percent of the population of Pakistan which is enriched with a variety of regional, cultural, and ethnic values.  These values are traditionally responsible for limiting opportunities for women and keeping them less empowered. This study examines the link between education and urbanization that is empowering women in Pakistan. Time series data for the period of 1980 to 2019 has been used for empirical analysis. The stationarity of data has been checked by using the ADF unit root test. All the variables used in the study have a unit root at the level and become stationary at first difference. Johansen's co-integration technique is utilized to check the long-run relationship between the variables used in the study. Instead of using any single variable, we have constructed the Women Empowerment Index (WEI) by using multiple women-related indicators for in-depth analysis. Empirical findings indicate that women's empowerment is positively associated with education and urbanization in Pakistan. Other controlled variables include domestic credit with a positive association and inflation with a negative association. The study shows that empowering women is sensitive to urbanization and education. There must be women-specific educational and training institutions across the country with a special focus on rural areas for equal availability of opportunities for women of all cultures. Urbanization provides greater social, economic and political opportunities for women. Same opportunities should be provided for women in rural areas to make them more empowered. Moreover, control of inflation and the provision of credit on easy terms will also help to enhance women's contribution to economic activity in Pakistan.

scholarly journals Tinjauan terhadap Metode Ekonometrika Lanjutan

2003 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-74
Author(s):  
Telisa Aulia Falianty
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Theory Of Evolution

Econometric models have been played an increasingly important role in empirical analysis in economics. This paper provides an overview on some advanced econometric methods that increasingly used in empirical studies.A panel data combines features of both time series and cross section data. Because of increasing availability of panel data in economic sciences, panel data regression models are being increasingly used by researcher. Related to panel data model, there are some methods that will be discussed here such as fixed effect and random effect. A new approach to panel data that developed by Im, Shin, and Pesaran (2002) for testing unit root in heterogenous panel is included in this overview.When we work with time series data, there are many problems that we must handle, most of them are unit root test, cointegration among non stationary variables, and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Provided these problems, author also review about ADF and Philips-Perron test. An approch to cointegration analysis developed by Pesaran (1999), ARCH and GARCH model are also interesting to be discussed here.Bayesian econometric, that less known than classical econometric, is includcd in this overview. The genctic algorithm, a relatively new method in econometric, has bcen increasingly employed the behavior of economic agents in macroeconomic models. The genetic algorithm is based on thc process of Darwin’s Theory of Evolution. By starting with a set of potential solutions and changing them during several iterations, the Genetic Algorithm hopes to converge on the most ‘fit’ solutions.

UNIT ROOT TESTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE BREAKS IN VARIANCE

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (02) ◽  
pp. 345-361
Author(s):  
SOO-BIN JEONG ◽  
BONG-HWAN KIM ◽  
TAE-HWAN KIM ◽  
HYUNG-HO MOON
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Innovation Variance ◽  
Multiple Breaks

Spurious rejections of the standard Dickey–Fuller (DF) test caused by a single variance break have been reported and some solutions to correct the problem have been proposed in the literature. Kim et al. (2002) put forward a correctly-sized unit root test robust to a single variance break, called the KLN test. However, there can be more than one break in variance in time series data as documented in Zhou and Perron (2008), so allowing only one break can be too restrictive. In this paper, we show that multiple breaks in variance can generate spurious rejections not only by the standard DF test but also by the KLN test. We then propose a bootstrap-based unit root test that is correctly-sized in the presence of multiple breaks in variance. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the proposed test performs well regardless of the number of breaks and the location of the breaks in innovation variance.

scholarly journals A Simple Integration Order Test: An Alternative to Unit Root Testing

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 77-85
Author(s):  
C. G. Amaefula
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Test Procedure ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Stationary Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Integration Order

