scholarly journals Stock Valuation using Discounted Cash Flow Method with Free Cash Flow to Equity and Relative Valuation Approaches on State-Owned Banks Listed on IDX for 2021 to 2025 Period Projection

2021 ◽  
pp. 191-201
Author(s):  
Almirah Jumran ◽  
Riko Hendrawan
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Intrinsic Value ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Regulatory Capital ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Industry Growth ◽  
Valuation Method ◽  
Price Earnings Ratio ◽  
Relative Valuation

This study aims to project the intrinsic value of state-owned banks listed on IDX for the 2021 to 2025 projection. This study uses the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method with the Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) approach specifically for banks by looking at the regulatory capital. Meanwhile, it is also used the Relative Valuation method with the Price to Book Value (PBV) and Price Earnings Ratio (PER) approaches. This study uses three scenarios will be used, which consist of a pessimistic scenario (the average condition of the industry), a moderate scenario (the same condition as the company's growth), and an optimistic scenario (a condition above industry growth), which aims to project the stock value over the next five years. The data used in this study comes from historical data during the 2016 to 2020 period. Based on the results, the stock prices of state-owned banks using the FCFE method shows undervalued results for all scenarios. Meanwhile, using the relative valuation method, PBV in the optimistic scenario only shows BBNI undervalued conditions. In addition, in moderate and pessimistic scenarios, only BBRI shows overvalued conditions. Furthermore, PER shows undervalued results for all scenarios.

scholarly journals Stock Valuation in Pharmaceutical Sub-Sector Companies using the Discounted Cash Flow and Relative Valuation Methods in the 2013-2020 Period

2021 ◽  
pp. 167-176
Author(s):  
Afna Dalilah ◽  
Riko Hendrawan
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Valuation ◽  
Industry Growth ◽  
Valuation Method ◽  
Pessimistic Scenario ◽  
Relative Valuation

This research aims at calculating the fair value of shares of pharmaceutical companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The data used in this research is historical data from the 2013-2020 financial statements, which are used as the basis for projections in 2021-2025. The method used in this research is Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method with Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) approach and Relative Valuation method with Price to Earning Ratio (PER) and Price to Book Value (PBV) approaches in three scenarios. The three scenarios used are the optimistic scenario (condition above industry growth), the moderate scenario (the most likely condition for the company), and the pessimistic scenario (the average condition of the industry). The results of the research showed that by using the DCF-FCFF method, KAEF and PYFA stocks experienced overvalued conditions in all scenarios. Meanwhile, KLBF and DVLA stocks were undervalued in all scenarios. Then, from the calculation of the Relative Valuation method, each company was still within the industry range in all scenarios. Overall, KAEF stocks were overvalued by 57.817%, KLBF stocks were undervalued by 7.879%, DVLA stocks were undervalued by 370.865%, and PYFA stocks were overvalued by 16.662% both in DCF method and in Relative Valuation method.

scholarly journals Penilaian Nilai Wajar Saham Pt Ciputra Development Tbk

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheane Sheane
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Intrinsic Value ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Price Earnings Ratio ◽  
Firm Model

An investor could invest by buying companies’ stocks. Therefore, it is crucial for investors to know the fair value of shares of a company to anticipate the risks and benefits. The fair value of shares reflects the value of that company. This research is aimed to assess the fair value of shares of PT. Ciputra Development Tbk, whether its value is above or below the market price. This research was conducted using secondary data, which are the company’s prospects, yearly report, and other official publication. Quantitative analysis was chosen to process and analyse the data collected. Method used in this valuation is the Discounted Cash Flow method with Free Cash Flow to Firm model and Relative Valuation with Price Earnings Ratio model. The result of the valuation would be useful to be used as the basis for decision making on investing, whether to buy, hold or sell the stock. Based on the calculated stock value, it was obtained that the fair value of shares of PT. Ciputra Development Tbk, using discounted free cash flow to firm method, is Rp 1.092,- which means the stock price of PT. Ciptura Development Tbk is over the market price or overvalued in comparison to its intrinsic value. On the other hand, using price earning ratio as the chosen method shows that the fair value of shares is Rp. 1.262,4 per stock which means the price of PT. Ciputra Development Tbk stock is under the market price or undervalued towards its intrinsic value.

scholarly journals Does The Stock of Indonesian Provider Tower Industry Have a Fair Value?

