scholarly journals Don’t abandon your mask (and other public health measures) quite yet.

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (S5) ◽  
pp. 4-6
Author(s):  
R. Amour Forse ◽  
Anthony O. Obinna ◽  
Manish Singh
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Healthcare Professionals ◽  
Hand Washing ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Long Time

With the implementation of Covid-19 vaccines there has been a sence to be less vigulent with the public health measures, such as masks, social distancing, quarantee, and hand washing. Historically these measures have been around for a long time. During that time and recntly they have been very effective. Based on these observations, healthcare professionals should not abdondon them but make them an important part of their daily regime.

scholarly journals To Follow or Not to Follow: Social Norms and Civic Duty during a Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 273-278
Author(s):  
Laura French Bourgeois ◽  
Allison Harell ◽  
Laura B. Stephenson
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Collective Action ◽  
Social Norms ◽  
Hand Washing ◽  
Elected Officials ◽  
Medical Systems ◽  
Civic Duty ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Physical Isolation

The outbreak of COVID-19 has put substantial pressure on individuals to adapt and change their behaviours. As the hope of a vaccine remains at least a year away, everyone is urged to take action to slow the spread of the virus. Thus, “flattening the curve” has become vital in preventing medical systems from being overrun, and it relies on massive collective action by citizens to follow specific public health measures such as physical distancing, hand washing, and physical isolation for vulnerable individuals. Despite the recommendations, the public has often been confronted with the reality that some individuals are not respecting them, including elected officials (Aguilar, 2020).

scholarly journals Flexible, Freely Available Stochastic Individual Contact Model for Exploring COVID-19 Intervention and Control Strategies: Development and Simulation (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Churches ◽  
Louisa Jorm
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Local Areas ◽  
Individual Contact ◽  
Sydney Australia

BACKGROUND Throughout March 2020, leaders in countries across the world were making crucial decisions about how and when to implement public health interventions to combat the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). They urgently needed tools to help them to explore what will work best in their specific circumstances of epidemic size and spread, and feasible intervention scenarios. OBJECTIVE We sought to rapidly develop a flexible, freely available simulation model for use by modelers and researchers to allow investigation of how various public health interventions implemented at various time points might change the shape of the COVID-19 epidemic curve. METHODS “COVOID” (COVID-19 Open-Source Infection Dynamics) is a stochastic individual contact model (ICM), which extends the ICMs provided by the open-source EpiModel package for the R statistical computing environment. To demonstrate its use and inform urgent decisions on March 30, 2020, we modeled similar intervention scenarios to those reported by other investigators using various model types, as well as novel scenarios. The scenarios involved isolation of cases, moderate social distancing, and stricter population “lockdowns” enacted over varying time periods in a hypothetical population of 100,000 people. On April 30, 2020, we simulated the epidemic curve for the three contiguous local areas (population 287,344) in eastern Sydney, Australia that recorded 5.3% of Australian cases of COVID-19 through to April 30, 2020, under five different intervention scenarios and compared the modeled predictions with the observed epidemic curve for these areas. RESULTS COVOID allocates each member of a population to one of seven compartments. The number of times individuals in the various compartments interact with each other and their probability of transmitting infection at each interaction can be varied to simulate the effects of interventions. Using COVOID on March 30, 2020, we were able to replicate the epidemic response patterns to specific social distancing intervention scenarios reported by others. The simulated curve for three local areas of Sydney from March 1 to April 30, 2020, was similar to the observed epidemic curve in terms of peak numbers of cases, total numbers of cases, and duration under a scenario representing the public health measures that were actually enacted, including case isolation and ramp-up of testing and social distancing measures. CONCLUSIONS COVOID allows rapid modeling of many potential intervention scenarios, can be tailored to diverse settings, and requires only standard computing infrastructure. It replicates the epidemic curves produced by other models that require highly detailed population-level data, and its predicted epidemic curve, using parameters simulating the public health measures that were enacted, was similar in form to that actually observed in Sydney, Australia. Our team and collaborators are currently developing an extended open-source COVOID package comprising of a suite of tools to explore intervention scenarios using several categories of models.

scholarly journals Flexible, Freely Available Stochastic Individual Contact Model for Exploring COVID-19 Intervention and Control Strategies: Development and Simulation

10.2196/18965 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. e18965 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Churches ◽  
Louisa Jorm
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Local Areas ◽  
Individual Contact ◽  
Sydney Australia

