scholarly journals Bayesian Reasoning and Artificial Intelligence against COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Gr. Voskoglou ◽  
Abdel-Badeeh M. Salem
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Potential Role ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Case Based Reasoning ◽  
Bayesian Reasoning ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The article focuses on the potential role of Probability Theory and Artificial Intelligence in the battle against the pandemic of COVID-19, which, starting from China on December 2019, has created a chaos in the world economy and the lives of people, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths until now. After discussing the importance of the reproduction number Ro of the viruses, the Bayesian Probabilities are used for measuring the creditability of the diagnostic tests for the novel coronavirus. Artificial Intelligence designs are also described which are used as tools against COVID-19 and a Case-Based Reasoning expert system is proposed for the COVID-19 diagnosis.

scholarly journals Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City: China, January-February, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Mizumoto ◽  
Katsushi Kagaya ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Public Health Intervention ◽  
Ecological Modelling ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiological Parameters

AbstractBackgroundSince the first cluster of cases was identified in Wuhan City, China, in December, 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spread around the world. Despite the scarcity of publicly available data, scientists around the world have made strides in estimating the magnitude of the epidemic, the basic reproduction number, and transmission patterns. Accumulating evidence suggests that a substantial fraction of the infected individuals with the novel coronavirus show little if any symptoms, which highlights the need to reassess the transmission potential of this emerging disease. In this study, we derive estimates of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China, by reconstructing the underlying transmission dynamics using multiple data sources.MethodsWe employ statistical methods and publicly available epidemiological datasets to jointly derive estimates of transmissibility and severity associated with the novel coronavirus. For this purpose, the daily series of laboratory–confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Wuhan City together with epidemiological data of Japanese repatriated from Wuhan City on board government–chartered flights were integrated into our analysis.ResultsOur posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China in 2019–2020 reached values at 3.49 (95%CrI: 3.39–3.62) with a mean serial interval of 6.0 days, and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23rd in 2020 was associated with a significantly reduced R at 0.84 (95%CrI: 0.81–0.88), with the total number of infections (i.e. cumulative infections) estimated at 1906634 (95%CrI: 1373500–2651124) in Wuhan City, elevating the overall proportion of infected individuals to 19.1% (95%CrI: 13.5–26.6%). We also estimated the most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time–delay adjusted IFR at 0.04% (95% CrI: 0.03%–0.06%) and 0.12% (95%CrI: 0.08–0.17%), respectively, estimates that are several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR estimated at 4.06%ConclusionsWe have estimated key epidemiological parameters of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China during January-February, 2020 using an ecological modelling approach. The power of this approach lies in the ability to infer epidemiological parameters with quantified uncertainty from partial observations collected by surveillance systems.

scholarly journals Role of Flavonoids against COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-55
Author(s):  
Ambreen Fatima ◽  
Yasir H. Siddique
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Strategy ◽  
Protective Role ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Promoting ◽  
Ancient Times ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Old Drugs

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has entered a threatening stage all over the world. Many lives have been lost, and many more are in need of treatment. The mild symptoms may include fever and dry cough, but in severe cases, it could lead to pneumonia and ultimately death in some instances. Though medical scientists all over the globe are working hard to develop a treatment for this disease, yet no definite cure has been found. To date, the treatment strategy is based on adopting strategies to break the transmission of the virus and repurposing of the old drugs to prevent the loss of life. Among the various potent candidates, flavonoids may play a protective role in these times. Studies have already proven various health-promoting properties of flavonoids in earlier viral diseases, like SARS and MERS. Since ancient times, been plants have used to treat a number of human diseases. Different phytoproducts have been previously described to inhibit the replication of numerous viruses. Despite the positive reports for plant-based medications, no successful clinical trials on phytoproducts as anti-COVID agents have been conducted to date. This review highlights the efficacy of flavonoids as a treatment strategy either alone or in combination with other drugs.

scholarly journals Analysis of the stochastic model for predicting the novel coronavirus disease

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ndolane Sene
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Stochastic Perturbations ◽  
Numerical Investigations ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to predict the novel coronavirus. Due to the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus disease in the world, we add to the deterministic model of the coronavirus the terms of the stochastic perturbations. In other words, we consider in this paper a stochastic model to predict the novel coronavirus. The equilibrium points of the deterministic model have been determined, and the reproduction number of our deterministic model has been implemented. The asymptotic behaviors of the solutions of the stochastic model around the equilibrium points have been studied. The numerical investigations and the graphical representations obtained with the novel stochastic model are made using the classical stochastic numerical scheme.