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 130-139
Author(s):  
Saptono Saptono ◽  
Farida Titik Kristanti
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Intrinsic Value ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Valuation ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Relative Valuation

Objective - The objective of this study is to evaluate the stock intrinsic value of companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The evaluation is carried out by using a DCF method of Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) approach, and a relative method of Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) and Price to Book Value (PBV) approaches. Each approach uses three scenarios of optimism, moderation and pessimism. Methodology/Technique - The historical data of the companies between 2014 and 2017 was used to predict their performance in the period between 2018 and 2021. Findings - The results of this study indicate that by comparing the stock prices to their intrinsic value of the stock valuation of the DCF-FCFF, the stock market prices as of 1 January 2018 according to the optimistic scenario show that TBIG and SUPR were undervalued, while TOWR and IBST were overvalued. In the moderate scenario, TBIG and SUPR were undervalued, while TOWR and IBST were overvalued. Novelty - Meanwhile, TBIG, TOWR and IBST were overvalued and only SUPR was undervalued in the pessimistic scenario. Relative valuation using a PER approach in all scenarios indicates that TBIG, TOWR and IBST were overvalued and SUPR was undervalued. Finally, through a PBV approach, the relative valuation of TOWR, SUPR and IBST were overvalued and TBIG was undervalued in all scenarios. Type of Paper - Empirical. Keywords: Free Cash Flow to Firm; Relative Valuation; Tower Provider Industry; Intrinsic Value; Valuation. JEL Classification: G14, G15, G19.

scholarly journals Performance Evaluation of Stocks’ Valuation Models at MSE

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-23
Author(s):  
Zoran Ivanovski ◽  
Zoran Narasanov ◽  
Nadica Ivanovska
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Main Task ◽  
Stock Valuation ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
Relative Valuation ◽  
Dcf Model

Abstract Subject and purpose of work: The main task of this paper is to examine the proximity of valuations generated by different valuation models to stock prices in order to investigate their reliability at Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE) and to present alternative “scenario” methodology for discounted free cash flow to firm valuation. Materials and methods: By using publicly available data from MSE we are calculating stock prices with three stock valuation models: Discounted Free Cash Flow, Dividend Discount and Relative Valuation. Results: The evaluation of performance of three stock valuation models at the MSE identified that model of Price Multiplies (P/E and other profitability ratios) offer reliable stock values determination and lower level of price errors compared with the average stocks market prices. Conclusions: The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model provides values close to average market prices, while Dividend Discount (DDM) valuation model generally mispriced stocks at MSE. We suggest the use of DCF model combined with relative valuation models for accurate stocks’ values calculation at MSE.

scholarly journals The Intrinsic Value of an Enterprise Determined by Means of the FCFE Tool

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 8868
Author(s):  
Veronika Jezkova ◽  
Zuzana Rowland ◽  
Veronika Machova ◽  
Jan Hejda
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Intrinsic Value ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Enterprise Value ◽  
Future Value ◽  
Mutual Relations ◽  
Key Indicators

This paper deals with the determination of the intrinsic value of the company Seznam.cz, a.s. using discounted cash flow. Specifically, it is concerned with determining the value of the business from the perspective of the company’s shareholders. The Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) method is chosen for analysis and determination of the value. According to this method, the specific FCFE values are discovered. However, the enterprise value must also be analyzed on the basis of other key indicators, such as financial leverage, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) method, or the net present and future value of the FCFE. This is especially important so that the results can be put into mutual relations and a sufficient representative value of the FCFE results can be achieved. Input values stem from the company’s annual reports. From the results of the mentioned methods and indicators, it was found that the value of the FCFE is quite high, which means that the capital used is used appropriately. Based on the result of the continuing value of the FCFE, it can be said that the company’s intrinsic value is at a very good level.

scholarly journals Analysis of Islamic Banks’ Merger in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 112-120
Author(s):  
Fitri Mareta ◽  
Heliani Heliani ◽  
Siti Elisah ◽  
Andini Ulhaq ◽  
Indri Febriani
Keyword(s):  
Market Share ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Islamic Law ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Profit Sharing ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
The Public ◽  
Relative Valuation