Background Throughout March 2020, leaders in countries across the world were making crucial decisions about how and when to implement public health interventions to combat the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). They urgently needed tools to help them to explore what will work best in their specific circumstances of epidemic size and spread, and feasible intervention scenarios. Objective We sought to rapidly develop a flexible, freely available simulation model for use by modelers and researchers to allow investigation of how various public health interventions implemented at various time points might change the shape of the COVID-19 epidemic curve. Methods “COVOID” (COVID-19 Open-Source Infection Dynamics) is a stochastic individual contact model (ICM), which extends the ICMs provided by the open-source EpiModel package for the R statistical computing environment. To demonstrate its use and inform urgent decisions on March 30, 2020, we modeled similar intervention scenarios to those reported by other investigators using various model types, as well as novel scenarios. The scenarios involved isolation of cases, moderate social distancing, and stricter population “lockdowns” enacted over varying time periods in a hypothetical population of 100,000 people. On April 30, 2020, we simulated the epidemic curve for the three contiguous local areas (population 287,344) in eastern Sydney, Australia that recorded 5.3% of Australian cases of COVID-19 through to April 30, 2020, under five different intervention scenarios and compared the modeled predictions with the observed epidemic curve for these areas. Results COVOID allocates each member of a population to one of seven compartments. The number of times individuals in the various compartments interact with each other and their probability of transmitting infection at each interaction can be varied to simulate the effects of interventions. Using COVOID on March 30, 2020, we were able to replicate the epidemic response patterns to specific social distancing intervention scenarios reported by others. The simulated curve for three local areas of Sydney from March 1 to April 30, 2020, was similar to the observed epidemic curve in terms of peak numbers of cases, total numbers of cases, and duration under a scenario representing the public health measures that were actually enacted, including case isolation and ramp-up of testing and social distancing measures. Conclusions COVOID allows rapid modeling of many potential intervention scenarios, can be tailored to diverse settings, and requires only standard computing infrastructure. It replicates the epidemic curves produced by other models that require highly detailed population-level data, and its predicted epidemic curve, using parameters simulating the public health measures that were enacted, was similar in form to that actually observed in Sydney, Australia. Our team and collaborators are currently developing an extended open-source COVOID package comprising of a suite of tools to explore intervention scenarios using several categories of models.

scholarly journals Understanding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on well-being and virtual care for people living with dementia and care partners living in the community

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
P Roach ◽  
A Zwiers ◽  
E Cox ◽  
K Fischer ◽  
A Charlton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Lived Experience ◽  
Neuropsychiatric Symptoms ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Care Partners ◽  
Informal Supports ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated public health measures that have impacted the provision of care for people living with dementia and their families. Additionally, the isolation that results from social distancing may be harming well-being for families, as formal and informal supports become less accessible. For those with living with dementia and experiencing agitation, social distancing may be even harder to maintain, or social distancing could potentially aggravate dementia-related neuropsychiatric symptoms. To understand the lived experience of social and physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada we remotely interviewed 21 participants who normally attend a dementia specialty clinic in Calgary, Alberta, during a period where essential businesses were closed and healthcare had abruptly transitioned to telemedicine. The impacts of the public health measures in response to the pandemic emerged in three main categories of experience: 1) personal; 2) health services; and 3) health status (of both person living with dementia and care partner). This in-depth understanding of the needs and experiences of the pandemic for people living with dementia suggests that innovative means are urgently needed to facilitate provision of remote medicine and also social interaction and integration.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in Southeast Asia: Implications for workers and unions

2021 ◽  
pp. 002218562110000
Author(s):  
Michele Ford ◽  
Kristy Ward
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Industrial Relations ◽  
First Year ◽  
Labour Relations ◽  
The Public ◽  
Market Effects ◽  
Export Orientation ◽  
Health Measures

The labour market effects in Southeast Asia of the COVID-19 pandemic have attracted considerable analysis from both scholars and practitioners. However, much less attention has been paid to the pandemic’s impact on legal protections for workers’ and unions’ rights, or to what might account for divergent outcomes in this respect in economies that share many characteristics, including a strong export orientation in labour-intensive industries and weak industrial relations institutions. Having described the public health measures taken to control the spread of COVID-19 in Indonesia, Cambodia and Vietnam, this article analyses governments’ employment-related responses and their impact on workers and unions in the first year of the pandemic. Based on this analysis, we conclude that the disruption caused to these countries’ economies, and societies, served to reproduce existing patterns of state–labour relations rather than overturning them.

scholarly journals The potential dangers of not understanding COVID-19 public health restrictions in dementia: “It’s a groundhog day – every single day she does not understand why she can’t go out for a walk”

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Clarissa Giebel ◽  
Kerry Hanna ◽  
Manoj Rajagopal ◽  
Aravind Komuravelli ◽  
Jacqueline Cannon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cognitive Deficits ◽  
Third Sector ◽  
Cognitive Capacity ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Third Sector Organisations ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Second Wave