The paper introduces order of integration test (OIT) which serves as a simple alternative to unit root test built generally using auxiliary autoregressive AAR(3) model. The parametric boundary conditions necessary and sufficient for testing the null hypothesis that the non-stationary variable under test is integrated order zero I(0) were estimated via generalized least squares (GLS). The decision on the hypothesis is evaluated using t-statistic. The test procedure was applied to a simulated non-stationary series (y1) of sample size n = 2000 and a known non-stationary time series data (y2) with two unit roots. The results showed that y1 is integrated order one (I(1)) and y2 is I(2). These results were confirmed by Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF); Phillips-Perron (PP); Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS); Elliot, Rothenberg, and Stock Point Optimal (ERS) and Ng and Perron (NP) unit root tests. For logarithm transformed variable, the divergent opinions of other unit root tests in clear-cut solution of the integrated order of such variable makes the new test procedure a better alternative. Nevertheless, the simplicity and aptness of the integration order test give it leverage over conventional methods of unit root test.

scholarly journals Twin Deficit Hypothesis: A Case of Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farrah Yasmin
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Adf Test

The prime motive of this study is to scrutinize the twin deficit for annual time series data over the period 1990-2010 for Pakistan. Twin deficit hypothesis expressed that an expansion in budget deficit will ground for rise in current account deficit. To diagnose affiliation amongst couple of variables, applied Unit root test (ADF-test), Johansen cointegration technique, Impulse response function and Granger causality test. The Granger causality demonstrate that the causality direction travel from current account deficit to budget deficit. When current account deficit occurs it leads to budget deficit. So the finding proves that there is a positive connection among both variables. Investigations are most reliable for Pakistan economy. Finally, this study confirms the rapport amid current account deficit and budget deficit.

scholarly journals Does Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from Albania

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Sam Hobbs ◽  
Dimitrios Paparas ◽  
Mostafa E. AboElsoud
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Series Data

Albania has experienced a rapid transition from a centrally planned economy to a mixed economy since the fall of communism in 1989. Policy changes, trade liberalization, and privatization have come about at a rapid pace, allowing foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade to become key components of Albania’s economy. Against this backdrop, this study investigates the relationships among FDI, trade, and economic growth in Albania. Annual time-series data were obtained from the World Bank. Then, the following econometric tests were performed on the variables representing FDI inflows, exports, and GDP as proxies for FDI, trade, and economic growth: the unit root test; the unit root test with a structural break; Johansen cointegration analysis; the error correction model; and the Granger causality test. The results revealed a long-term relationship between FDI, trade, and economic growth. The Granger causality tests found unidirectional causality. Economic growth brought about exports and FDI in the short term but not vice versa. In conclusion, policymakers need to design policies that promote technology-based, export-promoting FDI to meet the needs of the economy and develop specialized sectors that are competitive in the global market. Furthermore, the salient takeaway is that the penetration of export markets should be promoted as much as the furtherance of FDI.

scholarly journals Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 46-56
Author(s):  
JOSEPH BIDEMI OBAYORI ◽  
George-Anokwuru Chioma Chidinma B.
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Order Zero ◽  
Ardl Model

Purpose: Financial inclusion entails the delivery of financial services to individuals and businesses at segments of the society at a reasonable rate that meets their desired transactions. In view of this, the paper examined financial inclusion and economic growth in Nigeria from 1981-2018. Methods: The ARDL model was used to analyze the annual time series data collected from the CBN Statistical Bulletin and the World Bank report. The augmented Dickey Fully (ADF) unit root test, to test for stationarity of the variables preceded the ARDL model.    Results: The ADF unit root test results showed that the dependent variable was stationary at order zero I(0), while the independent variables were stationary at order one I(1). Based on the first-hand results, it was revealed that both in the short-run and long-run, access and effective usage of financial services bring about a significant increase in economic growth. But per capita income has a negative but significant relationship with economic growth.  Implications: The study conforms to finance-led growth theory which averred that the financial system is a positive function of economic growth. Based on these findings, the paper recommended that more efforts needed to be done to enhance and extend financial inclusion services such as electronic transaction in the form of POS, ATM, mobile money, etc to all rural communities in Nigeria as well as financial literacy and engagement of low-income people in the formal financial services in order to increase economic growth.

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