scholarly journals Flow in the Time of COVID-19: Findings from China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kate Sweeny ◽  
Kyla Rankin ◽  
Xiaorong Cheng ◽  
Lulu Hou ◽  
Fangfang Long ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Online Survey ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Coping Resources ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

In February 2020, the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) was raging in Wuhan, China and quickly spreading to the rest of the world. This period was fraught with uncertainty for those in the affected areas. The present investigation examined the role of two potential coping resources during this stressful period of uncertainty: flow and mindfulness. Participants in Wuhan and other major cities affected by COVID-19 (N = 5115) completed an online survey assessing experiences of flow, mindfulness, and well-being. Longer quarantine was associated with poorer well-being; flow and mindfulness predicted better well-being on some measures. However, flow—but not mindfulness—moderated the link between quarantine length and well-being, such that people who experienced high levels flow showed little or no association between quarantine length and poorer well-being. These findings suggest that engaging in flow-inducing activities may be a particularly effective way to protect against the deleterious effects of a period of quarantine.

Impact of Corona virus Outbreak on Climate and air Quality

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikita Jatai ◽  
Tanu Sharma ◽  
Karan Veer
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome ◽  
Distress Syndrome ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Symptomatic Case ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

All over the world, there is a new target of public health emergency looming the world along with an appearance and distribution of the novel coronavirus disease (2019-nCoV) also known as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This Virus initially generated in bats and then after transferred to a human being over unknown animal playing the role of mediator in Wuhan, China in December 2019. This virus is passed by breathing or in contact with an infected person’s droplets. The Incubation period is between 2 to 14 days for COVID-19, that is the time between exposure of the virus (person becoming infected) and symptom on that person, is on an average of 5-6 days, however it can goes up to 14 days. Throughout this period, which can be also known as “pre-symptomatic” period, some of the infected patients or persons can be contagious. That is why, transferal from a pre-symptomatic case can happen before the symptoms onset. Where there is few number of case studies and reports, pre-symptomatic transferal has been documented via contact with someone who is diagnosed with virus and increase investigation of that particular clusters of total confirmed cases. The main problem is that the symptoms are just like the regular flu that are cough, fever, sore throat, fatigue and breathlessness. This virus is moderate or mild in most of the people, but in elder ones, it may proceed to pneumonia, multi-organ dysfunction and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). Coronavirus has significant consequences on the Health system, mainly on cardiovascular diseases and on the environment.

scholarly journals Roles of meteorological conditions in COVID-19 transmission on a worldwide scale

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biqing Chen ◽  
Hao Liang ◽  
Xiaomin Yuan ◽  
Yingying Hu ◽  
Miao Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Meteorological Variables ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Meteorological Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractThe novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 has caused great damage to public health and economy worldwide with over 140,000 infected cases up to date. Previous research has suggested an involvement of meteorological conditions in the spread of droplet-mediated viral diseases, such as influenza. However, as for the recent novel coronavirus, few studies have discussed systematically about the role of daily weather in the epidemic transmission of the virus. Here, we examine the relationships of meteorological variables with the severity of the outbreak on a worldwide scale. The confirmed case counts, which indicates the severity of COVID-19 spread, and four meteorological variables, i.e., air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and visibility, were collected daily between January 20 and March 11 (52 days) for 430 cities and districts all over China, 21 cities/provinces in Italy, 21 cities/provinces in Japan, and 51 other countries around the world. Four different time delays of weather (on the day, 3 days ago, 7 days ago, and 14 days ago) as to the epidemic situation were taken for modeling and we finally chose the weather two weeks ago to model against the daily epidemic situation as its correlated with the outbreak best. Taken Chinese cities as a discovery dataset, it was suggested that temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity combined together could best predict the epidemic situation. The meteorological model could well predict the outbreak around the world with a high correlation (r2>0.6) with the real data. Using this model, we further predicted the possible epidemic situation in the future 12 days in several high-latitude cities with potential outbreak. This model could provide more information for government’s future decisions on COVID-19 outbreak control.

scholarly journals Modeling and Simulation: A study on predicting the outbreak of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Msmali ◽  
Zico Mutum ◽  
Idir Mechai ◽  
Abdullah Ahmadini
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Final Phase ◽  
The World ◽  
Logistic Growth Model ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiological Trends