Abstract Background Sudden public health restrictions can be difficult to comprehend for people with cognitive deficits. However, these are even more important for them to adhere to due to their increased levels of vulnerability, particularly to COVID-19. With a lack of previous evidence, we explored the understanding and changes in adherence to COVID-19 public health restrictions over time in people living with dementia (PLWD). Methods Unpaid carers and PLWD were interviewed over the phone in April 2020, shortly after the nationwide UK lockdown, with a proportion followed up from 24th June to 10th July. Participants were recruited via social care and third sector organisations across the UK, and via social media. Findings A total of 70 interviews (50 baseline, 20 follow-up) were completed with unpaid carers and PLWD. Five themes emerged: Confusion and limited comprehension; Frustration and burden; Putting oneself in danger; Adherence to restrictions in wider society; (Un) changed perceptions. Most carers reported limited to no understanding of the public health measures in PLWD, causing distress and frustration for both the carer and the PLWD. Due to the lack of understanding, some PLWD put themselves in dangerous situations without adhering to the restrictions. PLWD with cognitive capacity who participated understood the measures and adhered to these. Discussion In light of the new second wave of the pandemic, public health measures need to be simpler for PLWD to avoid unwilful non-adherence. Society also needs to be more adaptive to the needs of people with cognitive disabilities more widely, as blanket rules cause distress to the lives of those affected by dementia.

scholarly journals The effect of social distancing on the reach of an epidemic in social networks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Gutin ◽  
Tomohiro Hirano ◽  
Sung-Ha Hwang ◽  
Philip R. Neary ◽  
Alexis Akira Toda
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Social Networks ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
Simulation Results

AbstractHow does social distancing affect the reach of an epidemic in social networks? We present Monte Carlo simulation results of a susceptible–infected–removed with social distancing model. The key feature of the model is that individuals are limited in the number of acquaintances that they can interact with, thereby constraining disease transmission to an infectious subnetwork of the original social network. While increased social distancing typically reduces the spread of an infectious disease, the magnitude varies greatly depending on the topology of the network, indicating the need for policies that are network dependent. Our results also reveal the importance of coordinating policies at the ‘global’ level. In particular, the public health benefits from social distancing to a group (e.g. a country) may be completely undone if that group maintains connections with outside groups that are not following suit.

scholarly journals Epidemiological modelling of the health and economic effects of COVID-19 control in Australia’s second wave

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Quentin Grafton ◽  
John Parslow ◽  
Tom Kompas ◽  
Kathryn Glass ◽  
Emily Banks
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Detection Strategies

Abstract Background We investigated the public health and economy outcomes of different levels of social distancing to control a ‘second wave’ outbreak in Australia and identify implications for public health management of COVID-19. Methods Individual-based and compartment models were used to simulate the effects of different social distancing and detection strategies on Australian COVID-19 infections and the economy from March to July 2020. These models were used to evaluate the effects of different social distancing levels and the early relaxation of suppression measures, in terms of public health and economy outcomes. Results The models, fitted to observations up to July 2020, yielded projections consistent with subsequent cases and showed that better public health outcomes and lower economy costs occur when social distancing measures are more stringent, implemented earlier and implemented for a sufficiently long duration. Early relaxation of suppression results in worse public health outcomes and higher economy costs. Conclusions Better public health outcomes (reduced COVID-19 fatalities) are positively associated with lower economy costs and higher levels of social distancing; achieving zero community transmission lowers both public health and economy costs compared to allowing community transmission to continue; and early relaxation of social distancing increases both public health and economy costs.

scholarly journals Harnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerardo Chowell ◽  
Sushma Dahal ◽  
Raquel Bono ◽  
Kenji Mizumoto
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Contact Network ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

AbstractTo ensure the safe operation of schools, workplaces, nursing homes, and other businesses during COVID-19 pandemic there is an urgent need to develop cost-effective public health strategies. Here we focus on the cruise industry which was hit early by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 40 cruise ships reporting COVID-19 infections. We apply mathematical modeling to assess the impact of testing strategies together with social distancing protocols on the spread of the novel coronavirus during ocean cruises using an individual-level stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We model the contact network, the potential importation of cases arising during shore excursions, the temporal course of infectivity at the individual level, the effects of social distancing strategies, different testing scenarios characterized by the test’s sensitivity profile, and testing frequency. Our findings indicate that PCR testing at embarkation and daily testing of all individuals aboard, together with increased social distancing and other public health measures, should allow for rapid detection and isolation of COVID-19 infections and dramatically reducing the probability of onboard COVID-19 community spread. In contrast, relying only on PCR testing at embarkation would not be sufficient to avert outbreaks, even when implementing substantial levels of social distancing measures.

scholarly journals The Disillusioned Comfort with COVID-19 and the Potential of Convalescent Plasma and Cell Therapy

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 096368972094071
Author(s):  
Mia C. Borlongan ◽  
Maximillian C. Borlongan ◽  
Paul R. Sanberg
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Stem Cells ◽  
Immune System ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Hand Washing ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Immunomodulatory Properties ◽  
Recommended Guidelines ◽  
Potential Use

Coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID-19 is highly infectious, which can lead to acute and chronic debilitating symptoms, as well as mortality. The advent of safe and effective vaccines or antiviral drugs remains distant in the future. Practical public health measures, such as social distancing, hand washing, and wearing a face mask, are the current recommended guidelines by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for limiting the spread of the virus. Weakened immune system and aberrant inflammation represent a major pathological symptom of COVID-19 patients. Based on the unique immunomodulatory properties of both convalescent plasma and stem cells, we discuss here their potential use for treating COVID-19.

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