scholarly journals Methodological Approaches to Forecasting Bread Prices in Ukraine

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 97-106
Author(s):  
Ludmila Lobotska ◽  
Olexander Pavlov ◽  
Serhii Didukh ◽  
Viktoriia Samofatova ◽  
Olha Frum
Keyword(s):  
First Grade ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Wheat Bread ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Product Price ◽  
Current State ◽  
Operational Forecasts ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Regional Aspect ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

The article examines the current state of the bread and bakery market in Ukraine on the basis of the exponential smoothing method. An important aspect of the analysis of the bakery industry state is the issue of pricing for the number one product in Ukraine – bread and bakery products. The purpose of this study was to analyze the level of bread prices in the regional context, to identify trends and factors influencing them and to propose models on the basis of which it is advisable to make operational forecasts of bread prices. The study was performed on the basis of monitoring data of average consumer prices for wheat bread from first grade flour by months of 2017 and 2018 in the selected regions, Kyiv and Ukraine as a whole. The choice of areas is done due to their territorial location, and the choice of bread type – due to steady popularity among consumers. The dynamics of product prices, in particular in the regional aspect, was analyzed. The example of wheat bread made from first grade flour shows significant differences in the price level for these products by regions. Trends in price changes and their dependence on such factors as the price of flour, the price of gasoline A-95, wages have been identified. The expediency of using for the estimation of bread prices of models based on series of dynamics by exponential smoothing is shown. High accuracy of the received models is confirmed. The proposed approach in this study can be used by industry to construct models of product price forecasting as a benchmark for making management decisions about the real price. Performing these calculations online on a computer will provide businesses with particular advantages over their competitors, as well as the ability to plan their economic performance at the desired level

scholarly journals Analysis of cowpea price forecasting in Adamawa state, Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 226-231
Author(s):  
T. Joshua ◽  
J. Zalkuwi
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Critical Distance ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
State Planning ◽  
Test Analysis ◽  
Price Series ◽  
State Planning Commission ◽  
Almost All

Abstract. The study was conducted to analyze cowpea price forecasting in Adamawa State, Nigeria. The sources of data for the study were secondary data which were collected from State Planning Commission of Adamawa State for a period of 5 years (2013-2017). Purposive sampling techniques were used for selection of the study area. Dicky Fuller Test and Simple Exponential Smoothing Model were used as analytical tools. The unit root test analysis revealed almost all the markets price series were non-stationary at level except Jambutu market (AD5) at 5% significant level but became stationary after first difference. The result of Exponential Smoothing Model showed that there will be upward trend of cowpea prices in Adamawa State in February and October – November in the year 2018 and therefore, it is recommended that provision of better infrastructural facilities such as construction of accessible and motorable roads, and communication network by government and NGOs. This would reduce transfer cost which usually gets translated to the prices of the cowpeas, especially across markets in critical distance.

scholarly journals SHORT-TERM SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING BASED ON THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD

2021 ◽  
pp. 42-46
Author(s):  
ANASTASIA SERGEEVNA NADTOCHY ◽  
◽  
DMITRIY VLADIMIROVICH FOMIN ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Nuclear Physics ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Calculated Data ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Launch Vehicles ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

The paper presents information on the results of short-term space weather forecasting for the Vostochny cosmodrome based on data on the electron flux density with energies above 2 MeV received from satellites from the operator's site of the Space Weather Forecast Center of the Moscow State University Institute of Nuclear Physics. The analysis of the calculated data on the level of near-Earth radiation, as a result of the use of various extrapolation methods, showed that the method of exponential smoothing is most effective for short-term space weather forecasting. Such forecasts can be used when planning launches of launch vehicles from spaceports.

scholarly journals TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING: FORECASTING PERBANDINGAN PENUMPANG KERETA API DAN PESAWAT TERBANG

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 277
Author(s):  
Khoirin Azaro ◽  
Nur Indah Riwajanti ◽  
Anik Kusmintarti
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Efficient Planning ◽  
Exponential Method ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Airline Company

This research aims to predict the number of train and airplane passengers in 2020. Forecasting of train and airplane passengers is interest to analyze and estimate consumer demand to help the train or airline company prepare effective and efficient planning. This type of research is descriptive quantitative and uses data taken from the Indonesian Statistic Agency (BPS). Data were analyzed using Exponential smoothing Method. Train and airplane passenger data shows trend and seasonal patterns so that the exponential method used is Triple Exponential smoothing. The results of the study show that train passengers in 2020 are increase. While forecast results related to aircraft passengers in 2020 also tend to increase.

Agricultural product price forecasting methods: research advances and trend

2020 ◽  
Vol 122 (7) ◽  
pp. 2121-2138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luyao Wang ◽  
Jianying Feng ◽  
Xiaojie Sui ◽  
Xiaoquan Chu ◽  
Weisong Mu
Keyword(s):  
Future Research ◽  
Agricultural Product ◽  
Seasonal Adjustment ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Product Price ◽  
Research Directions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Main Research ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
The Future

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide reference for researchers by reviewing the research advances and trend of agricultural product price forecasting methods in recent years.Design/methodology/approachThis paper reviews the main research methods and their application of forecasting of agricultural product prices, summarizes the application examples of common forecasting methods, and prospects the future research directions.Findings1) It is the trend to use hybrid models to predict agricultural products prices in the future research; 2) the application of the prediction model based on price influencing factors should be further expanded in the future research; 3) the performance of the model should be evaluated based on DS rather than just error-based metrics in the future research; 4) seasonal adjustment models can be applied to the difficult seasonal forecasting tasks in the agriculture product prices in the future research; 5) hybrid optimization algorithm can be used to improve the prediction performance of the model in the future research.Originality/valueThe methods from this paper can provide reference for researchers, and the research trends proposed at the end of this paper can provide solutions or new research directions for relevant researchers.

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