AbstractThe novel coronavirus (Covid-19) infection has resulted in an ongoing pandemic affecting health system and economy of more than 200 countries around the world. Mathematical models are used to predict the biological and epidemiological trends of an epidemic and develop methods for controlling it. In this work, we use mathematical model perspective to study the role of behavior change in slowing the spread of the COVID-19 disease in Saudi Arabia. The real-time updated data from 1st May 2020 to 8th January 2021 is collected from Saudi Ministry of Health, aiming to provide dynamic behaviors of the pandemic in Saudi Arabia. During this period, it has infected 297,205 people, resulting in 6124 deaths with the mortality rate 2.06 %. There is weak positive relationship between the spread of the infection and mortality (R2 =0.412). We use Susceptible-Exposed-Infection-Recovered (SEIR) mode, the logistic growth model and with special focus on the exposed, infection and recovery individuals to simulate the final phase of the outbreak. The results indicate that social distancing, good hygienic conditions, and travel limitation are the crucial measures to prevent further spreading of the epidemic.

scholarly journals COVID-19 AND TOURISM

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 788-804
Author(s):  
Mehtab Alam ◽  
◽  
Rizwana Parveen ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
First Aid ◽  
International Travel ◽  
World Population ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wild Fire ◽  
The World ◽  
To Come ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Entire Planet

With the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), the whole world has been in a total shutdown. It came out as a challenge to just not some specific countries of continents, but to the entire planet. With no preparation for such type of pandemic and the time and effort required to come up with a fully functional and tested vaccine, the planet went down on its knees. Non pharmaceutical methods were the first aid for the outbreak. Unprecedented country wide lockdowns, stay at home decisions, closure of global as well as local travel, closure of public gatherings greatly disrupted the world economy. International travel bans were the first to be practiced which roughly affected 100% of the world population. With restrictions on public gatherings and movement of people, tourism came to a stand-still in March-April 2020. By this time, COVID-19 had reached most of the countries and the virus was spreading like wild fire.

scholarly journals MANAGEMENT OF DIABETES WITH COVID-19: A REVIEW

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
RITU KUMARI ◽  
JAGJIT KAUR ◽  
SADIQUE HUSSAIN
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Chain Reaction ◽  
Severe Condition ◽  
The World ◽  
Viral Illness ◽  
Polymerase Chain ◽  
Results Management ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Objective: As of now, the world is struggling with a serious pandemic of disease 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19), which was emerged from Wuhan in China, originated by the novel coronavirus 2019 (SARS-CoV-2). COVID-19 is a viral illness, which is occurring on a large scale in every nation of the globe. Symptoms of coronavirus mainly include fever, fatigue, cough, headache, pneumonia and in severe condition, there is respiratory distress. The deadly virus alarmed the world to be on high alert as the number of rising cases and the death toll rising as the day passes. Methods: We have searched for articles of preference and interest systematically in sources like Google Scholar, PubMed, and other outlets. Results: Management in the case of diabetes is really necessary to decrease their mortality. Certain management parameters need to be followed to take care of patients suffering from both diseases. Conclusion: In this review, we highlighted the role of different medicines like chloroquine, lopinavir, and hydroxychloroquine for the remedy of this pandemic. We also discussed the chest Computed tomography functions and Real-time polymerase chain reaction for the screening of the outbreak. The center of attention of this review majorly on the care of diabetes throughout the time of the COVID-19 epidemic.

scholarly journals Role of Vyadhikshamatva (Immunity) in COVID19

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mayur D. Patel ◽  
Archana Gharge
Keyword(s):  
Supportive Care ◽  
Viral Infections ◽  
Antiviral Agent ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Research Papers ◽  
Secondary Infections ◽  
The World ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Objective: The world was confronted with an illness 'COVID-19', caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-cov-2. This novel coronavirus is highly contagious and in just a few months has become a serious threat to human health all over the world. The mainstay in the management of corona viral infections has been supportive care, nutrition, and preventing secondary infections in the absence of any antiviral agent or vaccine. The best way of preventing COVID-19 infection is by enhancing an individual's body immunity. Hence the main objective of this study is to bring forward to the concept of immunity in Ayurveda for preventing COVID-19.  Data Source: Different Ayurvedic Samhitas and textbooks, modern medical books, research papers in different journals and internet sources were referred to understand the concept of ojas, immunity and COVID-19 Review Methods: To compile the available literature on immunity and COVID-19. To compile the importance of ojas and vyadhikshamatva. To compile the importance of the Ayurvedic concept of immunity in the prevention of COVID-19.  Results and Conclusion: The best way of preventing COVID-19 infection is by enhancing an individual's body immunity. Ojas is considered responsible for Vyadhikshamatva (immunity). An adequate exposition of the concept of ojas concerning immunity is essential during this COVID-19 pandemic.

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