Islamic bank is a bank that collects funds from the public by using system profit sharing for every profit it gets and in carrying out its activities in accordance with Islamic law. Remembering that in Indonesia most of the population is Muslim, therefore they need a bank that works in accordance with Islamic law. Considering the number of percentages of Islamic banks in Indonesia are still small and cannot yet dominate the market share, therefore this research is expected to find out whether the merging of 3 Islamic banks (BRIS, BSM and BNIS) able to control market share or not. To see the synergy resulting from this merger is used methods Discounted Cash Flow - Free Cash Flow to Equity and Relative Valuation - Price to Book Ratio. The data used are the financial statements of each bank from 2014 to 2019 which are available on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) or the websites of each bank.

scholarly journals Company Valuation of PT Perusahaan Gas Negara TBK

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fira Octaria Basri ◽  
Sylviana Maya Damayanti
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Intrinsic Value ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
The State ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Financial Report ◽  
State Revenue

More than decades, Indonesia’s economic growth depend on the oil and gas sector. In the past few years, oil and gas sector’s contribution to the state revenue decreased significantly along with the decline in reserves and production. The state revenue from the oil and gas industry decreased by almost 80 percent from Rp216 trillion in 2014 or 14 percent of state revenue to Rp44 trillion in 2016 or 2.8 percent of the state revenue. Perusahaan Gas Negara or also called as PGN is the largest national company in the natural gas transportation and distribution sector. In or der to make the business growing wider, PGN are going to acquiring Pertamina Gas or Pertagas. The acquisition is part of the establishment of the holding company in energy sector by the Ministry of State Own Enterprises, which was established on April 11, 2018. This research is made to know how the intrinsic value per share of Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) through calculating it with the discounted cash flow method using free cash flow to the firm. The data are obtained from PGN’s financial report from 2013 to 2018. The result is the intrinsic value per share of Perusahaan Gas Negara is IDR Rp6,757.72. Keywords: discounted cash flow, free cash flow to the firm, valuation.

Earnings Versus Cash Flows: The Valuation Perspective

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Megha Agarwal
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Operating Income ◽  
Valuation Method ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Price Earnings Ratio ◽  
Free Cash Flows

This paper is an effort to compare the earnings based and cash flow based methods of valuation of an enterprise. The theoretically equivalent methods based on either earnings such as Residual Earnings Model (REM), Abnormal Earnings Growth Model (AEGM), Residual Operating Income Method (ReOIM), Abnormal Operating Income Growth Model (AOIGM) and its extensions multipliers such as Price/Earnings Ratio, Price/Book Value Ratio; or cash flow based models such as Dividend Valuation Method (DVM) and Free Cash Flow method (FCFM) all provide different estimates of valuation of the Indian giant corporate Reliance India Limited (RIL). An ex-post analysis of published accounting and financial data for four financial years from 2008-09 to 2011-12 has been conducted. A comparison of these valuation estimates with the actual market capitalization of the company shows that the complex accounting based model AOIGM provides closest forecasts. These different estimates may be derived due to inconsistencies in discount rate, growth rates and the other forecasted variables. Although inputs for earnings based models may be available to the investor and analysts through published statements, precise estimation of free cash flows may be better undertaken by the internal management. The estimation of value from more stable parameters as Residual operating income and RNOA could be considered superior to the valuations from more volatile return on equity.

scholarly journals ANALISIS VALUASI HARGA WAJAR SAHAM DENGAN METODE FREE CASH FLOW TO EQUITY (FCFE) DAN METODE RELATIVE VALUATION PADA SAHAM-SAHAM IDX30 TAHUN 2012

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ria Puspitasari ◽  
Tekni Megaster
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Flow Model ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Book Value ◽  
Relative Valuation

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji relevansi penilaian harga wajar saham dengan metode Discounted Cash Flow Model (DCF) dengan pendekatan valuasi Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) dan metode relative valuation pada saham-saham yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Obyek penelitian pada karya tulis ini adalah saham-saham yang terdaftar pada IDX30. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa harga wajar saham IDX30 dengan metode relative valuation dengan pendekatan Price to Book Value (PBV) menghasilkan 6 saham perusahaan mengalami undervalued dan 24 saham mengalami overvalued dan dengan pendekatan Price Earning Ratio (PER) menghasilkan 12 saham mengalami undervalued dan 18 saham mengalami overvalued. Sedangkan dengan menggunakan metode Discounted Cash Flow Model dengan pendekatan Free Cash Flow to Equity menghasilkan 19 saham yang mengalami undervalued dan 11 saham yang mengalami overvalued.Kata Kunci : Valuasi, DCF, FCFE, Indeks IDX30, Relative valuation, Price to Book Value dan Price Earning Ratio

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